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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.57% at 58006 after global stocks rebounded from recent losses as risk sentiment improved after Credit Suisse secured a lifeline from the Swiss National Bank. In the US, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank collapsed and shares of First Republic Bank remain under heavy pressure. At the same time, Credit Suisse said it would borrow up to $54 billion from the country's central bank under a covered loan facility and a short-term liquidity facility. Meanwhile, the ECB lifted interest rates by 50bps as initially pledged, pushing borrowing costs to fresh 2008 highs, aiming to fight high inflation, while noticing that the Euro Area banking sector is resilient and standing ready to provide liquidity support to the financial system if necessary. The Fed is set to decide on monetary policy next week. China's central bank announced it had bought more gold nearly 25 metric tons in February, the fourth consecutive monthly increase. The February purchase follows about 32 tons of gold added in November, the first officially recorded increase since September 2019, according to data released by the People's Bank of China. By the end of February, China's total gold reserves rose to around 2,050.34 tons, PBOC data showed. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -6.69% to settle at 8689 while prices are down -330 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 57725 and below same could see a test of 57445 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 58405, a move above could see prices testing 58805.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 57445-58805.
* Gold dropped as risk sentiment improved after Credit Suisse secured a lifeline.
* The ECB lifted interest rates by 50bps as initially pledged, pushing borrowing costs to fresh 2008 highs, aiming to fight high inflation
* Commerzbank sees gold prices at $1,800/t in Q223

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -1.14% at 66531 after Swiss regulators provided Credit Suisse, which is at the center of Europe's banking rout, a liquidity lifeline. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell by 20,000 from the previous week to 192,000 on the week ending March 11th, well below expectations of 205,000. The result pointed to further evidence of a stubbornly tight labor market in the United States, in line with the hot payroll figures for February and erasing signals of higher unemployment after the prior week’s two-month high. The ECB raised interest rates by 50 bps as expected, further pushing borrowing costs to the highest level since late 2008, in order to help temper the region’s stubbornly high inflation. Policymakers also said the euro area banking sector was resilient, with strong capital and liquidity positions, and that they were monitoring current market tensions closely, while they stood ready to respond as necessary to preserve price stability and maintain financial stability in the region. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said last week that a big interest rate increase was “very likely” but markets sharply reduced bets for a 50 bps move after the Silicon Valley Bank collapsed in the US and European bank shares plunged. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -7.64% to settle at 11608 while prices are down -768 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 65883 and below same could see a test of 65235 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 67506, a move above could see prices testing 68481.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 65235-68481.
* Silver dropped after Swiss regulators provided Credit Suisse, a liquidity lifeline
* The ECB raised interest rates by 50 bps as expected, further pushing borrowing costs to the highest level since late 2008
* The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell by 20,000 from the previous week to 192,000

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 2.35% at 5695 on reports that Saudi Arabia's energy minister and Russia's deputy prime minister met to discuss about ways to enhance market stability. OPEC+ considers this week's slide in oil prices to a more than one-year low to be driven by financial fears, not any imbalance between demand and supply, and expects the market to stabilise, four delegates from the oil producer group told. Meanwhile, figures showed that China's economic activity picked up in the first two months of 2023 after the end of strict COVID-19 containment measures. Monthly report from the International Energy Agency flagged an expected boost to oil demand from China, a day after OPEC increased its Chinese demand forecast for 2023. OPEC raised its forecast for Chinese oil demand growth in 2023 in light of the country's exit from the zero-Covid policy. The International Energy Agency also echoed a bullish outlook for oil demand, pointing to a massive boost from resumed air travel and China's economic reopening after COVID-19 curbs. On the supply side, Saudi Arabia energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said OPEC+ would stick to production cuts agreed upon in October until the year's end. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -13.74% to settle at 7247 while prices are up 131 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5518 and below same could see a test of 5342 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5799, a move above could see prices testing 5904.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5342-5904.
* Crude oil prices gains as Saudi, Russia meeting calms markets
* U.S. crude stockpiles build more than expected
* OPEC raised its forecast for Chinese oil demand growth in 2023 in light of the country's exit from the zero-Covid policy.

