IGI Logo

Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.24% at 47889 following data showing U.S. consumer prices rose by the most in 13 years last month, though an advancing dollar kept the metal confined to a tight range. U.S. consumer prices increased by the most in 13 years in June amid supply constraints and a continued rebound in the costs of travel-related services from pandemic-depressed levels as the economic recovery gathered momentum.

With used cars and trucks accounting for more than one-third of the surge in prices reported by the Labor Department, economists continued to believe that higher inflation was transitory. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly stated similar views, noting that he expected supply chains to normalize and adapt. Consumers also paid more for food, gasoline, rents and apparel last month. In the 12 months through June, the CPI jumped 5.4%.

That was the largest gain since August 2008 and followed a 5.0% increase in May. St. Louis Federal Reserve bank President James Bullard says the time is right to reduce the pace of central bank's bond purchases. "We do want to do it gently and carefully, but I think we're in a very good position to start a taper. I don't need to get going tomorrow, but I think we're in very good shape for this,” Bullard told.

Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.48% to settled at 8297 while prices up 115 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 47713 and below same could see a test of 47536 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 48069, a move above could see prices testing 48248.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 47536-48248.
* Gold edged higher following data showing U.S. consumer prices rose by the most in 13 years last month
* Fed's Bullard says time is right to reduce central bank's bond buying
* U.S. CPI rose by the most in 13 years last month

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.42% at 69081 as the dollar index returned to 3-month highs and Treasury yields edged up after the US inflation print was hotter than expected in June. The Fed has been reiterating that a spike in CPI is likely to be temporary but investors worry the inflation may rise even further, leading the Fed to tighten policy sooner than expected.

Investors now await Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday. Fresh economic data to be released during the week including producer inflation, retail sales and industrial production will also provide more clues on the economic strength. Reports from around the globe of surging infections of the Delta coronavirus variant also hurt investors' appetite for riskier assets. Any signs that inflation could be more persistent than previously thought could fan expectations that the Fed may exit from current pandemic-era stimulus earlier, supporting the dollar against other major currencies.

Shortages of materials and "difficulties in hiring" are holding back the U.S. economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic and have driven a "transitory" bout of inflation, the Federal Reserve said. "Progress on vaccinations has led to a reopening of the economy and strong economic growth," the U.S. central bank said in its semiannual report to Congress on the state of the economy.

Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.01% to settled at 10961 while prices down -294 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 68774 and below same could see a test of 68466 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 69517, a move above could see prices testing 69952.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 68466-69952.
* Silver dropped as the dollar index returned to 3-month highs and Treasury yields edged up after the US inflation print was hotter than expected in June.
* The Fed has been reiterating that a spike in CPI is likely to be temporary but investors worry the inflation may rise even further.
* Investors now await Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday.

Crude oil 

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 2.02% at 5609 as tight supply and expectations of a further draw in U.S. and global crude inventories provided support, although fears over the spreading COVID-19 variant capped gains. Crude stockpiles have declined steadily for several weeks, with U.S. inventories falling to the lowest since February 2020 in the week to July 2. China’s crude oil imports in the first half fell 3% over a year earlier, the first contraction for the period since 2013, as an import quota shortage, refinery maintenance and rising global prices curbed buying.

Imports totalled 40.14 million tonnes last month, data released by the General Administration of Customs showed, equivalent to 9.77 million barrels per day (bpd). That compared with 9.65 million bpd in May and a record 12.9 million bpd in June 2020 when refiners snapped up cheap oil to supply a Chinese market fast recovering from the coronavirus. For the first half of 2021, imports into the world’s top crude oil importer totalled 260.66 million tonnes, 3% lower than a year earlier. Bumper purchases led by independent refineries bolstered imports in the first quarter, which grew 9.5% over the same period of 2020.

Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 28.44% to settled at 5938 while prices up 111 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5532 and below same could see a test of 5456 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5657, a move above could see prices testing 5706.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5456-5706.
* Crude oil edged up as tight supply and expectations of a further draw in U.S. and global crude inventories provided support
* U.S. shale oil output seen to rise 42,000 bpd in August -EIA
* China Jan-June crude imports fall, first H1 drop since 2013

Natural gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -1.04% at 275.2 on forecasts for less hot temperatures that would reduce gas usage for air conditioning, although losses were capped by lower production estimates. Refinitiv projects 223 cooling degree days (CDDs) over the next two weeks, slightly lower than Monday's forecast. CDDs are used to estimate demand to cool homes and businesses, and measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is above 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius).

Data provider Refinitiv said U.S. output in the Lower 48 states slipped to 91.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July due mostly to pipeline problems in West Virginia earlier in the month. That compares with an average of 92.2 bcfd in June and an all-time high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would rise from 90.9 bcfd this week to 93.4 bcfd next week as the weather turns seasonally hotter.

Those forecasts, however, were lower than what Refinitiv projected on Friday. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants averaged 10.9 bcfd so far in July, up from 10.1 bcfd in June but still below the record 11.5 bcfd in April. U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico, meanwhile, averaged 6.6 bcfd so far in July, down from a record 6.8 bcfd in June.

Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.42% to settled at 14813 while prices down -2.9 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 273 and below same could see a test of 270.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 278.7, a move above could see prices testing 282.2.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 270.8-282.2.
* Natural gas dipped on forecasts for less hot temperatures that would reduce gas usage for air conditioning.
* Although losses were capped by lower production estimates
* Data provider Refinitiv said U.S. output in the Lower 48 states slipped to 91.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July
 

Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.41% at 725.8 as falling imports by top consumer China and climbing inventories raised worries about demand while a stronger dollar also weighed. China's copper imports fell for a third straight month in June, customs data showed, as high prices and sluggish manufacturing growth weighed on demand in the world's top consumer of the metal. Imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 428,438 tonnes last month, the General Administration of Customs said.

That was down 3.9% from 445,725 tonnes in May and down 34.7% from 656,483 tonnes in June 2020, then a monthly record. In the first half of 2021, copper imports were 2.79 million tonnes, down 1.6% on the year, customs said. Last year's run of bumper shipments began in June as Chinese demand rebounded strongly from the pandemic, sending copper prices in Shanghai well above those of London and opening an arbitrage play favouring imports.

Spot treatment charges (TCs) for copper concentrate in China were assessed at their highest in almost six months after a smelter in the country's eastern Shandong province suffered an equipment breakdown.

TCs, which smelters receive to process copper concentrate into refined metal, were languishing at decade lows in April amid tight supply. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 12.32% to settled at 4121 while prices down -3 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 720.5 and below same could see a test of 715.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 731.3, a move above could see prices testing 736.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 715.2-736.8.
* Copper fell as falling imports by top consumer China and climbing inventories raised worries about demand while a stronger dollar also weighed.
* China's June copper imports fall for third month, hit by high prices
* China copper treatment charges near six-month high on smelter outage

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.29% at 240.05 as under the influence of the off-season, the consumption of downstream sections showed a downward trend. New York Fed stated that the mid-value of the one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.8% in June from the 4.0% in May, hitting a record high since 2013, which indicated the more uncertainty in the inflation results. James Bullard, chairman of St Louis Fed, supports to implement the interest hike in late 2022, as he believes it is the time to tighten the Fed stimulus policies.

It drove up US dollars, and the market was dominated by sentiments. On the other hand, People’s Bank of China (PBOC) stated that the Fed policy shift had relatively little impact on Chinese financial market. PBOC will carry out international macro policy coordination centered around Chinese market to improve the international economic recovery.

U.S. consumer prices increased by the most in 13 years in June amid supply constraints and a continued rebound in the costs of travel-related services from pandemic-depressed levels as the economic recovery gathered momentum. With used cars and trucks accounting for more than one-third of the surge in prices reported by the Labor Department, economists continued to believe that higher inflation was transitory.

Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.96% to settled at 1649 while prices down -0.7 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 238.4 and below same could see a test of 236.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 241.6, a move above could see prices testing 243.2.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 236.8-243.2.
* Zinc prices dropped as under the influence of the off-season, the consumption of downstream sections showed a downward trend
* PBOC stated that the Fed policy shift had relatively little impact on Chinese financial market.
* U.S. consumer prices post largest gain in 13 years

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled up by 0.44% at 1405 after China's refined nickel output in June rose 14.8% from the previous month as top producer Jinchuan Group completed maintenance. Output of nickel cathodes totalled 14,257 tonnes, down 5.6% year on year, said Antaike, the research arm of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association. In the first half of 2021, total nickel cathode production fell 4.4% year on year at 79,400 tonnes, which sees output in the second half reaching 88,000 tonnes.

According to the survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the median one-year inflation forecast in June rose from 4.0% in May to 4.8%, the highest since the forecast was launched in 2013, and the uncertainty of future inflation results increased in the short term. As soon as the news came out, the strength of the US dollar dragged down the overall decline of metals.

China’s exports grew at a much faster than expected pace in June as virus outbreaks and port delays were eclipsed by solid global demand thanks to easing lockdown measures and vaccination drives worldwide. Imports growth also beat expectations, though the pace eased from May, with the values boosted by high raw material prices, customs data showed.

Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.78% to settled at 2448 while prices up 6.1 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1391 and below same could see a test of 1377.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1414.8, a move above could see prices testing 1424.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1377.1-1424.7.
* Nickel prices gains after China's June refined nickel output rises 14.8% m/m
* In the first half of 2021, total nickel cathode production fell 4.4% year on year at 79,400 tonnes
* China's June exports growth beats f'cast as easing global lockdowns boost demand
 

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.6% at 199.65 as China’s exports grew much faster than expected in June as solid global demand thanks to vaccination programmes worldwide and reduced lockdown measures eclipsed coronavirus outbreaks and port delays while imports also beat expectations. U.S. consumer prices rose by the most in 13 years in June amid supply constraints and a continued rebound in the cost of travel-related services from pandemic-depressed levels as the economic recovery gathers momentum.

The data has raised expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve could tighen monetary policy sooner rather than later, which boosted the dollar. Social inventories of aluminum ingots continued to decrease, but the consumption of profiles in construction and other sectors weakened, and the aluminium billet stocks continued to pile up. The European Central Bank said that it would continue to maintain a loose monetary policy in the future, and the People's Bank of China decided to cut the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage point on July 15, 2021, thus maintaining ample liquidity worldwide.

Domestic aluminium output rose slowly in July, and the overall fundamentals showed a decline in aluminium price support. China produced 3.22 million mt of aluminium in June, up 7.09% on the year. The daily output averaged 107,200 mt, up 300 mt/day on the month.

Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.13% to settled at 2620 while prices up 1.2 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 198.1 and below same could see a test of 196.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 200.9, a move above could see prices testing 202.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 196.4-202.
* Aluminium prices gained as China’s exports grew much faster than expected in June
* U.S. consumer prices rose by the most in 13 years in June amid supply constraints
* Social inventories of aluminum ingots continued to decrease, but the consumption of profiles in construction and other sectors weakened

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -2.44% at 973.9 as average yield in Barabanki is improved by 5-6 kgs per acre due to better weather. Support also seen due to the rotting of the crop due to stagnant water in the field. The past few weeks have been painful as heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season have damaged the mentha crop which was ready for harvesting. Due to drowning in the water, the rows have started to wither.

With the harvesting of the crop, oil extraction work has also started. However upside seen limited as arrivals likely to increase due to favourable weather conditions. Daily arrivals should gradually pick up to 400-500 drums in next 7-10 days. Last week, prices rallied. The Lucknow-based Central Institute of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants estimates that this adverse effect of rains on the crop is expected to reduce production by 30% in the last two weeks.

The crop is prone to rain because the leaves of the crop start falling due to waterlogging in the field. Most of the farmers have planted Mentha crops and this rain is not less than acid for 50 percent of Mentha crop. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -33.2 Rupees to end at 1056.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.

Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.21% to settled at 989 while prices down -24.4 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 962.8 and below same could see a test of 951.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 987.6, a move above could see prices testing 1001.2.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 951.6-1001.2.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -33.2 Rupees to end at 1056.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices dropped as average yield in Barabanki improved
* Prices gained in recent sessions due to the rotting of the crop due to stagnant water in the field.
* The past few weeks have been painful as heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season have damaged the mentha crop which was ready for harvesting.

Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 0.51% at 7528 as planting of overall oilseeds, including soybean was at 11.2 million hectares, down from 12.6 million hectares the previous year. A “break” in the monsoon has affected Kharif sowing in many parts of the country this year. However, area under soybean planting is likely to increase by 5-7% across the country this kharif season despite speculation in the market over the shortage of seeds.

Farmers, however, are keeping their fingers crossed due to the break in monsoon and hope for a revival of the monsoon to ensure a good crop. In the 2020 kharif season, soybean cultivation took place on 120 lakh hectares and the yield was about 105 lakh tonne. China's soybean imports in June hit their third-highest monthly level on record, customs data showed, boosted by a jump in shipments from Brazil.

China, the world's top buyer of the oilseed, took 10.72 million tonnes in June, slightly below a record 11.16 million tonnes in the corresponding month a year earlier, the data showed, as Brazilian soybean cargoes cleared customs.

The imports were up 11.6% from 9.61 million tonnes in May, data from the General Administration of Customs showed. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 82 Rupees to 7736 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.38% to settled at 34725 while prices up 38 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 7410 and below same could see a test of 7292 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7647, a move above could see prices testing 7766.

Trading Ideas:
* Soyabean trading range for the day is 7292-7766.
* Soyabean gained as planting of overall oilseeds, including soybean was at 11.2 mln hec, down from 12.6 mln hec the previous year.
* There has been shortage of certified seeds and they have been selling at high prices, but farmers have prepared their own seeds.
* China's June soybean imports hit third highest monthly level
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  82 Rupees to 7736 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Soya Oil

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 1.61% at 1330.1 as China raised its forecast on imports of edible oils in 2020/21 marketing year, on increase of palm oil and sunflower oil shipments, the country's agriculture ministry said. China's 2020/21 edible oils imports were seen at 10.23 million tonnes, up 900,000 tonnes from last month's forecast, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said in its monthly crop report.

Estimates on output, planting acreage and imports of corn, soybeans and cotton in the 2021/22 year remain unchanged from a month ago, according to the ministry. China's soybean acreage in 2021/22 year was seen at 9.347 million hectares, down 5.4% from 9.882 million hectares in the previous year, according to the report. India has slashed the base import price of palm oil and soyoil, the government said in a statement, as prices fell in the overseas market.

India exported 5.31 lakh tonnes of oilmeals in the first two months of the fiscal 2021-22 against 3.50 lakh tonnes in the same period a year ago, recording a growth of 52 per cent. BV Mehta, Executive Director of Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA), said the export of oilmeals increased sharply on the back of shipments of rapeseed meal during the period. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1337.05 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.78% to settled at 33540 while prices up 21.1 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1305 and below same could see a test of 1280 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1344, a move above could see prices testing 1358.

Trading Ideas:
* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1280-1358.
* Ref soyoil prices gained as China raised its forecast on imports of edible oils in 2020/21 marketing year
* China's 2020/21 edible oils imports were seen at 10.23 million tonnes, up 900,000 tonnes from last month's forecast
* India exported 5.31 lakh tonnes of oilmeals in the first two months of the fiscal 2021-22 against 3.50 lakh tonnes in the same period a year ago
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1337.05 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 1.26% at 1059.4 tracking firmness in Malaysian prices as an uptick in July 1-10 exports aided sentiment. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for July 1-10 rose between 2% and 4% from the same period in June, cargo surveyors said, beating market expectations of a decline in shipments. Malaysia's end-June palm oil stocks rose 2.82% from the previous month to 1.61 million tonnes, data from industry regulator Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) showed.

Crude palm oil production gained 2.21% from May to 1.61 million tonnes, while palm oil exports jumped 11.84% to 1.42 million tonnes, MPOB said. India's demand for Malaysian crude palm oil and Indonesian palm olein has been strong, but it is likely to subside at current price levels and the market will reverse very quickly. Indian buyers have contracted up to 70,000 tonnes of refined bleached deodorized palm oil, mostly from Indonesia, to be shipped in July and August.

