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Views On Morning Nifty, Derivative and Rupee Comments as of 06 December 2022 by Anand James - Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.

Nifty outlook: 

There was enough bargain buying interest to keep 18,600 largely intact and attempt multiple upside attempts yesterday, but none of them succeeded in making much headway beyond our turnaround level of 18,715. There is an outside chance of a brief spike to 18,840, but the bearish warning that was sounded last week, is still very much on, requiring a close above 18,840 to shake the bears off. With an H&S pattern maturing in 60m frame, favoured view sees more chances of a slip to either 18500 or stretch all the way to 18,360-18,100, before prospects of 19400may be re-evaluated again.

Derivative:

Nifty weekly contract has highest open interest at 19,000 for Calls and 18,700 for Puts while monthly contracts have highest open interest at 19,000 for Calls and 18,000 for Puts. Highest new OI addition was seen at 18,700 for Calls and 18,700 for Puts in weekly and at 18,800 for Calls and 17,800 for Puts in monthly contracts. FIIs increased their future index long position holdings by -19.54%, increased future index shorts by 26.42% and in index options by 23.52% in Call longs, 15.22% in Call short, 75.91% in Put longs and 4.44% in Put shorts.  

USD-INR outlook:

While we had geared ourselves for an upside move yesterday, and even discussed 82, it was towards marking the important challenges. Hence, even though we had positioned ourselves on the right side of the market, the extent of upsides was surprising. We are now all poised to challenge 81.9, and dips are to be expected, but as long as the retracements do not stretch beyond 81.6, a breach of 82 could be expected.  

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