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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -1.09% at 59845 as stronger than expected manufacturing and service sector data adding to the current selling pressure. St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said, “The U.S. central bank should continue raising interest rates on the back of recent data showing inflation remains persistent while the broader economy seems poised to continue growing, even if slowly.” The combination of all three Fed officials expressed a narrative much different than many market participants assumed, which was a pause by the Federal Reserve in rate hikes to begin after one more rate hike in May. Market participants are now factoring in the possibility of additional rate hikes after the expected ¼% hike at the FOMC meeting in May. Elevated domestic prices kept physical gold demand muted across Asian hubs, forcing dealers in India to offer discounts for a sixth straight week, with the Akshaya Tritiya festival also failing to offer much respite. Demand was around 20% lower than normal as fewer people made bookings for Akshaya. Dealers offered discounts of $16 an ounce over official domestic prices versus last week's $22 discounts. High prices slowed purchases in China too, dealers said, with premiums of $1-$6 an ounce, well below the $40 premiums seen last month. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -9% to settle at 15685 while prices are down -658 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 59486 and below same could see a test of 59127 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 60340, a move above could see prices testing 60835.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 59127-60835.
* Gold dropped after stronger than expected US manufacturing and service data.
* Russia lowered gold holdings by 3.110 tonnes to 2,326.594 tonnes in March 2023
* Elevated domestic prices kept physical gold demand muted across Asian hubs

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -1.12% at 74654 as markets expecting the U.S. Federal Reserve to opt for a higher for longer interest rate stance to control inflation. Fed officials said inflation remains "far above" the central bank's 2% target. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman reiterated that more work needs to be done to bring down too-high inflation. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said that "some additional tightening may be needed to ensure policy is restrictive enough" to support the Fed's dual mandate of keeping both unemployment and inflation low. Meanwhile, data showing a surprising recovery in the euro zone helped ease concerns around an impending recession. A survey showed the eurozone economy's growth accelerated in April and hit an 11-month high. Data from the HCOB Flash Eurozone purchasing managers' index (PMI) survey published by S&P Global rose to 54.4 in April from 53.7 in March. Markets are pricing in an 84% chance of a 25-basis-point interest rate rise in May, leaving the dollar on track for its first weekly gain in over a month and making bullion expensive for overseas buyers. Global demand for silver rose by 18% last year to a record high of 1.24 billion ounces, creating a huge supply deficit, the Silver Institute said, predicting more shortages in the years to come. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -13.64% to settle at 9461 while prices are down -847 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 74231 and below same could see a test of 73807 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 75348, a move above could see prices testing 76041.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 73807-76041.
* Silver dropped as Fed to opt for a higher for longer interest rate stance
* Fed officials said inflation remains "far above" the central bank's 2% target.
* Fed’s Bowman reiterated that more work needs to be done to bring down too-high inflation.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 0.19% at 6398 buoyed by fairly strong data on private sector activity in the U.K. and eurozone. Concerns about the U.S. economic outlook and interest rate uncertainty limited the uptick in oil prices. Economic data showed weekly jobless claims rose last week, indicating the U.S. labour market may be starting to show signs of slowing as the lag effect of multiple interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve takes hold, fanning concerns about a slowdown in fuel demand. U.S. crude oil inventories last week fell more than forecast as refinery runs and exports rose, while gasoline stockpiles jumped unexpectedly on disappointing demand, Energy Information Administration data showed. Meanwhile, China may cut quotas for refined oil products exports in a second batch for 2023 as domestic demand improves while the need to boost its economy through oil products abates. On the supply side, oil loading from Russia's western ports in April is likely to rise to the highest since 2019, above 2.4 million barrels per day, despite Moscow's pledge to cut output. U.S. crude stockpiles in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell last week to the lowest since October 1983, Energy Information Administration data showed. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.9% to settle at 5935 while prices are up 12 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6333 and below same could see a test of 6267 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6454, a move above could see prices testing 6509.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6267-6509.
* Crude oil recovered buoyed by fairly strong data y in U.K. and eurozone.
* U.S. crude oil inventories last week fell more than forecast as refinery runs and exports rose.
* Oil loading from Russia's western ports in April is likely to rise to the highest since 2019, above 2.4 mbpd

