IGI Logo

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.92% at 44698 as a stronger U.S. dollar and hopes for a swift global economic recovery boosted share markets, denting demand for a safe haven. Gold's safe-haven demand was also hurt as investors' appetite for riskier assets grew. Market participants are now waiting for U.S. President Joe Biden's infrastructure spending package on Wednesday, which is speculated to be in the $3 trillion to $4 trillion range. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note edged lower to 1.64%, remaining below 14-month highs of 1.75% reached early in the month as the bond market seems to be stabilising. Some investors view gold as a hedge against higher inflation that could follow stimulus measures, but a recent spike is U.S. Treasury yields has weighed on the non-yielding commodity. Hedge funds and money managers raised their bullish positions in COMEX gold and cut them in silver contracts in the week to March 23, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said. India gold activity slows as dealers close the books - Top Asian hubs saw moderate physical gold buying, with activity in India muted as the country’s financial year was coming to a close, while jewellers kept a wary eye on rising coronavirus cases. Dealers charged premiums of up to $5 an ounce over official domestic prices, inclusive of 10.75% import and 3% sales levies, down from last week’s $6. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 13.86% to settled at 12473 while prices down -413 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 44512 and below same could see a test of 44326 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 44972, a move above could see prices testing 45246.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Gold trading range for the day is 44326-45246.

* Gold prices fell as a stronger U.S. dollar and hopes for a swift global economic recovery boosted share markets, denting demand for a safe haven.

* Gold's safe-haven demand was also hurt as investors' appetite for riskier assets grew.

* Markets eye Biden's infrastructure spending plans on Wednesday

Silver       

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.97% at 64174 as both the dollar and Treasury yields strengthened further on expectations of a huge US economic rebound while the outlook in Europe remains more vulnerable due to rising Covid-19 cases. Investors also await President Joe Biden's infrastructure plan to be announced on Wednesday which is seen around $3 trillion-$4 trillion. San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said the U.S job market was “definitely still in a ditch,” with the economy still nearly 10 million jobs short of where it was before the COVID-19 crisis. Though economic growth is expected to surge this year and unemployment to fall, Daly said, “we are far from done ... this is not a work that we can say, victory is here - not even by the end of this year or the next will victory be before us. We really have to make sure that every American who wants a job has one, and that people are back to their livelihoods.” Hedge funds and money managers raised their bullish positions in COMEX gold and cut them in silver contracts in the week to March 23, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said. Investors continued to monitor surging infections and the extension of restrictive measures in Europe. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.18% to settled at 11132 while prices down -631 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 63710 and below same could see a test of 63245 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 64630, a move above could see prices testing 65085.       

Trading Ideas:            

* Silver trading range for the day is 63245-65085.

* Silver dropped as both the dollar and Treasury yields strengthened further on expectations of a huge US economic rebound

* Fed's Daly says U.S. job market is 'in a ditch'

* Investors also await President Joe Biden's infrastructure plan to be announced on Wednesday which is seen around $3 trillion-$4 trillion.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 0.67% at 4486 following news that Russia would support broadly stable oil output by major oil producers in May ahead of an OPEC+ meeting on April 1st. U.S. oil output from seven major shale formations is expected to decline by about 46,000 barrels per day (bpd) in April to about 7.46 million bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in a monthly forecast. Output at nearly every formation is expected to fall and the biggest declines are expected to come from the Eagle Ford and Niobrara basins, where production is expected to drop by about 15,000 bpd in each basin compared with March, the data showed. U.S. crude and fuel stockpiles rose last week and refineries increased capacity use in their recovery from last month's unusual cold that hit southern U.S. states, the Energy Information Administration said. Crude inventories rose by 1.9 million barrels in the week ended March 19 to 502.7 million barrels, compared with expectations for a 272,000-barrel drop. Crude oil producers from Europe, Africa and the United States faced difficulties selling to Asia, especially China, as buyers took cheaper oil from storage while refinery maintenance has reduced demand. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 11.51% to settled at 5155 while prices up 30 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4417 and below same could see a test of 4347 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4528, a move above could see prices testing 4569.          

Trading Ideas:            

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4347-4569.

* Crude oil gains following news that Russia would support broadly stable oil output by major oil producers in May ahead of an OPEC+ meeting on April 1st. 

