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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.19% at 44879 as a dollar weakened after data showed US inflation rate rose 0.4% from the previous month, easing concerns that it would pick up too fast. On top of that, the passage of Joe Biden’s $1.9tn coronavirus relief package lent further optimism to the gold bulls. The European Central Bank left key interest rates at record-low levels during its March meeting, and signaled an increase in purchases under its pandemic emergency programme over the next quarter, aiming to bring government bond yields down and to support the Eurozone economic recovery. The U.S. House of Representatives gave final approval to one of the largest economic stimulus measures in American history, a sweeping $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief bill that gives President Joe Biden his first major victory in office. The measure provides $400 billion for $1,400 direct payments to most Americans, $350 billion in aid to state and local governments, an expansion of the child tax credit and increased funding for vaccine distribution. Forecasters expect it to supercharge the U.S. economic recovery. “Help is here,” Biden wrote in a tweet after the vote. The White House said he plans to sign the bill on Friday. Approval by a 220-211 vote in the Democratic-controlled chamber came with zero Republican support after weeks of partisan debate and wrangling in Congress. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.07% to settled at 10751 while prices up 87 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 44713 and below same could see a test of 44547 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 45106, a move above could see prices testing 45333.       

Trading Ideas:            

*  Gold trading range for the day is 44547-45333.

*  Gold rose as a dollar weakened after data showed US inflation rate rose 0.4% from the previous month, easing concerns that it would pick up too fast.

 * The passage of Joe Biden’s $1.9tn coronavirus relief package lent further optimism to the gold bulls.

*  ECB to boost emergency bond buys to bring yields down

 Silver       

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.1% at 67545 as dollar retreated after the U.S. House of Representatives passed the $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package. U.S. Treasury yields continued to move lower after the release of weaker-than-expected inflation data and a successful auction of benchmark 10-year notes. The OECD revised its 2021 global growth projection to 5.6% from 4.2% as vaccine rollout is gaining momentum and government stimulus, particularly in the US, is likely to provide a major boost to economic activity. The US economy is seen growing 6.5% in 2021, higher than 3.2% in the previous outlook while the Chinese economy is seen expanding 7.8%, slightly less than 8% earlier. The Eurozone should expand 3.9%, up from 3.6%, mostly due to upward revisions to Germany and Spain while France and Italy are likely to grow less. The European Central Bank left monetary policy unchanged but said it would conduct emergency bond purchases at a significantly higher pace over the next quarter, aiming to curb rising bond yields and support the bloc's economy. The euro has been recently under pressure as investors continue to monitor the slow pace of COVID-19 vaccination in the EU and its impact on Europe's economic recovery. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.47% to settled at 11974 while prices up 70 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 66999 and below same could see a test of 66452 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 68096, a move above could see prices testing 68646.     

Trading Ideas:            

* Silver trading range for the day is 66452-68646.

* Silver prices dropped as dollar retreated after the U.S. House of Representatives passed the $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package.

* U.S. Treasury yields continued to move lower after the release of weaker-than-expected inflation data and a successful auction of benchmark 10-year notes.

*  OECD revises up its 2021 growth outlook

Crude oil    

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 3.25% at 4796 as vaccine rollouts and passing of the U.S. President Joe Biden's landmark $1.9trn stimulus package bolstered the economic outlook. U.S. crude oil production is expected to fall by 160,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2021 to 11.15 million bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said, a smaller decline than its previous monthly forecast for a 290,000-bpd drop. The agency said it expects U.S. petroleum and other liquid fuel consumption to rise 1.41 million bpd to 19.53 million bpd in 2021, the same increase as its previous forecast. U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose sharply in the most recent week, citing data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute. Crude inventories rose by 12.8 million barrels in the week to March 5, compared with expectations in a poll for a build of 816,000 barrels, sources said. Gasoline stocks fell by 8.5 million barrels, compared with expectations for a draw of 3.5 million barrels. Distillate fuel inventories, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 4.8 million barrels, versus expectations for a draw of 3.5 million barrels. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub rose by 295,000 barrels. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 14.48% to settled at 4111 while prices up 151 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4739 and below same could see a test of 4681 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4829, a move above could see prices testing 4861.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4681-4861.

* Crude oil prices gained as vaccine rollouts and passing of the U.S. President Joe Biden's landmark $1.9trn stimulus package bolstered the economic outlook.

