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Views On Morning Nifty, Derivative and Rupee Comments as of 18 November 2022 by Anand James - Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.

Nifty outlook: 

Expectations of a breakout move have gone up, as tradingranges continue to shrink. But with a soft VIX, breakout moves may find it difficult to gain momentum. Further, a negative oscillator divergence along with persistent trades near the upper Bollinger band since mid Octobersuggest that we may not get to the 18600-800 band in a hurry. This keeps 18280 and 18000 in the radar with 18460/18530 seen as challenges.  

Derivative:

Nifty weekly contract has highest open interest at 18400 for Calls and 18300 for Puts while monthly contracts have highest open interest at 19000 for Calls and 18000 for Puts. Highest new OI addition was seen at 18350 for Calls and 17400 for Puts in weekly and at 19000 for Calls and 18300 for Puts in monthly contracts. FIIs increased their future index long position holdings by -2.45%, increased future index shorts by 1.64% and in index options by -30.27% in Call longs, -23.91% in Call short, -29.80% in Put longs and -43.19% in Put shorts.  

USD-INR outlook:

Inability to sustain momentum after achieving our target of 81.7 yesterday hints atrejection trades. We will look for dips to 81.35 to re enter longs, but with no clear upside objective insight, as 81.7-82 is seen as a supply zone.  

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