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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.07% at 50078 even as doubts over a potential summit between the U.S. and Russian presidents to discuss Ukraine kept bullion supported. The Kremlin said there were no concrete plans for a summit over Ukraine between U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Federal Reserve officials squelched what had been rising market expectations for an aggressive initial response to 40-year-high U.S. inflation, signalling that steady interest rate hikes should be enough to do the trick. This week, dealers were offering a discount of up to $5.5 an ounce on official domestic prices up from the last week's discount of $2.5. Jewellers have nearly stopped making purchases as they are anticipating prices will fall once tensions are eased between Russia and Ukraine. Union Trade & Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said India’s gems & jewellery sector is expected to achieve exports of $40 billion this year. The sector is expected to register a growth of 6.5% over the pre-Covid levels, Goyal said while addressing the inaugural ceremony of India International Jewellery Show (IIJS) Signature 2022, organised by the Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC). SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings rose 0.5%. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.52% to settled at 10979 while prices down -34 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 49849 and below same could see a test of 49619 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 50224, a move above could see prices testing 50369.
Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 49619-50369.
Gold prices eased even as doubts over a potential summit between the U.S. and Russian presidents to discuss Ukraine kept bullion supported.
Fed officials squelched what had been rising market expectations for an aggressive initial response to 40-year-high U.S. inflation
Asia Gold: High prices hit purchases, Indian dealers offer big discounts


Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.49% at 63591 as news of a summit between U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin fueled hopes for a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine conflict. U.S. officials said that the proposed summit would happen only if Russia did not attack Ukraine. Policy uncertainties also weighed on bullion prices after St. Louis Fed president James Bullard, who had just called for aggressive action, warned last week that inflation could get out of control without rate hikes. The German economy will probably shrink again in the current quarter as a new wave of coronavirus infections stops many people from going to work, the Bundesbank, while predicting a rebound in the spring. Europe's largest economy went into reverse in the last three months of 2021 as its large industrial sector was hit by supply snags. "Unlike in previous waves of the pandemic it is not just activity in the services sector that is likely affected by containment measures and behavioural changes," Germany's central bank wrote in a monthly report. German producer prices jumped 25% on the year in January, pushed up mainly by higher energy prices, official data showed. The January figures continued the trend of very steep increases for the fourth month in a row after October, November and December showed jumps of 18.4%, 19.2% and 24.2%, respectively. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3% to settled at 6574 while prices down -311 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 63324 and below same could see a test of 63058 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 63803, a move above could see prices testing 64016.
Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 63058-64016.
Silver dropped as news of a summit between U.S. President and Russian counterpart Putin fueled hopes for a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine conflict.
U.S. officials said that the proposed summit would happen only if Russia did not attack Ukraine.
The German economy will probably shrink again in the current quarter as a new wave of coronavirus infections stops many people from going to work


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 2.05% at 6868 amid doubts over a summit between US President Biden and Russian President Putin that could solve the conflict in Ukraine. OPEC+ should stick to its current agreement to add 400,000 barrels of oil per day each month to output, ministers of Arab oil-producing countries said as they gathered in Saudi Arabia, rejecting calls to pump more to ease pressure on prices. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, a group known as OPEC+, agreed on Feb. 2 to stick to moderate rises in oil output, citing persistent uncertainty. Saudi Arabia's crude oil production increased by 110,000 barrels per day month-on-month in December to 10.02 million bpd, official data showed. Exports fell slightly to 6.937 million bpd from 6.949 million bpd in November, according to monthly figures provided by Saudi Arabia and other oil-exporting countries to the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI). Saudi crude output in December was 1.04 million bpd above year-ago levels and 428,000 above December 2019 levels, according to the JODI website. OPEC+ compliance with oil production cuts rose to 129% in January, indicating that some members continue to struggle to raise their output. The January figure compares with 122% in December, and 117% in November. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 29.68% to settled at 8502 while prices up 138 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6720 and below same could see a test of 6571 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6968, a move above could see prices testing 7067.
Trading Ideas:
Crude oil trading range for the day is 6571-7067.
Crude oil rose amid doubts over a summit between US President Biden and Russian President Putin that could solve the conflict in Ukraine.
Arab oil producers say OPEC+ should stick to current output agreement
Saudi crude production exceeds 10 mln bpd in Dec; exports dip


