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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 1.56% at 50392 as Russian news reports of a mortar fire in eastern Ukraine led investors towards safe-haven assets, while dovish signals from U.S. Federal Reserve's minutes of meeting also underpinned bullion. Russia-backed rebels accused Ukrainian forces of shelling their territory in violation of agreements aimed at ending conflict in the contested Donbass area. Minutes of the latest policy meeting showed that while policymakers agreed that it would "soon be appropriate" to raise the Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate from its near-zero level, they would re-asses the rate hike timeline at each meeting. Swiss exports of gold to mainland China surged in January to their highest since December 2016, but shipments of bullion to India fell, Swiss customs data showed. U.S. homebuilding fell more than expected in January as many parts of the country experienced freezing temperatures, but a surge in permits suggested a rebound in the coming months was likely amid a severe shortage of homes on the market. Housing starts dropped 4.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.638 million units last month, the Commerce Department said. Data for December was revised slightly up to a rate of 1.708 million units from the previously reported 1.702 million units. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.31% to settled at 11936 while prices up 774 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 49820 and below same could see a test of 49248 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 50701, a move above could see prices testing 51010.
Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 49248-51010.
Gold jumped as Russian news reports of a mortar fire in eastern Ukraine led investors towards safe-haven assets
Dovish signals from U.S. Federal Reserve's minutes of meeting also underpinned bullion.
Ukraine, Russia-backed rebels trade accusations of shelling


Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.89% at 63861 as investors worried about escalating geopolitical tensions involving the West, Russia, and Ukraine. NATO said it had not seen Russia pulling back troops from Ukraine's borders, while Russian news reported mortars fired in eastern Ukraine. U.S. homebuilding fell more than expected in January as many parts of the country experienced freezing temperatures, but a surge in permits suggested a rebound in the coming months was likely amid a severe shortage of homes on the market. Housing starts dropped 4.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.638 million units last month, the Commerce Department said. Data for December was revised slightly up to a rate of 1.708 million units from the previously reported 1.702 million units. The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly rose last week, but remained at levels associated with tightening labor market conditions. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 23,000 to a seasonally adjusted 248,000 for the week ended Feb. 12, the Labor Department said. Claims had been declining since hitting a three-month high in mid-January as coronavirus cases, fueled by the Omicron variant, raged across the country. The United States is reporting an average of 145,769 new COVID-19 infections a day, sharply down from the more than 700,000 in mid-January. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.34% to settled at 6998 while prices up 562 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 63184 and below same could see a test of 62507 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 64279, a move above could see prices testing 64697.
Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 62507-64697.
Silver rose as investors worried about escalating geopolitical tensions involving the West, Russia, and Ukraine.
Minutes of the latest policy meeting signalling a less hawkish-than-feared Fed supported prices.
The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly rose last week


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -2.75% at 6727 as investors weigh prospects of new crude supplies from Iran against renewed geopolitical tensions in Ukraine that raised concerns of supply disruptions in major oil producer Russia. Iran is close to accepting a deal on its nuclear programme, which could mean the release of about 1.3 million barrels a day of crude supply, helping to ease a tight global market. Meanwhile, tensions between Russia and the West over Ukraine could escalate after Russian-backed rebels accused Ukrainian forces of shelling their territory. NATO accused Russia of increasing troops at the Ukrainian border, while Moscow claimed it had begun withdrawing some of its military units. U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose unexpectedly last week, even as inventories at the key Cushing hub dropped to their lowest level since 2018, the Energy Information Administration said. Fuel stocks fell and demand surpassed the previous week's record, with total product supplied over four weeks averaging 22.1 million barrels per day, according to the EIA. Crude inventories rose by 1.1 million barrels in the week to Feb. 11 to 411.5 million barrels. However, crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, storage hub fell by 1.9 million barrels to 25.8 million barrels, their lowest since September 2018. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -16.92% to settled at 5426 while prices down -190 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6654 and below same could see a test of 6582 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6845, a move above could see prices testing 6964.
Trading Ideas:
Crude oil trading range for the day is 6582-6964.
Crude oil dropped as investors weigh prospects of new crude supplies from Iran against renewed geopolitical tensions in Ukraine
U.S. crude stockpiles rise despite Cushing draw, record fuel demand – EIA
Crude inventories rose by 1.1 million barrels in the week to Feb. 11 to 411.5 million barrels.


Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -3.42% at 333 on a slightly smaller-than-expected storage draw last week and as production slowly recovered from cold weather-related reductions this month. The United States and Europe have said they would sanction Russia if it invaded Ukraine, likely prompting Russia to cut some gas exports to Europe. Russia provides around 30-40% of Europe's gas supplies, totaling about 16.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2021. Russian President Vladimir Putin has told Italy that Russia is ready to increase its gas supplies to the country if needed, the Russian ambassador to Italy Sergey Razov said. Putin has also invited Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi to visit Moscow, Razov said, adding that Russia appreciated what he called Italy's "moderate position" regarding the crisis over Ukraine. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states had fallen from a record 97.3 bcfd in December to 94.0 bcfd in January and 92.8 bcfd so far in February, as cold weather froze oil and gas wells in several producing regions. But on a daily basis, gas production has gained almost every day since dropping to 86.3 bcfd during a Feb. 4 winter storm, reaching a high of 95.2 bcfd on Feb. 11, the most since Jan. 1. Output was on track to hold at a preliminary 94.2 bcfd. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -36.31% to settled at 2740 while prices down -11.8 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 322.5 and below same could see a test of 312 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 351.7, a move above could see prices testing 370.4.
Trading Ideas:
Natural gas trading range for the day is 312-370.4.
Natural gas fell on a slightly smaller-than-expected storage draw last week and as production slowly recovered.
The United States and Europe have said they would sanction Russia if it invaded Ukraine, likely prompting Russia to cut some gas exports to Europe.
Russia provides around 30-40% of Europe's gas supplies, totaling about 16.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2021.




Copper yesterday settled down by -0.38% at 766.45 with wider markets in cautious mood as reports of artillery fire in east Ukraine heightened fears of conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Data showed China's factory-gate inflation and consumer price growth softened, potentially leaving more room for the People's Bank of China to ease policy to support the economy. Demand in China has during Chinese New Year and the Olympics, when some industrial output has been restricted. Copper reached a record high of $10,747.50 a tonne in May but has since bumbled along between around $9,000 and $10,000 as the economy of China, the largest metals consumer, slowed. Russian-backed rebels and Ukrainian forces traded accusations that each had fired across the ceasefire line in eastern Ukraine, raising alarm at a time when Western countries have warned of the possibility of a Russian invasion any day. Yangshan copper import premiums fell to $38 a tonne from $140 in October last year and stockpiles in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses have risen to 106,572 tonnes from 40,359 tonnes in late January. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -15.91% to settled at 2770 while prices down -2.9 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 760.7 and below same could see a test of 755 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 771, a move above could see prices testing 775.6.
Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 755-775.6.
Copper fell with wider markets in cautious mood as reports of artillery fire in east Ukraine heightened fears of conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Data showed China's factory-gate inflation and consumer price growth softened.
Demand in China has during Chinese New Year and the Olympics, when some industrial output has been restricted.


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.64% at 299.4 as China's refined zinc production from 51 smelters stood at 444,000 tonnes in January, down by 12,000 tonnes from December and down 8.2% year-on-year, attributing the drop to holidays as well as the Beijing Winter Olympics. February zinc output is expected to slip to some 430,000 tonnes as holidays continue, while there could be disruptions from the pandemic situation in some areas, it said. The energy prices in Europe has been volatile amid uncertainties haunting the Russia-Ukraine issue, while the smelters in Europe will be highly impacted. On the other hand, the inflation caused by high energy prices in Europe has lifted the production costs, depressing downstream production. Data showed that China's refined zinc output increased by 76,000 mt to 529,000 mt, with a large increase of 32,100 mt compared with last year. Due to the increase of working days in March, the output affected by the number of days rose to 29,100 mt. And the resumption of production from previous holiday shutdown or maintenance. Compared with last year, the main reasons were as follows: Firstly, in the same period last year, there was a double control effect of energy consumption in Inner Mongolia. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -13.56% to settled at 1167 while prices up 1.9 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 296.9 and below same could see a test of 294.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 300.8, a move above could see prices testing 302.2.
Trading Ideas:
Zinc trading range for the day is 294.4-302.2.
Zinc gained as China's refined zinc production from 51 smelters stood at 444,000 tonnes down 8.2% year-on-year
February zinc output is expected to slip to some 430,000 tonnes
The energy prices in Europe has been volatile amid uncertainties haunting the Russia-Ukraine issue