* U.S. shale oil output to drop 46,000 bpd to 7.46 mln bpd in April – EIA

* U.S. crude, fuel stockpiles rise in most recent week -EIA

Nat.Gas      

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 0.84% at 192.9 on record liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and forecasts for slightly higher demand this week, while the possibility of an early start to the injection season partly limited gains. Still, delayed export deliveries due to a stranded container ship blocking natural gas and crude oil carriers in the Suez Canal and the latest Energy Information Administration storage report showing a bigger-than-expected withdrawal capped losses. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants, meanwhile, averaged 10.7 bcfd so far in March. That compares with a four-month low of 8.5 bcfd in February, when extreme cold cut power and gas supplies to the facilities, and puts feedgas on track to match the monthly record of 10.7 bcfd in December. Buyers around the world continue to purchase near record amounts of U.S. gas because prices in Europe and Asia remain high enough to cover the cost of buying and transporting the U.S. fuel across the ocean. Meanwhile, shipping traffic through Egypt's Suez Canal has resumed after a giant container ship that had been blocking the busy waterway for almost a week was refloated. Output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 91.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up sharply from a 28-month low of 86.5 bcfd in February, when extreme weather froze gas wells and pipes in Texas. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 11.83% to settled at 14051 while prices up 1.6 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 190.1 and below same could see a test of 187.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 194.7, a move above could see prices testing 196.4.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 187.2-196.4.

* Natural gas rose on record liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and forecasts for slightly higher demand this week

* EIA said U.S. utilities pulled 36 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended March 19.

* Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would rise from 98.6 bcfd this week to 99.4 bcfd next week

Copper       

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.66% at 669.25 amid rising exchange inventories and signs of weakening demand from top consumer China weighed on sentiment. U.S. Labor Department data showed claims for unemployment benefits dropped to a one-year low last week, a sign that the world's biggest economy is on the verge of stronger growth. Meanwhile, U.S. President Joe Biden said that he would double his administration's vaccination roll-out plan after reaching the previous goal of 100 million shots 42 days ahead of schedule. Copper however, are set for weekly losses on concerns over Europe's third COVID-19 wave, rising copper inventories and a stronger dollar. The global world refined copper market showed a 24,000 tonnes surplus in December, compared with a 93,000 tonnes deficit in November, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. For the first 12 months of the year, the market was in a 559,000 tonnes deficit compared with a 383,000 tonnes deficit in the same period a year earlier, the ICSG said. World refined copper output in December was 2.11 million tonnes , while consumption was 2.09 million tonnes. China's copper smelter group decided not to set a treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) floor price for the second quarter. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.64% to settled at 2848 while prices down -4.45 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 666.6 and below same could see a test of 663.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 672.4, a move above could see prices testing 675.5. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Copper trading range for the day is 663.9-675.5.

* Copper prices fell amid rising exchange inventories and signs of weakening demand from top consumer China weighed on sentiment.

* US. Labor Department data showed claims for unemployment benefits dropped to a one-year low last week

* China's copper smelter group decided not to set a treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) floor price for the second quarter.

Zinc       

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.07% at 220.35 amid concerns about a surge in COVID-19 cases across Europe and the negative impact of restrictive measures and vaccine delays on economic recovery. Weekly treatment charges (TCs) for domestic zinc concentrate continued to fall last week, suggesting tight concentrate supply, and this, combined with production restrictions, prompted zinc smelters to reduce output. The global zinc market was oversupplied by 11,700 tonnes in January after a revised surplus of 23,500 tonnes in December, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. For 2020, the surplus in the roughly 13.5 million tonne a year market was 536,000 tonnes, according to the ILZSG. Data showed that social inventories of refined zinc ingots across Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and Hebei decreased 5,700 mt from last Friday March 26 to 242,300 mt as of Monday March 29. The stocks were down 14,200 mt from March 22. Stocks in Shanghai decreased as the inflow of import zinc slowed down and downstream restocking increased when zinc prices fell. In south China's Guangdong, arrivals at smelters fell and downstream demand improved, which led to the decrease in stocks. Stocks in Tianjin went down as the maintenance of some smelters affected the arrivals with tepid downstream demand. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.47% to settled at 1848 while prices up 0.15 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 219.6 and below same could see a test of 218.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 220.9, a move above could see prices testing 221.4. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Zinc trading range for the day is 218.8-221.4.

* Zinc settled flat amid concerns about a surge in COVID-19 cases across Europe and the negative impact of restrictive measures and vaccine delays on economic recovery.

