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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.51% at 51702 helped by a softer dollar as investors looked ahead to the Jackson Hole economic symposium for cues on inflation and the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate path. The economic symposium starts on Thursday and of particular interest is Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Friday. Investors are interested to know whether the Fed would send a clear message that could act as a fresh catalyst for bullion. ECB policymakers noted that the 50bps rate hike delivered in July should be regarded as frontloading the exit from negative rates and necessary to normalise monetary policy, rather than indicating a change in the rate to be expected as the end-point of the normalisation cycle, minutes from the ECB's July 2022 meeting showed. At the same time, additional increases in borrowing costs will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis and will be data-dependent, although further hikes should be appropriate in upcoming meetings. Minutes also showed there was a unanimous support for the new Transmission Protection Instrument. China's net gold imports via Hong Kong in July rose by about 20.2% from the previous month, Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department data showed. Net imports stood at 48.773 tonnes in July, compared with 40.563 tonnes in June, the data showed. Total gold imports via Hong Kong were up nearly 23.7% to 53.91 tonnes. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.19% to settled at 13815 while prices up 263 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 51518 and below same could see a test of 51333 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 51867, a move above could see prices testing 52031.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 51333-52031.
* Gold prices gained helped by a softer dollar
* Fed’s Bostic Says More Strong Data Could Tip Fed Toward 75 Basis Point Rate Increase
* Fed's Bostic: I am split between 50 basis-point and 75 basis-point rate hike


Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.82% at 55389 as the dollar weakened, as investors looked forward to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Friday at the central banking conference in Jackson Hole for further cues on the monetary policy outlook. Powell is widely expected to reiterate the central bank's hawkish stance, given the expectations that inflation in the U.S. will be persistent and it will take time to contain it. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits went down by 2 thousand to 243 thousand in the week ended August 20th from a downwardly revised 245 thousand in the previous period and well below the market estimate of 253 thousand. The US economy contracted an annualized 0.6% on quarter in Q2 2022, less than a 0.9% fall in the advance estimate, due to upward revisions to consumer spending, inventories. The German economy expanded in the second quarter, beating the initial estimates, data released by Destatis showed. Gross domestic product grew 0.1 percent sequentially, in contrast to the flat growth estimated on July 29, underpinned by household and government spending. Germany's Ifo business confidence fell in August but topped expectations. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.25% to settled at 12962 while prices up 452 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 55108 and below same could see a test of 54827 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 55705, a move above could see prices testing 56021.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 54827-56021.
* Silver prices edged higher as the dollar weakened, as investors looked forward to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech
* Fed's George: not hearing things that match what you hear during a recession.
* Fed's George: The full impact of recent rate hikes may not be felt for some time.


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.88% at 7470 with traders weighing the prospects for the return of Iranian oil to the market. Concerns about outlook for energy demand amid rising possibility of a recession in several parts of the globe weighed as well on oil prices. Comments by Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman about a disconnect between the futures and physical markets in which he flagged the possibility that OPEC+ could cut production helped to push oil prices to three-week highs. Talks between the European Union, the United States and Iran to revive the 2015 nuclear deal are continuing, with Iran saying it had received a response from the United States to the EU's "final" text to resurrect the agreement. Falling U.S. crude and product stockpiles added to the upward price momentum. Oil inventories fell by 3.3 million barrels in the week to Aug. 19 to 421.7 million barrels, steeper than expectations in a Reuters poll for a 933,000-barrel drop. The bullish impact was countered by a drawdown in gasoline inventories that was less than expected, reflecting weak demand. U.S. gasoline stocks fell by 27,000 barrels in the week to 215.6 million barrels, compared with earlier expectations for a 1.5 million-barrel drop. U.S. crude stockpiles in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell last week to the lowest since January 1985, Energy Information Administration data showed. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.54% to settled at 4563 while prices down -66 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7384 and below same could see a test of 7297 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7608, a move above could see prices testing 7745.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 7297-7745.
* Crude oil prices fell with traders weighing the prospects for the return of Iranian oil to the market.
* Falling U.S. crude and product stockpiles added to the upward price momentum.
* Oil inventories fell by 3.3 million barrels in the week to Aug. 19 to 421.7 million barrels


Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 0.13% at 743 buoyed by elevated global gas prices which offset limited pressure from a delay in the restart of the Freeport export hub. Russian state energy giant Gazprom said last week the country would halt natural gas supplies to Europe for three days at the end of the month via its main pipeline into the region. Freeport LNG announced that it would delay the restart of its Quintana export plant to November, backtracking previous statements of an October restart. The pushback of the resumption of flows from the export plant to outside the US prevents the earlier withdrawal of natural gas from storage for outbound shipments. Earlier this week, futures topped the $10/MMBtu mark for the first time in over 14 years, supported by expectations of increased demand for US LNG exports amid growing concerns of European shortages. Russia's Gazprom said it would halt flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Europe for three days of maintenance at the end of August. The main channel between Russia and Europe was already running at 20% capacity, putting pressure on the region as it seeks to refuel ahead of winter to avoid a natural gas shortage. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 13.5% to settled at 6138 while prices up 1 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 732.5 and below same could see a test of 722.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 752.2, a move above could see prices testing 761.5.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 722.1-761.5.
* Natural gas rose buoyed by elevated global gas prices which offset limited pressure from a delay in the restart of the Freeport export hub.
* Freeport LNG announced that it would delay the restart of its Quintana export plant to November, backtracking previous statements of an October restart.
* Russia's Gazprom said it would halt flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Europe for three days of maintenance at the end of August.



Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.98% at 679.2 buoyed by an uptick in equities and a slight pullback in the U.S. dollar, although dismal demand outlook amid growing recession worries kept gains in check. China will focus on creating jobs and promote fiscal, monetary and industrial policies to stabilise its labour market, Li Zhong, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, said. As the Chinese economy struggles to recover from a COVID-induced slump, the youth unemployment rate has surged to a record high of 19.9% in July, while the nationwide survey-based urban jobless rate eased but remained elevated at 5.4%. Unemployment insurance payouts hit an all-time high in June. China's employment situation has remained generally stable for a long time, but there has been persisting long-term pressure, Li told a news conference in Beijing. New orders for U.S.-manufactured capital goods increased in July, but the pace slowed from the prior month, suggesting a moderate rebound in business spending this quarter. The preliminary data for world copper supply and demand for the month of June 2022 indicates that the market ended in apparent deficit during the first half-yearly period this year. The August 2022 Copper Bulletin published by the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) states that refined copper market balance ended at a deficit of approximately 72,000 tonnes during this period. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.32% to settled at 5154 while prices up 6.6 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 674.8 and below same could see a test of 670.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 681.9, a move above could see prices testing 684.5.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 670.3-684.5.
* Copper prices edged up, buoyed by an uptick in equities and a slight pullback in the U.S. dollar
* China to promote fiscal, monetary policies to support job stabilisation
* Refined copper market balance ended at a deficit of approximately 72,000 tonnes during this period – ICSG


