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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.17% at 52992 as a firm dollar weighed on the prices. While prices ended the week with gains amid concerns of an escalation in the Ukraine conflict after Putin described the on-and-off peace negotiations as “a dead-end situation,” while Biden said Russia’s war in Ukraine amounted to genocide. The metal also benefited as a hedge against inflation after latest data showed the US annual inflation rate rose 8.5% in March, accelerating at its fastest pace since December 1981. Meanwhile, investors remained cautious as a strong inflation print bolstered the case for a more aggressive Federal Reserve policy tightening, with Fed Governor Lael Brainard reaffirming the central bank’s hawkish stance. Physical gold demand in top consumer China was muted this week as COVID-induced curbs dampened sentiment, while discounts in India narrowed to their lowest level in two months on a slight improvement in demand and lower scrap supplies. Dealers offered discounts of up to $12 an ounce over official domestic prices, inclusive of 10.75% import and 3% sales levies, down from last week's $40 discounts. Discounts are falling because of lower March imports and as the flow of old jewellery and coins, or scrap supplies, have come down. In China, discounts of $4.25-$6 per ounce were offered versus global benchmark spot rates. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.9% to settled at 18284 while prices down -89 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 52758 and below same could see a test of 52524 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 53168, a move above could see prices testing 53344.
Gold yesterday settled down by -0.17% at 52992 as a firm dollar weighed on the prices. While prices ended the week with gains amid concerns of an escalation in the Ukraine conflict after Putin described the on-and-off peace negotiations as “a dead-end situation,” while Biden said Russia’s war in Ukraine amounted to genocide. The metal also benefited as a hedge against inflation after latest data showed the US annual inflation rate rose 8.5% in March, accelerating at its fastest pace since December 1981. Meanwhile, investors remained cautious as a strong inflation print bolstered the case for a more aggressive Federal Reserve policy tightening, with Fed Governor Lael Brainard reaffirming the central bank’s hawkish stance. Physical gold demand in top consumer China was muted this week as COVID-induced curbs dampened sentiment, while discounts in India narrowed to their lowest level in two months on a slight improvement in demand and lower scrap supplies. Dealers offered discounts of up to $12 an ounce over official domestic prices, inclusive of 10.75% import and 3% sales levies, down from last week's $40 discounts. Discounts are falling because of lower March imports and as the flow of old jewellery and coins, or scrap supplies, have come down. In China, discounts of $4.25-$6 per ounce were offered versus global benchmark spot rates. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.9% to settled at 18284 while prices down -89 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 52758 and below same could see a test of 52524 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 53168, a move above could see prices testing 53344.
Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 52524-53344.
Gold settled lower as a firm dollar weighed on the prices.
Prices ended the week with gains amid concerns of an escalation in the Ukraine conflict after Putin described the on-and-off peace negotiations as “a dead-end situation.”
Data showed the US annual inflation rate rose 8.5% in March, accelerating at its fastest pace since December 1981.

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.62% at 69032 after the dollar strengthened and yields rose as investors geared up for U.S. interest rate hikes, but safe-haven demand triggered by the Ukraine crisis and mounting inflation kept bullion on track to post a weekly gain. New York Fed President John Williams said the central bank should consider raising rates by a half percentage point at its next meeting in May. While central banks world-over are racing to tame surging inflation, the ECB stuck to its plans to dial back stimulus this year, a move seen as less aggressive in the face of soaring inflation. The European Central Bank left its policy rates unchanged and reaffirmed that it is set to end asset purchases in the third quarter. Federal Reserve board member Christopher Waller said that the central bank will continue with its plan for rate hikes to curb inflation even though the pace of price increases is likely to have peaked. The economy is strong enough to support higher rates, enabling the Fed to move prices down without causing a recession, Waller added. Data released by the Commerce Department this morning showed retail sales rose by 0.5% in March after climbing by an upwardly revised 0.8% in February. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.75% to settled at 7129 while prices down -434 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 68558 and below same could see a test of 68085 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 69456, a move above could see prices testing 69881.
Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 68085-69881.
Silver dropped after the dollar strengthened and yields rose as investors geared up for U.S. interest rate hikes
But safe-haven demand triggered by the Ukraine crisis and mounting inflation kept bullion on track to post a weekly gain.
ECB policy stance broadly unchanged to end stimulus in Q3