* U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose sharply in the most recent week – API

* U.S. crude output in 2021 to decline less than previously forecast –EIA

Nat.Gas  

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -0.87% at 193.8 on a smaller than expected storage draw last week despite forecasts for slightly cooler weather in late March. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said U.S. utilities pulled just 52 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the milder-than-normal week ended March 5. Last week's decrease cut stockpiles to 1.793 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or 7.3% below the five-year average of 1.934 tcf for this time of year. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 90.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up sharply from the 28-month low of 86.5 bcfd in February when extreme weather froze gas wells and pipes in Texas, but lower than the all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would slide from 103.8 bcfd this week to 103.0 bcfd next week as the weather turns seasonally milder. That is similar to Refinitiv's forecasts on Wednesday. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants, meanwhile, averaged 10.2 bcfd so far in March. That compares with a four-month low of 8.5 bcfd in February as extreme cold cut power and gas supplies to the facilities, and a monthly record high of 10.7 bcfd in December. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.99% to settled at 9166 while prices down -1.7 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 191.5 and below same could see a test of 189.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 197, a move above could see prices testing 200.1. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 189.1-200.1.

* Natural gas eased on a smaller than expected storage draw last week despite forecasts for slightly cooler weather in late March.

* The U.S. EIA said U.S. utilities pulled just 52 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the milder-than-normal week ended March 5.

* Speculators cut their net long positions on the NYMEX and Intercontinental Exchanges for a second week in a row last week for the first time since December.

Copper       

Copper yesterday settled up by 1.94% at 684.1 as the United States moved to pass a $1.9-trillion stimulus bill, while a potential strike in top producer Chile threatened supply. However, there were worries over possible tightening liquidity in China rose after the world's second biggest economy set a modest annual growth target. Workers at Antofagasta's Los Pelambres copper mine in Chile voted to reject the company's latest contract offer, paving the way for a strike. Of the union affiliates, 98.5% voted to reject the offer on a new contract for the next 36 months. Peru's Energy and Mines Minister Jaime Galvez said he expected the Andean nation to hit a record copper output of 2.5 million tonnnes in 2021, well over the 2.15 million tonnes produced in 2020. Shanghai Dalu Futures, the Chinese brokerage that built up bullish bets worth more than $1 billion on copper prices in just a few days last month, cut its long position on the May Shanghai copper contract by almost 25%, bourse data show. China's copper imports rose 4.7% for the first two months of 2021 from a year earlier, customs data showed, indicating stronger demand for the metal than in a pandemic-depressed early 2020 despite a recent spike in prices. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.11% to settled at 3249 while prices up 13 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 678.3 and below same could see a test of 672.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 687.4, a move above could see prices testing 690.7. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Copper trading range for the day is 672.5-690.7.

* Copper prices rose as the United States moved to pass a $1.9-trillion stimulus bill, while a potential strike in top producer Chile threatened supply.

* Workers at Antofagasta's Los Pelambres copper mine in Chile reject contract offer

* Peru's copper output could hit a record 2.5 million tonnes this year, its mining minister said

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 2.61% at 217.8 as market sentiment boosted after the US stimulus bill with a scale of 1.9 trillion US dollars was passed by Congress, and Biden plans to sign it on Friday. refined zinc output at smelters declined 71,100 mt to 471,200 mt in February. Refined zinc output is expected to increase 45,800 mt to 517,000 mt in March amid production resumption and rising working days. Smelters mainly consumed raw materials inventories in February while raw material inventory days decreased by 4.39 days to 22.58 days from the previous month. The current difficulty in ore restocking has caused some smelters to decrease their output from the previous month, especially Shaanxi and Yunnan. It is expected that the US$ 1.9 trillion stimulus bill will be signed as soon as possible this week. The progress of end-user resumption of work will be monitored in the near term. China's factory gate prices rose at the fastest pace since November 2018 in February, official data showed, underscoring expectations for robust growth in 2021 as the world's second-largest economy gathers momentum. The producer price index (PPI) rose 1.7% from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.12% to settled at 1848 while prices up 5.55 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 215.5 and below same could see a test of 213.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 219.2, a move above could see prices testing 220.6. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Zinc trading range for the day is 213.2-220.6.

* Zinc prices gained as market sentiment boosted after the US stimulus bill with a scale of 1.9 trillion US dollars was passed by Congress

* Refined zinc output at smelters declined 71,100 mt to 471,200 mt in February.