* The global zinc market was oversupplied by 11,700 tonnes in January after a revised surplus of 23,500 tonnes in December

* Data showed that social inventories of refined zinc ingots decreased 5,700 mt from last Friday March 26 to 242,300 mt

Nickel      

Nickel yesterday settled down by -1% at 1183.9 after Japan's Sumitomo Corp said its Ambatovy nickel project in Madagascar resumed operation on March 23 after being shut since March 2020 due to the coronavirus crisis. Refined nickel inventories in ShFE warehouses dropped to their lowest since June 2019 at 9,339 tonnes. China is expected to lead the recovery of East Asian and Pacific economies this year, but many nations will record sub-par growth as they struggle to emerge from the coronavirus pandemic, according to new World Bank forecasts released. The World Bank’s latest East Asia and Pacific Economic Update predicts China’s economy will expand by 8.1% in 2021, compared with 2.3% the previous year, powering a 7.4% region-wide expansion, up from 1.2 per cent in 2020. Excluding China, by far the region’s biggest economy, growth will only be 4.4% in East Asia and the Pacific, an improvement on a 3.7% contraction the year before but still below the long-term average. Vietnam is the other outstanding economic performer with an expected growth rate of 6.6%, up from 2.9%. China and Vietnam were among the relatively few countries that were only lightly hit by the pandemic and did not fall into recession in 2020. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.36% to settled at 1740 while prices down -11.9 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1177.6 and below same could see a test of 1171.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1192.8, a move above could see prices testing 1201.6.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Nickel trading range for the day is 1171.2-1201.6.

* Nickel dropped after Japan's Sumitomo Corp said its Ambatovy nickel project in Madagascar resumed operation after being shut since March 2020 due to the coronavirus crisis.

* Refined nickel inventories in ShFE warehouses dropped to their lowest since June 2019 at 9,339 tonnes.

* China set to lead recovery of East Asian and Pacific economies: World Bank

Aluminium      

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.64% at 177.95 as dollar held near its highest since November buoyed by hopes over improving U.S. economic data and the availability of coronavirus vaccines. Prices rallied on Friday amid tightening supplies and continued robust demand from the automotive, packaging and construction sectors. Inner Mongolia, a major coal-fired production hub in northern China, said it would stop approving new projects as part of a series of measures to meet its energy consumption targets this quarter. University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose to its highest level in a year in March. Recently, US President Joe Biden doubled his 100-day vaccination target to 200 million doses. The US government has stepped up its vaccination plan. The Federal Reserve will limit dividends of most Wall Street banks at the end of the second quarter. On the data front, U.K. retail sales partly recovered in February, with sales volumes increasing by 2.1% month-on-month, in line with expectations. Germany’s Ifo Institute business climate index rose to 96.6 in March from 92.7 in February, outstripping analyst expectations to show sentiment at its highest level in almost two years. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.28% to settled at 1484 while prices down -1.15 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 177.3 and below same could see a test of 176.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 178.8, a move above could see prices testing 179.7.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 176.7-179.7.

*  Aluminium dropped as dollar held near its highest since November buoyed by hopes over improving U.S. economic data and the availability of coronavirus vaccines

*  Prices rallied on Friday amid tightening supplies and continued robust demand from the automotive, packaging and construction sectors.

* University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose to its highest level in a year in March.

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.16% at 958.9 on low level buying after prices dropped amid weak demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. Support also seen on the expectation that India’s fragrance industry which had been slow, now slowly gaining the positive momentum post the COVID unlock down. Headed towards a new decade, the fragrance industry has received a much needed boost with the acceptance of trendy dhoop sticks and dhoop cones which has seen an increased 20% demand day by day. The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030. Growing demand for aroma chemicals in the food & beverage and fragrance industry will underpin the growth of the market. Strict regulations in relation to artificial flavours are complimenting to the expansion of natural aroma chemicals in the food sector. Out of India's total mentha oil exports, nearly 55% goes to China while 16% goes to the US and around 5% goes to Singapore. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -17.6 Rupees to end at 1090.5 Rupees per 360 kgs. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.69% to settled at 36 while prices up 1.5 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 950 and below same could see a test of 941 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 972.5, a move above could see prices testing 986.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 941-986.

* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -17.6 Rupees to end at 1090.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.

* Mentha oil gains on low level buying after prices dropped amid weak demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India.

* The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.

* The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030.