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 2.15% at 8078 amid reports that the European Union is considering phasing in a ban on Russian oil imports. News that Chinese refiners are likely to cut crude throughput by about 6% this month also contributed to the jump in oil prices. OPEC cut its forecast for growth in world oil demand in 2022 citing the impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, rising inflation as crude prices soar and the resurgence of the Omicron coronavirus variant in China. In a monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said world demand would rise by 3.67 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2022, down 480,000 bpd from its previous forecast. The invasion in February sent oil prices soaring above $139 a barrel, the highest since 2008, worsening inflationary pressures. Crude has since fallen as the United States and other nations announced plans to tap strategic oil stocks to boost supply, but remains over $100. Kazakhstan's giant Kashagan oilfield will halt output for one month in June because of planned maintenance, the energy ministry press office said. "The maintenance is planned to start in May this year and to last two and a half months with complete shutdown of production in June," the ministry said. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -25.56% to settled at 3248 while prices up 170 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7868 and below same could see a test of 7659 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8201, a move above could see prices testing 8325.
Trading Ideas:
Crude oil trading range for the day is 7659-8325.
Crude oil prices climbed higher amid reports that the European Union is considering phasing in a ban on Russian oil imports.
OPEC cut its forecast for growth in world oil demand in 2022 citing the impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine
Kazakhstan's Kashagan oilfield maintenance to halt June output

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 4.97% at 555.7 on a smaller than usual storage build and a recent drop in U.S. output. Also supporting prices in recent days, spot gas prices soared due to unusual cold in Alberta, Canada and unusual heat in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 15 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended April 8. U.S. natural gas production and demand will both rise in 2022 as the economy grows, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO). EIA projected that dry gas production will rise to 97.41 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2022 and 100.86 bcfd in 2023 from a record 93.57 bcfd in 2021. The agency also projected that gas consumption would rise to 84.11 bcfd in 2022 and 84.75 bcfd in 2023 from 82.97 bcfd in 2021. That compares with a record 85.29 bcfd in 2019. EIA's April supply projection for 2022 was bigger than its March forecast of 96.69 bcfd, but its demand projection was smaller than its March forecast of 84.59 bcfd for 2022. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.52% to settled at 11067 while prices up 26.3 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 537.8 and below same could see a test of 520 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 565.7, a move above could see prices testing 575.8.
Trading Ideas:
Natural gas trading range for the day is 520-575.8.
Natural gas gained on a smaller than usual storage build and a recent drop in U.S. output.
Also prices soared due to unusual cold in Alberta, Canada and unusual heat in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 15 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended April 8.

Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.34% at 822.65 bolstered by hopes for more stimulus measures by top metals consumer China and worries over tight supply amid the Ukraine crisis. Southern Copper Corp said its Peruvian mine remains closed after six weeks of a standoff with protesters as it accused Peru's government of failing to intervene to guarantee security for its 1,300 workers and their families. Top metals consumer China's race to stop the spread of COVID-19 is clogging highways and ports, stranding workers and shutting countless factories, and such disruptions are rippling through global supply chains for goods ranging from electric vehicles to iPhones. China will use timely cuts in banks' reserve requirement ratios and other policy tools to support the economy, the cabinet said, as headwinds increase amid COVID-19 outbreaks. China's copper imports in March fell for third month, slipping 8.8% from the same month a year earlier on easing demand, data from the General Administration of Customs showed. The world's top metals consumer brought in 504,009 tonnes of unwrought copper and products last month, down from 552,317 tonnes in March 2021 and compared with 459,461 tonnes a month earlier, according to the customs data. March imports of copper concentrate, or partially processed copper ore, totalled 2.18 million tonnes, according to the customs data. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.43% to settled at 3379 while prices up 2.8 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 817.9 and below same could see a test of 813 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 825.8, a move above could see prices testing 828.8.
Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 813-828.8.
Copper rose bolstered by hopes for more stimulus measures by top metals consumer China and worries over tight supply amid the Ukraine crisis.
China March copper imports down 8.8% from a year earlier
China has many favourable conditions to stabilise trade