Nat.Gas
Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 5.52% at 355.8 on record liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and a forecast for much colder weather and higher heating demand in two weeks' time. That price increase came despite a continued slow recovery in U.S. output from cold weather-related reductions earlier in the month and forecasts for less cold weather and lower heating demand next week than previously expected. The United States has worked with other nations to ensure gas supplies, mostly LNG, would keep flowing to Europe if Russia cuts off exports there. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell from a record 97.3 bcfd in December to 94.0 bcfd in January and 92.9 bcfd so far in February, as cold weather froze oil and gas wells in several producing regions earlier in the new year. On a daily basis, however, gas production has gained almost every day since dropping to 86.3 bcfd during winter storm on Feb. 4. Output rose to a recent high of 95.2 bcfd on Feb. 11, the most since Jan. 1. With colder weather coming, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 121.6 bcfd this week to 123.1 bcfd next week and 128.8 bcfd in two weeks. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -23.78% to settled at 1478 while prices up 18.6 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 344.6 and below same could see a test of 333.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 365.1, a move above could see prices testing 374.5.
Trading Ideas:
Natural gas trading range for the day is 333.5-374.5.
Natural gas rose on record LNG exports and a forecast for much colder weather and higher heating demand in two weeks' time.
The United States and Europe have said they would sanction Russia if it invaded Ukraine, likely prompting Russia to cut some gas exports to Europe.
Russia provides around 30-40% of Europe's gas supplies, totaling about 16.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2021.



Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.79% at 762.3 as the risk aversion sentiment was strong in the market on the back of uncertainties haunting the Russia-Ukraine issue. The state planner in China, the biggest metals consumer, said it will take steps to stabilise the commodity market and hasten construction of new infrastructure, in the effort to promote steady industrial growth. In the most recent developments, US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to a proposal by France's Emanuel Macron to hold a summit over Ukraine. Aside from Russia-Ukraine headlines, surging demand, especially in developed countries, with increasing usage in electric vehicles and wind farms, solar panels and the power grid, combined with tight supply, lent further optimism to the copper bulls. In China, the central bank did not cut the interest rate further, and the LPR disclosed today was in line with market estimate, hence the market sentiment was stable. On the fundamentals, LME copper inventory added 300 mt to 74,000 mt, which was still low, hence underpinning copper prices. The market shall watch the unadjusted reading of US Markit manufacturing PMI, the geopolitical issue as well as the US Fed’s speeches. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 19.76% to settled at 2921 while prices down -6.1 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 759.7 and below same could see a test of 757.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 767, a move above could see prices testing 771.7.
Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 757.1-771.7.
Copper seen some pressure as the risk aversion sentiment was strong in the market on the back of uncertainties haunting the Russia-Ukraine issue.
The state planner in China, said it will take steps to stabilise the commodity market.
In China, the central bank did not cut the interest rate further, and the LPR disclosed today was in line with market estimate, hence the market sentiment was stable.


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.59% at 294.65 as total zinc inventories across seven Chinese markets stood at 268,900 mt as of February 21, up 5,800 mt from Friday February 18, and 14,600 mt from Monday February 14. The inventory in Shanghai rose more slowly after the downstream resumed the production that created more purchase demand. Guangdong saw added stocks amid high arrivals and gradually rising shipments from the warehouses. In Tianjin, the arrivals were still high, while the downstream was slow in resuming the production, hence the inventory kept rising. The downstream in-plant inventory was in the multi-year low, meaning that the social inventory will drop immediately after the recovery of terminal consumption/orders, which will shore up the downstream operating rates. Total zinc inventories across seven Chinese markets stood at 268,900 mt as of February 21, up 5,800 mt from Friday February 18, and 14,600 mt from Monday February 14. The risk aversion sentiment was strong in the market on the back of uncertainties haunting the Russia-Ukraine issue. On the macro front, the Russia-Ukraine issue intensified, which sent US dollar index to highs. According to media, on Thursday evening, US Secretary of State Blinken has agreed to meet with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov this week, easing the market sentiment. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 24.95% to settled at 1307 while prices down -1.75 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 293.3 and below same could see a test of 291.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 296.6, a move above could see prices testing 298.4.
Trading Ideas:
Zinc trading range for the day is 291.8-298.4.
Zinc dropped as total zinc inventories across seven Chinese markets stood at 268,900 mt up 5,800 mt.
The inventory in Shanghai rose more slowly after the downstream resumed the production that created more purchase demand.
The risk aversion sentiment was strong in the market on the back of uncertainties haunting the Russia-Ukraine issue.


Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled up by 0.6% at 1825 as low inventories, healthy demand from manufacturers of electric vehicle batteries and worries about supplies from Russia spurred buying. The nickel market has been roiled in recent weeks as traders brace for any disruptions to Russian supplies. The country’s exports account for 5.3% of global production, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. The metal rose as much as 2.8% and traded 2.2% higher at $23,920 on the London Metal Exchange in New York. It earlier touched the highest since January 24. Nickel stocks in LME-registered warehouses have fallen about 69% since April last year to 83,328 tonnes, while the premium for cash nickel over the three-month contract rose to $465 a tonne. Stocks of bagged briquette, easily crushed into small particles and dissolved in sulphuric acid to make nickel sulphate for batteries, at 62,940 tonnes are down 69% since last April. Cancelled warrants -- metal earmarked for delivery -- at 52% suggest another 43,638 tonnes is due to leave the LME system. Worries about shortages on the LME market have been reinforced by one company holding between 50%-79% of LME nickel warrants and cash contracts. This has created a premium for the cash over the three-month nickel contract. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 50.03% to settled at 2738 while prices up 10.9 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1802.9 and below same could see a test of 1780.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1840.5, a move above could see prices testing 1856.
Trading Ideas:
Nickel trading range for the day is 1780.8-1856.
Nickel climbed as low inventories, healthy demand from manufacturers of electric vehicle batteries and worries about supplies from Russia spurred buying.
The nickel market has been roiled in recent weeks as traders brace for any disruptions to Russian supplies.
Nickel stocks in LME-registered warehouses have fallen about 69% since April last year to 83,328 tonnes


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.67% at 263.55 as global primary aluminium output in January fell 4.5% year on year to 5.513 million tonnes, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. Estimated Chinese production declined to 3.1 million tonnes in January from 3.36 million a year earlier, the IAI said. The United States and European Union countries are unlikely to impose blanket sanctions on Rusal if Russia invades Ukraine as that would exacerbate aluminium shortages, propel prices to new records and damage manufacturing. Rusal, which accounts for about 6% of global aluminium supplies estimated by analysts at around 70 million tonnes this year, is the world's largest producer outside China. The global aluminium giant, Norsk Hydro has reported that one of the four production lines at its part-owned aluminium smelter in Brazil, Albras was shut down due to an internal power distribution failure. The power distribution failure appeared within one potline at Albras, which accordingly lead to a shutdown of the affected potline. The potline impacted by the power disruption produces 110,000 tonnes of liquid aluminium annually. However, the other three potlines at Albras were not affected and are functioning normally. The high aluminium prices suppressed addition demand next to rigid demand, and the recovery of demand in north China still needs time. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 49.65% to settled at 2586 while prices up 1.75 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 261 and below same could see a test of 258.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 265.1, a move above could see prices testing 266.5.
Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 258.3-266.5.
Aluminium rose as global aluminium output in Jan falls 4.5% y/y to 5.5 mln T
Norsk Hydro has reported, Albras was shut down due to an internal power distribution failure.
The high aluminium prices suppressed addition demand next to rigid demand, and the recovery of demand in north China still needs time.


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.49% at 966.2 on short covering after prices dropped as sentiments dropped among the trader with the third wave of corona virus is spreading five times faster. There is an explosive situation of infection in seven states of the country. Due to the rapid spread of Omicron, this curiosity arises in the mind whether there will be a lock down in the country. Overall 2022 Q1 prices are expected to see good support as the Indian pharma industry has shown a double digit growth of around 15% led by growth of Covid-19 products in the last one year as against a single digit growth of 3% shown last year, according to Indian pharmaceutical market research company Pharmasofttech AWACS Pvt. Ltd in its latest report. Also as per the latest news going viral in market is that Mandi Tax has been exempted for exports and the orders have been sent to all Mandi Sectt offices district wise, while trader are waiting for complete information on same. Due to lackluster price move since last 2 year with poor export performance this year's sowing can see much impact resulting surge in prices. Also the FMCG makers also expect that a sudden increase in COVID cases and some restrictions imposed by local authorities in some states would again impact the demand for out of home' channels products, which was recovering from the last few months, though demand for home consumption and immunity products is going to gain for few weeks. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 0.1 Rupees to end at 1089.4 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 70.57% to settled at 655 while prices up 4.7 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 961.4 and below same could see a test of 956.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 969.4, a move above could see prices testing 972.7.
Trading Ideas:
Mentha oil trading range for the day is 956.7-972.7.
In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 0.1 Rupees to end at 1089.4 Rupees per 360 kgs.
Mentha oil gained on short covering after prices dropped as sentiments dropped with the third wave of corona virus is spreading faster.
Overall 2022 Q1 prices are expected to see good support as the Indian pharma industry has shown a double digit growth of around 15%.
Due to lackluster price move since last 2 year with poor export performance this year's sowing can see much impact resulting surge in prices.


