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Gold 

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.48% at 52585 underpinned by a sharp retreat in the dollar following the release of lower-than-expected US inflation numbers for July. This has prompted expectations that the Federal Reserve will tighten less aggressively, with markets now pricing in a higher chance of a 50-basis point rate hike in September versus earlier speculations of a 75-basis point increase. Safe-haven demand for the metal also jumped recently due to simmering geopolitical tensions between China and the US over Taiwan and a highly uncertain global economic outlook. Meanwhile, investors remained cautious as US policymakers indicated their commitment to keep raising interest rates until they see compelling evidence that inflation sustainably declines. High domestic prices restrained physical gold demand in India, while uncertainty surrounding Taiwan-related developments prompted bullion importers in China to hold off on big purchases. Retail demand has been weak for the past few weeks as buyers were waiting for a correction. Dealers offered discounts of up to $14 an ounce over official domestic prices unchanged from last week. Chinese premiums narrowed to $5-$9 an ounce over international spot prices, from $4-$11 last week. Hong Kong dealers sold gold between on par with the benchmark to $2 premiums. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.75% to settled at 16418 while prices up 249 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 52362 and below same could see a test of 52139 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 52709, a move above could see prices testing 52833.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 52139-52833.
* Gold prices gains underpinned by a sharp retreat in the dollar following the release of lower-than-expected US     inflation numbers for July.
*  Support also seen due to simmering geopolitical tensions between China and the US over Taiwan and a highly   uncertain global economic outlook.
* Federal Reserve will tighten less aggressively, with markets now pricing in a higher chance of a 50-basis point rate     hike in September

Silver 

Silver yesterday settled up by 1.54% at 59276 as an overall weakness in the dollar offset pressure from an uptick in bond yields and worries over further rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Market participants have toned down expectations of an aggressive rate hike by the Fed after cooler-than-expected inflation data. However, recent comments by some Fed officials continue to highlight a hawkish tilt. U.S. import prices posted their first decline in seven months in July, the Labor Department said on, lower costs for both fuel and nonfuel products. Import prices fell by a more-than-expected 1.4% last month after rising 0.3% in June, the data showed. It was the largest monthly drop since April 2020. In the 12 months through July, import prices increased 8.8% after rising 10.7% in June. San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly said that while a half-percentage-point interest rate hike in September "makes sense," she is open to the possibility of a bigger hike to fight too-high inflation. Daly's hawkish tone came a day after a Labor Department report showed consumer prices did not rise in July from the month before and after a report showed producer prices unexpectedly fell in July. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -15.77% to settled at 13066 while prices up 899 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 58582 and below same could see a test of 57889 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 59694, a move above could see prices testing 60113.

Trading Ideas:

*  Silver trading range for the day is 57889-60113.
* Silver rose as an overall weakness in the dollar offset worries over further rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve.
* Fed's Daly is open to 75 bps hike in Sept, sees no 'hump' in rate path
* U.S. 10-year bond yields hover near three-week peak

Crude oil 

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -2.22% at 7359 pressured by uncertainty regarding the extent that the global economic slowdown may have on energy demand. The market was absorbing contrasting demand views from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA). OPEC cut its forecast for growth in world oil demand in 2022 by 260,000 barrels per day (bpd). It now expects demand to rise by 3.1 million bpd this year. The IEA, meanwhile, raised its demand growth forecast to 2.1 million bpd, citing gas-to-oil switching in power generation. The IEA also raised its outlook for Russian oil supply by 500,000 bpd for the second half of 2022 but said OPEC would struggle to boost production. The IEA raised its outlook for 2022 demand by 380,000 barrels per day (bpd), saying that soaring oil use for power generation in Europe and the Middle East will boost crude consumption for the rest of the year. U.S. oil production rose last week to the highest level since April 2020, Energy Information Administration data showed. Output rose to 12.2 million barrels per day, EIA said. Meanwhile, East Coast refinery utilization rose to 100.4%, the highest on record, the data showed. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -19.22% to settled at 4471 while prices down -167 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7242 and below same could see a test of 7126 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7513, a move above could see prices testing 7668.
 

