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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.34% at 52071 amid a pullback in the U.S. dollar and the Treasury yields. While geopolitical risks generated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and rising inflation offered support, the Federal Reserve's increasingly hawkish stance dented the precious metal's appeal. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that the central bank remained "behind the curve" on interest rates and preferred to raise the federal funds rate by another 3 percentage points by the end of the year. Discounts on physical gold in India widened as scrap supplies increased amid only a slight improvement in demand, while purchases in top consumer China were steady despite COVID-19 lockdowns as buyers sought safe-haven assets. Dealers offered a discount of up to $40 an ounce over official domestic prices – inclusive of the 10.75% import and 3% sales levies, up from last week's discount of $35. In China, gold prices ranged from a $3 discount to a $2 premium, compared with a discount of $2 to $6 an ounce on global benchmark spot rates in the previous week. Russia produced 19.62 tonnes of gold in January 2022, up from 18.92 tonnes in the same month last year, the finance ministry said. Investors are pricing in the Fed to raise interest rate to a target range of between 2.5 percent and 2.75 percent by the end of the year. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.03% to settled at 18210 while prices up 174 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 51769 and below same could see a test of 51467 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 52285, a move above could see prices testing 52499.
Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 51467-52499.
Gold remained supported amid a pullback in the U.S. dollar and the Treasury yields.
Support also seen amid geopolitical risks generated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and rising inflation
India sees discounts of up to $40/oz, compared to $35 last week

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.34% at 66992 amid expectations of further sanctions following alleged war crimes by Russian troops in Ukraine. The latest Federal Reserve minutes showed that officials planned to reduce the central bank’s massive balance sheet by about $95 billion a month, and indicated that one or more 50 basis point interest rate hikes could be warranted to combat surging inflation. The central bank’s hawkish stance lifted the dollar and Treasury yields to multi-year highs, pressuring gold prices. Meanwhile, investors are closely monitoring sanctions against Russian energy after the EU banned coal imports from Russia, while preparing an embargo on Russian oil, gas and nuclear fuel. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that the central bank remained "behind the curve" on interest rates and preferred to raise the federal funds rate by another 3 percentage points by the end of the year. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and his Atlanta counterpart Raphael Bostic said that it is appropriate to raise rates to neutral but in a measured manner. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, investors are pricing in the Fed to raise interest rate to a target range of between 2.5 percent and 2.75 percent by the end of the year. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.84% to settled at 6727 while prices up 227 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 66548 and below same could see a test of 66105 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 67257, a move above could see prices testing 67523.
Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 66105-67523.
Silver remained supported amid expectations of further sanctions following alleged war crimes by Russian troops in Ukraine.
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that the central bank remained "behind the curve" on interest rates
Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and his Atlanta counterpart Raphael Bostic said that it is appropriate to raise rates to neutral but in a measured manner.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 1.37% at 7378 after update that global oil demand is rising, Russia's deputy prime minister Alexander Novak said, adding that Moscow does not see any significant problems on the oil market. However, prices ended with losses on weekly basis amid plans for a massive reserve release and demand concerns in top importer China. IEA member states agreed this week to tap 60 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves, on top of a 180 million barrel release announced by the US last week, aimed at cooling energy prices. Meanwhile, since March, China has been battling its biggest Covid wave yet with Shanghai now being the largest hotspot and all 25 million residents under lockdown. Investors are also closely monitoring sanctions against Russian energy after the EU banned coal imports from Russia while preparing an embargo on oil, gas, and nuclear fuel. Russia's production of oil and gas condensate fell to 10.52 million bpd on April 1-6 from a March average of 11.01 million bpd. U.S. crude in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) fell by 3.7 million barrels last week to 564.6 million barrels, its lowest since April 2002, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its weekly Petroleum Status Report. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -37.9% to settled at 4267 while prices up 100 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7272 and below same could see a test of 7167 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7456, a move above could see prices testing 7535.
Trading Ideas:
Crude oil trading range for the day is 7167-7535.
Crude oil seen supported after update that Russia's Novak says global oil demand is rising.
However, prices ended with losses on weekly basis amid plans for a massive reserve release and demand concerns in top importer China.
IEA member states agreed this week to tap 60 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 0.52% at 479.2 as much higher global prices since Russia's invasion of Ukraine keep demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports near record highs. Prices also climbed on growing worries that cooler weather expected in coming weeks will keep heating demand high and prevent utilities from adding much gas to storage during that time. U.S. gas stockpiles were already about 17% below the five-year (2017-2021) average for this time of year. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 94.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April from 93.7 bcfd in March. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would drop from 99.4 bcfd this week to 95.0 bcfd next week as the weather turns seasonally milder before rising to 95.9 bcfd in two weeks with a brief cool down. The forecasts for this week and next were higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Thursday. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants slid from a record 12.9 bcfd in March to 12.4 bcfd so far in April due to declines at the Corpus Christi and Freeport facilities in Texas. The United States can turn about 13.2 bcfd of gas into LNG. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.11% to settled at 9747 while prices up 2.5 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 471.2 and below same could see a test of 463.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 491.6, a move above could see prices testing 503.9.
Trading Ideas:
Natural gas trading range for the day is 463.1-503.9.
Natural gas rose as much higher global prices since Russia's invasion of Ukraine keep demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports near record highs.
Prices also climbed on growing worries that cooler weather expected in coming weeks will keep heating demand high
U.S. gas stockpiles were already about 17% below the five-year (2017-2021) average for this time of year.


Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.34% at 819.8 as China will step up policy measures in timely way to support the economy that faces greater uncertainties and challenges, state media quoted Premier Li Keqiang as saying. Authorities will also study new contingency plans, Li was quoted as saying. China will keep its yuan currency basically stable, Li added. In China, in-plant inventory of downstream processing companies in Zhejiang and Jiangsu has been falling, and had to purchase from smelters in surrounding areas and delivery warehouses in order to maintain production. In addition, spot premiums surged amid rising demand and booming transport cost, and some was as high as 500 yuan/mt, a complete opposite to the freezing Shanghai market. Chile, the world's top copper producer, saw exports of the red metal reach $4.95 billion in March, the Andean country's central bank said. The country posted a trade surplus of $1.26 billion in the month as exports jumped 22% from a year earlier to $9.48 billion. China copper inventory in the bonded zone added 2,100 mt from last Friday April 1 to 306,500 mt as of April 8. Among them, the inventory in Shanghai bonded zone stood unchanged at 269,800 mt, while that in Guangdong bonded zone rose 2,100 mt on a weekly basis to 36,700 mt. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.57% to settled at 3570 while prices up 2.8 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 816.9 and below same could see a test of 814 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 823.2, a move above could see prices testing 826.6.
Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 814-826.6.
Copper prices remained supported as China will step up policy support for the economy
Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 3.7 percent from last Friday, the exchange said.
Chile, saw exports of the red metal reach $4.95 billion in March

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 2.85% at 359.1 as domestic refined zinc output totalled 501,300 mt in March, and is estimated at 503,600 mt in April due to maintenance of some smelters. The output in the first three months of 2022 fell 2.19% YoY. The social inventory across seven markets in China stood at 278,000 mt, largely flat from Wednesday as some sources have been exported. Total zinc ingots inventories across seven major markets in China stood at 278,000 mt as of April 8, up 5,200 mt from April 1, down 300 mt from March 6. Domestic inventories increased. Overall, the market inventory remained unchanged under the impact of the pandemic. In Shanghai market, there were no shipments from warehouses due to the pandemic prevention and control measures but only a small number of arrivals in some warehouses. China will step up policy measures in timely way to support the economy while studying new stimulus plans, state media quoted Premier Li Keqiang as saying. China's worst COVID-19 wave since the Wuhan outbreak, the escalating Ukraine crisis and a sharp downturn in the domestic property sector are roiling the country's financial markets. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 21.43% to settled at 1666 while prices up 9.95 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 352.2 and below same could see a test of 345.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 363, a move above could see prices testing 366.8.
Trading Ideas:
Zinc trading range for the day is 345.2-366.8.
Zinc prices rose as domestic refined zinc output totalled 501,300 mt in March, due to maintenance of some smelters.
Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.2 percent from last Friday, the exchange said.
Total zinc ingots inventories across seven major markets in China stood at 278,000 mt as of April 8, up 5,200 mt from April 1, down 300 mt from March 6.

