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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.07% at 59432 as the dollar firmed and hopes of a soft landing for a resilient U.S. economy dented safe-haven demand for bullion. Initial claims edged only slightly higher as expected, job cuts were the lowest in nearly a year and both labour costs and productivity beat forecasts, in a sign the labour market remains robust. The ADP data also pointed to a strong private sector employment gain. The downturn in euro zone business activity worsened more than expected in July, while separate data pointed to producer prices falling for a sixth consecutive month in June. European Central Bank board member Fabio Panetta backed keeping rates high for longer over raising them further, arguing "inflation risks are balanced and economic activity is weak". India's gold demand in 2023 could fall 10% from a year ago to their lowest in three years, as record high prices are dampening retail purchases, the World Gold Council (WGC) said. The lower purchases in the world's second-biggest gold consumer could limit a rally in global prices. Falling demand for gold imports could also help to narrow Indian gold consumption in the April-June quarter fell 7% to 158.1 metric tons, as both jewellery and investment demand dropped. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.32% to settle at 14874 while prices are down -39 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 59290 and below same could see a test of 59147 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 59548, a move above could see prices testing 59663.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 59147-59663.
* Gold fell amid firm dollar and hopes for soft landing of resilient U.S. economy
* Initial claims edged only slightly higher as expected, job cuts were the lowest in nearly
* Dollar index at 4-week peak, US bond yields highest since Nov

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.6% at 72522 as yield on the US 10-year Treasury note continued to rise to 4.14% in August, a level not seen since the beginning of November, as traders digest fresh economic data. Initial claims edged only slightly higher as expected, job cuts were the lowest in nearly a year and both labour costs and productivity beat forecasts, in a sign the labour market remains robust. The ADP data also pointed to a strong private sector employment gain. The payrolls report due Friday will now be keenly watched for further updates on the jobs market. The data continues to proven the US’s resilience to higher interest rates, spurring some bets of another rate hike this year. Meanwhile, the Treasury Department announced on Wednesday it plans to gradually increase the size of its auctions and will issue $103 billion of securities next week, slightly more than forecast. Nonfarm business sector labor productivity in the US increased 3.7 percent in the second quarter of 2023, rebounding from a downwardly revised 1.2 percent fall in the previous quarter and compared to forecasts of 2%, preliminary estimates showed. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 2.31% to settle at 15829 while prices are down -438 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 72056 and below same could see a test of 71590 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 72900, a move above could see prices testing 73278.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 71590-73278.
* Silver dropped as traders digest fresh economic data
* US 10-year yield rose to 4.14% to a level of November 2022
* The ADP data pointed to a strong private sector employment gain.


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 3.13% at 6761 as after Saudi Arabia extended its voluntary one million barrel per day output cut by another month to the end of September. Saudi Arabia will extend a voluntary oil output cut of one million barrels per day for another month to include September. "This additional voluntary cut comes to reinforce the precautionary efforts made by OPEC+ countries with the aim of supporting the stability and balance of oil markets". Russia will cut oil exports by 300,000 barrels per day in September, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said. "Within the efforts to ensure the oil market remains balanced Russia will continue to voluntarily reduce its oil supply in the month of September, now by 300,000 barrels per day, by cutting its exports by that quantity to global markets," Novak said. U.S. crude stocks fell the most on record last week as exports topped 5 million barrels per day and refineries processed more crude, the Energy Information Administration said. Most of the fall in crude stocks came from a record drop in stockpiles held in the refining hubs of the U.S. Gulf Coast. Stocks there fell by 15.57 million barrels as refiners in the region processed the most crude since August 2022, the EIA said. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 31.07% to settle at 9500 while prices are up 205 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6593 and below same could see a test of 6425 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6854, a move above could see prices testing 6947.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6425-6947.
* Crude oil up gains Saudi Arabia extends cuts.
* Saudi will extend the voluntary cut of 1 mln b/d through September
* Russia’s Deputy PM Novak: Oil export cut at 300,000 bpd.