* Refined zinc output is expected to increase 45,800 mt to 517,000 mt in March amid production resumption and rising working days.

Nickel   

Nickel yesterday settled up by 1.15% at 1181.3 as investors proved optimistic on expectations of a strong US economic recovery after the Congress passed a $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package. Nickel prices dropped as pressure continued as consumer price index in China dropped by 0.2% yoy year in February 2021, after a 0.3% fall a month earlier and compared with market consensus of a 0.4% decline. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 0.6% in February, the third straight month of gains, after a 1% rise in January. China's producer prices rose by 1.7% yoy in February 2021, accelerating from a 0.3% gain a month earlier and above market estimates of a 1.5% rise. This was the second straight month of increase in factory gate prices and the steepest pace since November 2018, amid further signs of domestic economic recovery from the COVID-19 shocks. China's factory gate prices rose at the fastest pace since November 2018 in February, official data showed, underscoring expectations for robust growth in 2021 as the world's second-largest economy gathers momentum. The producer price index (PPI) rose 1.7% from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement. The firmer-than-expected price data comes as the prospect of a surge in inflation globally rattles financial markets amid concerns the world economic recovery may overheat. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.54% to settled at 1852 while prices up 13.4 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1171.5 and below same could see a test of 1161.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1192.4, a move above could see prices testing 1203.6.

Trading Ideas:            

* Nickel trading range for the day is 1161.8-1203.6.

* Nickel prices gained as investors proved optimistic on expectations of a strong US economic recovery

* On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 0.6% in February, the third straight month of gains, after a 1% rise in January.

* China's factory gate prices rose at the fastest pace since November 2018 in February, official data showed

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.7% at 172.9 on the back of tightening supply and expectations of higher restocking levels. The latest North American aluminum production data from the Aluminum Association for February showed US production was down 21.5% from a year earlier to 69,911 mt. Given the above and the fact that a global economic recovery could further fuel demand from the automotive, packaging and construction sectors, the commodity is due to extend its upside momentum into 2021. The dollar struggled as lower Treasury yields dampened the appeal of holding the greenback. Recent economic figures from the Labor Department showed the US core inflation came in weaker than expected and hit its lowest level in eight months, sending longer-term yields lower as investors hoped for a more upbeat outlook on consumer prices. Still, additional economic stimulus in the form of a $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package set to be signed by US President Joe Biden reinforced the view of a robust US economic bounce, paving the way for further dollar strength in the medium-term. Japan producer prices declined 0.7 percent on an annual basis in February 2021 following a 1.6 percent drop in the previous month. Inflation declined for food & beverages (0.9 percent vs. 1.2 percent) and general purpose machinery. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.66% to settled at 922 while prices up 1.2 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 172.3 and below same could see a test of 171.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 173.4, a move above could see prices testing 173.8.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 171.6-173.8.

* Aluminum prices gained on the back of tightening supply and expectations of higher restocking levels.

* Aluminium stockpiles in LME warehouses fell to their lowest since April 2020 at 1.28 million tonnes

* Recent economic figures from the Labor Department showed the US core inflation came in weaker than expected

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.21% at 960 amid weak demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. Support also seen on the expectation that India’s fragrance industry which had been slow, now slowly gaining the positive momentum post the COVID unlock down. Headed towards a new decade, the fragrance industry has received a much needed boost with the acceptance of trendy dhoop sticks and dhoop cones which has seen an increased 20% demand day by day. The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030. Growing demand for aroma chemicals in the food & beverage and fragrance industry will underpin the growth of the market. Strict regulations in relation to artificial flavours are complimenting to the expansion of natural aroma chemicals in the food sector. Out of India's total mentha oil exports, nearly 55% goes to China while 16% goes to the US and around 5% goes to Singapore. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1097.3 Rupees per 360 kgs. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed remain unchanged in open interest by 0% to settled at 54 while prices down -2 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 960 and below same could see a test of 960 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 960, a move above could see prices testing 960.      

Trading Ideas:            

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 960-960.

* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1097.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.

* Mentha oil dropped amid weak demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India.

* The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.

* The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030.