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -1.13% at 183.1 on a bigger-than-expected storage build and forecasts for milder weather and weaker-than-anticipated heating demand. The latest EIA report showed US utilities added 75 bcf of gas into storage last week, more than market projections of a 69 bcf increase, as warmer temperatures kept heating demand low. US gas demand, including exports, is estimated to rise from 95.6 bcfd this week to 96.8 bcfd next week, according to Refinitiv forecast. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 14.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, up from a record 13.2 bcfd in March. The seven big U.S. LNG export plants can turn about 13.8 bcfd of gas into LNG. LNG plants can pull in a little more gas than they can turn into LNG because they use some of the fuel to power equipment used to produce LNG. Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 100.2 bcfd so far in April, up from 99.7 bcfd in March. Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly colder than normal through May 3 before returning to normal from May 4-6. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -14.11% to settle at 17249 while prices are down -2.1 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 178.7 and below same could see a test of 174.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 187, a move above could see prices testing 190.9.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 174.3-190.9.
* Natural gas dropped on a bigger-than-expected storage build.
* Pressure also seen on forecasts for milder weather and weaker-than-anticipated heating demand.
* The latest EIA report showed US utilities added 75 bcf of gas into storage last week

Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -1.09% at 760.8 as China's refined copper production in March jumped 9% year-on-year to a record high of 1.05 million tonnes, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed. On a daily basis, average copper output stood at 34,000 tonnes over the March period, according to calculations based on the official data. Glencore reported a 5% fall in its copper production for the first quarter, owing to lower grades due to phasing of a pit at Collahuasi and delays associated with adverse weather conditions at Antamina. U.S. economic data raised fears about a recession that could darken the demand outlook for the metal. Copper prices, often seen as an economic bellwether, were weighed down by latest U.S. data showing a loss of labor market momentum, and slumping retail sales and manufacturing activity. With a slowing economic outlook expected to put pressure on copper prices in the second half of 2023, record-low inventories, supply constraints and expected demand growth in the medium term from green transition will likely deliver sustained price volatility. China's consumer demand recovery needs time to pick up due to the "scarring effect" of COVID-19 and the central bank will consolidate its financing support for the real economy, officials from the People's Bank of China (PBOC) said. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 23.66% to settle at 4244 while prices are down -8.4 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 757.7 and below same could see a test of 754.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 766.3, a move above could see prices testing 771.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 754.6-771.8.
* Copper prices dropped as China March refined copper output hits record high
* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 2.3 % from last Friday.
* Glencore reported a 5% fall in its copper production for the first quarter

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -1.96% at 243.2 as U.S. economic data raised fears about a recession that could darken the demand outlook for the metal. Data shows that social inventories of zinc ingots across seven major markets in China totalled 136,700 mt as of April 21, down 6,000 mt from Monday, April 17 and 5,000 mt lower compared with the prior week. In Shanghai, the market arrivals were scarce as buyers mainly picked up cargoes at smelters, in addition to on-dip purchases before the Workers' Day holiday. As a result, the inventory in Shanghai dropped sharply. In Guangdong, the inventory dipped amid normal arrivals as downstream buyers were motivated by low zinc prices to restock. New York Fed Bank President John Williams said that inflation in the US is still at problematic levels and the central bank will act to lower it. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic indicated earlier this week that he was happy for one more hike before holding rates for some time above 5%. The Beige Book survey showed that US economic activity was little changed in recent weeks as employment growth moderated and price increases appeared to slow. Data showed that the domestic refined zinc output increased 55,300 mt or 11.03% MoM and 12.26% YoY to 556,800 mt in March as expected. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 51.78% to settle at 2723 while prices are down -4.85 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 241.3 and below same could see a test of 239.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 246.6, a move above could see prices testing 249.9.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 239.3-249.9.
* Zinc dropped as U.S. economic data raised fears about a recession.
* Data shows that social inventories of zinc ingots across China totalled 136,700 mt as of April 21, down 6,000 mt
* Data showed that the domestic refined zinc output increased 55,300 mt or 11.03% MoM

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.84% at 212.95 on concern over global economic growth and demand in China. Global primary aluminium output rose 0.5% year on year in March to 5.772 million tonnes, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. Some Japanese aluminium buyers have agreed to pay global producers premiums in the April-June quarter of 2023 that are as much as 53% higher than the previous quarter, reflecting higher overseas prices. The Japanese buyers will pay premiums of between $125-$130 per tonne for shipments in April to June, the five sources, who declined to be identified because of the sensitivity of the discussions. China's consumer demand recovery needs time to pick up due to the "scarring effect" of COVID-19 and the central bank will consolidate its financing support for the real economy, officials from the People's Bank of China (PBOC) said. The PBOC expects consumer price inflation to pick up later this year but there is no basis for long term deflation or inflation in the country, Zou Lan, head of the monetary policy department at PBOC, said at a news conference in Beijing. Severe power shortages in China's southwestern Yunnan province are likely to cut aluminium production in the country's fourth-largest producing province. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 91.28% to settle at 2018 while prices are down -1.8 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 211.7 and below same could see a test of 210.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 214.2, a move above could see prices testing 215.5.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 210.5-215.5.
* Aluminum dropped on concern over global economic growth and demand in China.
* Global aluminium output rises 0.5% y/y to 5.77 mln T in March – IAI
* Some Japanese aluminium buyers agree to higher April – June premiums

