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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.63% at 51972 as Treasury yields retreated, although gains were limited after stronger U.S. economic data bolstered expectations the Federal Reserve will retain its hawkish narrative. The ADP National Employment report showed private employers increased hiring last month, while separately the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) non-manufacturing PMI reading came in slightly above expectations, suggesting underlying strength in the economy despite rising interest rates. The U.S. Federal Reserve's fight against inflation is likely "still in early days," Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic said, becoming the latest U.S. central banker to caution against the likelihood rates would be reduced in response to any weakening of the economy. Despite "glimmers of hope" in recent data, Bostic said "the overarching message I’m drawing...is that we are still decidedly in the inflationary woods, not out of them," with the Fed's target funds rate needing to rise to around 4.5% by the end of the year. There is "considerable speculation already that the Fed could begin lowering rates in 2023 if economic activity slows and the rate of inflation starts to fall," Bostic said. "I would say: not so fast." San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly underscored the U.S. central bank's commitment to curbing inflation with more interest rate hikes, even as she said the Fed will not simply barrel ahead if the economy starts to crack. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 2.66% to settle at 19120 while prices are up 326 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 51811 and below same could see a test of 51649 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 52114, a move above could see prices testing 52255.
 

Trading Ideas:
*Gold trading range for the day is 51649-52255.
* Gold prices edged higher as Treasury yields retreated, although gains were limited
* Fed's Bostic says inflation fight "still in early days"
* Fed's Daly: inflation 'problematic,' interest rates to rise


Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.95% at 61346 as the stockpile of silver, held in the LBMA vaults in London, has been falling consistently in the last nine months, to reach a record low level of 28,506 tonnes valued at $16.4billion, which equates to approximately 950,208 silver bars. This is the lowest amount of silver held in the vaults since reporting started in July 2016, according to the LBMA. San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly underscored the U.S. central bank's commitment to curbing inflation with more rate hikes, even as she said the Fed will not simply barrel ahead if the economy starts to crack. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week, but the labor market remains tight even as demand for labor is cooling amid higher interest rates. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 29,000 to a seasonally adjusted 219,000 for the week ended Oct. 1, the Labor Department said. The labor market has been largely resilient, though some cracks are emerging as the Federal Reserve ramps up its monetary policy tightening campaign. Investors doubt the ECB will be able to combat inflation while protecting an economy at increasing risk of recession. Policymakers pledged to keep raising rates even if economic growth gets compromised, the latest ECB meeting minutes showed. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.93% to settle at 11180 while prices are up 579 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 60851 and below same could see a test of 60356 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 61758, a move above could see prices testing 62170.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 60356-62170.
* Silver rose as silver stockpile in the LBMA vaults has been falling consistently to reach a record low level of 28,506 tonnes
* U.S. weekly jobless claims increase more than expected
* Fed’s Daly underscored the U.S. central bank's commitment to curbing inflation with more rate hikes


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 1.41% at 7266 after OPEC+ agreed to tighten global crude supply with a deal to cut production targets by 2 million barrel per day (bpd), the largest reduction since 2020. OPEC+ agreed steep oil production cuts, curbing supply in an already tight market, causing one of its biggest clashes with the West as the U.S. administration called the surprise decision shortsighted. OPEC's de-facto leader Saudi Arabia said the cut of 2 million barrels per day (bpd) of output - equal to 2% of global supply - was necessary to respond to rising interest rates in the West and a weaker global economy. U.S. crude oil, gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Crude inventories fell by 1.4 million barrels in the week ended Sept. 30 to 429.2 million barrels. Analysts in a Reuters poll had expected a 2.1 million-barrel rise. U.S. shipments of crude oil via rail in July fell by 102,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the previous month to 219,000 bpd, according to data released Friday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Shipments within the United States in July fell by 88,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the previous month to 110,000 bpd, while shipments from Canada to the United states fell by 15,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the previous month to 109,000 bpd. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 35.24% to settle at 10699 while prices are up 101 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7176 and below same could see a test of 7085 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7322, a move above could see prices testing 7377.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 7085-7377.
* Crude oil prices rose after OPEC+ agreed to tighten global crude supply with a deal to cut production targets by 2 mbpd.
* OPEC+ agrees deep oil production cuts, Biden calls it shortsighted
* U.S. crude and fuel stockpiles down last week - EIA


Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 2.03% at 577.8 on forecasts for higher demand next week than previously expected. The latest EIA report showed a bigger-than-expected storage build last week, with US utilities adding 129 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage, above market expectations of a 113 bcf build due to mild weather and an increase in wind power. Average US gas demand, including exports, is expected to increase to 91.5 bcfd next week, from 90.2 bcfd this week, above Refinitiv's previous outlook, amid cooler weather. Keeping a lid on prices were record levels of domestic output and a recent cut in gas demand from hurricane-induced power outages. U.S. natural gas storage is expected to end the April-October injection season at 3.431 trillion cubic feet (tcf) on Oct. 31, the lowest since 2018. That compares with 3.644 tcf at the end of the summer injection season in 2021 and a five-year (2017-2021) average of 3.678 tcf. There was 3.236 tcf of gas in storage at the end of October 2018, a 13-year low. Looking ahead to the end of the November-March withdrawal season, analysts project storage will fall to 1.396 tcf by March 31, 2023, the lowest since 2019. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -13.68% to settle at 5238 while prices are up 11.5 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 565.5 and below same could see a test of 553.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 590.9, a move above could see prices testing 604.1.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 553.3-604.1.
* Natural gas rose on forecasts for higher demand next week than previously expected.
* Keeping a lid on prices were record levels of domestic output and a recent cut in gas demand from hurricane-induced power outages.
* The latest EIA report showed a bigger-than-expected storage build last week, with US utilities adding 129 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage



Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.91% at 656.25 as the dollar index moved toward the 112 mark, as investors adjusted their portfolios for an aggressive tightening of monetary policy. The London Metal Exchange imposed an immediate ban on new deliveries of the metal from Russian firm Ural Mining & Metallurgical Co. LME said metals from the Russian firm can only be delivered to its warehouses if the owner can prove to the exchange that it won’t constitute a breach of sanctions. Copper also benefited from recent weakness in the dollar that makes greenback-priced commodities cheaper for buyers holding other currencies. Moreover, robust physical demand for the metal from top consumer China on the back of government stimulus helped support copper prices. Still, the metal remains down nearly 30% since March as major central banks carried out an aggressive tightening campaign to combat surging inflation that sparked global recession fears and stemmed overall demand. China's demand for commodity shipments is expected to improve in the fourth quarter as investments in infrastructure projects and steel production pick up pace, while Beijing ramps up oil products exports, senior shipping executives said. The world's top commodities buyer reduced energy and metals imports in the first half this year as COVID-19 restrictions ravaged its economy although Beijing has pledged to support growth through stimulus measures. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 15.74% to settle at 5442 while prices are down -6 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 649.3 and below same could see a test of 642.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 668.9, a move above could see prices testing 681.6.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 642.4-681.6.
* Copper dropped as the dollar index moved toward the 112 mark, as investors adjusted their portfolios for an aggressive tightening of monetary policy.
* Moreover, robust physical demand for the metal from top consumer China on the back of government stimulus helped support copper prices.
* China's commodity shipping demand to improve from Q4