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled flat at 2464.3 on profit booking after seen supported as the nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports dipped 230,000 wmt from a week earlier to 5.887 million wmt. Pressure seen on disappointing China manufacturing PMI which stood at 48.83, down 4.62% YoY, and the climate index was greatly impacted by the pandemic. On the supply side, the pandemic has brought transportation problems, and the supply of Jinchuan nickel in Shanghai is relatively tight. As the price difference between SHFE and LME nickel remains great, and the supply of Sumitomo, NORNICKEL, NIKKELVERK nickel and nickel briquette is still tight. In terms of nickel pig iron, the production and transportation problems of NPI plants in Liaoning and Inner Mongolia have been seriously affected, and the output is expected to fall in March. On the demand side, the cost efficiency of self-dissolved nickel briquette in the nickel sulphate plant has not recovered amid high futures prices. In addition, the output of the downstream precursor plants and the ternary cathode material plants did not contract in March thanks to their in-plant stocks, but the inventory in April will be low, hence there is possibility of production cuts. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed remain unchanged in open interest by 0% to settled at 172 while prices remain unchanged 0 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1642.8 and below same could see a test of 821.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1642.8, a move above could see prices testing 821.4.
Trading Ideas:
Nickel trading range for the day is 821.4-821.4.
Nickel dropped on profit booking after seen supported as the nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports dipped 230,000 wmt from a week earlier to 5.887 million wmt.
Sumitomo Metal sees global nickel demand for battery use at 410,000 in 2022
Nickel briquette prices stood above 200,000 yuan/mt, and demand from nickel sulphate plants may contract.

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.02% at 276.7 on worries that fresh lockdowns in China and a higher interest rate environment could dent growth and demand in the metals market. Also weighing on metals, the dollar extended a squeeze higher, reaching a near two-year peak, supported by the prospect of a more aggressive pace of interest rates hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The premium for aluminium shipments to Japanese buyers for April to June was set at $172 a tonne, down 2.8% from the previous quarter, as weak demand in Japan and China outweighed concerns of supply disruptions from Russia. China aluminium social inventory totaled 1.07 million mt as of Thursday April 7, up 25,000 mt on week. The inventory in Wuxi rose the most by 36,000 mt on a weekly basis as the local transportation was severely affected by the pandemic, and the warehouses could not ship normally; in terms of arrivals, the railway transportation has been regular, and truck drivers with traffic permit and negative nucleic acid testing report within 48 hours are allowed to enter the city. The inventories in Tianjin, Chongqing and Linyi were flat, and those in Shanghai, Nanhai and Hnagzhou falling to different degrees, with Nanhai (-7,000 mt) falling the greatest. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.25% to settled at 2504 while prices up 0.05 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 274.7 and below same could see a test of 272.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 279.7, a move above could see prices testing 282.6.
Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 272.6-282.6.
Aluminium settled flat on worries that fresh lockdowns in China and a higher interest rate environment could dent growth and demand in the metals market.
Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.5 percent from last Friday, the exchange said.
The premium for aluminium shipments to Japanese buyers for April to June was set at $172 a tonne, down 2.8% from the previous quarter.

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.61% at 1136.5 on reports that due to poor prices farmers has shifted to other crops resulting lower production. Germany's BASF said it would have to stop production if natural gas supplies fell to less than half its needs, as the world's largest chemicals group warned of the damage to its operations from Europe's power crunch. Mentha farming has lost its allure in Uttar Pradesh as farmers struggle without stable price, MSP and government support. High input costs and lack of support price have drastically brought down the return of farmers who have already been struggling to increase their incomes. Prices gains amid loss in production and improvement in demand while monsoon is yet to be seen as last year heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season came like a disaster for farmer. Last year the unseasonal heavy rainfall in May destroyed the ready to be harvested mentha crop. The month, as per the IMD, was the second wettest May in the past 121 years. Maharashtra and West Bengal lifts all its Covid curbs which will help Mentha oil and its derivatives to gains its demand as they are extensively used in food, pharmaceutical, perfumery, and flavouring industry. FMCG industry reels under extraordinary inflationary pressures, experts believe it will continue to grow in both volume and value, but margins will get squeezed. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 9.1 Rupees to end at 1244.8 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.6% to settled at 951 while prices up 6.9 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1125 and below same could see a test of 1113.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1147.9, a move above could see prices testing 1159.4.
Trading Ideas:
Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1113.6-1159.4.
In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 9.1 Rupees to end at 1244.8 Rupees per 360 kgs.
Mentha oil prices gained on reports that due to poor prices farmers has shifted to other crops resulting lower production
Germany's BASF, says it may halt production at world’s biggest chemicals plant in Ludwigshafen if gas supply is halved under Germany's emergency plan.
Maharashtra and West Bengal lifts all its Covid curbs which will help Mentha to gains its demand