Soyabean      

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 0.55% at 5832 after reports that increasing feed demand has boosted China’s soybean import outlook. Support also seen after update in Madhya Pradesh thunderstorm and rain likely for next three to four days and weather will deteriorate again. Farmers are suffering a lot due to unseasonal rains. In many parts, the rains have caused heavy damage to many crops. The USDA estimates China’s soybean imports for the 2021-22 marketing year is expected to hit a record high of 100 million tonnes. Recovering feed demand is forecast to lift China’s soybean crush volume to 99 million tonnes in the 2021-22 marketing year compared to 97.5 million tonnes in the 2020-21 marketing year. The USDA reported export inspections of 489,405 tonnes of soybeans for the week ended March 18, down 10.8% from the week prior and 16.7% lower than the same week a year ago. China's soybean imports from Brazil fell sharply in the first two months of 2021 compared to the same period last year, customs data showed, as rain delayed some shipments from the top exporter. Improved crop weather in South America following recent dryness in Argentina and excessive rains in key parts of Brazil added pressure. New-crop futures have been limited by an expected increase in U.S. plantings this spring. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped -18 Rupees to 5904 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.31% to settled at 96585 while prices up 32 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 5736 and below same could see a test of 5641 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5891, a move above could see prices testing 5951.          

Trading Ideas:            

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 5641-5951.

* Soyabean prices gained after reports that Chinese soybean imports forecast to hit record high

* Support also seen after update in Madhya Pradesh thunderstorm and rain likely for next three to four days and weather will deteriorate again.

* The USDA estimates China’s soybean imports for the 2021-22 marketing year is expected to hit a record high of 100 million tonnes.

*  At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped  -18 Rupees to 5904 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref.Soyaoil      

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 0.03% at 1263.6 tracking rise in Soyabean prices and as Export of oilmeals jumped 205% year-on-year in February to 393,309 tonne, compared with 128,761 tonne, according to data compiled by the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA). The overall export of oilmeals during April 2020 to February 2021 recovered sharply and stood at 3,358,649 tonne provisionally, against 2,256,614 tonne during the same period of the previous year, up by 49%, according to the association. The export of soybean meal jumped mainly because of better realisations, thanks to lesser supply from Argentina and Brazil, coupled with good demand of non-GMO soybean meal from the US and Europe, the association said in a statement. Support also seen due to tightening global supplies. However upside seen limited due to better crop weather in drought-hit South America. The U.S. soybean crush was well below trade expectations in February, sinking to the lowest in 17 months, according to data released by the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA). NOPA members, which handle about 95 percent of all soybeans processed in the United States, crushed 155.158 million bushels of soybeans last month, the lowest for a single month since September 2019. The crush was down from 184.654 million bushels in January and 166.288 million bushels in February 2020. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1280.65 Rupees per 10 kgs. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.34% to settled at 42010 while prices up 0.4 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1256 and below same could see a test of 1249 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1270, a move above could see prices testing 1277.  

Trading Ideas:         

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1249-1277.

* Ref soyoil prices gained tracking rise in Soyabean prices and as Export of oilmeals in April-February rises 49%

*  Export of oilmeals jumped 205% year-on-year in February to 393,309 tonne, compared with 128,761 tonne

* Support also seen due to tightening global supplies.

*  At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1280.65 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil​​​​​​​      

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 0.63% at 1138.7 due to tight supplies and expectations of a slower decline in global prices. Global edible oil prices are nearing their peak but may be slow to decline to previous levels due to low stocks, a slow recovery in output and higher global use in biofuel production. Indonesia's palm oil inventories at the end of 2021 are expected to fall by nearly half to 2.67 million tonnes from 4.87 million tonnes last year, an official at the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) said. Total demand for export and domestic consumption in 2021 is expected to rise 9% from the year before to 56 million tonnes, while production is set to rise 4% to 49 million tonnes. Indonesia set its crude palm oil reference price for April higher at $1,093.83 per tonne, an official at the country's coordinating economics ministry said, bringing export taxes higher. Biden's green fuel push using edible oils is helping drive up vegetable oil prices that are already near record highs, hitting key cost-sensitive consumers in India and Africa and stoking global food inflation fears. Exports of palm oil from the world's top producer Indonesia rose nearly 20% on annual basis in January, the country's biggest palm group said, but output was disrupted by flood and stock fell to a six-month low. In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -6.1 Rupees to end at 1139.5 Rupees. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.33% to settled at 2397 while prices up 7.1 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1135.1 and below same could see a test of 1131.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1143.4, a move above could see prices testing 1148.1.    

