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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.04% at 51439 as investors balance signs the US economy is weakening against prospects that the Federal Reserve will keep raising rates aggressively. Markets await Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday after several officials signaled support to prioritize controlling inflation over growth and continue hiking rates. Optimism that inflation peaked in July has faded after recent rises in key commodities including natural gas and crude on the back of tight supplies. Meanwhile, preliminary PMI figures showed that the US private sector economy contracted for a second month in August and at the sharpest rate since May 2020. New orders for U.S.-made capital goods increased in July, but the pace slowed from the prior month, suggesting that business spending on equipment could struggle to rebound after contracting in the second quarter. Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, rose 0.4% last month, the Commerce Department said. These so-called core capital goods orders surged 0.9% in June. Orders are slowing as the Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary policy campaign to fight inflation dampens demand. But manufacturing, which accounts for 11.9% of the economy, remains supported by still-low inventories of long-lasting manufactured goods like motor vehicles. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.24% to settled at 13982 while prices up 22 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 51297 and below same could see a test of 51154 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 51576, a move above could see prices testing 51712.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 51154-51712.
* Gold prices edged up as investors balance signs the US economy is weakening against prospects that the Federal Reserve will keep raising rates aggressively.
* Fed's Kashkari says inflation is very high, Fed's job is to curb it.
* Fed's Kashkari: We can only relax on rate rises if there is persuasive evidence that inflation is approaching 2%.


Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.49% at 54937 dragged down by rising interest rates worldwide and weakening demand. The dollar held steady as poor economic readings from around the world raised hopes of less aggressive rate hikes by major central banks. Progress toward green technologies, such as solar panel production suffered a setback as China and India take advantage of affordable oil and gas from Russia while Europe is returning to coal as an energy alternative. In the US, however, the Inflation Reduction Act will invest $430 billion in renewable energy. Also, a slowdown in the global economy is reducing the consumption of electronics and automobiles and sales of silver jewelry from major consumers China and India have been falling as stores close amid Covid outbreaks. On the supply front, silver output from Latin America has recovered from the Covid-19 hit as top producers Peru and Mexico lifted restrictions earlier than the rest of the world. Silver is down nearly 30% since its March peak when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine spurred a rally in precious metals. India’s Silver imports are expected to bounce back to pre-Covid levels of 6,500-7,000 tonnes this year as there is a strong demand for the metal. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.21% to settled at 14443 while prices down -270 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 54740 and below same could see a test of 54544 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 55239, a move above could see prices testing 55542.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 54544-55542.
* Silver fell dragged down by rising interest rates worldwide and weakening demand.
* New orders for U.S.-made capital goods increased in July, but the pace slowed from the prior month
* Pending home sales in the US declined 1% month-over-month in July of 2022, following an upwardly revised 8.9% fall in June


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 0.45% at 7536 as concerns about tight supplies continued to hang over the market. The EIA reported that US crude stockpiles declined by 3.282 million barrels last week, much bigger than expectations for a 933,000 barrel drop. A similar report from API showed that inventories decreased by 5.632 million barrels last week. On top of that, Saudi Arabia has recently flagged possible supply cuts from OPEC+ to counter a potential demand-sapping global recession. Kuwait has increased its oil production to 2.811 million barrels per day in line with the OPEC+ agreement, the country's oil minister Mohammed Al-Fares said. U.S. crude stocks, gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week, the Energy Information Administration said. Crude inventories fell by 3.3 million barrels in the week to Aug. 19 to 421.7 million barrels, compared with expectations for a 933,000-barrel drop. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub rose by 426,000 barrels in the last week, EIA said. Refinery crude runs fell by 168,000 barrels per day in the last week, EIA said. Refinery utilization rates rose by 0.3 percentage points in the week. U.S. gasoline stocks fell by 27,000 barrels in the week to 215.6 million barrels, the EIA said, compared with expectations for a 1.5 million-barrel drop. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.6% to settled at 4989 while prices up 34 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7431 and below same could see a test of 7327 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7627, a move above could see prices testing 7719.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 7327-7719.
* Crude oil remained supported as concerns about tight supplies continued to hang over the market.
* Kuwait's oil minister says country has increased oil production to 2.811 mln bpd in line with OPEC+
* Saudi Energy Minister said OPEC+ could cut oil production to correct imbalances.

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 0.98% at 744.4 as focus returned to forecasts for more demand for the fuel to cool homes and business amid warmer-than-normal weather. Earlier this week, futures topped the $10/MMBtu mark for the first time in over 14 years, supported by expectations of increased demand for US LNG exports amid growing concerns of European shortages. Russia's Gazprom said it would halt flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Europe for three days of maintenance at the end of August. The main channel between Russia and Europe was already running at 20% capacity, putting pressure on the region as it seeks to refuel ahead of winter to avoid a natural gas shortage. The average amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants held at 10.9 bcfd so far in August, the same as July. That compares with a monthly record of 12.9 bcfd in March. The seven big U.S. export plants can turn about 13.8 bcfd of gas into LNG. Norway plans to maintain its current high gas production level until the end of the decade as Europe plans to ditch Russian imports over Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, its energy minister said. "I expect that we can maintain the production levels we are at now until 2030," Terje Aasland told. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.66% to settled at 2389 while prices up 7.2 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 729.2 and below same could see a test of 714.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 756.7, a move above could see prices testing 769.1.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 714.1-769.1.
* Natural gas rose as focus returned to forecasts for more demand for the fuel to cool homes and business amid warmer-than-normal weather.
* Norway eyes high gas output until 2030, says energy minister
* Freeport LNG Development: Initial production is expected to begin in early to mid-November, with a sustained level of at least 2 BCF per day by November



Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.8% at 672.6 as dismal data from the world's major economies heightened fears of a global recession, dampening the outlook for metals demand. U.S. private-sector business activity contracted for a second straight month in August to its weakest level in 27 months. August also saw business activity in the euro zone contract for a second consecutive month, as consumers cut spending due to the cost-of-living crisis, while supply constraints also hurt manufacturers, a survey showed. China, the world's top metal producer and consumer, grapples with an economy hobbled by COVID-19 and property crisis. It cut its benchmark lending rate and has moved to support its property market. The global refined copper market showed a 66,000 tonne deficit in June, compared with a 30,000 tonne deficit in May, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. For the first 6 months of the year, the market was in a 72,000 tonne deficit compared with a 130,000 tonne deficit in the same period a year earlier, the ICSG said. World refined copper output in June was 2.17 million tonne, while consumption was 2.23 million tonne. Bonded stocks of copper in China showed a 66,000 tonne deficit in June compared with a 34,000 tonne deficit in May. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 25.56% to settled at 5747 while prices down -5.4 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 669.4 and below same could see a test of 666.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 676.5, a move above could see prices testing 680.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 666.3-680.5.
* Copper dropped as dismal data from the world's major economies heightened fears of a global recession, dampening the outlook for metals demand.
* Copper market in 66,000 tonne deficit in Jun 2022 – ICSG
* U.S. private-sector business activity contracted for a second straight month in August to its weakest level in 27 months.


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.54% at 314.95 as the global zinc market saw a deficit of 1,400 tonnes in June from a revised deficit of 1,900 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a deficit of 3,900 tonnes in May. During the first six months of 2022, ILZSG data showed a surplus of 27,000 tonnes versus a deficit of 4,000 tonnes in the same period of 2021. The U.S. dollar steadied as investors waited for more clues on Friday's Jackson Hole meeting whether weak U.S. data may slow the pace of Federal Reserve's rate hikes. Swedish miner Boliden has declared force majeure on zinc deliveries to Europe due to a strike among Norwegian electrochemical industry workers, although some production is still running, a company spokesperson said on Tuesday. The strike, which started, is targeting several electrochemical plants, including Boliden's zinc smelter in Odda and Glencore's nickel refinery in Kristiansand as well as aluminium output at Norsk Hydro and Alcoa. The spot premiums were still high without any highlights in terms of transactions. Tianjin, which accommodates a number of galvanising plants, failed to see any successful transactions, and the local premiums are likely to fall with inflows of sources from the south. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 40.17% to settled at 1326 while prices up 1.7 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 312.5 and below same could see a test of 310 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 316.8, a move above could see prices testing 318.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 310-318.6.
* Zinc prices gained as the global zinc market saw a deficit of 1,400 tonnes in June
* Refined zinc output in August is expected to rise to 530,000-540,000 mt, weakening the support on the supply side.
* Boliden declares force majeure on zinc amid Norway strike



Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.35% at 211.95 slowing economic growth curtails demand but downside seen limited as smelter closures reduced supply. A smelter in Slovakia became the latest in Europe to announce a closure due to sky-high energy costs last week, while Bloomberg News reported that a German smelter is also considering cutbacks. Authorities in China's Sichuan province have, meanwhile, ordered the temporary shutdown of smelters that can produce around 1 million tonnes a year due to a drought and heat-wave. Around 1 million tonnes of aluminium capacity has been taken offline in Europe, Citi said, while another 500,000 tonnes in Europe and 200,000-300,000 in the United States are under threat. Around 65-70 million tonnes of aluminium are produced each year. But Citi said there was surplus supply in Asia, where Chinese smelters have ramped up production, and expectations for consumption of the metal are weakening. Supply on the LME does look tight. LME inventories have fallen below 300,000 tonnes from almost 2 million tonnes in March 2021 and traders are paying a premium for quickly deliverable cash aluminium. Global primary aluminium output in July rose 2.06% year on year to 5.848 million tonnes, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. Estimated Chinese production was 3.468 million tonnes in July, the IAI said. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 14.47% to settled at 3488 while prices down -0.75 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 210.9 and below same could see a test of 209.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 213.4, a move above could see prices testing 214.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 209.8-214.8.
* Aluminium dropped as slowing economic growth curtails demand but downside seen limited as smelter closures reduced supply.
* A smelter in Slovakia became the latest in Europe to announce a closure due to sky-high energy costs last week
* Authorities in China's Sichuan province have, ordered the temporary shutdown of smelters that can produce around 1 million tonnes a year.