Malaysia's palm oil inventories at the end of June likely hit a nine-month high as production jumped, although a rebound in exports kept supply tight. India declared that the import of refined palm oil is amended from 'Restricted' to 'Free', allowing imports of the product for six months. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 5.2 Rupees to end at 1056.2 Rupees.

Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.49% to settled at 4971 while prices up 13.2 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1046.4 and below same could see a test of 1033.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1066.8, a move above could see prices testing 1074.1.

Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 1033.3-1074.1.
* Crude palm oil gains tracking firmness in Malaysian prices as an uptick in July 1-10 exports aided sentiment.
* Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for July 1-10 rose between 2% and 4% from the same period in June, cargo surveyors said
* Malaysia end June palm oil stocks rose 2.8% to 1.61 mln T - MPOB
* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 5.2 Rupees to end at 1056.2 Rupees.

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 2.25% at 7121 as the arrival of mustard in the mandis has decreased at all places in the country. U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield. Pressure also seen as Canada rapeseed production is projected at 20.5 million tons, up 1.5 million on greater area.

U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield. Pressure also seen as Canada rapeseed production is projected at 20.5 million tons, up 1.5 million on greater area. COOIT was against any reduction in import duties on edible oils but wanted the Centre to remove the GST of 5 per cent on mustard seed and oil as it will help farmers and consumers both.

European Union rapeseed production is projected to show a modest gain in 2021/22 on increased planted area and improved yield but will remain below the levels observed from 2016 to 2018. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 14.75 Rupees to end at 7236.75 Rupees per 100 kg.

Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.68% to settled at 48170 while prices up 157 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 7008 and below same could see a test of 6894 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7198, a move above could see prices testing 7274.

Trading Ideas:
* Rmseed trading range for the day is 6894-7274.
* Mustard seed prices gained tracking firmness in overseas prices as drought continued across the Canadian Prairies, threatening crop yields.
* The arrival of mustard in the mandis has decreased at all places in the country.
* U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield.
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 14.75 Rupees to end at 7236.75 Rupees per 100 kg.

 

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 1.78% at 7312 on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. However upside seen limited as sentiment is weak and sluggish demand from local stockists amid poor quality arrivals in the market has led to the fall in prices. The curbs and lockdowns announced to control the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic affected trading.

In Nizamabad APMC in Telangana, the modal price of the finger variety turmeric was quoted at ₹6,950 a quintal. Prices are up about ₹400 since the beginning of this month. At Bangalore in Karnataka, turmeric is quoted at ₹11,500 at the APMC yard with most markets closed in the State to control the Covid-19 pandemic. In Tamil Nadu, too, the agricultural markets are closed as part of the lockdown to tackle the pandemic.

Demand for exports to Bangladesh and Europe are helping turmeric prices to gain. Exporters are looking to pick up stocks from Nanded in view of its quality. Turmeric has been in demand over the last two years as it is reported to be effective in medical use, particularly in combating Covid-19. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7255.95 Rupees gained 18.45 Rupees.

Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.67% to settled at 11300 while prices up 128 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7184 and below same could see a test of 7058 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7392, a move above could see prices testing 7474.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7058-7474.
* Turmeric prices gained on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh.
* However upside seen limited as sentiment is weak and sluggish demand from local stockists amid poor quality arrivals in the market has led to the fall in prices.
* The curbs and lockdowns announced to control the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic affected trading.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7255.95 Rupees gained 18.45 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.27% at 13160 amid excess supply and as demand is likely to remain subdued on weak buying from local and overseas markets. Farmers need money to start sowing the kharif crop and they are bringing huge stocks to sell in the market after the easing of Covid-related restrictions. In the benchmark market Unjha, 7,000 bags (1 bag = 55 kg) arrived yesterday as against 10,000 bags.

As India struggles against curbing the Corona pandemic, exports markets have turned subdued. The importers prefer to wait for the situation to normalize before negotiating for fresh deals. They rather prefer to clear their older stocks first and presently they feel that the older inventory may be sufficient to balance the existing demand for next few weeks easily.