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.37% at 282.4 amid growing concerns about tight supplies after the London Metal Exchange signaled that it would restrict supplies from Russia. Markets were already tight as European smelters have been cutting back production amid soaring power prices. According to Europe’s metals trade association Eurometaux, half of Europe’s aluminum and zinc production capacity has already been forced offline as the continent’s energy crisis threatens to hobble heavy industries. Miner and trader Glencore will place its Nordenham zinc smelter in Germany on care and maintenance from Nov. 1, it said in a memo. "The cessation of production is a reaction to various external factors affecting the business and wider European industry," said Koen Demesmaeker, chairman of the supervisory board, in the memo. The stop will remain in place until macro economic conditions improve, Demesmaeker added. Surging power prices after Russia's invasion of Ukraine have forced shutdowns and suspension of energy-intensive aluminium and zinc smelters in Europe, and more cutbacks are likely, companies have said. Glencore bought the Nordenham smelter after it filed for insolvency in May 2020, when the COVID pandemic hit demand. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 9.32% to settle at 1725 while prices are up 1.05 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 279.3 and below same could see a test of 276.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 287.7, a move above could see prices testing 292.9.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 276.1-292.9.
* Zinc rose amid growing concerns about tight supplies after the London Metal Exchange signaled that it would restrict supplies from Russia.
* Markets were already tight as European smelters have been cutting back production amid soaring power prices.
* Half of Europe’s aluminum and zinc production capacity has already been forced offline as the continent’s energy crisis threatens to hobble heavy industries



Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.12% at 206.4 on profit booking amid recovery in dollar after seen supported by hopes of improved demand from top consumer China as it ramps up support for its COVID-19-hit economy and speculations grew that Beijing may soon ease coronavirus restrictions. Some Japanese aluminium buyers have agreed with at least two global producers to pay a premium of $99 a tonne over the benchmark price for October-December shipments, down 33% from the previous quarter. The figure is lower than the $148 a tonne paid in the July-September quarter and marks a fourth consecutive quarterly drop. It is also lower than producers' initial offers of $115-$133. China's demand for commodity shipments is expected to improve in the fourth quarter as investments in infrastructure projects and steel production pick up pace, while Beijing ramps up oil products exports, senior shipping executives said. The world's top commodities buyer reduced energy and metals imports in the first half this year as COVID-19 restrictions ravaged its economy although Beijing has pledged to support growth through stimulus measures. Russia's Rusal said on Friday that speculation the aluminium producer was planning to offload metal into London Metal Exchange (LME) registered warehouses was misleading. The suggestion "does not correspond to our physical sales, where we continue to service our global customers, including negotiating and planning 2023 offtakes," the company said. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.08% to settle at 5045 while prices are down -0.25 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 203.8 and below same could see a test of 201.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 210.2, a move above could see prices testing 214.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 201.2-214.
* Aluminium dropped on profit booking amid recovery in dollar after seen supported by hopes of improved demand from China
* Further, speculations grew that Beijing may soon ease coronavirus restrictions.
* Some Japanese aluminium buyers have agreed with at least two global producers to pay a premium of $99 a tonne


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 1.08% at 1000.8 amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. However, downside seen limited as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year we forecast production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. Mentha exports during Apr-July 2022 has dropped by 19.63 percent at 648.49 tonnes as compared to 806.87 tonnes exported during Apr-July 2021. In the month of July 2022 around 155.04 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 113.33 tonnes in June 2022 showing a rise of 36.80. In the month of July 2022 around 155.04 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 283.33 tonnes in July 2021 showing a decline of over 45.28%. In the month of June 2022 around 113.33 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 209.90 tonnes in May 2022 showing a drop of 46%. In Spot market, support seen after IMD issues Yellow Alert in key sowing area ; light-moderate rain to continue till Sept 4 impacting arrival in the mandi. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 14.4 Rupees to end at 1144.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.71% to settle at 1403 while prices are up 10.7 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 993.3 and below same could see a test of 985.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1005.9, a move above could see prices testing 1011.1.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 985.9-1011.1.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 14.4 Rupees to end at 1144.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil gained amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic.
* However, upside seen limited amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic.
* In the month of July 2022 around 155.04 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 113.33 tonnes in June 2022 showing a rise of 36.80.