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -3.9% at 9550 as new season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season. In the first 9 months (April-December) of FY 2021-22, exports declined by 20.7% over the previous year to 1,16,400 tonnes, but 8.8% higher than the 5-year average. The arrival of the new crop has started in the markets of Telangana and Maharashtra. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones. The farmers, who incurred losses during this period due to low price, are hoping to get good price this year, so that they could clear their dues to some extent. The market sentiment is buoyant mainly since the ending stocks are expected to be 17-18 lakh bags (50 kg each) this year against 25 lakh bags last year. Spices Board data showed turmeric production this year being projected at 11.01 lakh tonnes against 11.78 lakh tonnes last year, mainly on the output being affected in Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Haryana. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 9161.1 Rupees dropped -41.55 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.31% to settled at 14825 while prices down -388 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 9340 and below same could see a test of 9132 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 9878, a move above could see prices testing 10208.
Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 9132-10208.
Turmeric dropped as new season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season.
Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations.
Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 9161.1 Rupees dropped -41.55 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -1.64% at 22555 as new crop arrivals started coming with moisture content 8% to 10%. The export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.44 lakh tonnes in the previous year. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. There were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand. In 2021-22, the area under cumin in Gujarat is only 3.07 lakh hectares as compared to 4.69 lakh hectares in the same period last year and production is expected to decline by 41% to 2.37 lakh tonnes as compared to last year's 4 lakh tonnes as per second advance estimates. The area under jeera has decreased by about 30% in Rajasthan this year, to 5.39 lakh hectares (lh) from 7.7 lh last year, Spices Board officials confirmed. According to the data released by the commerce department, cumin exports in January 2022 increased by 19% to 14,725 tonnes as compared to 12,385 tonnes in December 2021. Carry-forward stocks would be approximately 25 lakh bags. Last year's jeera crop was 93 lakh bags, with a carryover stock of 20 lakh bags. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -1.6 Rupees to end at 22227.8 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7% to settled at 13485 while prices down -375 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 22410 and below same could see a test of 22260 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 22805, a move above could see prices testing 23050.
Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 22260-23050.
Jeera dropped as new crop arrivals started coming with moisture content 8% to 10%
The export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.44 lakh tonnes in the previous year
There were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand.
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -1.6 Rupees to end at 22227.8 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.76% at 43250 on profit booking tracking weakness in overseas prices hurt by a weak export sales report. The USDA's weekly export sales report showed net sales of 62,900 running bales of cotton for 2021/2022 -- a marketing-year low -- were down 73% from the previous week and 80% from the prior 4-week average. The arrival of cotton in the country is continuously declining, at present the daily arrivals are 65 to 75 lakh bales which will further decrease in the coming week. At the moment, there are very few ginning mills running in the country, the stock of best quality cotton is very low at the moment, similarly the stock of Binola is also low. The price of cotton yarn is continuously increasing, but there is no major demand in the domestic market and export market, due to which the Spinners' Mills Association has cut production, due to which cotton industries will benefit in the long run. Spinning mills are buying cotton at higher prices as the balance sheet of cotton is becoming tighter continuously. USDA's planting intentions report showed U.S. cotton acreage at 12.234 million acres for the 2022/2023 marketing year versus 12.007 million acres forecasted. The USDA also released weekly export sales data which showed net sales of 234,000 running bales of cotton for 2021/2022, down 24% from the previous week. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -70 Rupees to end at 44040 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.76% to settled at 5029 while prices down -330 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 42990 and below same could see a test of 42720 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 43550, a move above could see prices testing 43840.
Trading Ideas:
Cotton trading range for the day is 42720-43840.
Cotton dropped on profit booking tracking weakness in overseas prices hurt by a weak export sales report.
The USDA's weekly export sales report showed net sales of 62,900 running bales of cotton for 2021/2022 were down 73% from the previous week.
The arrival of cotton in the country is continuously declining, at present the daily arrivals are 65 to 75 lakh bales which will further decrease in the coming week.
In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -70 Rupees to end at 44040 Rupees.

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