Natural Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 3.39% at 210.3 as gas flows to LNG export plants have been on track to hit record highs after Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas became operational again. US utilities pulled 58 bcf (billion cubic feet) of gas from storage during the week ended March 10, 2023, less than market expectations of a 62 bcf drop. Last week's decrease cut stockpiles to 1.972 trillion cubic feet (tcf), 521 bcf higher than last year at this time and 378 bcf above the five-year average of 1.594 tcf. Data provider Refinitiv estimated 281 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks, down from 300 HDDs estimated. HDDs estimate demand to heat homes and businesses by measuring the number of degrees a day's average temperature is below 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius). Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would slide from 120.5 bcfd this week to 117.8 bcfd next week. Meanwhile, Federal regulators approved the restart of two of Freeport LNG's three liquefaction trains (Trains 2 and 3) in February and the third train (Train 1) on March 8. Liquefaction trains turn gas into LNG. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -8.37% to settle at 28151 while prices are up 6.9 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 204.8 and below same could see a test of 199.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 213.5, a move above could see prices testing 216.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 199.4-216.8.
* Natural gas gains as gas flows to LNG export facilities approach record levels
* US natural gas stocks fall less than expected: EIA
* Average US gas demand, is expected to fall to 120.0 bcfd next week from 120.8 bcfd this week due to milder weather.


Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.37% at 751.3 s fears of banking instability dented expectations of higher demand from key consumers. Meanwhile, soaring shelter costs drove US core inflation to overshoot expectations and solidified bets of a rate hike from the Federal Reserve next week. Also, industrial production in China missed projections for the first two months of the year, undermining the impact of the country’s reopening on economic activity. Still, tight supplies limited the pullback in copper prices. Mining exports from major producer Peru sank nearly 20% annually in January due to the widespread protests that halted the activity. Also, inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped for the second week to their lowest since January. In China, the biggest consumer, Yangshan copper import premiums have begun to rise, pointing to improving demand. First Quantum Minerals, the operator of the Cobre Panama mine, has resumed operations to normal levels at the mine, gold-focused royalty and streaming company Franco-Nevada Corp said on Wednesday. Franco-Nevada has contributed a total of $1.36 billion to the construction of Cobre Panama and the mine accounted for 18% of the company's revenue in 2021. Copper miner First Quantum owns a 90% interest in the mine through its unit Minera Panama Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -8.64% to settle at 3205 while prices are down -2.8 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 746.9 and below same could see a test of 742.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 754.8, a move above could see prices testing 758.3.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 742.5-758.3.
* Copper fell as fears of banking instability dented expectations of higher demand
* Industrial production in China missed projections for the first two months of the year, undermining the impact of the reopening on economic activity.
* Inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped for the second week to their lowest since January.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.8% at 255.4 as China’s refined zinc output in March is estimated to exceed 560,000 mt as high profits have propelled smelters to ramp up production, which may lead to a supply surplus. The output loss caused by power rationing in Yunnan will be 8,000-9,000 mt though. In April, smelters of Huludao Zinc Industry and Gansu Baohui will be under maintenance, and the affected output will be limited to 5,000 mt per month. In terms of demand, enterprises in north China have resumed normal production with the end of environmental protection-induced production restrictions. China's refined zinc output stood at 501,400 mt in February, down 9,800 mt or 1.91% MoM and up 43,000 mt or 9.39% YoY, which was basically in line with expectations. Fewer working days in February led to an output cut of about 30,700 mt. In February, the domestic zinc concentrate TCs stood at 5,500 yuan/mt in metal content and the average TCs were 7,100 yuan/mt in metal content. The prices of zinc remained above 23,000 yuan/mt, hence the profits of zinc processing was 1,000-2,000 yuan/mt in metal content. Coupled with the soaring prices of domestic minor metals in February, the operating rates of domestic zinc smelters reached full capacity in light of high profits. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.53% to settle at 3097 while prices are down -2.05 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 253.1 and below same could see a test of 250.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 256.9, a move above could see prices testing 258.4.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 250.8-258.4.
* Zinc fell as active production among zinc smelters puts pressure on supply
* China's refined zinc output stood at 501,400 mt in February, down 9,800 mt or 1.91% MoM and up 43,000 mt or 9.39% YoY
* Enterprises in north China have resumed normal production with the end of environmental protection-induced production restrictions.


