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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.1% at 50379 with lingering worries about the Russia-Ukraine crisis pushing up demand for the safe-haven asset. Western nations imposed new sanctions on Russia for ordering troops into separatist regions of eastern Ukraine and threatened to go further if Moscow launched an all-out invasion of its neighbour. Federal Reserve officials quelled what had been rising market expectations for an aggressive initial response to 40-year-high U.S. inflation, signalling that steady interest rate hikes should be enough. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields edged higher, raising the opportunity cost of holding non-interest paying bullion. Buyers in major Asian hubs put off physical gold purchases due to a rally in prices on escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions, pushing Indian dealers to offer the highest discounts in nearly seven months. This week, dealers were offering a discount of up to $5.5 an ounce on official domestic prices up from the last week's discount of $2.5. Jewellers have nearly stopped making purchases as they are anticipating prices will fall once tensions are eased between Russia and Ukraine. Swiss exports of gold to India fell in January, while shipments of bullion to mainland China surged to their highest since December 2016, Swiss customs data showed. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.05% to settled at 11490 while prices up 51 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 50082 and below same could see a test of 49785 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 50545, a move above could see prices testing 50711.
Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 49785-50711.
Gold prices climbed, extending recent gains, with lingering worries about the Russia-Ukraine crisis pushing up demand for the safe-haven asset.
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields firm
Atlanta Fed President Bostic says the FOMC is attempting to assess the economic balance 'in real time'.


Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.37% at 64585 as investors awaiting further developments on the Ukraine crisis, while also preparing for impending policy tightening by major central banks. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes rose to 1.977 percent from 1.947 percent Tuesday, weighing on bullion prices. Traders are rebuilding bets on a 50 basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in March due to surging inflation expectations and hawkishness from some officials. Investors were also focused on updates surrounding the situation in Ukraine amid receding fears of a full-fledged war. After announcing what he called the "first tranche" of sanctions, including steps to starve Russia of financing and target financial institutions, U.S. President Joe Biden left the door open to a final effort at diplomacy. There's no question that Russia is the aggressor, but there is still time to avert the worst case scenario that will bring untold suffering to millions of people, the president said in a nationwide address from the White House. Meanwhile, Russian President Putin said Moscow is ready to look for "diplomatic solutions" amid tensions with the West over Ukraine. "But the interests of Russia, the security of our citizens, are non-negotiable for us," he added. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.37% to settled at 5691 while prices up 240 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 64059 and below same could see a test of 63533 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 64870, a move above could see prices testing 65155.
Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 63533-65155.
Silver gains as investors awaiting further developments on the Ukraine crisis, while also preparing for impending policy tightening by major central banks.
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes rose to 1.977 percent from 1.947 percent Tuesday, weighing on bullion prices.
Traders are rebuilding bets on a 50 basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in March due to surging inflation expectations and hawkishness from some officials.


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.55% at 6879 as the likelihood of a return of more Iranian crude to the market weighed on prices, though the possibility of an imminent breakthrough appears unlikely. Supply worries eased somewhat after it became clear the first wave of U.S. and European sanctions on Russia for sending troops into eastern Ukraine would not disrupt oil supplies. After announcing what he called the "first tranche" of sanctions, including steps to starve Russia of financing and target financial institutions, U.S. President Joe Biden left the door open to a final effort at diplomacy. There is no need for OPEC+ to expand its oil production increases, Nigeria's petroleum minister said, even as oil nears $100 a barrel, as a potential deal between Iran and world powers will increase supplies. "We don't have do anything extraordinary this time because we are expecting a lot of production," Timipre Sylva said on the sidelines of a gas exporters conference in Qatar's capital Doha. Supply and demand of crude oil in the market are now in balance, Iraqi Oil Minister Ihsan Abdul Jabbar said Tuesday on the sidelines of a regional gas exporters conference in Doha. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.47% to settled at 7216 while prices down -38 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6764 and below same could see a test of 6649 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7004, a move above could see prices testing 7129.
Trading Ideas:
Crude oil trading range for the day is 6649-7129.
Crude oil dropped as the likelihood of a return of more Iranian crude to the market weighed on prices
US official: OPEC understand our concerns about importance of oil market stability
No need for extra OPEC+ supplies amid Iran talks, Nigeria says


Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 0.62% at 340.6 on forecasts for cooler weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. Data provider Refinitiv estimated 390 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks in the Lower 48 U.S. states, up from 372 HDDs estimated. The normal is 346 HDDs for this time of year. HDDs, used to estimate demand to heat homes and businesses, measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is below 65 Fahrenheit (18 Celsius). With colder weather coming, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 120.1 billion cubic feet per day this week to 123.7 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Tuesday. Refinitiv said the amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants has averaged 12.4 bcfd so far in February, in-line with January's monthly record of 12.4 bcfd. Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell from a record 97.3 bcfd in December to 94.0 bcfd in January and 93.2 bcfd so far in February, as cold weather froze oil and gas wells in several producing regions earlier in the new year. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.44% to settled at 5444 while prices up 2.1 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 331.6 and below same could see a test of 322.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 350, a move above could see prices testing 359.4.
Trading Ideas:
Natural gas trading range for the day is 322.6-359.4.
Natural gas rose on forecasts for cooler weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
The United States and Europe have said they would sanction Russia if it invaded Ukraine, likely prompting Russia to cut some gas exports to Europe.
Russia provides around 30-40% of Europe's gas supplies, totaling about 16.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2021.



Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.64% at 760.1 as investors weighed concerns about the escalating crisis over Ukraine against robust demand and supply disruptions. Western countries, Australia and Japan, announced sanctions targeting Russian banks, the country’s sovereign debt and elites after Moscow ordered troops into separatist regions of eastern Ukraine. Aside from conflict headlines, copper usage is surging, especially in developed countries, with increasing demand for electric vehicles and wind farms, solar panels and the power grid. Also, a political shift across high producing countries Chile and Peru ignited civil protest against mining companies that often halt trucks from heading to and returning from the mines, exacerbating supply tightness. The global world refined copper market showed a 79,000 tonnes deficit in November, compared with a 34,000 tonnes deficit in October, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. Between January and November last year, the copper market saw a shortage of 339,000 tonnes compared with a 487,000 tonne shortfall in the same period a year earlier, the ICSG said. World refined copper output in November was 2.073 million tonnes, while consumption was 2.152 million tonnes. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 12.5% to settled at 3745 while prices down -4.9 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 756.2 and below same could see a test of 752.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 766.8, a move above could see prices testing 773.4.
Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 752.2-773.4.
Copper prices dropped as investors weighed concerns about the escalating crisis over Ukraine against robust demand and supply disruptions.
Western countries, Australia and Japan, announced sanctions targeting Russian banks, the country’s sovereign debt and elites
Copper market in 79,000 tonne deficit in Nov 2021 – ICSG


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.69% at 296.25 as pressure seen after US has added zinc metal into the list of key minerals to stabilise zinc supply chain. On the fundamentals, the downstream has basically resumed the work, recovering the market demand to some extent. The global zinc market deficit narrowed to 37,300 tonnes in December from a revised shortfall of 43,100 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a deficit of 19,700 tonnes in November. During the full year 2021, ILZSG data showed a deficit of 192,000 tonnes versus a surplus of 503,000 tonnes in 2020. Around 13.5 million tonnes of zinc is produced and consumed each year. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) injected a total CNY 200 billion of 7-day reverse repos and kept the rate unchanged at 2.1 on February 23rd 2022, after a total CNY 100 billion injection in the previous day. With CNY 10 billion of reverse repos maturing on Wednesday, the central bank injected CNY 190 billion on a net basis on the day. The central bank said the move aims to maintain the reasonable and sufficient liquidity of the banking system. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.84% to settled at 1550 while prices down -2.05 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 294.4 and below same could see a test of 292.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 298.7, a move above could see prices testing 301.2.
Trading Ideas:
Zinc trading range for the day is 292.6-301.2.
Zinc dropped as pressure seen after US has added zinc metal into the list of key minerals to stabilise zinc supply chain.
Global zinc market deficit narrows to 37,300 T in Dec – ILZSG
PBOC injects CNY 200 billion into market


Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled down by -0.21% at 1845.2 as the exports of NORNICKEL nickel from Russia to China are likely to rise amid the US sanction on Russia. If the estimate materialises, domestic nickel supply tightness will ease. On the fundamentals, LME nickel inventory dropped by another 1,014 mt, including 0 mt of nickel plate and 1,014 mt of nickel briquette. The output of high-grade nickel matte in Indonesia was still low. Hence the overall supply was tight. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) injected a total CNY 200 billion of 7-day reverse repos and kept the rate unchanged at 2.1 on February 23rd 2022, after a total CNY 100 billion injection in the previous day. With CNY 10 billion of reverse repos maturing on Wednesday, the central bank injected CNY 190 billion on a net basis on the day. The central bank said the move aims to maintain the reasonable and sufficient liquidity of the banking system. The premium for cash nickel over the three-month contract soared to its highest since 2007 at $645 a tonne, as inventories in LME-registered warehouses slid to a more than two-year low of 82,314 tonnes. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10% to settled at 2744 while prices down -3.8 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1832.3 and below same could see a test of 1819.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1857.8, a move above could see prices testing 1870.4.
Trading Ideas:
Nickel trading range for the day is 1819.4-1870.4.
Nickel dropped as the exports of NORNICKEL nickel from Russia to China are likely to rise amid the US sanction on Russia.
LME nickel inventory dropped by another 1,014 mt, including 0 mt of nickel plate and 1,014 mt of nickel briquette.
PBOC injected a total CNY 200 billion of 7-day reverse repos and kept the rate unchanged at 2.1


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.51% at 264.55 on profit booking after reports aluminium smelter Albras in Brazil planned to restart its production lines. The first batch of equipment will be resumed in Q2, and the full production is expected to be recovered in Q4. Global primary aluminium output in January 2022 dropped 4.5% YoY to 5.51 million mt. Western nations sought to step up sanctions pressure on major metals producer Russia. The United States, the European Union and Britain have targeted Russian banks and elites over Moscow's deployment of troops in separatist regions of eastern Ukraine, in one of the worst security crises in Europe in decades. In aluminium, the LME cash contract commanded a $40 a tonne premium over the three-month contract, pointing to worries over supply. China produced 3.204 million mt of aluminium in January (31 days), up 3.6% MoM. The daily output averaged 103,000 mt, up 1,000 mt/day on the month. The annual output was about 37.6 million mt. In January, the proportion of aluminium and aluminium liquid in domestic was about 64.2%, down 1.3% compared with December MoM, and up by 0.8% YoY. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.99% to settled at 2895 while prices down -1.35 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 262.1 and below same could see a test of 259.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 266.7, a move above could see prices testing 268.7.
Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 259.5-268.7.
Aluminium dropped on profit booking after reports aluminium smelter Albras in Brazil planned to restart its production lines.
The first batch of equipment will be resumed in Q2, and the full production is expected to be recovered in Q4.
Global primary aluminium output in January 2022 dropped 4.5% YoY to 5.51 million mt.