Soyabean     

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 1.33% at 5249 as worries about tight U.S. and global supplies overshadowed a U.S. Department of Agriculture report that raised forecasts for world soy stocks and Brazil's soy harvest. In a monthly supply-demand report, the USDA raised its estimate of Brazil's 2020/21 soybean harvest to 134 million tonnes, from 133 million last month. The USDA also raised its estimate of Brazil's year-ago 2019/20 soy crop. The USDA raised its projection for 2020/21 global soybean ending stocks to 83.74 million tonnes, from 83.36 million tonnes last month. The USDA left its forecast of U.S. 2020/21 soybean ending stocks at 120 million bushels, unchanged from last month and a seven-year low, if realized. Support also seen amid concerns about crops in South America. Harvest-time rains in Brazil have not only hit supplies but also the quality of beans. Brazilian farmers had harvested an estimated 35% of the planted soybean area through last Thursday, down from 49% a year earlier and the slowest pace in a decade. China's soybean imports in the first two months of 2021 fell slightly from a year earlier, customs data showed on Sunday, as rains in top exporter Brazil slowed some shipments. The world's top market for soybeans brought in 13.41 million tonnes of the oilseed in January and February, down 0.8% from 13.51 million tonnes a year earlier, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 32 Rupees to 5447 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.27% to settled at 147130 while prices up 69 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 5163 and below same could see a test of 5078 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5304, a move above could see prices testing 5360.      

Trading Ideas:            

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 5078-5360.

* Soyabean prices gained as worries about tight U.S. and global supplies overshadowed a USDA report that raised forecasts for world soy stocks and Brazil's soy harvest.

* The USDA raised its estimate of Brazil's 2020/21 soybean harvest to 134 million tonnes, from 133 million last month.

* USDA raised its projection for 2020/21 global soybean ending stocks to 83.74 million tonnes, from 83.36 million tonnes last month.

* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  32 Rupees to 5447 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref.Soyaoil  

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 0.23% at 1259.1 as support seen as the availability of sunflower in the domestic market is low due to higher prices. Also Soyabean arrivals is decreasing in the mandis. In the current week, the daily arrival of soybean in Madhya Pradesh was 70-75 thousand bags, Maharashtra 1-1.25 lakh bags and Rajasthan 12-15 thousand bags. According to USDA, soy production in Argentina may decline by 2.5 million tonnes from January estimate to 4.75 million tonnes, due to no rain in February, excessive rainfall in March. Only 10% of soy crop in Argentina is in very good condition. Last week 15% crop was judged to be good, due to change in weather, lack of good quality soya was observed. Heavy rains have been seen in Brazil since last week, soya crop stands ready for harvesting, this rain can cause delayed harvesting, the grain which has already been ripened can also become tainted. If the loss of soy in Brazil is more, then once again in the international markets, the boom. Soya exports from Canada have seen an increase, with the season starting from September to January seen 18.11 lakh tonnes of Soya exports which is 24% higher than the previous year. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1266.35 Rupees per 10 kgs. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.39% to settled at 54035 while prices up 2.9 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1248 and below same could see a test of 1238 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1268, a move above could see prices testing 1278.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1257-1315.

* Refsoyoil gained as support seen as the availability of sunflower in the domestic market is low due to higher prices.

* According to USDA, soy production in Argentina may decline by 2.5 million tonnes from January estimate to 4.75 million tonnes

* Heavy rains have been seen in Brazil since last week, this rain can cause delayed harvesting

* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1266.35 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil 

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 2.82% at 1138.1 as Malaysia's February palm oil stockpiles fell 1.8% from the previous month to 1.3 million tonnes, data from industry regulator the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) showed. Crude palm oil production last month declined 1.85% from January to 1.11 million tonnes, while palm oil exports plunged 5.5% to 895,556 tonnes, the MPOB said. Crude palm oil rallied to its highest levels on strong market sentiment and tracking the uptrend in the soybean market. USDA raises ending stocks estimates of U.S. soyoil from 1,714 million pounds to 1,733 million pounds. Malaysia will re-implement B20 in the transportation sector form Jun this year. According to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB), the country has voluntarily agreed to cut greenhouse gas emission intensity by 45 percent by 2030 relative to emission intensity gross domestic product (GDP) in 2005 as part of the commitment to the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21). The Malaysian government’s decision to freeze the recruitment of new foreign workers and the poor success rate of the recalibration programme is resulting in substantial opportunity costs for the sector. The acute shortage of labour in the plantation sector is now felt across the board in the oil palm sector. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 9 Rupees to end at 1114.8 Rupees. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.69% to settled at 5180 while prices up 31.2 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1122.2 and below same could see a test of 1106.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1147.1, a move above could see prices testing 1156.    

