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Gold

Gold yesterday settled Flat at 50187 dragged down by haven demand for the dollar amid concerns that tightening monetary conditions would tilt the global economy into a recession. The metal is on track to decline for the sixth straight month as the US Federal Reserve led a global wave of interest rate hikes to curb surging inflation, denting the appeal of non-yielding bullion. Investors also continued to prefer the dollar over gold as a safe store of value amid heightened economic uncertainties given the US economy strength relative to other developed nations. The Bank of England said it would purchase bonds in a bid to stabilize its financial markets, sending the dollar and global bond yields lower while pushing the metal higher. The lack of clear progress on inflation means the Federal Reserve needs "moderately restrictive" interest rates that should reach a level between 4.25% and 4.50% by the end of this year, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said. "Inflation is still high ... and it is not moving with enough speed back down to our 2% target," Bostic said in a conference call from Atlanta, adding that his baseline outlook is for the U.S. central bank to hike rates by three-quarters of a percentage point at its November policy meeting and by half a percentage point at the December gathering. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 1.38% to settle at 17510 while prices are remain unchanged 2 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 49948 and below same could see a test of 49709 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 50359, a move above could see prices testing 50531.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 49709-50531.
* Gold prices eased dragged down by haven demand for the dollar amid concerns that tightening monetary conditions would tilt the global economy into a recession.
* Fed's Bullard: We are at a higher risk of recession, but that is not the base case at this time.
* Fed's Bostic backs 75 – basis – point hike in November, smaller rise in December

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.65% at 56160 as the dollar resumed its ascent after a brief dip in the previous session, with looming rate hikes still a headwind for the non-yielding bullion. Several Fed officials reiterated the U.S. central bank's commitment to raise interest rates aggressively to battle surging inflation. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell to a five-month low last week as the labor market remains resilient despite rising headwinds from the Federal Reserve's stiff interest rate increases and slowing demand. The weekly unemployment claims report from the Labor Department, the most timely data on the economy's health, also showed jobless rolls shrinking to their lowest level in just over two months in mid-September. That raises the risk that the unemployment rate will drop this month, keeping the Fed on its aggressive monetary policy tightening path. The Fed bank last week raised its policy interest rate by 75 basis points, its third straight increase of that magnitude, and signaled more large increases to come this year. Since March, the Fed has hiked its policy rate from near zero to the current range of 3.00% to 3.25%. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 5.79% to settle at 19232 while prices are down -368 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 55746 and below same could see a test of 55333 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 56526, a move above could see prices testing 56893.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 55333-56893.
* Silver prices fell as the dollar resumed its ascent with looming rate hikes still a headwind for the non-yielding bullion.
* Weekly jobless claims drop 16,000 to 193,000
* Continuing claims decrease 29,000 to 1.347 million

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 0.22% at 6700 on reports indicating the OPEC+, are considering reducing output at a meeting next week helped. Leading members of OPEC+ have begun discussions about an oil output cut when they meet on Oct. 5. Russia is likely to propose that OPEC+ reduce oil output by about 1 million barrels per day (bpd). Hurricane Ian also provided price support. About 157,706 bpd of oil production was shut down in the Gulf of Mexico, according to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement. Goldman Sachs cut its 2023 oil price forecast, citing expectations of weaker demand and a stronger U.S. dollar, but said global supply disappointments reinforced its long-term bullish outlook. U.S. crude and fuels stocks posted surprising declines in the most recent week as fuel demand rose and refiners cut runs, the Energy Information Administration said. Crude inventories fell by 215,000 barrels in the week to Sept. 23 to 430.6 million barrels, compared with expectations in a poll for a 443,000-barrel rise. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.78% to settle at 5643 while prices are up 15 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6602 and below same could see a test of 6505 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6801, a move above could see prices testing 6903.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6505-6903.
* Crude oil gains on reports indicating the OPEC+, are considering reducing output at a meeting next week helped.
* Leading members of OPEC+ have begun discussions about an oil output cut when they meet on Oct. 5
* U.S. crude, fuel stocks fall in most recent week – EIA

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 0.64% at 567.9 on some buying support after prices seen pressure on a bigger-than-expected storage build and after Hurricane Ian knocked out power to over 2.5 million customers in Florida, reducing the amount of gas needed to produce electricity. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 103 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended Sept. 23. That was much bigger than the 94-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 77 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2017-2021) average increase of 86 bcf. Wind power produced about 10% of the nation's electricity last week, up from as little as 6% earlier in the month, according to federal energy data. In its latest advisory, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said Ian, now a tropical storm, was expected to produce life-threatening flooding, storm surge and gusty winds across portions of Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas as it heads north. Also weighing on gas prices, demand was expected to decline in October when the Cove Point LNG plant in Maryland shuts for a couple weeks of maintenance. Cove Point consumes about 0.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -4.57% to settle at 6060 while prices are up 3.6 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 545.8 and below same could see a test of 523.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 588.2, a move above could see prices testing 608.4.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 523.6-608.4.
* Natural gas recovered on some buying support after prices seen pressure on a bigger-than-expected storage build.
* EIA said utilities added 103 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended Sept. 23.
* Demand would fall further in October when the Cove Point liquefied natural gas plant in Maryland shuts down for maintenance.

Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.97% at 647.75 amid concerns of potential shortages resulting from lower inventories. China's bonded warehouse copper inventories were at their lowest on record of 81,800 tonnes. ShFE copper stocks were down 78% since March, while COMEX copper inventories dropped to their lowest since July 2021. However, there have been some deliveries into LME copper warehouses. The overall outlook for metals demand globally remained grim, as central banks around the world tightened their monetary policy to curb rising inflation. China's current account surplus was revised to USD 77.5 billion in the second quarter of 2022, from a preliminary estimate of USD 80.2 billion and compared with a surplus of USD 45.5 billion in the same period of the previous year. Considering the first half of the year, China recorded a current account surplus of USD 166.4 billion. The global refined copper market showed a 30,000 tonne deficit in July, compared with a 105,000 tonne deficit in June, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. For the first 7 months of the year, the market was in a 126,000 tonne deficit compared with a 183,000 tonne deficit in the same period a year earlier, the ICSG said. World refined copper output in July was 2.13 million tonnes, while consumption was 2.16 million tonnes. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -6.4% to settle at 4914 while prices are up 6.25 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 637 and below same could see a test of 626.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 655.3, a move above could see prices testing 662.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 626.1-662.7.
* Copper prices gains amid concerns of potential shortages resulting from lower inventories.
* ShFE copper stocks were down 78% since March, while COMEX copper inventories dropped to their lowest since July 2021.
* China Q2 current account surplus revised lower

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 1.3% at 269.85 amid growing concerns about tight supplies after the London Metal Exchange signaled that it is taking steps towards a potential ban on new supplies of Russian metal. China's central bank said it will step up efforts to consolidate economic recovery, which still faces some downward pressures. China's economy continues to recover, but it faces pressures from shrinking demand, supply shocks and weakening expectations, the People's Bank of China said in a statement after a quarterly meeting of its monetary policy committee. Considering the low social inventory as well as improving market sentiment ahead of the National Day holiday, zinc price will gain support. The global zinc market moved to a deficit of 72,800 tonnes in July from a surplus of 34,600 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a deficit of 1,400 tonnes in June. During the first seven months of 2022, ILZSG data showed a surplus of 83,000 tonnes versus a deficit of 23,000 tonnes in the same period of 2021. The U.S. durable goods orders in August fell for the second consecutive month, the largest decline since this February. The manufacturing data in recent weeks suggest that the U.S. economy is losing momentum, pressuring US dollar. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -10.56% to settle at 1703 while prices are up 3.45 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 263.5 and below same could see a test of 257 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 274.7, a move above could see prices testing 279.4.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 257-279.4.
* Zinc rose amid growing concerns about tight supplies after LME to consult on possible ban of Russian metal.
* China's central bank to step up efforts to support economic recovery
* China's State banks have been told to stock up for yuan intervention offshore

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 2.73% at 195.7 after rumours that the production reduction by aluminium smelters in Yunnan will expand again. The accident at the Nord Stream pipeline will make it difficult for short-term European energy prices to drop, fuelling a new round of bullish sentiment. According to customs data, China's aluminium plate/sheet and strip exports in August 2022 were 288,500 mt, down 21% on the month but up 11% on the year. The exports totalled 2.5908 million mt from January to August, up 41% year on year. The overseas demand for China’s aluminium plate/sheet and strip may increase, boosting the export of aluminium plate/sheet and strip. Aluminum futures were still down 40% from their March peak as fears of a demand-sapping global recession and a stronger dollar continued to hang over the market. Concerns about an economic and manufacturing slowdown have taken a front seat as increasingly hawkish central banks have dented demand for industrial metals. China's central bank said it will step up efforts to consolidate economic recovery, which still faces some downward pressures. China's economy continues to recover, but it faces pressures from shrinking demand, supply shocks and weakening expectations, the People's Bank of China said in a statement after a quarterly meeting of its monetary policy committee. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.33% to settle at 4535 while prices are up 5.2 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 189.5 and below same could see a test of 183.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 201.8, a move above could see prices testing 208.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 183.4-208.
* Aluminum rallied after rumours that the production reduction by aluminium smelters in Yunnan will expand again.
* Norsk Hydro cuts aluminium output
* The accident at the Nord Stream pipeline will make it difficult for short-term European energy prices to drop, fuelling a new round of bullish sentiment.