The new season arrivals shall continue with good numbers hence there will be ample availability in the market. However from a broader perspective, India’s exports outlook has brightened while crop is expected to be lower versus year on year. Also, the nearest export competitors i.e. Turkey and Syria may not supply much to the world due to lower exportable surplus. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -69.45 Rupees to end at 13405.55 Rupees per 100 kg.

Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.3% to settled at while prices down -35 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13110 and below same could see a test of 13055 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13210, a move above could see prices testing 13255.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 13055-13255.
* Jeera settled down amid excess supply and as demand is likely to remain subdued on weak buying
* Farmers need money to start sowing the kharif crop and they are bringing huge stocks to sell in the market after the easing of Covid-related restrictions.
* As India struggles against curbing the Corona pandemic, exports markets have turned subdued.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -69.45 Rupees to end at 13405.55 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton 

Cotton yesterday settled remain unchangeby 0% at 25190 as India’s cotton ending stocks could be lower than 75 lakh bales (170 kg each) in the current season to September as domestic demand has picked up. But some estimates are pegging them higher than 100 lakh bales against a record 120-plus lakh bales last season.

CCI, which had nearly 207 lakh bales of cotton stocks, could be left with 18 lakh bales by the end of the season, the CMD said, adding that most of the sales were meant for domestic consumption. Some trade experts expect mills’ consumption to top 300 lakh bales, though Southern India Mills Association (SIMA) Secretary-General K Selvaraju said the shutdown due to Covid pandemic could lower the offtake below CCPC projections.

The Cotton Association of India (CAI), the apex body of cotton traders, pegged domestic consumption at 325 lakh bales at its meeting last month, with mills’ demand pegged at 282 lakh bales. The other reason for lower ending stocks this season is export demand. Currently, 67 lakh bales of cotton have been exported. CCI said cotton exports would exceed 70 lakh bales and the current shipments were competitive globally. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -30 Rupees to end at 25250 Rupees.

Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.98% to settled at 4556 while prices remain unchanged 0 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 25140 and below same could see a test of 25080 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 25250, a move above could see prices testing 25300.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 25080-25300.
* Cotton prices steadied as India’s cotton ending stocks could be lower than 75 lakh bales in the current season as domestic demand has picked up
* CCI said cotton exports would exceed 70 lakh bales and the current shipments were competitive globally.
* CAI pegged domestic consumption at 325 lakh bales at its meeting last month, with mills’ demand pegged at 282 lakh bales.
* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 40 Rupees to end at 25320 Rupees.

Chana

Chana yesterday settled up by 0.37% at 4832 on short covering as several market committees of Maharashtra have stopped purchase and sale of commodities in protest against the government imposing stock limits on pulses. Transactions at Latur, Amravati, Akola, Washim, Khamgaon and other major market committees in the Vidarbha and Marathwada regions have been hit as traders have stopped buying agricultural commodities indefinitely since Monday.

The Govt imposed stock limits on all pulses except moong for wholesalers, retailers, millers and importers, to bring down the prices of these items, which have risen in retail markets since March. According to the order issued by the food ministry, valid until October 31, wholesalers can keep with them maximum 200 tonne of all pulses, including not more than 100 tonne in one variety.

The stock limit for retailers has been fixed at 5 tonne. For millers, the limit is total production during last three months or 25% of annual installed capacity, whichever is higher. Importers are allowed to keep maximum 200 tonne of all pulses, including not more than 100 tonne in one variety (same as for wholesalers), for stocks held/imported before 15th May. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -31.15 Rupees to end at 4709.25 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.65% to settled at 118830 while prices up 18 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4779 and below same could see a test of 4725 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4878, a move above could see prices testing 4923.

Trading Ideas:
* Chana trading range for the day is 4725-4923.
* Chana gained on short covering as several market committees of Maharashtra have stopped purchase and sale of commodities in protest
* Wholesalers can keep with them maximum 200 tonne of all pulses, including not more than 100 tonne in one variety.
* Importers are allowed to keep maximum 200 tonne of all pulses, including not more than 100 tonne in one variety
* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped  by -31.15 Rupees to end at 4709.25 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views. Click Here For Disclaimer