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.07% at 203.6 as China's aluminium production rose 7.5% to 6.74 million tonnes in January-February from a year earlier, the highest output for the two months since at least 2015, data showed. The primary aluminium output in China, the world's largest aluminium producer, compared with 6.33 million tonnes in the first two months of 2022, data from National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed. New production capacity came on line in January and February in northwest Gansu province, and smelters in the southwestern region including Guizhou, Guangxi and Sichuan ramped up their production. China's industrial production advanced 2.4% yoy in January-February 2023 combined, less than market estimates of a 2.6% rise but accelerating from a 1.3% growth in the prior period. China's retail trade expanded 3.5% from the prior year in January-February 2023 combined, shifting from a 1.8% fall in December and marking the strongest growth since August 2022. China's surveyed urban unemployment rate edged up to 5.6% in February from 5.5% in the previous month, pointing to the highest level since last November. For 2023, the government has targeted the jobless rate to stay around 5.5%, with the creation of around 12 million new urban jobs. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 3.17% to settle at 3644 while prices are down -0.15 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 202.8 and below same could see a test of 201.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 204.8, a move above could see prices testing 205.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 201.8-205.8.
* Aluminum dropped as China's aluminium production rose 7.5% to 6.74 million tonnes
* China's industrial production advanced 2.4% yoy in January-February 2023 combined
* China's retail trade expanded 3.5% from the prior year in January-February 2023 combined

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled flat at 1004.5 on improving export demand especially from China. Mentha exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has dropped by 17.60 percent at 1,783.56 tonnes as compared to 2,164.56 tonnes exported during Apr-Dec 2021. In the month of December 2022 around 298.38 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 236.22 tonnes in November 2022 showing a rise of 26.29%. In the month of December 2022 around 298.32 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 351.18 tonnes in December 2021 showing a drop of 15.05%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -4 Rupees to end at 1176.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -12.77% to settle at 601 while prices are remain unchanged 0 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 998.9 and below same could see a test of 993.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1008.9, a move above could see prices testing 1013.2.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 993.2-1013.2.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -4 Rupees to end at 1176.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil settled flat on improving export demand especially from China.
* Mentha exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has dropped by 17.60 percent at 1,783.56 tonnes
* In the month of December 2022 around 298.38 tonnes Mentha was exported a rise of 26.29% compared to previous month.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.62% at 6734 as turmeric harvesting has started in the key growing regions and farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks, in the fear of further decline in prices. In AP (Nizamabad) Turmeric market around 5,000-7,000 bags are arriving on an average daily basis. In the Erode spot market 400-600 bags are reported on a daily basis, In the Sangli district it is around 3500-7000 bags. Coupled with weak demand in the export and domestic market prices are trading at lower levels (in the current season). Turmeric exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has rose by 6.81 percent at 1,24,008.08 tonnes as compared to 1,16,100.75 tonnes exported during Apr- Dec 2021. In the month of December 2022 around 12,039.57 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 12,398.63 tonnes in November 2022 showing a drop of 2.90%. In the month of December 2022 around 12,039.57 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 14,218.72 tonnes in December 2021 showing a rise of 15.83%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6786.55 Rupees dropped -71.9 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.56% to settle at 12565 while prices are down -42 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6676 and below same could see a test of 6620 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6782, a move above could see prices testing 6832.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6620-6832.
* Turmeric prices dropped as turmeric harvesting has started in key growing regions
* Farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks, in the fear of further decline in prices
* The crop is good this season despite some projection of a lower crop.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6786.55 Rupees dropped -71.9 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.12% at 32140 as harvesting have started in the Cumin growing regions and it is in process which may get complete by the end of this month. As a result, new crop arrivals likely to enter in bulk quantities from last week of Feb or first week of March in the spot market. Some damage has been reported in Gujarat, Banaskantha region due to very low temperature and frost impact. However, overall crop condition is quite good in Gujarat area as compared to Rajasthan key growing regions. Early sown crop has harvested and its arrivals in the Unjha benchmark are reported at 150-250 bags (15%-20% moisture content) on an average daily basis. Jeera exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has dropped by 15.91 percent at 146,065.90 tonnes as compared to 173,703.10 tonnes exported during Apr- Dec 2021. In the month of December 2022 around 12,798.15 tonnes jeera was exported as against 11,235.11 tonnes in November 2022 showing a rise of 13.91%. In the month of December 2022 around 12,798.15 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 12,385.20 tonnes in December 2021 showing a rise of 3.33%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 17.25 Rupees to end at 31411.25 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.82% to settle at 5547 while prices are down -40 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 31725 and below same could see a test of 31305 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 32450, a move above could see prices testing 32755.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 31305-32755.
* Jeera prices dropped as harvesting have started in the Cumin growing regions
* Global production will be higher at 4.35 lt against 4.08 lt.
* But net supplies from India are projected 7 per cent lower.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 17.25 Rupees to end at 31411.25 Rupees per 100 kg.

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