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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.47% at 59612 after three Fed officials kept the door open to more rate hikes to lower high levels of inflation. Boston Fed President Susan Collins expects one more quarter-point rate increase, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said he remains undecided on how to adjust rates at the May meeting. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the Fed needs to focus on lowering inflation back to 2 percent and that it's not yet fully clear what impact the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank will have on the economy. Gold consumers in top hub China slowed purchases as a steady rise in domestic prices started to bite, forcing dealers to offer discounts for the first time in months. In China, bullion changed hands at anywhere between $10 an ounce premium to $10 discounts versus global benchmark spot prices versus $19-$25 quoted last week. Prices in India were still near a record high of 60,455 rupees per 10 grams. This forced dealers to offer discounts of up to $26 an ounce over official domestic prices easing from the more than one-year high discounts of $57 last week. Jewelers have been receiving decent amount of scrap gold as most retail consumers have been replacing old jewellery. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.04% to settle at 18529 while prices are down -283 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 59439 and below same could see a test of 59265 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 59926, a move above could see prices testing 60239.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 59265-60239.
* Gold remained pressured after Fed officials kept the door open to more rate hikes
* Fed policymakers suggested more monetary tightening would be needed to tame inflation, even after the recent turmoil in the banking sector
* Gold consumers China slowed purchases as a steady rise in domestic prices started to bite, forcing dealers to offer discounts for the first time in months.


Silver
Silver yesterday settled up by 0.62% at 72218 as investors pulled back bets on further monetary tightening after the core PCE price inflation, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge to measure inflation, slowed more than expected to 4.6% in February, the lowest in 15 months. Fed policymakers suggested more monetary tightening would be needed to tame inflation, even after the recent turmoil in the banking sector. Money market bets are now pricing in an over 50% chance that the US central bank will raise rates by 25 basis points in May and pause afterward. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the Fed needs to focus on lowering inflation back to 2 percent and that it's not yet fully clear what impact the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank will have on the economy. U.S. consumer spending rose moderately in February, and while inflation cooled, it remained elevated enough to possibly allow the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates one more time this year. The slowdown in consumer spending reported by the Commerce Department followed the largest gain in nearly two years in January. Consumer spending, which remains supported by a tight labor market, appears on track to pick up this quarter after growing at its slowest pace in 2-1/2 years in the fourth quarter. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 6.94% to settle at 15949 while prices are up 444 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 71649 and below same could see a test of 71081 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 72698, a move above could see prices testing 73179.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 71081-73179.
* Silver gains as investors pulled back bets on further monetary tightening
* Money market bets are now pricing in an over 50% chance that the US central bank will raise rates by 25 basis points in May
* Fed Kashkari said the Fed needs to focus on lowering inflation back to 2 percent.


Crude oil
Crude oil yesterday settled up by 1.74% at 6199 underpinned by supply concerns and an improving demand outlook. A dispute involving Kurdish authorities which halted exports of around 400,000 barrels a day from the Ceyhan port in Turkey tightened the market, and seemed unlikely to be resolved anytime soon. OPEC oil output fell in March due to oilfield maintenance in Angola and a halt in some of Iraq's exports, adding to the impact of strong adherence by top producers to a supply cut deal by the wider OPEC+ alliance. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has pumped 28.90 million barrels per day (bpd) this month, the survey found, down 70,000 bpd from February. Output is down more than 700,000 bpd from September. OPEC+ lowered its output target by 2 million bpd, of which about 1.27 million bpd was to come from the 10 participating OPEC countries. The target remains in place for March. With the declines in Angola and Iraq this month, compliance with the agreement increased to 173% of pledged cuts, according to the survey, against 169% in February. Output is significantly undershooting the targeted amount by 930,000 bpd because many producers – notably Nigeria and Angola – lack the capacity to pump at the agreed levels. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 21.05% to settle at 8057 while prices are up 106 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6112 and below same could see a test of 6025 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6252, a move above could see prices testing 6305.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6025-6305.
* Crude oil rose underpinned by supply concerns and an improving demand outlook.
* OPEC oil output falls on Angola, Iraq outages
* OPEC output falls 70,000 bpd from February



Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 4.91% at 183.8 on forecasts for more demand than previously expected with rising amounts of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants, but they remained on track to drop by a record 51% this quarter, Feedgas to those LNG export plants climbed after Freeport LNG's facility in Texas exited an eight-month outage in February and returned to near full power. Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 98.6 bcfd so far in March, up from 98.1 bcfd in February. The monthly record is 99.9 bcfd in November 2022. Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly near normal through April 13. With warmer spring-like weather expected to keep reducing the amount of gas burned to heat homes and businesses, Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would drop from 110.6 bcfd this week to 104.1 bcfd next week and 103.8 bcfd in two weeks. The forecast for next week was higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Thursday. Mild winter weather allowed utilities to leave more gas in storage so far this year and should let them start injecting fuel into inventories at the beginning of April. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -14.23% to settle at 39983 while prices are up 8.6 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 176.5 and below same could see a test of 169.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 188.4, a move above could see prices testing 193.
Trading Ideas:
# Natural gas trading range for the day is 169.2-193.
# Natural gas jumped on forecasts for more demand than previously expected
# Feedgas to those LNG export plants climbed after Freeport LNG's facility in Texas exited an eight-month outage in February
# Working stocks in underground storage amounted to 1,900 billion cubic feet on March 17, the highest for the time of year since 2020



Copper
Copper yesterday settled flat at 779.55 as Chinese factory growth slowed in March. The numbers beat expectations but highlighted doubts about the strength of China's post-COVID manufacturing recovery. Chinese Yangshan copper import premiums, meanwhile, have fallen to $35.50 a tonne from $50 in mid-March, suggesting lacklustre demand for overseas metal. However, copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell again in the week to Friday and stocks in the LME and COMEX exchange systems are low by historical standards. Copper output in Chile, the world's largest producer, in February fell 3.7% year on year to 384.462 tonnes, the country's INE statistics agency said. China's top copper smelters agreed on a guide price for treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) for copper concentrate processing in the second quarter of 2023 at $90 per tonne and 9.0 cents per pound, two sources with knowledge of the matter said. The new prices are lower than the guidance for the charges set at $93 per tonne and 9.3 cents per pound for the first quarter this year. Improving demand from China, depleted global inventories and constrained supply will keep industrial metals relatively resilient to any mild macroeconomic headwinds. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.79% to settle at 3734 while prices are remain unchanged 0 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 774.7 and below same could see a test of 769.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 783.2, a move above could see prices testing 786.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 769.7-786.7.
* Copper settled flat as Chinese factory growth slowed in March.
* Chile's copper output in February down 3.7% y/y
* China smelter group sets copper TC/RC guide price for Q2 2023 at $90/T


Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.89% at 256.15 as China manufacturing growth eases in March. Data shows that social inventories of zinc ingots across seven major markets in China totalled 151,900 mt as of today March 31, down 3,500 mt from a week earlier and 500 mt lower than this Monday (March 27). In Shanghai, the smelters basically shipped cargoes directly to downstream enterprises or to other markets, leading to low arrivals in Shanghai market. Meanwhile, downstream purchases were mainly made based on rigid demand constrained by high zinc prices. The official NBS Manufacturing PMI declined to 51.9 in March of 2023 from 52.6 in the previous month, which was the fastest pace since April 2012, compared to market estimates of 51.5. The official NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI for China climbed to 58.2 in March 2023 from 56.3 a month earlier, pointing to the highest reading since May 2011, boosted by the removal of a zero-COVID policy. The NBS Composite PMI Output Index in China rose to a new record peak of 57.0 in March 2023 from 56.4 in the previous month. Factory activity continued its robust growth while the service sector grew at the fastest pace in nearly 12 years. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 2.47% to settle at 2577 while prices are down -2.3 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 253.5 and below same could see a test of 250.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 259.1, a move above could see prices testing 262.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 250.8-262.
* Zinc prices dropped as China manufacturing growth eases in March
* China’s factory activity continued its robust growth while the service sector grew at the fastest pace in nearly 12 years.
* Data shows that social inventories of zinc ingots totalled 151,900 mt, down 3,500 mt from a week earlier


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.74% at 210.1 as domestic aluminium ingot social inventory fell rapidly as downstream consumption continued to pick up. On the fundamentals, the resumption of production by aluminium smelters in Sichuan, Guizhou and other places has led to a slight recovery on the supply side. The aluminium ingot social inventories across China’s eight major markets stood at 1.13 million mt as of March 23, down 85,000 mt from a week ago and 47,000 mt from Monday March 20. The figure, albeit up 85,000 mt from the same period last year, has fallen 143,000 mt from the peak recorded in early March. Stocks across three major markets dropped sharply, led by south China, where fewer cargoes arrived following output cuts by smelters earlier while demand recovered. After two weeks of accumulation, the domestic aluminium billet social inventory dipped 1,500 mt from a week ago to 167,900 mt as of March 23. Stable aluminium billet production ensured smooth arrivals. The imports of unwrought aluminium alloy stood at 81,000 mt in January 2023, down 30.5% year-on-year and 12.3% month-on-month, according to General Administration of Customs. Aluminium stocks at three major Japanese ports fell by 2.6% to 382,400 tonnes at the end of February from 392,500 tonnes at the end of January. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 2.23% to settle at 3077 while prices are up 1.55 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 208.4 and below same could see a test of 206.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 211, a move above could see prices testing 211.9.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 206.7-211.9.
* Aluminum gains as China’s aluminium ingot social inventory fell
* Japan aluminium stocks down 2.6% in Feb from Jan
* The output for the months of January and February 2023 was 6.5 million tonnes, an increase of 5.3% on year


