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Gold
Gold yesterday settled down by -0.29% at 58640 as dollar eased from a 12-week high as investors weighed U.S. Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on interest rates against the darkening economic outlook. Two Fed officials gave the market confidence that the Fed is nearing the end of its rate hiking cycle. On Friday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that rates may rise further but the Fed will "tread carefully." Comments from two Fed officials earlier on Thursday suggested that the Fed may be close to being done with interest-rate increases. Incremental rate hikes may be required but we may be very near a place where we can hold for a substantial amount of time, Boston Fed president Susan Collins said. Separately, Philadelphia Fed president Patrick Harker indicated that the Fed should keep interest rates at the current level while it assesses the impact on the economy. Central bank gold buying in H1 reached a first-half record of 387t. Buying activity remains widespread and distributed among both emerging and developed countries. China's net gold imports via Hong Kong fell by about 26% in July from the previous month, Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department data showed. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a remain unchanged in open interest by 0% to settle at 12533 while prices are down -171 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 58465 and below same could see a test of 58285 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 58850, a move above could see prices testing 59055.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 58525-59185.
* Gold gains on Fed cues, dollar retreat amid economic uncertainty.
* Fed Powell's cautious stance and Fed officials hint at rate cycle's end.
* ECB stresses restrictive policy; UK rates to peak at 5.5%. Central banks' strong gold buying persists.


Silver
Silver yesterday settled down by -0.03% at 73549 as investors awaited the release of pivotal economic data this week to corroborate the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory. During the recent Jackson Hole Symposium, Fed Chair Jerome Powell left the door open for potential further rate increases to temper persistently elevated inflation. He emphasized the remarkable resilience of the US economy while also advocating for prudence in future actions. This week, a series of economic indicators, including the US non-farm payroll report, are expected to offer a more distinct insight into the economy's robustness. Philadelphia Fed president Patrick Harker indicated that the Fed should keep interest rates at the current level while it assesses the impact on the economy. Futures imply around an 80 percent chance of a steady outcome at the Sept. 20 meeting, but a 58 percent probability of a hike by year end. Elsewhere in Europe, ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized that policy needed to be restrictive. U.K. interest rates are expected to peak at 5.5 percent next month as Bank of England policymakers try to minimize the impact of higher borrowing costs on the housing market. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a remain unchanged in open interest by 0% to settle at 7052 while prices are down -19 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 73005 and below same could see a test of 72465 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 74055, a move above could see prices testing 74565.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 72880-74190.
* Silver steady, awaiting pivotal data on Fed's interest rate course.
* Powell's remarks signal potential rate hikes for persistent inflation management.
* Investors eye US data, non-farm payroll report for economic insight.


Crudeoil
Crudeoil yesterday settled down by -0.26% at 6503 as the dollar slid from a 12-week high on improved risk sentiment in financial markets. Overall gains remained limited as prospects of easing sanctions on Iran and Venezuela offset the narrative of tightening supply. Oil prices received some support after China announced new steps to bolster its flagging economy and struggling stock market, helping to alleviate fuel demand concerns. China approved the launch of 37 retail funds over the weekend and also halved the stamp duty on stock trading in the latest attempt to boost struggling markets. The new measures to woo investors came as data showed China's industrial profits extended a slump into a seventh month. Meanwhile, there are reports of the U.S. and Iran holding talks to revive the nuclear deal. Speculation is also rife that the U.S. could ease sanctions on Venezuela in a bid to boost supply. Also, concerns about China's economic outlook counterbalanced the effects of supply reductions from OPEC+ members such as Saudi Arabia and Russia. On the monetary policy front, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflation remains too high and that the central bank is prepared to raise rates further if appropriate. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a remain unchanged in open interest by 0% to settle at 5823 while prices are down -17 rupees, now Crudeoil is getting support at 6429 and below same could see a test of 6355 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6616, a move above could see prices testing 6729.

Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6534-6722.
* Crude oil gains as dollar falls from 12-week peak, driven by risk sentiment.
* China's economic measures ease demand worries; concerns on Iran, Venezuela persist.
* Reports of U.S.-Iran talks, easing Venezuela sanctions impact prices.


Natural gas
Naturalgas yesterday settled down by -0.09% at 220.2 on prospects of higher demand and lower output. That price increase came even though the heat wave blanketing much of the country for the past few weeks eased and with a major hurricane expected to hit Florida on Wednesday. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the lower 48 U.S. states eased to 101.7 bcfd so far in August, down from 101.8 bcfd in July. That compares with a monthly record of 102.2 bcfd in May. Despite a seasonal cooling, meteorologists forecast the weather in the lower 48 U.S. states will remain mostly hotter than normal through at least Sept. 12. Meteorologists forecast that hotter-than-usual weather will persist through early September, prompting investors to anticipate higher consumption. Also, output eased to 101.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in August, down from 101.8 bcfd in July and a monthly record of 102.2 bcfd in May. On the other hand, the flow of gas to US LNG export plants has diminished in August, primarily due to reduced operations at Cheniere Energy's Sabine Pass in Louisiana and Corpus Christi in Texas. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a remain unchanged in open interest by 0% to settle at 32384 while prices are down -0.2 rupees, now Naturalgas is getting support at 216.3 and below same could see a test of 212.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 222.9, a move above could see prices testing 225.6.

Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 211.5-239.5.
* Natural gas rose on prospects of higher demand and lower output.
* Lower output at 101.7 bcfd in August vs. 101.8 bcfd in July.
* Meteorologists predict above-average temps till early Sept.



Copper
Copper yesterday settled down by -0.05% at 731.4 buoyed by China's latest move to support its ailing stock market, even as a firm U.S. dollar amid prospects of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve weighed on sentiment. China halved the stamp duty on stock trading effective Monday in the latest attempt to boost its struggling market. The post-pandemic recovery has faltered in the world's second-biggest economy, with industrial profit declining for a seventh consecutive month. Also weighing on copper prices, the dollar held firm amid worries of more interest rate rises. A stronger dollar makes the greenback-priced commodity less attractive for buyers holding other currencies. Prices of copper, often seen as an economic bellwether, paused its rally after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank might need to raise interest rates further to ensure inflation was contained. China's copper cathode output in July was 925,900 mt, an increase of 8,000 mt or 0.9% month-on-month, and a growth of 10.2% year-on-year; The output increased 23,800 mt compared with the expected 902,100 mt. The output totalled 6.49 million mt from January to July, an increase of 639,300 mt or 10.94% year on year. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a remain unchanged in open interest by 0% to settle at 5387 while prices are down -0.4 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 728.4 and below same could see a test of 725.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 735.8, a move above could see prices testing 740.1.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 729.2-737.2.
* Copper rises buoyed by China's latest move to support its ailing stock market
* China halves stock trading duty, battling recovery struggles.
* China's July copper output surpasses estimates.


Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.14% at 215.05 driven by policy measures aimed at supporting China's wavering economic recovery, coupled with indications of increasing demand from the Chinese market. Beijing's authorization for 12 provinces and regions to issue 1.5 trillion yuan of special financing bonds is poised to enhance funding for construction and infrastructure ventures. Moreover, the interest rate reductions orchestrated by the People's Bank of China, coupled with a gradual revival of domestic demand, have also provided some support. Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 20.2% to a seven-month low. data shows that social inventories of zinc ingots across seven major markets in China totalled 81,500 mt as of Friday August 25, down 17,800 mt from Friday August 18 and down 12,300 mt from Monday August 21. The global zinc market surplus increased to 76,000 metric tons in June, up from 67,000 tons a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. During the first six months of the year, the global surplus was 370,000 metric tons compared to a surplus of 241,000 tons in the same period last year. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a remain unchanged in open interest by 0% to settle at 3807 while prices are up 0.3 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 214 and below same could see a test of 212.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 216.3, a move above could see prices testing 217.5.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 214.9-216.9.
* Zinc gains driven by China's economic support and rising demand.
* Bonds issuance, rate cuts boost construction and domestic revival.
* SHFE zinc inventories dip by 20.2%, signal strong demand shift.


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.18% at 198.1 amid efforts by Beijing to support the currency through swaps by state-owned banks in offshore markets to suck out yuan and raise the cost of shorting the currency. The PBOC lowered its one-year loan prime rate by 10 basis points to a record low of 3.45% on August 21, but kept the five-year loan prime rate unchanged at 4.2%. The central bank also slashed its seven-day reverse repo and one-year medium-term lending facility rates earlier this month. Moreover, heightened economic uncertainties and a deepening property sector crisis in China, as well as a widening interest rate differential weighed further on the yuan. China reported profits at China's industrial firms fell 6.7% in July from a year earlier, slumping for a seventh consecutive month due to persistently weak demand. According to statistics, China's domestic aluminum output in July 2023 (spanning 31 days) amounted to 3.568 million mt, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.95%. The average daily production in July experienced a month-on-month surge of over 3,000 mt, reaching approximately 115,100 mt. From January to July, the total domestic aluminum production tallied up to 23.676 million mt, marking a year-on-year cumulative growth of 2.7%. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a remain unchanged in open interest by 0% to settle at 4256 while prices are down -0.35 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 197.5 and below same could see a test of 196.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 199.4, a move above could see prices testing 200.5.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 198.2-199.2.
* Aluminium gains as Beijing bolsters yuan via state banks' offshore swaps.
* China's July aluminium production up 1.95% YoY at 3.568 million mt.
* Jan-Jul aluminium output grows 2.7% YoY to 23.676 million mt.