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.26% at 975.7 amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. However, upside seen limited as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year we forecast production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. Mentha exports during Apr-June 2022 has dropped by 5.75 percent at 493.45 tonnes as compared to 523.54 tonnes exported during Apr-June 2021. In the month of June 2022 around 113.33 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 209.90 tonnes in May 2022 showing a drop of 46%.In the month of June 2022 around 113.33 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 169.93 tonnes in June 2021 showing a decline of over 33%.In the month of May 2022 around 209.90 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 179.76 tonnes in May 2021 showing a rise of 16.77%. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 3.3 Rupees to end at 1134.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 11.3% to settled at 1645 while prices up 2.5 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 972.4 and below same could see a test of 969.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 979.6, a move above could see prices testing 983.6.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 969.2-983.6.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 3.3 Rupees to end at 1134.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices gains amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic.
* Mentha exports during Apr-June 2022 has dropped by 5.75 percent at 493.45 tonnes as compared to 523.54 tonnes exported during Apr-June 2021.
* In the month of June 2022 around 113.33 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 209.90 tonnes in May 2022 showing a drop of 46%.


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.45% at 7218 amid expectations of decline in sown area in the ongoing kharif sowing season. As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, sowing activity completed around 7,958 hectares as compared to last year same period 7,764 hectares. Sufficient stocks and good sowing reports kept turmeric prices under pressure. Turmeric exports during Apr-June 2022 has rose by 23.44 percent at 49,435.38 tonnes as compared to 40,049.06 tonnes exported during Apr-June 2021. In the month of June 2022 around 18,532.00 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 17,137.15 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 8.13%. In the month of June 2022 around 18,532.00 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 13,206.00 tonnes in June 2021 showing an increase of 40.33%. In the month of May 2022 around 17,138.35 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 13,576.68 tonnes in May 2021 showing an increase of 26.23%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7423.3 Rupees gained 0.95 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.07% to settled at 14185 while prices up 32 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7144 and below same could see a test of 7068 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7272, a move above could see prices testing 7324.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7068-7324.
* Turmeric prices seen supported amid expectations of decline in sown area in the ongoing kharif sowing season.
* In the ongoing season, no major quality concerns were observed in the crop arrived in the Marathwada region.
* In the month of June 2022 around 18,532.00 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 17,137.15 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 8.13%.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7423.3 Rupees gained 0.95 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 3.41% at 25745 as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks in expectations of higher prices in coming months. Arrivals also observed to be less during the month. Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month supported by decrease in arrivals in Rajasthan as well as in Gujarat. Jeera exports during Apr-June 2022 has dropped by 42.98 percent at 47,190.98 tonnes as compared to 82,762.08 tonnes exported during Apr-June 2021. In the month of June 2022 around 21,587.63 tonnes jeera was exported as against 14,894.62 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 44.94%. In the month of June 2022 around 21,587.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 30,989.86 tonnes in June 2021 showing a decrease of 30.34%. In the month of May 2022 around 14,894.62 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 20,693.76 tonnes in May 2021 showing a decrease of 28.03%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 340.75 Rupees to end at 24639.35 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.06% to settled at 7857 while prices up 850 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 25180 and below same could see a test of 24610 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 26090, a move above could see prices testing 26430.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 24610-26430.
* Jeera prices rose as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks
* Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 340.75 Rupees to end at 24639.35 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.33% at 38990 as India’s Cotton sowing gained by nearly 5.98% to 123.09 lakh hectares in 2022 against an area sown of 116.15 lakh hectares in 2021. In Gujarat Cotton sowing grows by nearly 13% with 2,538,383.00 hectares against sown area of 2021 which was 2,250,743.00 hectares. In Rajasthan Cotton sowing witnessed a gain of 3.76% with 652.61 thousand hectares as against 628.94 thousand hectares on the same day last year. In its monthly supply-demand report, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) cut its global production forecast by 3.1 million bales, and the U.S. output outlook by 3 million bales for the 2022-23 crop year. Hot and dry weather conditions in key growing areas in the United States have threatened the condition of the natural fiber crop and raised supply concerns. The USDA's lower global output estimates also reflected a reduction of about 100,000 bales "as extreme heat in Uzbekistan reduced yield prospects there." However, the agency said it expects the lower U.S. production projections to result in a 2 million bale reduction in exports compared with July, and a 200,000 bale dip in mill use. In recent time, the heavy rainfalls and pest attacks are affecting the cotton crop. In the northern states of Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan cotton crop has been affected due to pink bollworm infestation. Whereas in Maharashtra and Telangana excess rainfall in July, over the major cotton-growing districts has affected the crop. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -380 Rupees to end at 47170 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.76% to settled at 689 while prices down -130 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 38560 and below same could see a test of 38130 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 39360, a move above could see prices testing 39730.
Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 38130-39730.
* Cotton dropped as India’s Cotton sowing gained by nearly 5.98% to 123.09 lakh hectares in 2022.
* However, cotton crops in India, remain under threat due to adverse weather conditions and pest attacks in major growing regions.
* USDA cut its global production forecast by 3.1 million bales, and the U.S. output outlook by 3 million bales for the 2022-23 crop year.
* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -380 Rupees to end at 47170 Rupees.

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