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled flat at 372.7 paring all of its gains seen on supply worries as inventories shrank and smelters in Europe struggled amid a spike in energy costs. Zinc inventories in LME-registered warehouses have fallen to their lowest since June 2020 at 117,850 tonnes, with more zinc expected to leave the LME system as indicated by high levels of cancelled warrants, or metal earmarked for delivery. The premium for LME cash zinc over the three-month contract stands at about $64 a tonne, compared with a discount of about $15 a month ago, suggesting worries over low inventories. Rising prices for gas used to generate electricity that powers zinc smelters in Europe have curbed production. Mounting sanctions on Russia for invading Ukraine triggered an international energy crunch, which, in turn, led to many smelters halting or reducing zinc metal production. Adding to the bullish tone were better demand prospects in the metals market amid easing coronavirus-induced restrictions in top consumer China. China's economic growth is likely to slow to 5.0% in 2022 amid renewed COVID-19 outbreaks and a weakening global recovery, a Reuters poll showed, raising pressure on the central bank to ease policy further. Growth is then forecast to pick up to 5.2% in 2023. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.18% to settled at 1612 while prices down -0.15 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 369.8 and below same could see a test of 366.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 374.5, a move above could see prices testing 376.2.
Trading Ideas:
Zinc trading range for the day is 366.8-376.2.
Zinc settled flat paring all of its gains seen on supply worries as inventories shrank and smelters in Europe struggled amid a spike in energy costs.
Rising prices for gas used to generate electricity that powers zinc smelters in Europe have curbed production.
Zinc inventories in LME-registered warehouses have fallen to their lowest since June 2020 at 117,850 tonnes

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled up by 0.86% at 2501 as Sumitomo Metal sees global nickel demand for battery use at 410,000 in 2022. China manufacturing PMI which stood at 48.83, down 4.62% YoY, and the climate index was greatly impacted by the pandemic. On the supply side, the pandemic has brought transportation problems, and the supply of Jinchuan nickel in Shanghai is relatively tight. As the price difference between SHFE and LME nickel remains great, and the supply of Sumitomo, NORNICKEL, NIKKELVERK nickel and nickel briquette is still tight. In terms of nickel pig iron, the production and transportation problems of NPI plants in Liaoning and Inner Mongolia have been seriously affected, and the output is expected to fall in March. On the demand side, the cost efficiency of self-dissolved nickel briquette in the nickel sulphate plant has not recovered amid high futures prices. In addition, the output of the downstream precursor plants and the ternary cathode material plants did not contract in March thanks to their in-plant stocks, but the inventory in April will be low, hence there is possibility of production cuts. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed remain unchanged in open interest by 0% to settled at 161 while prices up 21.4 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 2501 and below same could see a test of 2501 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 2501, a move above could see prices testing 2501.
Trading Ideas:
Nickel trading range for the day is 2501-2501.
Nickel gained as Sumitomo Metal sees global nickel demand for battery use at 410,000 in 2022
However upside seen limited amid demand worries due to continued COVID-19 lockdowns in China weighed on the metals.
Nickel briquette prices stood above 200,000 yuan/mt, and demand from nickel sulphate plants may contract.