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 1.03% at 318.2 as European energy crisis intensified with natural gas futures prices rose to a record high, and the supply tightness of zinc ingot extended. The TCs for zinc concentrate in China were low, also alluding tight supply amid ongoing power rationing in Sichuan. As per WBMS data, the global zinc market recorded marginal surplus of 168 kt during the initial six months of the year. The global refined zinc production rose by 0.2%. The global demand edged lower by 3.5% from the level recorded for Jan-June ’22. The global zinc market saw a deficit of 1,400 tonnes in June from a revised deficit of 1,900 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a deficit of 3,900 tonnes in May. During the first six months of 2022, ILZSG data showed a surplus of 27,000 tonnes versus a deficit of 4,000 tonnes in the same period of 2021. China imported 2,000 mt of refined zinc in July, down 17.09% on the month and 96.23% on the year, according to the General Administration of Customs. The imports totaled 51,000 mt in the first seven months of 2022, down 83.11% YoY. Total exports of refined zinc stood at 1,900 mt in July, with a net import volume of 1,000 mt. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 14.18% to settled at 1514 while prices up 3.25 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 315.9 and below same could see a test of 313.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 320.2, a move above could see prices testing 322.1.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 313.5-322.1.
* Zinc rose as European energy crisis intensified with natural gas futures prices rose to a record high, and the supply tightness of zinc ingot extended.
* The TCs for zinc concentrate in China were low, also alluding tight supply amid ongoing power rationing in Sichuan.
* The global zinc market saw a deficit of 1,400 tonnes in June from a revised deficit of 1,900 tonnes a month earlier



Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.42% at 212.85 as support seen after Aluminum producer Speira GmbH is considering cutting production at its German smelter to 50% of total capacity in response to surging energy costs. Soaring electricity prices in Europe have triggered cuts in the energy-intensive production of aluminium. Europe's aluminium output capacity is around 4.5 million tonnes. Of that, about 1 million tonnes has been taken offline since 2021 and another 500,000 tonnes is under threat. Aluminium stocks at three major Japanese ports fell 1.6% to 364,000 tonnes at the end of July from 369,800 tonnes at the end of June, Marubeni Corp said. Global primary aluminium output in July rose 2.06% year on year to 5.848 million tonnes, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. Around 1 million tonnes of aluminium capacity has been taken offline in Europe, Citi said, while another 500,000 tonnes in Europe and 200,000-300,000 in the United States are under threat. Around 65-70 million tonnes of aluminium are produced each year. But Citi said there was surplus supply in Asia, where Chinese smelters have ramped up production, and expectations for consumption of the metal are weakening. Supply on the LME does look tight. LME inventories have fallen below 300,000 tonnes from almost 2 million tonnes in March 2021 and traders are paying a premium for quickly deliverable cash aluminium. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.07% to settled at 3346 while prices up 0.9 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 212.1 and below same could see a test of 211.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 213.6, a move above could see prices testing 214.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 211.2-214.2.
* Aluminum gains as support seen after Aluminum producer Speira GmbH is considering cutting production at its German smelter to 50% of total capacity.
* Europe's aluminum smelters cut output as power crunch intensifies
* Japan aluminium stocks down 1.6% m/m in July


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.41% at 971.7 as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. However, downside seen limited amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year we forecast production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. Mentha exports during Apr-June 2022 has dropped by 5.75 percent at 493.45 tonnes as compared to 523.54 tonnes exported during Apr-June 2021. In the month of June 2022 around 113.33 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 209.90 tonnes in May 2022 showing a drop of 46%.In the month of June 2022 around 113.33 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 169.93 tonnes in June 2021 showing a decline of over 33%.In the month of May 2022 around 209.90 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 179.76 tonnes in May 2021 showing a rise of 16.77%. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 21.3 Rupees to end at 1136.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.46% to settled at 1621 while prices down -4 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 964.4 and below same could see a test of 957.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 979.4, a move above could see prices testing 987.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 957.2-987.2.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 21.3 Rupees to end at 1136.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices dropped as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.
* Mentha exports during Apr-June 2022 has dropped by 5.75 percent at 493.45 tonnes as compared to 523.54 tonnes exported during Apr-June 2021.
* In the month of June 2022 around 113.33 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 209.90 tonnes in May 2022 showing a drop of 46%.