Trading Ideas:            

* CPO trading range for the day is 1106.2-1156.

* Crude palm oil gains to record high as Malaysia end – Feb palm oil stocks fall 1.8% m/m to 1.3 mln T

* Crude palm oil rallied to its highest levels on strong market sentiment and tracking the uptrend in the soybean market.

*  India and China demand for Malaysian palm oil likely to rise this year as economies open up

*  In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 9 Rupees to end at 1114.8 Rupees.

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 1.45% at 5745 as the crop ready to be harvested has suffered a lot due to the intense sun and heat for the past several days, cloudburst occurred in eastern Rajasthan. In many areas, there has been hailstorm with rain. Support also seen as the moisture content is being said to be high in the new mustard product coming. The government has banned mustard oil blended with other oils from 08-June. Support also seen due to better demand as millers remain in the procurement due to the pipeline being empty. Despite this, millers and traders are showing activity in purchasing because all the godowns are lying vacant. Government agencies are also watching the market. When there is a good arrival of dry new goods in the coming days, the activity of big companies as well as stockists will increase while heavy regular procurement of oil millers will continue. During the current Rabi season, domestic production of mustard is expected to rise to a new record level of 12-15 lakh tonnes as compared to last year but due to heavy buying by oil mills and stockists, its market price is expected to be much higher than the minimum price. Mustard supply is continuously increasing in the major mandis of Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Haryana, Gujarat and Eastern India. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 5775 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.53% to settled at 52470 while prices up 82 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 5666 and below same could see a test of 5587 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5796, a move above could see prices testing 5847.

Trading Ideas:            

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 5587-5847.

* Mustard prices gained as the crop ready to be harvested has suffered a lot as there has been hailstorm with rain in many parts of Rajasthan.

 * Support also seen as the moisture content is being said to be high in the new mustard product coming.

* The government has banned mustard oil blended with other oils from 08-June.

* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 5775 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric

 Turmeric yesterday settled down by -3.68% at 8638 as the arrival of turmeric in the Nizamabad yard has doubled. Pressure also seen as no demand for shipments at current prices of around ₹9,000 and export prospects of turmeric have been affected. The arrival of dry goods in the coming days, the quality will also start to improve. The arrival of new goods has started in Telangana and Sangli Mandi in Maharashtra. The arrival of new crop on the Erode line will start in the month of March. But due to less sowing this year, the production is also less likely than last year. During the current week Erode single polished bundle in Erode Mandi was quoted at Rs 6100/6300 with a rise from Rs 5800/6000. In recent sessions, prices were up in the spot due to lack of stock and inward arrivals of new goods in the month of February-March. During the current week, the price of Gatta without polish in Warangal rose by Rs 200 to Rs 5600. While the double polished bundle was strengthened from Rs 6200 to Rs 6400. Further new goods arrived in the turmeric auction held in Sangli Mandi, Maharashtra in the beginning of the week but due to moisture and quality turmeric trade was low. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8058.35 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.43% to settled at 8440 while prices down -330 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8472 and below same could see a test of 8308 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8948, a move above could see prices testing 9260.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 8308-9260.

*  Turmeric dropped as the arrival of turmeric in the Nizamabad yard has doubled.

*  Pressure also seen as no demand for shipments at current prices of around ₹9,000 and export prospects of turmeric have been affected.

*  The arrival of dry goods in the coming days, the quality will also start to improve.

*  In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8058.35 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees.

Jeera    

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.29% at 14005 as there is a possibility of a decrease in the production of cumin due to the rise in temperature. However upside seen limited as the arrival from the fields has started intensifying but the market is awaiting better quality spices with lower moisture content. In Unjha Mandi, 21,000 bags have come in as compared to 12,500 bags in Rajkot whereas 7,500 bags have arrived in Rajkot as compared to 7,000 bags in the previous session. The Unjha market is receiving nearly 1,000 bags per day from north Gujarat, Saurashtra, and parts of Rajasthan. Jeera production for 2021-22 (marketing period) is estimated at 391,291 MT (around 71 lakh bags each of 55 kg) compared to last year’s 451,451 MT (82 lakh bags). Major export demand coming from UAE and other gulf countries ahead of Ramzan. Domestic demand is also boosted by Ramzan and marriage season. Weather conditions in major producing states have hampered the quality and supply of jeera. On the international front support is also seen as turkey and Syria have reported less production of cumin this season. Production in Syria had dropped around 25-30 percent in 2020 versus the previous year due to political instability that has hampered the farming sector. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 13561.1 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.06% to settled at 3639 while prices up 40 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13950 and below same could see a test of 13895 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 14075, a move above could see prices testing 14145.       