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 1.75% at 984.3 on short covering after prices dropped as sentiments dropped among the trader with the third wave of corona virus is spreading five times faster. There is an explosive situation of infection in seven states of the country. Due to the rapid spread of Omicron, this curiosity arises in the mind whether there will be a lock down in the country. Overall 2022 Q1 prices are expected to see good support as the Indian pharma industry has shown a double digit growth of around 15% led by growth of Covid-19 products in the last one year as against a single digit growth of 3% shown last year, according to Indian pharmaceutical market research company Pharmasofttech AWACS Pvt. Ltd in its latest report. Also as per the latest news going viral in market is that Mandi Tax has been exempted for exports and the orders have been sent to all Mandi Sectt offices district wise, while trader are waiting for complete information on same. Due to lackluster price move since last 2 year with poor export performance this year's sowing can see much impact resulting surge in prices. Also the FMCG makers also expect that a sudden increase in COVID cases and some restrictions imposed by local authorities in some states would again impact the demand for out of home' channels products, which was recovering from the last few months, though demand for home consumption and immunity products is going to gain for few weeks. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 1.9 Rupees to end at 1093.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.83% to settled at 849 while prices up 16.9 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 970.2 and below same could see a test of 956 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 996.9, a move above could see prices testing 1009.4.
Trading Ideas:
Mentha oil trading range for the day is 956-1009.4.
In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 1.9 Rupees to end at 1093.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.
Mentha oil gained on short covering after prices dropped as sentiments dropped with the third wave of corona virus is spreading faster.
Overall 2022 Q1 prices are expected to see good support as the Indian pharma industry has shown a double digit growth of around 15%.
Due to lackluster price move since last 2 year with poor export performance this year's sowing can see much impact resulting surge in prices.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.76% at 9878 as the arrival of the new crop has started in the markets of Telangana and Maharashtra. Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones. In the first 7 months (April-October) of the financial year 2021-22, exports declined by 23% to 89,850 tonnes over the previous year, but higher by 6.5% over the 5-year average. For the past three years, traders were offering lower price for turmeric due to lack of demand. The farmers, who incurred losses during this period due to low price, are hoping to get good price this year, so that they could clear their dues to some extent. The market sentiment is buoyant mainly since the ending stocks are expected to be 17-18 lakh bags (50 kg each) this year against 25 lakh bags last year. Spices Board data showed turmeric production this year being projected at 11.01 lakh tonnes against 11.78 lakh tonnes last year, mainly on the output being affected in Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Haryana. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 9302.5 Rupees dropped -2.25 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.08% to settled at 12295 while prices down -76 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 9798 and below same could see a test of 9716 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 10028, a move above could see prices testing 10176.
Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 9716-10176.
Turmeric dropped as the arrival of the new crop has started in the markets of Telangana and Maharashtra.
Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones.
In the first 7 months (April-October) of the financial year 2021-22, exports declined by 23% to 89,850 tonnes over the previous year.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 9302.5 Rupees dropped -2.25 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -1.32% at 21985 as export demand will still under pressure due to tariff cost and ahead of arrival despite the news that China export started again. There were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand. In 2021-22, the area under cumin in Gujarat is only 3.07 lakh hectares as against 4.69 lakh hectares in the same period last year and production is expected to decline by 41% to 2.37 lakh tonnes as compared to last year's 4 lakh tonnes as per second advance estimates. In Rajasthan too, there has been a decline of about 30% in the area. According to government data, cumin exports declined by 24% year-on-year to 1.74 lakh tonnes in April-December from 2.30 lakh tonnes in the previous year. The export of cumin seeds declined by 20% year-on-year to 1.61 lakh tonnes in April-November, from 2.02 lakh tonnes in the previous year. There is a possibility of damage to the cumin crop due to rain and cloudy sky. The production in Syria had fallen by roughly 25-30 percent in 2021, versus the previous year because of political instability. The cropped area has fallen due to a shift towards other crops like cotton, soybean and mustard, which offered lucrative returns last year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 206.75 Rupees to end at 21678.95 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.23% to settled at 10668 while prices down -295 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 21715 and below same could see a test of 21440 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 22425, a move above could see prices testing 22860.
Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 21440-22860.
Jeera dropped as export demand will still under pressure due to tariff cost and ahead of arrival despite the news that China export started again.
In 2021-22, the area under cumin in Gujarat is only 3.07 lakh hectares as against 4.69 lakh hectares in the same period last year.
In Rajasthan too, there has been a decline of about 30% in the area.
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 206.75 Rupees to end at 21678.95 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.71% at 36800 amid low cotton yield this season due to excessive rain and pink bollworm attack has resulted in the crop selling at over 60 per cent higher than the minimum support price (MSP). Production of Cotton is estimated at 34.06 million bales (each of 170 kg) is higher by 1.12 million bales than the average cotton production of 32.95 million bales, as per 2nd Advance Estimates for 2021-22. India’s cotton production for the crop year 2021-2022 is estimated at 27million 480-Pound Bales versus USDA’s January estimate of 27.5million 480-pound bales and 2020- 21’s production of 27.6 480-pound bales. India’s ending stocks are estimated at 9.84million 480-pound bales for 2021-22, the lowest level in the 3-Year, versus 13.44 million 480- pound bales in 2020-2021 and 16.18 million 480- pound bales in 2019-20. The Cotton Association of India has reduced its cotton crop estimate for the 2021-22 season by 12.00 lakh bales to 34.8 million bales of 170 kgs from its previous estimate of 36 million bales of 170 kgs. As per USDA February report, the world-ending stock will fall further to 84.31million 480-pound bales, the lowest level in 3-Year, from their January’s forecast of 85.01million 480-pound bales and 2020-21’s Ending Stock of 88.41million 480-pound bales. In spot market, Cotton gained by 30 Rupees to end at 37210 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -50.68% to settled at 1023 while prices up 260 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 36680 and below same could see a test of 36560 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 36900, a move above could see prices testing 37000.
Trading Ideas:
Cotton trading range for the day is 36560-37000.
Cotton gained amid low cotton yield this season due to excessive rain and pink bollworm attack
Domestic cotton production has fallen for a third consecutive year in 2021-22
Domestic ending stocks will fall 26.8% in 2021-22 to a 3-Year low
In spot market, Cotton gained  by 30 Rupees to end at 37210 Rupees.

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