Mentha oil
Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.03% at 1004.8 on short covering after prices dropped as demand was poor due to recession fears and global banking turmoil. The collapse of California’s Silicon Valley Bank and troubles at Swiss lender Credit Suisse have shaken the financial markets and dampened the outlook for oil consumption. Market participants expect prices to remain under pressure until demand recovers and market sentiment improves. Mentha exports during Apr-Jan 2023, dropped by 13.65 percent to 2,016.77 tonnes as compared to 2,335.63 tonnes exported during Apr-Jan 2022. In January 2023 around 233.21 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 298.38 tonnes in December 2022 showing a drop of 21.84%. In January 2023 around 233.21 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 171.07 tonnes in January 2022 showing a rise of 36.32%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 1.1 Rupees to end at 1179.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.09% to settle at 749 while prices are up 0.3 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1001.2 and below same could see a test of 997.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1008.5, a move above could see prices testing 1012.3.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 997.7-1012.3.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 1.1 Rupees to end at 1179.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil gained on short covering after prices dropped as demand was poor due to recession fears and global banking turmoil.
* Mentha exports during Apr-Jan 2023, dropped by 13.65 percent to 2,016.77 tonnes
* In January 2023 around 233.21 tonnes was exported against 298.38 tonnes in December 2022 showing a drop of 21.84%.


Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.44% at 6856 on short covering after prices dropped as turmeric harvesting has started in the key growing regions and farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks, in the fear of further decline in prices. In AP (Nizamabad) Turmeric market around 5,000-7,000 bags are arriving on an average daily basis. In the Erode spot market 400-600 bags are reported on a daily basis, In the Sangli district it is around 3500-7000 bags. Coupled with weak demand in the export and domestic market prices are trading at lower levels (in the current season). Turmeric exports during Apr-Jan 2023, rose by 7.76 percent at 1,36,492.59 tonnes as compared to 1,26,659.01 tonnes exported during Apr-Jan 2022. In January 2023 around 12,484.25 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,039.57 tonnes in December 2022 showing a rise of 3.69%. In January 2023 around 12,484.25 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 10,558.26 tonnes in January 2022 showing a rise of 18.24%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6901.05 Rupees dropped -76.7 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -4.45% to settle at 9125 while prices are up 30 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6808 and below same could see a test of 6760 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6902, a move above could see prices testing 6948.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6760-6948.
* Turmeric gained on short covering after prices dropped as turmeric harvesting has started and farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks.
* Farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks, in the fear of further decline in prices
* The crop is good this season despite some projection of a lower crop.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6901.05 Rupees dropped -76.7 Rupees.


Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.49% at 35605 as unfavorable weather conditions affecting supply from main producing areas. This year, there is a stock deficit, lesser output, and increased export demand for jeera. Cumin harvests in Gujarat are now higher than last year, but recent rains are projected to lower yields by at least 20%. Gujarat produced 2.15 lakh metric tonnes (MT) of cumin in 2023. Currently, over 30% of Gujarat's crop remains unharvested in the districts of Kutch and Banaskantha. Due to unseasonal rain in certain regions, a portion of this crop is likely to be damaged or of low quality. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. One bag holds 55kg. This will result in a demand-supply imbalance. Currently, at least 70% of the crop in Rajasthan and around 30% in Gujarat have yet to be harvested. Because of the rain in both states, the total yield will be reduced. The cumin crop was destroyed by two bouts of unseasonal rainfall during the harvest season. In comparison to the planned arrival of 70 lakh bags, the stock will be reduced to 60-65 lakh bags, with a carry-forward stock of 5 lakh bags from last year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 354.15 Rupees to end at 34373.65 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -6.07% to settle at 4920 while prices are up 175 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 35420 and below same could see a test of 35235 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 35840, a move above could see prices testing 36075.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 35235-36075.
* Jeera prices rose as unfavorable weather conditions affecting supply.
* Support also seen amid a stock deficit, lesser output, and increased export demand for jeera
* Cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 354.15 Rupees to end at 34373.65 Rupees per 100 kg.

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