Trading Ideas:

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 7126-7668.
* Crude oil fell pressured by uncertainty regarding the extent that the global economic slowdown may have on energy   demand.
* OPEC cut its forecast for growth in world oil demand in 2022 by 260,000 barrels per day (bpd).
* The IEA raised its outlook for 2022 demand by 380,000 barrels per day (bpd).
 

Nat.Gas 
Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -0.07% at 698 on forecasts for cooler weather and lower demand next week than previously expected. That price decline came even though output was on track to fall for a fourth day in a row after hitting a record high, and despite forecasts for hotter weather in late August. Also weighing on prices was the ongoing outage at the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas, which has left more gas in the United States for utilities to inject into stockpiles for next winter. Freeport LNG, the second-biggest U.S. LNG export plant, was consuming about 2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas before it shut on June 8. Freeport expects the plant to return to at least partial service in early October. Freeport said it had been pulling in small amounts of pipeline gas since mid July to fuel a power plant that is generating electricity for sale to the Texas grid. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states had risen to 97.6 bcfd so far in August from a record 96.7 bcfd in July. On a daily basis, however, output has declined every day since hitting a record 98.3 bcfd on Monday, sliding to a preliminary 95.6 bcfd on Friday. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.85% to settled at 6195 while prices down -0.5 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 681.2 and below same could see a test of 664.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 712.1, a move above could see prices testing 726.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 664.3-726.1.
* Natural gas fell on forecasts for cooler weather and lower demand next week than previously expected.
* Also weighing on prices was the ongoing outage at the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas
* Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states had risen to 97.6 bcfd so far in August from a record 96.7 bcfd in  July.

Copper 

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.74% at 676.05 as pressure seen after Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 20.3 percent from last Friday. A total of 231,000 tonnes of copper is stored in warehouses monitored by the LME, the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the COMEX exchange in New York, down from about 375,000 tonnes a year ago. Copper import premiums in China, the top consumer, are at an eight-month high, suggesting rising demand for overseas metal. However, Copper prices have yet to break above their downtrend from March and most speculators think they will fall further. However, the market sentiment eased as both US CPI and PPI in July were lower than expected. But investors believe that despite fresh evidence of cooling inflation, the Federal Reserve still needs to aggressively raise interest rates to fully tame rising consumer prices. China produced 840,000 mt of copper cathode in July, down 2.5% on the month and up 1.1% on the year, according to statistics. Overall, domestic smelters were still under maintenance in July. The output of Jinchuan, Nanguo and Chifeng Jintong Copper was significantly affected by the maintenance. The domestic copper cathode output in August will stand at 892,100 mt, up 6.2% on the month and 8.9% on the year. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.12% to settled at 5186 while prices down -5.05 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 671.1 and below same could see a test of 666 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 682.8, a move above could see prices testing 689.4.

Trading Ideas:???????

* Copper trading range for the day is 666-689.4.
* Copper prices dropped as pressure seen after Copper inventories in SHFE warehouses rose 20.3 percent from last     Friday.
 * Copper import premiums in China, are at an eight-month high, suggesting rising demand for overseas metal.
 * China produced 840,000 mt of copper cathode in July, down 2.5% on the month and up 1.1% on the year

Zinc 

Zinc yesterday settled down by -1.47% at 322.5 on profit booking as zinc ingot social inventory across the seven major markets in China totalled 139,200 mt, up 2,600 mt from Monday August 8 and 4,800 mt from last Friday August 5. Transactions in the spot market were sluggish as downstream players received fewer new orders from terminal companies. Smelters have been curbing production as high energy prices exuberated by the war in Ukraine are making it unprofitable. Glencore, a giant in the commodities and mining scenes, has warned of the continuing margin squeeze on its European smelters. Refined zinc production at Glencore’s European operations fell by 47,500 tonnes year-on-year to 350,900 tonnes in the first six months of 2022. China's refined zinc output stood at 475,900 mt in July, down 12,600 mt or 2.57% on the month and 39,300 mt or 7.63% on the year. From January to July 2022, the combined refined zinc output is estimated to be 3.447 million mt, a decrease of 2.44% year on year. China's refined zinc output is expected to increase by 35,100 mt to 511,000 mt in August, an increase of 2,100 mt or 0.42% on the year. From January to August 2022, the combined refined zinc output is estimated to be 3.958 million mt, a decrease of 2.08% year on year.
Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -13.66% to settled at 1498 while prices down -4.8 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 317.8 and below same could see a test of 313 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 327.8, a move above could see prices testing 333."