Trading Ideas:            

* CPO trading range for the day is 1131.5-1148.1.

* Crude palm oil gains due to tight supplies and expectations of a slower decline in global prices.

* Malaysia's March 1 – 25 palm oil exports rise 10.4% – Amspec Malaysia

*  Indonesia's palm oil inventories at the end of 2021 are expected to fall by nearly half to 2.67 million tonnes from 4.87 million tonnes last year

* In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped  by -6.1 Rupees to end at 1139.5 Rupees.

Mustard Seed​​​​​​​      

Mustard Seed yesterday settled down by -0.09% at 5739 on profit booking after Madhya Pradesh government had postponed the procurement of crop due to bad weather. The Ministry of Agriculture Department has announced a new date for the production of gram and mustard crop in the agricultural produce mandis of Madhya Pradesh and the procurement work is scheduled to be started from 27-03-2021. There is good news for the farmers of the state. Procurement of mustard in Rajasthan will start from April 1. According to Cooperative Minister Udayalal Anjana, a target has been set to purchase 12 lakh 22 thousand 775 metric tons of mustard. Mustard will be purchased from farmers at the rate of Rs. 4650 per quintal. According to the assessment of the industry organization, Rajasthan, the country's largest mustard producing state, has a mustard crop on about 25 lakh hectares this year. The weather is favorable this year during the Rabi season and farmers taking interest in mustard cultivation has increased the area under sowing and the yield per hectare has also increased, so this year in the country Mustard records are expected to be produced. Uttar Pradesh is estimated to produce 1.5 million tonnes of mustard. Canada’s Canola seed exports to China are strong despite China continuing to block Canada’s two largest canola exporters, and China maintaining a restrictive dockage requirement of one percent on its canola imports. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -20 Rupees to end at 5728.5 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.4% to settled at 42880 while prices down -5 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 5652 and below same could see a test of 5566 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5786, a move above could see prices testing 5834.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 5566-5834.

* Mustard prices dropped on profit booking after Madhya Pradesh government had postponed the procurement of crop due to bad weather.

*  Rajasthan: Mustard to be purchased on MSP from April 1

*  Mustard will be purchased from farmers at the rate of Rs. 4650 per quintal.

* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -20 Rupees to end at 5728.5 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric​​​​​​​      

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 1.96% at 8430 as high domestic demand, coupled with fears of lower output, have fuelled turmeric prices. Prices also remained supported amid crop quality concerns and sharp surge in demand. Due to climatic adversities and poor quality, turmeric growers are looking at lower yields. Area under turmeric cultivation was expected to go up, but that did not happen, and prices are firming up on the back of strong domestic and export demand. Turmeric consumption had surged during the whole of 2020 as people resorted to it an immunity booster against Covid-19. Prices also seen supported amid expectation of decrease in Turmeric sown area in the kharif sowing season 2020 across Nizamabad and Marathwada regions. Covid-19 raised expectations regarding the consumption of turmeric as a body immune enhancer, but it did not last long. Poor quality of arrivals is another reason for the drop in demand. Therefore, many traders in Erode started buying turmeric from the markets of Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra as the prices were low there. Despite 2% freight, they are saving 5% on costs. Apprehensions are there that water logging and higher moisture due to recent rains in October in major Turmeric growing regions of Telangana, Maharashtra, Karnataka is likely to have adverse impact on overall productivity of Turmeric. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7726.45 Rupees dropped -28.1 Rupees. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.48% to settled at 7635 while prices up 162 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8322 and below same could see a test of 8212 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8570, a move above could see prices testing 8708.          

Trading Ideas:            

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 8212-8708.

* Turmeric prices gained as high domestic demand, coupled with fears of lower output, have fuelled turmeric prices.

* Prices also remained supported amid crop quality concerns and sharp surge in demand.

* Due to climatic adversities and poor quality, turmeric growers are looking at lower yields.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7726.45 Rupees dropped -28.1 Rupees.