Nickel
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Nickel yesterday settled up by 1.42% at 1805.9 as the social inventory of refined nickel and the inventory in the bonded areas both showed sharp declines. The social inventory fell by 3,208 mt month-on-month to a two-year low of 7,856 mt as downstream buyers stocked up for the CNY holiday. The inventory in the bonded areas declined 2,200 mt MoM to 8,100 mt. Nickel prices rose sharply amid robust stocking demand. Imported nickel flowed into the domestic market after the import window opened, hence the inventory in the bonded areas decreased. The social inventory increased 2,750 mt from the end of January to 10,606 mt as of February 11 as the inventory accumulated during the CNY holiday. However, the increase was in line with expectations and was relatively small. Geopolitical tensions will give rise to market expectations of inflation and rising demand for industrial goods, a bullish factor for non-ferrous products. While nickel exports from Russia will also be affected by the potential sanctions from the US on Russia. US retail sales rose rapidly in January by 3.8%, the greatest increase in nearly 10 months, amounting more leads for US rate hike. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 8.38% to settled at 2510 while prices up 25.3 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1778.9 and below same could see a test of 1752 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1823.8, a move above could see prices testing 1841.8.
Trading Ideas:
Nickel trading range for the day is 1752-1841.8.
Nickel prices rose as China nickel inventory continued to decline
Nickel exports from Russia will also be affected by the potential sanctions from the US on Russia.
Geopolitical tensions will give rise to market expectations of inflation and rising demand for industrial goods, a bullish factor for non-ferrous products.


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.81% at 261.55 as geopolitical risks and concerns over future supplies continued to drive the metal higher. After fading temporarily amid Russia’s announcement that it was pulling back some military district units from near the border with Ukraine, war jitters returned when NATO said satellite imagery easily disproved the Russian claims and warned the Kremlin continued to mass troops near Ukraine. At the same time, elevated energy costs have caused shutdowns at aluminum smelters in Europe and China, triggering a rush to LME’s physical stocks of the metal, which currently stood at half of March 2021 levels. In China, the pandemic and pollution curbs amid the winter Olympics have also been forcing producers to halt production. The U.S. central bank is facing increasing pressure to take a stronger stand against inflation following an unexpectedly large jump in U.S. consumer prices in January. New aluminium arrivals in LME warehouses sent on-warrant stockpiles soaring by 42% to 595,150 tonnes, data showed on Thursday, easing worries about supply. New bank lending in China more than tripled in January from the previous month, beating forecasts and hitting a record high, as the central bank seeks to shore up slowing growth in the world's second-largest economy. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -16.54% to settled at 1811 while prices up 2.1 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 259.2 and below same could see a test of 256.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 263.1, a move above could see prices testing 264.5.
Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 256.7-264.5.
Aluminium rose as tensions eased over Ukraine and focus shifted to an energy crunch causing smelter shutdowns.
The risk of supply disruptions triggered a rush to aluminum stocks at LME warehouses, which currently sit at roughly 50% of March 2021 levels.Baise city in the aluminium producing region of Guangxi in China lifted lockdowns imposed last week


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.45% at 952.1 as sentiments dropped among the trader with the third wave of corona virus is spreading five times faster. There is an explosive situation of infection in seven states of the country. Due to the rapid spread of Omicron, this curiosity arises in the mind whether there will be a lock down in the country. Overall 2022 Q1 prices are expected to see good support as the Indian pharma industry has shown a double digit growth of around 15% led by growth of Covid-19 products in the last one year as against a single digit growth of 3% shown last year, according to Indian pharmaceutical market research company Pharmasofttech AWACS Pvt. Ltd in its latest report. Also as per the latest news going viral in market is that Mandi Tax has been exempted for exports and the orders have been sent to all Mandi Sectt offices district wise, while trader are waiting for complete information on same. Due to lackluster price move since last 2 year with poor export performance this year's sowing can see much impact resulting surge in prices. Also the FMCG makers also expect that a sudden increase in COVID cases and some restrictions imposed by local authorities in some states would again impact the demand for out of home' channels products, which was recovering from the last few months, though demand for home consumption and immunity products is going to gain for few weeks. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 15.4 Rupees to end at 1108.6 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.69% to settled at 835 while prices down -4.3 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 949.3 and below same could see a test of 946.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 956, a move above could see prices testing 959.8.
Trading Ideas:
Mentha oil trading range for the day is 946.4-959.8.
In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 15.4 Rupees to end at 1108.6 Rupees per 360 kgs.
Mentha oil prices dropped as sentiments dropped with the third wave of corona virus is spreading faster.
Overall 2022 Q1 prices are expected to see good support as the Indian pharma industry has shown a double digit growth of around 15%.
Due to lackluster price move since last 2 year with poor export performance this year's sowing can see much impact resulting surge in prices.