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.72% at 963.2 as demand was poor due to recession fears and global banking turmoil. The collapse of California’s Silicon Valley Bank and troubles at Swiss lender Credit Suisse have shaken the financial markets and dampened the outlook for oil consumption. Market participants expect prices to remain under pressure until demand recovers and market sentiment improves. Mentha exports during Apr-Feb 2023, dropped by 10.67 percent to 2,227.55 tonnes as compared to 2,493.53 tonnes exported during Apr-Feb 2022. In February 2023 around 210.78 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 233.21 tonnes in January 2023 showing a drop of 9.62%. In February 2023 around 210.78 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 157.90 tonnes in February 2022 showing a rise of 33.49%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -38.4 Rupees to end at 1131.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -9.31% to settle at 370 while prices are down -7 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 959 and below same could see a test of 954.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 969.7, a move above could see prices testing 976.2.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 951.9-980.9.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -8.8 Rupees to end at 1132.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices dropped as demand was poor due to recession fears and global banking turmoil.
* Mentha exports during Apr-Feb 2023, dropped by 10.67 percent to 2,227.55 tonnes
* In February 2023 around 210.78 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 157.90 tonnes in February 2022 showing a rise of 33.49%.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.06% at 6696 on short covering after prices remained under pressure on muted demand against the adequate supplies in the local market. Millers are stockists are in wait and watch mood in wake of rising arrivals at major trading centers. Arrivals of new crop has improved as about 7-8 lakh bags touched the Nizamabad market so far wherein about 7 lakh bags were reported in Sangli. Market is running with huge stocks and stockists are trying to release their stocks on every rise in prices. Turmeric exports during Apr-Feb 2023, rose by 10.42 percent at 151,298.89 tonnes as compared to 137,017.23 tonnes exported during Apr- Feb 2022. In February 2023 around 14,806.30 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,484.25 tonnes in January 2023 showing a rise of 18.60%. In February 2023 around 14,806.30 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 10,358.22 tonnes in February 2022 showing a rise of 42.94%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6794.65 Rupees gained 24.1 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.17% to settle at 14735 while prices are down -4 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6662 and below same could see a test of 6628 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6726, a move above could see prices testing 6756.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6512-6888.
* Turmeric gains on short covering after prices remained under pressure on muted demand against the adequate supplies.
* The crop is good this season despite some projection of a lower crop.
* Turmeric exports during Apr-Jan 2023, rose by 7.76 percent at 1,36,492.59 tonnes
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6794.65 Rupees gained 24.1 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 1.68% at 41180 on profit booking after prices rose on crop worries grow due to unseasonal rains and hailstorms in Rajasthan, the major producing state. The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season, which has boosted the demand from domestic and export buyers. The jeera growing regions in southern and north-western parts of Rajasthan in the districts of Alwar, Jaisalmer, Jaipur, Bikaner, Bhilwara, and Barmer have received a fresh spell of unseasonal rains in the past week, triggering concerns on the crop condition. For the jeera crop, moist or cloudy weather impacts the quality of the seed, which often turns blackish, indicating spoilage. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. One bag holds 55kg. This will result in a demand-supply imbalance. Currently, at least 70% of the crop in Rajasthan and around 30% in Gujarat have yet to be harvested. Because of the rain in both states, the total yield will be reduced. The cumin crop was destroyed by two bouts of unseasonal rainfall during the harvest season. In comparison to the planned arrival of 70 lakh bags, the stock will be reduced to 60-65 lakh bags, with a carry-forward stock of 5 lakh bags from last year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 480.6 Rupees to end at 40870.5 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.5% to settle at 8070 while prices are up 680 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 40650 and below same could see a test of 40120 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 41595, a move above could see prices testing 42010.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 39965-42315.
* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices rose on crop worries grow due to unseasonal rains and hailstorms.
* The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season, which has boosted the demand from domestic and export buyers.
* Cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 309.8 Rupees to end at 41180.3 Rupees per 100 kg.

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