Jeera     

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.4% at 14760 due to rise in arrivals seen in the market, as mandis were closed in Gujarat and Rajasthan, and will re-open only after April 2. The supply of cumin in the current year will be good for the entire year due to carry forward 17 to 20 lakh bags. Also the yield of cumin is normal, there is no major deficiency in it. Due to high amount of heat in the atmosphere, the arrival of cumin will be faster this year, but the picture of arrival of cumin coming from behind is still uncertain. The production of cumin is estimated to decline by 10 to 15% and the crop of zora will not exceed 75 lakh sacks. In the current year, Gujarat's cumin crop has good color quality, but the weight of yield cumin seeds is low. Whereas in Rajasthan's cumin crop, the color quality, weight and weight of cumin seeds is very much visible. Recently in the Merta Mandi of Rajasthan, there was an arrival of 20 thousand sacks in a single day because the arrival of cumin is accelerated due to heat. At one time the ratio of cumin arrivals will be as much as 90 lakh sacks, but in reality it will be the effect of heat. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 75.45 Rupees to end at 14316.65 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.34% to settled at 4377 while prices down -60 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 14685 and below same could see a test of 14605 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 14840, a move above could see prices testing 14915.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Jeera trading range for the day is 14605-14915.

* Jeera dropped due to rise in arrivals seen in the market, as mandis were closed in Gujarat and Rajasthan, and will re-open only after April 2. 

* The supply of cumin in the current year will be good for the entire year due to carry forward 17 to 20 lakh bags

*  In the Merta Mandi of Rajasthan, there was an arrival of 20 thousand sacks in a single day as arrival is accelerated due to heat.

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 75.45 Rupees to end at 14316.65 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton     

Cotton yesterday settled up by 1.38% at 21380 after reports Pakistan likely to resume import of cotton from India. In recent session prices dropped after Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) reduced the selling price of cotton as a “one-time correction.” Cotton farmers in the country have taken advantage of higher global price for the natural fibre this season (October 2020-September 2021), resulting in at least 80 per cent of the production being sold till now. As a result, most of the ginning mills in north and western parts of the country that process kapas (raw cotton) into ginned cotton are likely to shut operations from April this year. According to an estimate by the Cotton Association of India, a body of traders, arrivals this year since October 1 were 298.89 lakh bales (of 170 kg). The arrivals are against CAI’s projection of the cotton crop production at 358.50 lakh bales against 360 lakh bales last season. The Committee on Cotton Production and Consumption (CCPC), a body representing all stakeholders in the textile industry including government officials, has estimated this season’s crop at 371 lakh bales (358.50 lakh bales last season). Arrivals have been higher despite record carryover stocks from last season. While CAI has pegged the carryover stocks at 115 lakh bales, the CCPC has estimated it at 97.95 lakh bales. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -160 Rupees to end at 21430 Rupees. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.33% to settled at 7945 while prices up 290 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 21060 and below same could see a test of 20730 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21620, a move above could see prices testing 21850.        

Trading Ideas:            

* Cotton trading range for the day is 20730-21850.

* Cotton prices gained after reports Pakistan likely to resume import of cotton from India.

* Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) reduced the selling price of cotton as a “one-time correction.”

* Cotton farmers have taken advantage of higher global price, resulting in at least 80 per cent of the production being sold till now.

* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -160 Rupees to end at 21430 Rupees.

Chana       

Chana yesterday settled up by 0.93% at 4997 as exports continues, the export of Kabali Chana is now being done indiscriminately from Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka. Support also seen as supply in domestic markets is not equal to weak production. Further the old stock has already been disposed of. Kabali chana production is estimated to be close to 1.6 million tonnes, while the country's annual domestic consumption is 28 lakh tonnes, and there is no scope for imports, which is expected to increase the market further. There are still no more than 21-22 trucks coming on Lawrence Road, while 40-41 trucks were running daily during these days last year. However, government procurement will start from April, making further trade at these prices profitable. Depending on the new policy of government, the production of peas is expected to increase from 2 lakh tonnes to around 4.5 lakh tonnes. Purchases were made by some big companies at the beginning of the season, but now their purchase has also stopped, the government should completely remove the MRP 200 rupees per kg condition for the next financial year. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -50 Rupees to end at 4853.35 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.57% to settled at 66600 while prices up 46 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4931 and below same could see a test of 4865 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5039, a move above could see prices testing 5081.   

Trading Ideas:            

* Chana trading range for the day is 4865-5081.

* Chana prices gained as exports continues, the export of Kabali Chana is now being done indiscriminately from Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka.

* Support also seen as supply in domestic markets is not equal to weak production and the old stock has already been disposed of.

* Depending on the new policy of government, the production of peas is expected to increase from 2 lakh tonnes to around 4.5 lakh tonnes.

* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped  by -50 Rupees to end at 4853.35 Rupees per 100 kgs.

-www.kediaadvisory.com

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views. Click Here For Disclaimer