Trading Ideas:            

*  Jeera trading range for the day is 13895-14145.

*  Jeera gained as there is a possibility of a decrease in the production of cumin due to the rise in temperature. 

*  However upside seen limited as the arrival from the fields has started intensifying

*  In Unjha Mandi, 21,000 bags have come in as compared to 12,500 bags in Rajkot whereas 7,500 bags have arrived in Rajkot

*  In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 13561.1 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.87% at 22110 after 2020/21 U.S. cotton forecasts show lower production, and ending stocks relative to last month. Production is reduced 250,000 bales to 14.7 million, based on the March 9 Cotton Ginnings report. Consumption is reduced 100,000 bales due to the industry’s lagging recovery from the previous year’s sharp losses. Ending stocks are 100,000 bales lower this month at 4.2 million bales. The projected marketing year average price received by upland producers of 69.0 cents per pound is up 1 cent from last month. The global 2020/21 cotton supply and demand estimates show lower production and ending stocks compared with last month, but higher mill use and trade. Estimated global production is reduced nearly 830,000 bales, largely due to lower Brazilian and U.S. production. Cotton import pace and indications of recovering global consumption helped boost consumption estimates for Turkey, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Vietnam, more than offsetting lower projections for the United States and Taiwan. Imports are also projected higher in the countries with larger consumption, and the forecast for 2020/21 world trade is more than 600,000 bales higher this month. On the export side, higher Indian exports account for most of the increase as auctions by the Cotton Corporation of India have released much of the cotton purchased last year under the Minimum Support Price program. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -130 Rupees to end at 21960 Rupees. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.31% to settled at 7137 while prices up 190 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 22050 and below same could see a test of 21980 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 22180, a move above could see prices testing 22240.

Trading Ideas:            

* Cotton trading range for the day is 21980-22240.

* Cotton prices gained after 2020/21 U.S. cotton forecasts show lower production and ending stocks relative to last month.

*  Consumption is reduced 100,000 bales due to the industry’s lagging recovery from the previous year’s sharp losses.

*  Production is reduced 250,000 bales to 14.7 million

*  In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -130 Rupees to end at 21960 Rupees.

Chana

Chana yesterday settled up by 0.79% at 5092 as support seen after update Chana yield in Rajasthan are lower by 20 -30 % compared to last year and sudden rise in temperature causing early maturity. However upside seen limited as the inventory held by the government is reasonable enough to balance the consumption till the new season supply is available. There are estimations of yields to surpass their recent five year average because of ample moisture retained after the monsoon season. Government’s planting data says that the planted area for chickpeas in India has increased from 10.731 million hectares at this time last year to a record 11.2 million. The average output for this year is estimated near to 11.74 million MT, up from 11.35 million last year. However downside seen limited due to lower arrivals and steady off take in the Chana processed products. The recent lockdown imposition in Maharashtra has resulted in temporary closure of few mandis, because of which there will be a supply constraint for a while. The Daily All India arrivals are limited these days and at the same time, rising prices is prompting NAFED to without their sale decision. Actual production likely to be much lower than official estimate due to damage to crop due to rising heat. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -35.4 Rupees to end at 5024.75 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.9% to settled at 62290 while prices up 40 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 5046 and below same could see a test of 5001 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5141, a move above could see prices testing 5191.

Trading Ideas:            

* Chana trading range for the day is 5001-5191.

* Chana prices gained as support seen after update Chana yield in Rajasthan are lower by 20 -30 % compared to last year 

* The inventory held by the government is reasonable enough to balance the consumption till the new season supply is available.

* There are estimations of yields to surpass their recent five year average because of ample moisture retained after the monsoon season.

* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped  by -35.4 Rupees to end at 5024.75 Rupees per 100 kgs.

-www.kediaadvisory.com 

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