 

Natural Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 3.99% at 213.7 on forecasts for lower output and hotter weather over the next two weeks than previously expected, especially in Texas. That price increase came despite a decline in the amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and ahead of a federal report expected to show a much smaller-than-usual storage build last week as power generators burned record amounts of gas for three days in a row to keep air conditioners humming during an extreme heat wave blanketing much of the country. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states slid to 101.6 bcfd so far in August, down from 101.8 bcfd in June. That compares with a monthly record of 102.2 bcfd in May. Meteorologists forecast the weather in the Lower 48 states will remain hotter than normal through at least Aug. 18. With pipeline and LNG exports expected to increase, Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 104.7 bcfd this week to 105.2 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were similar to Refinitiv's outlook on Wednesday. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -23.13% to settle at 38750 while prices are up 8.2 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 208 and below same could see a test of 202.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 217.2, a move above could see prices testing 220.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 202.2-220.6.
* Natural gas rose on forecasts for lower output
* That price increase came despite a decline in the amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants
* The U.S. EIA said utilities added 14 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage


Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 1.24% at 746.25 amid persistent concerns that tight supply and increasing demand may cause shortages. State-owned Chilean miner Codelco revised its output projections by 70,000 tonnes to 1.31-1.35 million tonnes this year due to explosions and delays in key mines, shortly after the giant reported that production in the first half of 2023 tanked by 14% year-on-year. The data follows a 7% output decline from the company in 2022, aligning with warnings by miners and market players that low supply levels are unable to keep up with rising demand due to copper’s key use in sustainability-oriented infrastructure. Key manufacturing PMIs in China pointed to another factory activity contraction in July, strengthening the case for the government to step in and support the country’s industrial sector. Hot GDP data from the US also added to bullish demand calls, supporting prices. The global refined copper market showed a 65,000 metric tons deficit in May, compared with a 33,000 metric tons surplus in April, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. For the first 5 months of the year, the market was in a 287,000 metric tons surplus compared with a 74,000 metric tons deficit in the same period a year earlier, the ICSG said. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -6.48% to settle at 4804 while prices are up 9.15 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 737.8 and below same could see a test of 729.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 750.8, a move above could see prices testing 755.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 729.2-755.2.
* Copper gains amid persistent concerns over tight supply and increasing demand.
* Chilean miner Codelco revised its output projections by 70,000 tonnes to 1.31-1.35 million tonnes this year
* Copper market in 65,000 metric tons deficit in May 2023 – ICSG

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.47% at 223.5 as China’s government promised to consolidate the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market and boost the real estate industry. The World Bank have raised their expectations for China's economy growth this year. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi expressed willingness to strengthen strategic cooperation with Turkey. U.S. Treasury Department officials said they would take "targeted" actions against China, but emphasized that it was not decoupling. New U.S. single-family home sales slipped in June after three straight months of gains, but the trend remained strong as a severe shortage of existing homes underpinned demand. Global refined zinc supply is expected to increase by 1.9%, considering a low base year and as energy costs in Europe ease, while power curbs in China limit zinc smelter production. The global zinc market surplus slipped to 53,000 metric tons in May, down from 64,000 tons a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. During the first five months of 2023, ILZSG data showed a surplus of 267,000 metric tons, versus a surplus of 189,000 tons in the same period of 2022. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -4.68% to settle at 3525 while prices are up 1.05 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 220.9 and below same could see a test of 218.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 225.1, a move above could see prices testing 226.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 218.1-226.5.
* Zinc gains as China’s government promised to the stabilization of economy.
* The World Bank have raised their expectations for China's economy growth this year.
* The global zinc market surplus slipped to 53,000 metric tons in May, down from 64,000 tons a month earlier


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.88% at 201.7 as China’s favorable policies have promoted real estate, automobile, and other related consumption to gradually pick up. However, the resumption of aluminium production in Yunnan is speeding up, and it is expected that some large smelters in the region will be able to produce at full capacity by the end of August, potentially fueling the total domestic operating capacity to a record high. At present, the amount of resumed production is mainly liquid aluminum, and there is no large aluminum ingot oversupply pressure. The premium for aluminium shipments to Japanese buyers for July to September was set at $127.5 per metric ton, near the previous quarter's levels, as local demand remained sluggish with ample stocks. Aluminium stocks at three major Japanese ports were at 357,490 metric tons at the end of June, according to Marubeni, above the 250,000-300,000 tons that are considered appropriate. Japan's imports of aluminium ingot in January-June fell by 32% from a year earlier, with those from Russia plunging by 59%, the trade data shows. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.83% to settle at 3457 while prices are up 1.75 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 200.1 and below same could see a test of 198.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 202.6, a move above could see prices testing 203.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 198.5-203.5.
* Aluminium gains as China’s policies promote real estate, automobile to pick up.
* However, the resumption of aluminium production in Yunnan is speeding up
* Japan buyers agree to pay Q3 aluminium premium of $127.5/T


