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Views On Morning Nifty, Derivative and Rupee comments 03 May 2023 by Anand James - Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Financial Services

Nifty outlook:  

Inability to clear 18200 and the slow down inmomentum signals caution, but they are not significant enough to force an outright turn in the trend. Look for slippage past 18094 for initial signs towards that end, but with 18000 and 17885 as firm supports, collapse is less likely. Alternatively, if 18094 holds, expect upswings aiming 18200/230, at which point, we will examine the strength of negative divergences that have emerged in a few oscillators.  

Derivative:

Nifty weekly contract has highest open interest at 18200 for Calls and 17800 for Puts while monthly contracts have highest open interest at 18500 for Calls and 17500 for Puts. Highest new OI addition was seen at 18200 for Calls and 18100 for Puts in weekly and at 19000 for Calls and 18200 for Puts in monthly contracts. FIIs increased their future index long position holdings by 41.93%, increased future index shorts by 1.34% and in index options by 2.65% in Call longs, -1.41% in Call short, 11.59% in Put longs and -7.77% in Put shorts  

USD-INR outlook:

The uppish bias that we had expected yesterday took USD-INR off our suggested trading range, and with 81.97 having turned prices lower, the sideways bias is retained. Expect negative bias though, if below 81.75, but it would be prudent to wait for break 81.55 to see momentum. Else, expect swings in the 81.75-81.87 band again.  

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