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NCDEX Turmeric Future price has mainly traded bearish during the June month closing at Rs.7282/quintal on 28th June, lower by 7.09% compared to Rs.7798/quintal as on 31st May. Steady buying in the domestic market amid high medicinal value including the proven anti-inflammatory qualities with higher prices has attracted the farmers to improve sowing of Turmeric in various states of India, As the demand for the key spice improved especially in Indian Kitchen, cultivators in Uttar Pradesh has begun to favour the ubiquitous Haldi.

Fundamentally for the month ahead, we are estimating NCDEX Turmeric futures to trade bearish, with the reports of good monsoon in the southern peninsula. Although the monsoon has slowed down in the central and north western parts of India, but then, monsoon continues to remain favourable in Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. The domestic APMC markets have reopened and supplies/arrivals are slowly rising with vaccination process picking up pace. Assam has picked up sowing pace of Turmeric with near normal monsoon reports and due to greater road connectivity with the other states; yield is forecasted to be higher over the decades. Farmers in Goa have been showing interest in growing turmeric given its viability as a commercial spice crop and in a bid to boost cultivation the agriculture department has also taken initiatives to help farmers in the same as intercrop. Women are growing turmeric in Odisha's Koraput district at a time when people are losing livelihoods due to frequent lockdowns in the COVID-19 pandemic, They appear to have found a foothold in a market that promises a perennial return for their organic crop. Conversely, exports from India is expected to further rise with higher pharmacy demand and expectancy of greater demand in the middle east, European Union and United States. Shillong Venture in Meghalaya is making farmers famous by supplying world’s finest Turmeric,

On the daily chart, NCDEX Turmeric (Aug) future has been falling continuously in Bearish Channel from last couple of weeks. In addition, the price is trading below the Ichimoku Cloud, which confirms a bearish trend in the near future. Moreover, the price has shifted below the 50 Exponential Moving Averages which point out negative trend for medium term. Moreover, an oscillator Stochastic RSI is also supportive for the short position with negative crossover, Furthermore, a momentum indicator RSI (14) reading is below 50 levels, which suggests a bearish move for the near future. Hence, based on the above technical structure, one can initiate a short position in NCDEX Turmeric (Aug) future at CMP 7310 or arise in the price till 7400 levels can be used as a selling opportunity for the downside target of 6560. However, the bearish view will be negated if NCDEX Turmeric (Aug) future closes above the — resistance level of 7710.

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