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.19% at 872.1 amid rise in supplies of new crop. Supplies have increased in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar as harvesting activities has picked up. Production prospects have improved with rising yield supported by favorable weather condition. Moreover, reports of slack export of menthol will put pressure on prices. Rising menthol imports, as well as China's limited purchasing, will put pressure on pricing. Mentha exports during Apr-May 2023, dropped by 51.60 percent to 183.98 tonnes as compared to 380.12 tonnes exported during Apr-May 2022. In May 2023 around 86.13 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 97.85 tonnes in April 2023 showing a drop of 13.60%. In May 2023 around 86.13 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 209.90 tonnes in May 2022 showing a drop of 58.96%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 4.1 Rupees to end at 1024.8 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.61% to settle at 918 while prices are down -1.7 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 867.5 and below same could see a test of 862.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 876.7, a move above could see prices testing 881.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 862.9-881.3.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 4.1 Rupees to end at 1024.8 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Menthaoil settled down amid rise in supplies of new crop.
* Supplies have increased in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar as harvesting activities has picked up.
* Production prospects have improved with rising yield supported by favorable weather condition.


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 2.48% at 15940 driven by consistent demand from the domestic market and export. Moreover, farmers and stockists are holding onto their stocks in anticipation of price increases due to lower sowing acreage and also lower ending stocks, resulting in a supply shortage in the cash markets. The kharif sowing acreage is expected to decrease during the current season. In Maharashtra, the sowing area is projected to decline by 10%-20%. Similarly, in Tamil Nadu, the acreage is expected to decrease by 10%-15%. In Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, there is an anticipated decline of 18%-22% in the acreage compared to the previous season. Support also seen as the untimely rains that occurred in various places in the Andhra Pradesh damaged turmeric crops causing huge loss to the farmers. Turmeric exports during Apr-May 2023, rose by 27.55 percent at 39,418.73 tonnes as compared to 30,903.38 tonnes exported during Apr-May 2022. In May 2023 around 19,827.86 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 19,590.87 tonnes in April 2023 showing a rise of 1.21%. In May 2023 around 19,827.86 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 17,138.35 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 15.69%. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 14066.75 Rupees gained 295.7 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -19.56% to settle at while prices are up 386 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 15410 and below same could see a test of 14878 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 16264, a move above could see prices testing 16586.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14878-16586.
* Turmeric gains supported by fall in area and slower sowing progress.
* Farmers and stockists are holding onto their stocks in anticipation of price increases due to lower sowing acreage
* In May 2023 around 19,827.86 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 19,590.87 tonnes in April 2023 showing a rise of 1.21%.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 14066.75 Rupees gained 295.7 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.02% at 61855 pared gains on profit booking after prices rose as arrivals in Gujarat and Rajasthan have decreased due to heavy rainfall. Farmers need assistance to bring their produce to the market. However, after the rains subside, cumin arrivals are expected to increase, potentially impacting market dynamics. Support also seen due to good export demand and expectations of lower stocks end of the current marketing year. Prices rose on crop worries grow due to unseasonal rains and hailstorms in Rajasthan, the major producing state. Cumin imports in May 2023 reached 210 metric tons, showing a substantial increase of 227.73% compared to the previous month's import volume of 64 metric tons. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. Jeera exports during Apr-May 2023, rose by 67.90 percent at 42,988.50 tonnes as compared to 25,603.35 tonnes exported during Apr-May 2022. In May 2023 around 25,903.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 17,084.87 tonnes in April 2023 showing a rise of 51.52%. In May 2023 around 25,903.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 14,894.62 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 73.91%. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 266.85 Rupees to end at 61667.45 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -7.94% to settle at while prices are down -15 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 61195 and below same could see a test of 60530 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 62630, a move above could see prices testing 63400.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 60530-63400.
* Jeera pared gains on profit booking after prices rose as arrivals decreased
* Traders are avoiding bulk buying in anticipation of rise in seasonal supply of jeera in Gujarat and Rajasthan.
* The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 266.85 Rupees to end at 61667.45 Rupees per 100 kg.

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