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.89% at 270.8 as Aluminium stocks in LME-approved warehouses are at 608,000 tonnes as of April 13, their lowest level since 2005. China's economic growth is likely to slow to 5.0% in 2022 amid renewed COVID-19 outbreaks and a weakening global recovery, a Reuters poll showed, raising pressure on the central bank to ease policy further. Growth is then forecast to pick up to 5.2% in 2023. Gross domestic product (GDP) likely grew 4.4% in the first quarter from a year earlier, according to the forecasts, outpacing the fourth-quarter's 4.0% due to a solid start in the first two months. GDP expanded 8.1% in 2021, its best showing in a decade, but momentum cooled markedly over the course of last year, weighed by debt problems in the property market and anti-virus measures that hit consumer confidence and spending. China's exports rose 13.4% in yuan terms in January-March from a year earlier, while imports increased 7.5%, customs data showed. China's new home prices stalled for a second straight month in March, official data showed, as growing COVID-19 lockdowns dampened consumer confidence and weighed on demand. China's central bank kept the interest rate unchanged as it rolled over maturing medium-term policy loans, matching market expectations, despite Beijing calling for more monetary stimulus to cushion an economic slowdown. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.25% to settled at 2583 while prices up 2.4 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 268.3 and below same could see a test of 265.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 272.5, a move above could see prices testing 274.2.
Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 265.8-274.2.
Aluminium gains as Aluminium stocks in LME-approved warehouses are at 608,000 tonnes as of April 13, their lowest level since 2005.
China's GDP growth seen slowing to 5.0% in 2022 on COVID hit
China Q1 exports rise 13.4% y/y in yuan terms, imports up 7.5%

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -1.26% at 1084.4 on profit booking after prices rose on reports that due to poor prices farmers has shifted to other crops resulting lower production. Germany's BASF said it would have to stop production if natural gas supplies fell to less than half its needs, as the world's largest chemicals group warned of the damage to its operations from Europe's power crunch. Mentha farming has lost its allure in Uttar Pradesh as farmers struggle without stable price, MSP and government support. High input costs and lack of support price have drastically brought down the return of farmers who have already been struggling to increase their incomes. Prices gains amid loss in production and improvement in demand while monsoon is yet to be seen as last year heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season came like a disaster for farmer. Last year the unseasonal heavy rainfall in May destroyed the ready to be harvested mentha crop. The month, as per the IMD, was the second wettest May in the past 121 years. Maharashtra and West Bengal lifts all its Covid curbs which will help Mentha oil and its derivatives to gains its demand as they are extensively used in food, pharmaceutical, perfumery, and flavouring industry. FMCG industry reels under extraordinary inflationary pressures, experts believe it will continue to grow in both volume and value, but margins will get squeezed. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -19.8 Rupees to end at 1196.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.78% to settled at 905 while prices down -13.8 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1074.2 and below same could see a test of 1064.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1096.2, a move above could see prices testing 1108.1.
Trading Ideas:
Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1064.1-1108.1.
In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -19.8 Rupees to end at 1196.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.
Mentha oil dropped on profit booking after prices rose on reports that due to poor prices farmers has shifted to other crops resulting lower production
Germany's BASF, says it may halt production at world’s biggest chemicals plant in Ludwigshafen if gas supply is halved under Germany's emergency plan.
Maharashtra and West Bengal lifts all its Covid curbs which will help Mentha to gains its demand