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 313-333.
* Zinc prices dropped on profit booking as zinc ingot social inventory totalled 139,200 mt, up 2,600 mt from  Monday August 8
* Transactions in the spot market were sluggish as downstream players received fewer new orders from terminal companies.
* Smelters have been curbing production as high energy prices exuberated by the war in Ukraine are     making it unprofitable.

Aluminium 

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -2.64% at 212.4 amid sluggish demand and aluminium ingot inventory rose slightly since entering August. The aluminium ingot social inventories across China’s eight major markets totalled 693,000 mt as of August 11, up 15,000 mt from last Thursday, but 46,000 mt lower than in the same period last year. The figure was 23,000 mt higher than at the end of July. The inventory of aluminium ingots has been accumulating for three consecutive weeks, with an increase of 23,000 mt so far this month. The domestic aluminium billet social inventory increased by 5,100 mt when compared with last Thursday. This marked five consecutive weeks of growth. Inventory in Foshan rose from 49,100 mt in mid-July to current 81,600 mt, and increased by 2,200 mt or 2.77% on a weekly basis. China produced 3.5 million mt of aluminium in July (31 calendar days), up 6.74% on the year. The daily output stood at 112,900 mt, up 862 on the month and 7,113 mt on the year. The output totalled 23.059 million mt from January to July 2022, an increase of 1.4% on the year. On the macro front, U.S. Department of Labor data showed that the PPI fell 0.5% from the previous month and rose 9.8% from a year earlier. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 19.87% to settled at 4120 while prices down -5.75 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 209.4 and below same could see a test of 206.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 217.5, a move above could see prices testing 222.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 206.4-222.6.
* Aluminium prices pressured amid sluggish demand and aluminium ingot inventory rose slightly since     entering August.
*  The aluminium ingot social inventories across China totalled 693,000 mt as of August 11, up 15,000 mt     from last Thursday.
* Aluminium smelter in China's Sichuan cut its output following an accident, which is expected to affect   200,000 mt of capacity.

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.11% at 986.8 as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. However, downside seen limited amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The harvest is expected to be almost the same as last year's in Barabanki area but harvesting this year is expected to be delayed. Crop growth is poor this year compared with last year despite use of fertiliser. The plant is about 25% less than the total crop, water is being felt after every three days. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year we forecast production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. Germany's BASF said it would have to stop production if natural gas supplies fell to less than half its needs, as the world's largest chemicals group warned of the damage to its operations from Europe's power crunch. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -19.5 Rupees to end at 1117.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.95% to settled at 1565 while prices down -1.1 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 981.8 and below same could see a test of 976.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 989.8, a move above could see prices testing 992.9.

Trading Ideas

*  Mentha oil trading range for the day is 976.9-992.9.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -19.5 Rupees to end at 1117.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil dropped as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.
*  In the month of May 2022 around 209.90 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 170.22 in April 2022   showing a rise of 23.31%.
* In the month of May 2022 around 209.90 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 179.76 in May 2021 showing a rise of 16.77%.