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -2.07% at 10006 as the arrival of the new crop has started in the markets of Telangana and Maharashtra. Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones. In the first 7 months (April-October) of the financial year 2021-22, exports declined by 23% to 89,850 tonnes over the previous year, but higher by 6.5% over the 5-year average. For the past three years, traders were offering lower price for turmeric due to lack of demand. The farmers, who incurred losses during this period due to low price, are hoping to get good price this year, so that they could clear their dues to some extent. The market sentiment is buoyant mainly since the ending stocks are expected to be 17-18 lakh bags (50 kg each) this year against 25 lakh bags last year. Spices Board data showed turmeric production this year being projected at 11.01 lakh tonnes against 11.78 lakh tonnes last year, mainly on the output being affected in Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Haryana. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 9391.65 Rupees gained 147.2 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.85% to settled at 11810 while prices down -212 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 9786 and below same could see a test of 9568 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 10336, a move above could see prices testing 10668.
Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 9568-10668.
Turmeric dropped as the arrival of the new crop has started in the markets of Telangana and Maharashtra.
Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones.
In the first 7 months (April-October) of the financial year 2021-22, exports declined by 23% to 89,850 tonnes over the previous year.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 9391.65 Rupees gained 147.2 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -1.29% at 21830 as export demand will still under pressure due to tariff cost and ahead of arrival despite the news that China export started again. there were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand. In 2021-22, the area under cumin in Gujarat is only 3.07 lakh hectares as against 4.69 lakh hectares in the same period last year and production is expected to decline by 41% to 2.37 lakh tonnes as compared to last year's 4 lakh tonnes as per second advance estimates. In Rajasthan too, there has been a decline of about 30% in the area. According to government data, cumin exports declined by 24% year-on-year to 1.74 lakh tonnes in April-December from 2.30 lakh tonnes in the previous year. The export of cumin seeds declined by 20% year-on-year to 1.61 lakh tonnes in April-November, from 2.02 lakh tonnes in the previous year. There is a possibility of damage to the cumin crop due to rain and cloudy sky. The production in Syria had fallen by roughly 25-30 percent in 2021, versus the previous year because of political instability. The cropped area has fallen due to a shift towards other crops like cotton, soybean and mustard, which offered lucrative returns last year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 715.2 Rupees to end at 21700 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.69% to settled at 11055 while prices down -285 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 21520 and below same could see a test of 21215 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 22315, a move above could see prices testing 22805.
Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 21215-22805.
Jeera dropped on profit booking as export demand will still under pressure due to tariff cost and ahead of arrival.
In 2021-22, the area under cumin in Gujarat is only 3.07 lakh hectares as against 4.69 lakh hectares in the same period last year.
In Rajasthan too, there has been a decline of about 30% in the area.
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 715.2 Rupees to end at 21700 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -1.94% at 36990 as production of Cotton is estimated at 34.06 million bales (each of 170 kg) is higher by 1.12 million bales than the average cotton production of 32.95 million bales, as per 2nd Advance Estimates for 2021-22. There were reports U.S. cotton plantings are expected to climb amid strong foreign demand, higher input costs for farmers and prolonged drought in Texas, the crop’s top growing state. U.S. farmers are projected to sow 12 million acres for the season beginning Aug. 1, up about 7.3% from the previous year, according to the National Cotton Council’s planting-intentions survey showed. Global cotton consumption is expected to rise 2.8% this year, according to data from the United States Department of Agriculture. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised the estimate for U.S. stocks at the end of its 2021/22 crop year and projected a decline in the country's exports in its monthly supply-demand report. In its February World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, the USDA raised U.S. ending stocks estimates by 300,000 bales to 3.50 million bales, while U.S. production estimates were unchanged at 17.62 million bales. However low cotton yield this season due to excessive rain and pink bollworm attack has resulted in the crop selling at over 60 per cent higher than the MSP. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -220 Rupees to end at 37510 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -27.39% to settled at 3366 while prices down -730 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 36420 and below same could see a test of 35860 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 37680, a move above could see prices testing 38380.
Trading Ideas:
Cotton trading range for the day is 35860-38380.
Cotton dropped as production of Cotton is estimated at 34.06 mln bales is higher by 1.12 mln bales than the average cotton production of 32.95 mln bales.
However downside seen limited amid low cotton yield this season due to excessive rain and pink bollworm attack
U.S. cotton plantings are expected to climb amid strong foreign demand, higher input costs for farmers and prolonged drought in Texas
In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -220 Rupees to end at 37510 Rupees.

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