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Views On Morning Nifty, Derivative and Rupee Comments as of 21 February 2023 by Anand James - Chief Market Strategist, Geojit Financial Services

Nifty outlook:  

The evening star pattern showed its might by gripping the trend under a bearish cloud, but the downside momentum thereof was not enough to breach our downside marker of 17750. Given the proximity of declining trendline, a bounce back is likely, but the prospects of a meaningful move thereof will depend on how stubborn the congestion resistance band of 17868-940 will be. Inability to clear the same or an outright fall below 17750 will expose 17300 again, but we are not leaning towards a collapse at this point.  

Derivative:

  Nifty weekly contract has highest open interest at 18000 for Calls and 17500 for Puts while monthly contracts have highest open interest at 18000 for Calls and 17500 for Puts. Highest new OI addition was seen at 17900 for Calls and 17600 for Puts in weekly and at 17900 for Calls and 17600 for Puts in monthly contracts. FIIs increased their future index long position holdings by -1.63%, increased future index shorts by 6.32% and in index options by 15.76% in Call longs, 10.29% in Call short, 14.38% in Put longs and 16.35% in Put shorts.  

USD-INR outlook:

Initial slippages were contained near 82.69 on anticipated lines, but the upswing thereof failed to find enough momentum to see 82.95. We will retain the same hopes today, but with lower expectations of a vertical rise.B breach of 82.69 could call for 82.59-82.43.  

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