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Views On Morning Nifty, Derivative and Rupee comments 22 September  2022 by Anand James - Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.

Nifty outlook: 

The feeble bounce off 17700 vicinity did not inspire confidence in extending upsides. Neither did the distribution pave way for a collapse. But we have been trading closer to +2 standard deviation band of the last 100 days for a while, which has increased the odds of a turn lower. Meanwhile, prospects of surprise bounce back will improve, should Nifty float above or pull back from below 17560. Else, expect 17000, which is in the vicinity of the 200-day sma, to keep pulling prices lower.

Derivative:

Nifty weekly contract has highest open interest at 18100 for Calls and 17100 for Puts while monthly contracts have highest open interest at 18100 for Calls and 17400 for Puts. Highest new OI addition was seen at 18000 for Calls and 17500 for Puts in weekly and at 18000 for Calls and 17500 for Puts in monthly contracts. FIIs increased their future index long position holdings by -4.17%, increased future index shorts by 15.11% and in index options by 15.19% in Call longs, 6.80% in Call short, 36.36% in Put longs and -5.01% in Put shorts.

USD-INR outlook:

Our bias yesterday was tilted towards a breakout move to 80.3 and today should see the move mature fully, but expect bullish exhaustion, should USDINR fail to float above 80.1.0

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