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.27% at 9798 as turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones. The arrival of the new crop has started in the markets of Telangana and Maharashtra. In the first 7 months (April-October) of the financial year 2021-22, exports declined by 23% to 89,850 tonnes over the previous year, but higher by 6.5% over the 5-year average. For the past three years, traders were offering lower price for turmeric due to lack of demand. The farmers, who incurred losses during this period due to low price, are hoping to get good price this year, so that they could clear their dues to some extent. The market sentiment is buoyant mainly since the ending stocks are expected to be 17-18 lakh bags (50 kg each) this year against 25 lakh bags last year. Spices Board data showed turmeric production this year being projected at 11.01 lakh tonnes against 11.78 lakh tonnes last year, mainly on the output being affected in Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Haryana. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 9244.45 Rupees gained 12.85 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.54% to settled at 11875 while prices up 26 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 9734 and below same could see a test of 9670 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 9880, a move above could see prices testing 9962.
Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 9670-9962.
Turmeric gained as turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones.
The arrival of the new crop has started in the markets of Telangana and Maharashtra.
In the first 7 months (April-October) of the financial year 2021-22, exports declined by 23% to 89,850 tonnes over the previous year.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 9244.45 Rupees gained 12.85 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 2.54% at 21590 as there were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand. In 2021-22, the area under cumin in Gujarat is only 3.07 lakh hectares as against 4.69 lakh hectares in the same period last year and production is expected to decline by 41% to 2.37 lakh tonnes as compared to last year's 4 lakh tonnes as per second advance estimates. In Rajasthan too, there has been a decline of about 30% in the area. However export demand will still under pressure due to tariff cost and ahead of arrival despite the news that China export started again. According to government data, cumin exports declined by 24% year-on-year to 1.74 lakh tonnes in April-December from 2.30 lakh tonnes in the previous year. The export of cumin seeds declined by 20% year-on-year to 1.61 lakh tonnes in April-November, from 2.02 lakh tonnes in the previous year. There is a possibility of damage to the cumin crop due to rain and cloudy sky. The production in Syria had fallen by roughly 25-30 percent in 2021, versus the previous year because of political instability. The cropped area has fallen due to a shift towards other crops like cotton, soybean and mustard, which offered lucrative returns last year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 127.75 Rupees to end at 20557.15 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.79% to settled at 11211 while prices up 535 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 21215 and below same could see a test of 20840 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21820, a move above could see prices testing 22050.
Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 20840-22050.
Jeera gained as there were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand.
In 2021-22, the area under cumin in Gujarat is only 3.07 lakh hectares as against 4.69 lakh hectares in the same period last year.
In Rajasthan too, there has been a decline of about 30% in the area.
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 127.75 Rupees to end at 20557.15 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.32% at 37550 as production of Cotton is estimated at 34.06 million bales (each of 170 kg) is higher by 1.12 million bales than the average cotton production of 32.95 million bales, as per 2nd Advance Estimates for 2021-22. There were reports U.S. cotton plantings are expected to climb amid strong foreign demand, higher input costs for farmers and prolonged drought in Texas, the crop’s top growing state. U.S. farmers are projected to sow 12 million acres for the season beginning Aug. 1, up about 7.3% from the previous year, according to the National Cotton Council’s planting-intentions survey showed. Global cotton consumption is expected to rise 2.8% this year, according to data from the United States Department of Agriculture. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised the estimate for U.S. stocks at the end of its 2021/22 crop year and projected a decline in the country's exports in its monthly supply-demand report. In its February World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, the USDA raised U.S. ending stocks estimates by 300,000 bales to 3.50 million bales, while U.S. production estimates were unchanged at 17.62 million bales. However low cotton yield this season due to excessive rain and pink bollworm attack has resulted in the crop selling at over 60 per cent higher than the MSP. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -180 Rupees to end at 37720 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -11.58% to settled at 4923 while prices down -120 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 37410 and below same could see a test of 37260 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 37800, a move above could see prices testing 38040.
Trading Ideas:
Cotton trading range for the day is 37260-38040.
Cotton dropped as production of Cotton is estimated at 34.06 mln bales is higher by 1.12 mln bales than the average cotton production of 32.95 mln bales.
However downside seen limited amid low cotton yield this season due to excessive rain and pink bollworm attack
U.S. cotton plantings are expected to climb amid strong foreign demand, higher input costs for farmers and prolonged drought in Texas
In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -180 Rupees to end at 37720 Rupees.

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