Turmeric 

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 2.32% at 7324 amid expectations of decline in sown area in the ongoing kharif sowing season. Mandi arrivals of Turmeric, at all-India level, 0.22 lakh tonnes, marking a decline of 38% on m-o-m basis and 48% on y-o-y basis. The major Turmeric producing states such as Telangana, Maharashtra witnessed fall in mandi arrivals during the month of July. Turmeric sowing for marketing year 2023 has started across major production states. In the beginning of June, with the delay in monsoon progress over key Turmeric growing states like Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu, Turmeric sowings remained sluggish. Stockists have remained inactive due to availability of stock in Marathwada region. As per market feedback, in the ongoing season, no major quality concerns were observed in the crop arrived in the Marathwada region. Turmeric exports during Apr-May 2022 has rose by 14.94 percent at 30,899.73 as compared to 26,881.41 exported during Apr-May 2021. In the month of May 2022 around 17,137.15 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 13762.59 in April 2022 showing a rise of 24.51%. In the month of May 2022 around 17,137.15 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 13,598.88 in May 2021 showing an increase of 26.02%. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7495.95 Rupees dropped -225.5 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.01% to settled at 14770 while prices up 166 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7164 and below same could see a test of 7006 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7416, a move above could see prices testing 7510.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7006-7510.
* Turmeric prices seen supported amid expectations of decline in sown area in the ongoing kharif sowing   season.
* In the ongoing season, no major quality concerns were observed in the crop arrived in the Marathwada region.
* Turmeric exports during Apr-May 2022 has rose by 14.94 percent at 30,899.73 as compared to 26,881.41 exported during Apr-May 2021.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7495.95 Rupees dropped -225.5 Rupees.

Jeera 

Jeera yesterday settled up by 3.66% at 24910 as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks in expectations of higher prices in coming months. Arrivals also observed to be less during the month. Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month supported by decrease in arrivals in Rajasthan as well as in Gujarat. However, mandi arrivals were also lower by 39% compared to the corresponding period of the previous year. As per market feedback, export demand has decreased as compared to corresponding period of the previous year. The reason behind decline in export demand was lower exports to China, as the country had imposed lockdown amid resurgence of Covid. In last 3 years Jeera export was observed to be 7.30 Lakh Tonnes out of which 2.01 Lakh Tonnes was exported to China i.e 28% of total jeera exported. As per preliminary estimates, all-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 (April-March) by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings. As per Fourth advance estimates released by Govt of Gujarat Jeera production is likely to fall by 45% to 2.22 lakh tonnes over the previous year. Area covered under cumin seed in Gujarat and Rajasthan state (considered together) has decreased by 28% over last year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 317.8 Rupees to end at 24032.85 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.29% to settled at 10788 while prices up 880 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 24300 and below same could see a test of 23685 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 25260, a move above could see prices testing 25605.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 23685-25605.
* Jeera prices seen supported as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding   stocks
* Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh   tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 317.8 Rupees to end at 24032.85 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton 
Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.96% at 48590 as India’s Cotton sowing gained by nearly 5.34% to 117.65 lakh hectares in 2022 against an area sown of 111.69 lakh hectares in 2021. In Gujarat Cotton sowing grows by nearly 13% with 2,528,354.00 hectares against sown area of 2021 which was 2,240,765.00 hectares as of now. In Rajasthan, Cotton sowing witnessed a gain of 7.99% with 647.1 thousand hectares as against 599.22 thousand hectares on the same day last year. However, crop has been damaged as excessive rains continue to hit parts of the Maharashtra State. According to government sources, if rains continue to hit the State for the next few days more crop is likely to get damaged. The heavy rainfall has caused heavy losses to the cotton crop in Narnaund, Baas, Hansi and Barwala regions of the Hisar. The Agriculture Department report has revealed that 49,212 acres of cotton crop has suffered above 26 per cent losses, of which the crop on 18,700 acres has reported damage above 50 per cent. CAI reports at least 10% higher sowing is expected compared to previous kharif season’s 12 million hectares. Looking at the current trend, cotton sowing in Maharashtra is expected to cross 4.2 million hectares. In spot market, Cotton gained by 680 Rupees to end at 46370 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.11% to settled at 1091 while prices down -470 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 48110 and below same could see a test of 47630 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 49160, a move above could see prices testing 49730.
 

Trading Ideas:

* Cotton trading range for the day is 47630-49730.
* Cotton dropped as India’s Cotton sowing gained by nearly 5.34% to 117.65 lakh hectares in 2022
* In Gujarat Cotton sowing grows by nearly 13% with 2,528,354.00 hectares
* Speculators cut net long position by 3,020 contracts to 7,083 in week to Aug. 2, data from the CFTC   showed.
* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 680 Rupees to end at 46370 Rupees.

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