Cottoncandy

Cottoncandy yesterday settled down by -0.17% at 59080 after reports In Gujarat, sowing grows by nearly 5% with 2,679,299.00 hectares against sown area of 2021 which was 2,545,105.00 hectares. However downside seen limited amid fears of lower production. India’s Cotton sowing dropped by nearly -1.82% to 122.56 lakh hectares in 2023 against an area sown of 124.82 lakh hectares in 2022. Cotton arrivals so far during the current season that started in October last year has crossed 318 lakh bales according to data available with the Cotton Corporation of India, said the Southern India Mills’ Association (SIMA). Arrivals in Punjab have been recorded at almost one-third of the previous year, 2021-22. In Punjab the arrival of cotton in the 2022-23 marketing season has been recorded at 8.7 lakh quintal till date this year, while it was 28.89 lakh quintal for the entire 2021-22 season. India is set for its lowest monsoon rains in eight years, with El Niño weather expected to cut September precipitation. This could make essentials like sugar, pulses, rice, and vegetables more expensive and raise food inflation. The monsoon, vital for India's economy, provides 70% of the rain needed for crop watering and irrigation. The September rainfall deficit could make essentials more expensive and raise food inflation. In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 28787.5 Rupees dropped by -0.1 percent. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 9.09% to settle at 60 while prices are down -100 rupees, now Cottoncandy is getting support at 58420 and below same could see a test of 57770 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 59660, a move above could see prices testing 60250.

Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 57770-60250.
* Cotton dropped after reports In Gujarat, sowing grows by nearly 5% with 2,679,299.00 hectares.
* However downside seen limited amid fears of lower production.
* Cotton arrivals so far during the current season that started in October last year has crossed 318 lakh bales
* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 28787.5 Rupees dropped by -0.1 percent.


Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled down by -6% at 15204 on profit booking amid subdued domestic demand at prevailing levels. Export enquires has been sluggish that is likely to weigh on market sentiments. Export demand has slowed down with sharp rise in prices. Ongoing sowing and crop progress is major price driver for turmeric and forecast of drier weather in southern and central region has added worries to turmeric crops that will cap the losses. The looming threat of El Nino casts a shadow over the upcoming turmeric crop. Meteorological predictions suggest the activation of El Nino in July, potentially resulting in reduced rainfall and drought conditions. Such conditions could particularly impact yields, like turmeric, that heavily rely on monsoon irrigation. Farmers shift in focus has led to expectations of a 20-25 percent decrease in turmeric sowing this year, notably in states like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana. Turmeric exports during Apr-Jun 2023, rose by 16.87 percent at 57,775.30 tonnes as compared to 49,435.38 tonnes exported during Apr- Jun 2022. India is set for its lowest monsoon rains in eight years, with El Niño weather expected to cut September precipitation. This could make essentials like sugar, pulses, rice, and vegetables more expensive and raise food inflation. The monsoon, vital for India's economy, provides 70% of the rain needed for crop watering and irrigation. The September rainfall deficit could make essentials more expensive and raise food inflation. In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14302.6 Rupees dropped by -2.25 percent. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.34% to settle at 15875 while prices are down -970 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 14754 and below same could see a test of 14306 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 16100, a move above could see prices testing 16998.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14306-16998.
* Turmeric dropped on profit booking amid subdued domestic demand at prevailing levels.
* India exported only 18.3 thousand tonnes in June’23 as compared to 18.5 thousand tonnes of previous year.
* Domestic demand remained subdued as most of the arrivals arrived are inferior quality that will keep profit booking intact in turmeric.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14302.6 Rupees dropped by -2.25 percent.


Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled down by -1.14% at 55365 in wake of improved global supply condition. However, downside seen limited as supply is limited due to the rainy environment. Cheaper availability of Syria and jeera in global market will lead to fall in export demand from India in coming days. Drier weather condition in Gujarat will also lead to rise in arrivals that will cap the upwards move. China’s cumin imports and exports have caused temporary corrections in cumin prices, with a recent $200 decrease in the international market. The possibility of China purchasing Indian cumin in October-November before the arrival of new cumin adds further uncertainty to the market dynamics. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. Jeera exports during Apr-Jun 2023, rose by 13.16 percent at 53,399.65 tonnes as compared to 47,190.98 tonnes exported during Apr- Jun 2022. In Jun 2023 around 10,411.14 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 25,903.63 tonnes in May 2023 showing a drop of 59.81%. In Jun 2023 around 10,411.14 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 21,587.63 tonnes in Jun 2022 showing a drop of 51.78%. India is set for its lowest monsoon rains in eight years, with El Niño weather expected to cut September precipitation. This could make essentials like sugar, pulses, rice, and vegetables more expensive and raise food inflation. The monsoon, vital for India's economy, provides 70% of the rain needed for crop watering and irrigation. The September rainfall deficit could make essentials more expensive and raise food inflation. In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 57625.5 Rupees dropped by -0.69 percent. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.76% to settle at 6246 while prices are down -640 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 54720 and below same could see a test of 54060 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 56440, a move above could see prices testing 57500.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 54060-57500.
* Jeera prices dropped in wake of improved global supply condition.
* Cheaper availability of Syria and jeera in global market will lead to fall in export demand from India in coming days.
* However, downside seen limited as supply is limited due to the rainy environment.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 57625.5 Rupees dropped by -0.69 percent.

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