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.08% at 7084 on low level buying on expectation of rise in festival demand amidst dwindling supplies in the market. Slower pace of arrivals amid active buying by local trader is likely to keep market sentiments up for turmeric. Arrivals has been dropped by 26% Y-o-Y due to lower production as about 11248 tonnes of turmeric arrived at APMC mandies across India in Sep’22 compared to 15758 tonnes of previous year for corresponding month. As per estimates, Turmeric all India sowing area for 2022 is estimated at 1.70 lakh hectares as compared to last year 1.66 lakh hectares, up by 2.44%. In Maharashtra, sowing area likely to go up as Turmeric spot prices were higher during the time of sowing compared to last year same period. Turmeric exports during Apr-July 2022 has rose by 17.72 percent at 62,245.73 tonnes as compared to 52,875.44 tonnes exported during Apr-July 2021. In the month of July 2022 around 12,810.36 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 18,532.00 tonnes in June 2022 showing a drop of 30.87%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7103.55 Rupees gained 26.55 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -8.08% to settle at 7795 while prices are up 6 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7028 and below same could see a test of 6974 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7168, a move above could see prices testing 7254.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6974-7254.
* Turmeric gained on low level buying on expectation of rise in festival demand amidst dwindling supplies in the market.
* In the ongoing season, no major quality concerns were observed in the crop arrived in the Marathwada region.
* In the month of July 2022 around 12,810.36 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 18,532.00 tonnes in June 2022 showing a drop of 30.87%.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7103.55 Rupees gained 26.55 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -1.09% at 23690 on profit booking after prices seen supported as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks in expectations of higher prices in coming months. Arrivals also observed to be less during the month. Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month supported by decrease in arrivals in Rajasthan as well as in Gujarat. Jeera exports during Apr-July 2022 has dropped by 37.28 percent at 67,057.16 tonnes as compared to 1,06 ,929.72 tonnes exported during Apr-July 2021. In the month of July 2022 around 19,866.18 tonnes jeera was exported as against 21,587.63 tonnes in June 2022 showing a drop of 7.97%. In the month of July 2022 around 19,866.18 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 24,167.64 tonnes in June 2021 showing a decrease of 17.80%. In the month of June 2022 around 21,587.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 30,989.86 tonnes in June 2021 showing a decrease of 30.34%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -68.3 Rupees to end at 24238.8 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -6.32% to settle at 5421 while prices are down -260 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 23445 and below same could see a test of 23200 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 24010, a move above could see prices testing 24330.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 23200-24330.
* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices seen supported as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks
* Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -68.3 Rupees to end at 24238.8 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 2.09% at 32720 as crops remain threatened due to adverse weather conditions and pest attacks in major growing regions. However upside seen limited as worries of an imminent recession dampened demand for the natural fiber crop. Cotton output is expected to rebound from last years’ experience of unseasonal rain affecting the crop. Production this year is seen at 341.9 lakh bales (170 kg) against 312.03 lakh bales last year. Pakistan’s cotton production has shrunk 19% to 2.19 million bales till September 15, 2022 in the current season mainly due to the devastation caused by heavy rainfall and flash floods nationwide. In Gujarat, new cotton arrival increased, and daily arrival reached 6,000 bales of 170 kg. Ginning mills have started buying seed cotton with the advent of the auspicious festival of Navratri. However, spinning mills are cautious as they expect a downward trend in cotton prices during peak arrival. In its monthly supply-demand report, the 2022/23 U.S. cotton projections include higher beginning stocks, production, exports and ending stocks this month, the USDA's report said. Additionally, the 2022/23 world cotton projections include higher production and ending stocks relative to last month, and lower consumption. In recent time, the heavy rainfalls and pest attacks are affecting the cotton crop. In the northern states of Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan cotton crop has been affected due to pink bollworm infestation. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -100 Rupees to end at 33370 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 2.13% to settle at 767 while prices are up 670 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 32250 and below same could see a test of 31770 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 33270, a move above could see prices testing 33810.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 31770-33810.
* Cotton gains as crops remain threatened due to adverse weather conditions and pest attacks in major growing regions.
* In Gujarat, new cotton arrival increased, and daily arrival reached 6,000 bales of 170 kg.
* Spinning mills are cautious as they expect a downward trend in cotton prices during peak arrival.
* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -100 Rupees to end at 33370 Rupees.

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