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -2.85% at 9192 as new season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season. As per first advance estimates by the Govt for 2021/22 season, the production of turmeric is pegged at 11.76 lakh tonnes in 2021-22 against 11.24 lt in 2020-21. As per govt data, turmeric exports in Jan 2022 is down by 25% m/m at 10,600 tonnes Vs 14275 tonnes in Dec 2021. In Feb, turmeric exports recorded lower by 17% on year at 10400 tonnes vs 12,575 tonnes while in FY 2021/22 (Apr-Feb), exports down 20% at 1.37 lakh tons compared to last year but higher by 8.3% compared with 5-year average. Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones. The farmers, who incurred losses during this period due to low price, are hoping to get good price this year, so that they could clear their dues to some extent. The market sentiment is buoyant mainly since the ending stocks are expected to be 17-18 lakh bags (50 kg each) this year against 25 lakh bags last year. Spices Board data showed turmeric production this year being projected at 11.01 lakh tonnes against 11.78 lakh tonnes last year, mainly on the output being affected in Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Haryana. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 9153.5 Rupees gained 17.8 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.44% to settled at 17235 while prices down -270 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 9060 and below same could see a test of 8928 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 9426, a move above could see prices testing 9660.
Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 8928-9660.
Turmeric dropped as new season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season.
As per first advance estimates, the production of turmeric is pegged at 11.76 lakh tonnes in 2021-22 against 11.24 lt in 2020-21.
In FY 2021/22 (Apr-Feb), exports down 20% at 1.37 lakh tons compared to last year but higher by 8.3% compared with 5-year average.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 9153.5 Rupees gained 17.8 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -1.63% at 22305 as new crop arrivals started coming with moisture content 8% to 10%. The export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.44 lakh tonnes in the previous year. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. There were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand. In 2021-22, the area under cumin in Gujarat is only 3.07 lakh hectares as compared to 4.69 lakh hectares in the same period last year and production is expected to decline by 41% to 2.37 lakh tonnes as compared to last year's 4 lakh tonnes as per second advance estimates. The area under jeera has decreased by about 30% in Rajasthan this year, to 5.39 lakh hectares (lh) from 7.7 lh last year, Spices Board officials confirmed. According to the data released by the commerce department, cumin exports in January 2022 increased by 19% to 14,725 tonnes as compared to 12,385 tonnes in December 2021. Carry-forward stocks would be approximately 25 lakh bags. Last year's jeera crop was 93 lakh bags, with a carryover stock of 20 lakh bags. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -88.9 Rupees to end at 22161.1 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.54% to settled at 15498 while prices down -370 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 21980 and below same could see a test of 21660 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 22725, a move above could see prices testing 23150.
Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 21660-23150.
Jeera dropped as new crop arrivals started coming with moisture content 8% to 10%
The export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.44 lakh tonnes in the previous year
There were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand.
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -88.9 Rupees to end at 22161.1 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 1.01% at 44050 due to concerns over production, slow arrivals, better domestic and exports demand. Domestic cotton arrivals down 25% or 88.95 lakh bales so far this season to around 238 lakh bales compared to last year. As per USDA report, all cotton planted area for coming season (2022) is estimated at 12.2 million acres, up 9 percent from last year. In its latest Apr report, the USDA increase global cotton production forecast in 2021-22 to 120.2 million bales (1 US bale= 218kg), compared to 119.9 million bales in Feb 2022. India’s crop is being unchanged at 26.50 million bales. India allowed duty-free imports of cotton until Sept. 30 as prices in the local market jumped to a record high because of a drop in the production, the government said in a notification. The world's biggest producer of the fibre also removed the Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess (AIDC) on the imports, the government said. The total import taxes on cotton was earlier 11%, said Atul Ganatra, president of the Cotton Association of India (CAI). Duty-free imports will help textile mills, which could import around 2.5 million bales of cotton in the 2021/22 marketing year ending on Sept. 30, Ganatra said. In spot market, Cotton gained by 320 Rupees to end at 44410 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.02% to settled at 4167 while prices up 440 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 43620 and below same could see a test of 43200 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 44730, a move above could see prices testing 45420.
Trading Ideas:
Cotton trading range for the day is 43200-45420.
Cotton gained due to concerns over production, slow arrivals, better domestic and exports demand.
India allowed duty-free imports of cotton until Sept. 30 as prices in the local market jumped to a record high because of a drop in the production.
India's cotton output is likely to fall to 33.51 million bales in the current year from last year's 35.3 million bales, estimates CAI.
In spot market, Cotton gained  by 320 Rupees to end at 44410 Rupees.

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