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.44% at 994.5 as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. However, upside seen limited amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year we forecast production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. Mentha exports during Apr-July 2022 has dropped by 19.63 percent at 648.49 tonnes as compared to 806.87 tonnes exported during Apr-July 2021. In the month of July 2022 around 155.04 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 113.33 tonnes in June 2022 showing a rise of 36.80. In the month of July 2022 around 155.04 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 283.33 tonnes in July 2021 showing a decline of over 45.28%. In the month of June 2022 around 113.33 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 209.90 tonnes in May 2022 showing a drop of 46%. In Spot market, support seen after IMD issues Yellow Alert in key sowing area ; light-moderate rain to continue till Sept 4 impacting arrival in the mandi. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -2.5 Rupees to end at 1135.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.41% to settle at 1467 while prices are down -4.4 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 989.8 and below same could see a test of 985 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 999.7, a move above could see prices testing 1004.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 985-1004.8.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -2.5 Rupees to end at 1135.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil dropped as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.
* However, upside seen limited amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic.
* In the month of July 2022 around 155.04 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 113.33 tonnes in June 2022 showing a rise of 36.80.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.09% at 6822 on some low level buying after pressure seen as sowing activities has almost completed in major growing states across India and Crop size is expected to be on par. The Product Advisory Committee (PAC) on turmeric has rejected calls for banning futures trade in the commodity, claiming that it has not found any unusual movement in its price. As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, sowing activity completed around 7,958 hectares as compared to last year same period 7,764 hectares. Sufficient stocks and good sowing reports kept turmeric prices under pressure. Turmeric exports during Apr-July 2022 has rose by 17.72 percent at 62,245.73 tonnes as compared to 52,875.44 tonnes exported during Apr-July 2021. In the month of July 2022 around 12,810.36 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 18,532.00 tonnes in June 2022 showing a drop of 30.87%. In the month of July 2022 around 12,810.36 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,826.38 tonnes in July 2021 showing a decrease of 0.12%. In the month of June 2022 around 17,532.00 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 13,206 tonnes in June 2021 showing an increase of 40.33%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7077 Rupees dropped -33.6 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -5.57% to settle at 10760 while prices are up 6 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6722 and below same could see a test of 6620 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6892, a move above could see prices testing 6960.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6620-6960.
* Turmeric gained on some low level buying after pressure seen as sowing activities has almost completed and Crop size is expected to be on par.
* In the ongoing season, no major quality concerns were observed in the crop arrived in the Marathwada region.
* In the month of July 2022 around 12,810.36 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 18,532.00 tonnes in June 2022 showing a drop of 30.87%.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7077 Rupees dropped -33.6 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.06% at 24420 as prices recovered from lows as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks in expectations of higher prices in coming months. Arrivals also observed to be less during the month. Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month supported by decrease in arrivals in Rajasthan as well as in Gujarat. Jeera exports during Apr-July 2022 has dropped by 37.28 percent at 67,057.16 tonnes as compared to 1,06 ,929.72 tonnes exported during Apr-July 2021. In the month of July 2022 around 19,866.18 tonnes jeera was exported as against 21,587.63 tonnes in June 2022 showing a drop of 7.97%. In the month of July 2022 around 19,866.18 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 24,167.64 tonnes in June 2021 showing a decrease of 17.80%. In the month of June 2022 around 21,587.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 30,989.86 tonnes in June 2021 showing a decrease of 30.34%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -67.65 Rupees to end at 24393.3 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.87% to settle at 6933 while prices are up 15 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 24220 and below same could see a test of 24015 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 24550, a move above could see prices testing 24675.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 24015-24675.
* Jeera prices recovered from lows as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks
* Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -67.65 Rupees to end at 24393.3 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -1.44% at 30790 as Cotton output is expected to rebound from last years’ experience of unseasonal rain affecting the crop. Production this year is seen at 341.9 lakh bales (170 kg) against 312.03 lakh bales last year. Pakistan’s cotton production has shrunk 19% to 2.19 million bales till September 15, 2022 in the current season mainly due to the devastation caused by heavy rainfall and flash floods nationwide. In Gujarat, new cotton arrival increased, and daily arrival reached 6,000 bales of 170 kg. Ginning mills have started buying seed cotton with the advent of the auspicious festival of Navratri. However, spinning mills are cautious as they expect a downward trend in cotton prices during peak arrival. In its monthly supply-demand report, the 2022/23 U.S. cotton projections include higher beginning stocks, production, exports and ending stocks this month, the USDA's report said. Additionally, the 2022/23 world cotton projections include higher production and ending stocks relative to last month, and lower consumption. In recent time, the heavy rainfalls and pest attacks are affecting the cotton crop. In the northern states of Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan cotton crop has been affected due to pink bollworm infestation. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -480 Rupees to end at 33980 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.33% to settle at 958 while prices are down -450 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 30460 and below same could see a test of 30140 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 31170, a move above could see prices testing 31560.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 30140-31560.
* Cotton prices dropped as traders weighed prospects of lower demand and higher supplies.
* In Gujarat, new cotton arrival increased, and daily arrival reached 6,000 bales of 170 kg.
* Spinning mills are cautious as they expect a downward trend in cotton prices during peak arrival.
* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -480 Rupees to end at 33980 Rupees.

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