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Below our estimates; volumes fall 20% YoY to 297.2k units

3W volumes grew 4% YoY

Wholesale volumes declined by 20% YoY to 297.2k units (est. 342.6k units).

Domestic volumes declined by 36% YoY to 126.75k units (est. 127.4k units).

Motorcycle volumes declined by 22% YoY to 256.3k units (est. 299k units). Domestic Motorcycle volumes declined by 41% YoY to 107.1k units.

Motorcycle export volumes were flat YoY at 149.2k units.

We estimate Motorcycle volumes to grow by ~10% in FY23.

3W volumes grew by 4% YoY to 40.9k units (est. 43.5k units). Domestic volumes grew by 15% YoY to 19.7k units. Exports declined by 4% YoY to 21.2k units. We estimate 3W volumes to grow by ~22% YoY in FY23.

In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Mr. Rakesh Sharma, Executive Director, BJAUT, said, “The overall demand scenario at the Retail level in Motorcycles in India is still soft due to the double-digit (~13%) decline in 4QFY22, as per the Vahan data.”

On 3W sales volumes in Mar’22, he said, “The 3W business has turned in a very good performance in Mar’22 and in 4QFY22, with industry retails coming back due to increased mobility, and the market share climbing up to ~70% in 3Ws. We are very well poised in this relatively better profitability segment to reap the benefits of the industry coming back.”

On semiconductor shortages, he said, “The decline, which we faced in Mar’22, is almost entirely due to shortfalls on the semiconductor front. It hit us by 30-40% percent. The situation became quite acute in Mar’22.”

The stock trades at 20x/17.1x FY23E/FY24E consolidated EPS. We maintain our Neutral rating

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