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.17% at 7230 amid expectations of decline in sown area in the ongoing kharif sowing season. As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, sowing activity completed around 7,958 hectares as compared to last year same period 7,764 hectares. Sufficient stocks and good sowing reports kept turmeric prices under pressure. Turmeric exports during Apr-June 2022 has rose by 23.44 percent at 49,435.38 tonnes as compared to 40,049.06 tonnes exported during Apr-June 2021. In the month of June 2022 around 18,532.00 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 17,137.15 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 8.13%. In the month of June 2022 around 18,532.00 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 13,206.00 tonnes in June 2021 showing an increase of 40.33%. In the month of May 2022 around 17,138.35 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 13,576.68 tonnes in May 2021 showing an increase of 26.23%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7476.15 Rupees gained 52.85 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.16% to settled at 14020 while prices up 12 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7168 and below same could see a test of 7106 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7306, a move above could see prices testing 7382.
Trading Ideas:
*Turmeric trading range for the day is 7106-7382.
* Turmeric prices seen supported amid expectations of decline in sown area in the ongoing kharif sowing season.
* In the ongoing season, no major quality concerns were observed in the crop arrived in the Marathwada region.
* In the month of June 2022 around 18,532.00 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 17,137.15 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 8.13%.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7476.15 Rupees gained 52.85 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -1.15% at 25450 on profit booking after prices seen supported as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks in expectations of higher prices in coming months. Arrivals also observed to be less during the month. Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month supported by decrease in arrivals in Rajasthan as well as in Gujarat. Jeera exports during Apr-June 2022 has dropped by 42.98 percent at 47,190.98 tonnes as compared to 82,762.08 tonnes exported during Apr-June 2021. In the month of June 2022 around 21,587.63 tonnes jeera was exported as against 14,894.62 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 44.94%. In the month of June 2022 around 21,587.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 30,989.86 tonnes in June 2021 showing a decrease of 30.34%. In the month of May 2022 around 14,894.62 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 20,693.76 tonnes in May 2021 showing a decrease of 28.03%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 338.9 Rupees to end at 24978.25 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.96% to settled at 7467 while prices down -295 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 25220 and below same could see a test of 24995 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 25750, a move above could see prices testing 26055.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 24995-26055.
* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices seen supported as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks
* Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 338.9 Rupees to end at 24978.25 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.36% at 38850 as India’s Cotton sowing gained by nearly 5.98% to 123.09 lakh hectares in 2022 against an area sown of 116.15 lakh hectares in 2021. In Gujarat Cotton sowing grows by nearly 13% with 2,538,383.00 hectares against sown area of 2021 which was 2,250,743.00 hectares. In Rajasthan Cotton sowing witnessed a gain of 3.76% with 652.61 thousand hectares as against 628.94 thousand hectares on the same day last year. In its monthly supply-demand report, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) cut its global production forecast by 3.1 million bales, and the U.S. output outlook by 3 million bales for the 2022-23 crop year. Hot and dry weather conditions in key growing areas in the United States have threatened the condition of the natural fiber crop and raised supply concerns. The USDA's lower global output estimates also reflected a reduction of about 100,000 bales "as extreme heat in Uzbekistan reduced yield prospects there." However, the agency said it expects the lower U.S. production projections to result in a 2 million bale reduction in exports compared with July, and a 200,000 bale dip in mill use. In recent time, the heavy rainfalls and pest attacks are affecting the cotton crop. In the northern states of Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan cotton crop has been affected due to pink bollworm infestation. Whereas in Maharashtra and Telangana excess rainfall in July, over the major cotton-growing districts has affected the crop. In spot market, Cotton gained by 80 Rupees to end at 47250 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.77% to settled at 715 while prices down -140 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 38240 and below same could see a test of 37640 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 39290, a move above could see prices testing 39740.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 37640-39740.
* Cotton dropped as India’s Cotton sowing gained by nearly 5.98% to 123.09 lakh hectares in 2022.
* However, cotton crops in India, remain under threat due to adverse weather conditions and pest attacks in major growing regions.
* USDA cut its global production forecast by 3.1 million bales, and the U.S. output outlook by 3 million bales for the 2022-23 crop year.
* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 80 Rupees to end at 47250 Rupees.

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