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Quote on Morning market 14 July  2022 By Dr. V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services

"Even though the keenly awaited US CPI inflation data for June came at 9.1% against expectation of 8.8%, US markets declined only moderately, by less than 1%. It is important to note that core inflation ( inflation minus food and energy ) in the US is declining and, therefore, CPI inflation too will decline, going forward, since crude prices have corrected sharply.

The higher than expected US  inflation means the Fed will continue its aggressive tightening in the near-term with another 75bp hike in July, perhaps even by 100bp. But the long-term bond yields in the US indicate a possible rate cut by March 2023. In brief, this 9.1% inflation print is likely to be the peak inflation.

FIIs have used the July rally to press further big selling ( Rs 2840 cr yesterday) after what appeared as selling exhaustion in early July. This  renewed FII selling may strengthen the bears but DIIs and retail investors are likely to turn strong buyers at every dip since India's economic fundamentals are strong and, more importantly, valuations are attractive particularly in segments/ stocks where FIIs are selling."

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