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Views On Morning Nifty, Derivative and Rupee comments 12 April 2023 by Anand James - Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Financial Services

Nifty outlook:  

The exhaustion seen in the last few days, and intermittent drops that never gained momentum are classic setups that are usually followed by large strides higher. Incidentally, the last few days have consistently respected VWAPs, but yesterday having closed in its vicinity, the threat of down move cannot be ignored. If Nifty is unable to float above 17708 early in the day, which is also the 7DMA, all eyes would be on 17630. If stability is achieved within these two critical levels,expect 17900 in a hurry. Alternatively, fall below 17630 could call for 17432 right away. However, as is, we are unable to spot a weakness that could threaten 17220.  

Derivative:

Nifty weekly contract has highest open interest at 18000 for Calls and 17700 for Puts while monthly contracts have highest open interest at 18000 for Calls and 17000 for Puts. Highest new OI addition was seen at 18600 for Calls and 17700 for Puts in weekly and at 17700 for Calls and 17700 for Puts in monthly contracts. FIIs increased their future index long position holdings by 20.14%, increased future index shorts by -15.03% and in index options by -2.12% in Call longs, 8.11% in Call short, -11.28% in Put longs and 35.30% in Put shorts.

USD-INR outlook:

Trades centered around 81.93 for a second day, and momentum appears to have deserted the currency pair. We will now look for a break beyond 82.2-81.86 for tradeable moves for intraday while 81.6 on the downside, and 82.37 or 82.46 on the upside may be required for sustainable moves of size.   

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