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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 1.34% at 52878 after the latest US inflation report showed prices paid by Americans surged 8.5% yoy in March, the most since 1981 and above market expectations. Support also seen after core CPI figures came below forecasts, increasing expectations the inflation peak has been reached. Still, the greenback remains close to levels not seen in 2 years as the inflation will probably not recede to the central bank’s 2% target anytime soon and the Fed is seen tightening monetary policy more aggressively. Minutes from the last FOMC meeting showed a more hawkish Fed and signalled a 50bps rate hike next month and a reduction in the central bank massive balance sheet by about $95 billion a month. Inflation will remain high this year and next even as the Fed moves steadily to lower the pace of price increases, Cleveland Fed president Loretta Mester said. By making home, auto and other loans more expensive, Fed interest rate increases and other actions "will help reduce excess demand, which is outpacing constrained supply, and bring price pressures down," to the Fed's 2% inflation target, Mester said. "I think it will take some time. ... Inflation will remain above 2% this year and even next year. But the trajectory will be moving down." Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.45% to settled at 18534 while prices up 699 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 52502 and below same could see a test of 52126 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 53127, a move above could see prices testing 53376.
Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 52126-53376.
Gold rose after the latest US inflation report showed prices paid by Americans surged 8.5% yoy in March, the most since 1981
Support also seen after core CPI figures came below forecasts, increasing expectations the inflation peak has been reached.
Still, the greenback remains close to levels not seen in 2 years as the inflation will probably not recede to the central bank’s 2% target anytime soon


Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 2.22% at 68790 as inflation concerns more than offset expectations of higher Federal Reserve interest rate hikes and higher Treasury yields. The latest US CPI report showed inflation hit 8.5% in March, the highest since December of 1981. The report also showed core CPI rose 6.5% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month, both below expectations, indicating that inflation could be peaking. Investors are betting the Federal Reserve will deliver a 50bps hike in May to tame decades-high inflation amid a falling unemployment rate and accelerating wage growth. Meanwhile, investors tracked geopolitical developments after reports that Russia has used chemical weapons to attack the besieged Ukrainian city of Mariupol. Investors also looked ahead to the ECB meeting after minutes from the March meeting turned out to be hawkish. German consumer price index rose 7.3 percent year-on-year, after a 5.1 percent increase in February, final data from Destatis showed. This was the biggest rate since German reunification and also matched the preliminary estimate published on March 30. The US yield on the 10-year note, which sets the tone for corporate and household borrowing costs worldwide, bottomed around 2.71%, a dramatic reversal from an over three-year high of 2.83% hit earlier this session. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 21.99% to settled at 7477 while prices up 1496 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 67918 and below same could see a test of 67046 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 69327, a move above could see prices testing 69864.
Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 67046-69864.
Silver extended gains as inflation concerns more than offset expectations of higher Federal Reserve interest rate hikes and higher Treasury yields.
The latest US CPI report showed inflation hit 8.5% in March, the highest since December of 1981.
The report showed core CPI rose 6.5% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month, both below expectations, indicating that inflation could be peaking.


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 6.52% at 7644 as the market weighed the potential for more sanctions on Russia's energy sector and OPEC warned it would be impossible to increase output enough to offset lost supply. The European Union is drafting proposals for an EU oil embargo on Russia in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine, some foreign ministers said. However, there is currently no agreement among members on crude from Russia, which calls its actions in Ukraine a "special operation". Rise in oil markets also followed a warning from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) that some 7 million barrels per day of Russian oil and other liquids exports could be lost due to sanctions or voluntary actions, and that it would be impossible to replace those volumes. IEA member nations are planning to release some 240 million barrels over the next six months in a bid to calm volatile oil markets, of which 180 million will be released from U.S. stockpiles at a rate of 1 million bpd starting in May. China's imports of crude oil rebounded in March, but aren't likely to grow much more for a while - fuel demand is wilting amid COVID-19 lockdowns and high prices. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -15.57% to settled at 4567 while prices up 468 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7341 and below same could see a test of 7038 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7884, a move above could see prices testing 8124.
Trading Ideas:
Crude oil trading range for the day is 7038-8124.
Crude oil rose as the market weighed the potential for more sanctions on Russia's energy sector
OPEC warned it would be impossible to increase output enough to offset lost supply.
OPEC Secretary-General Barkindo to EU: It's impossible to fully replace Russia exports


Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 0.56% at 504.5 with a sharp drop in U.S. output and on expectations freezing weather in Alberta, Canada will move into the United States next week and boost heating demand. European Union countries agreed to ban coal imports from Russia while pledged to start working on an embargo on Russian oil, gas and nuclear fuel, putting additional pressure on energy markets. Shipments of LNG to Europe are already at record levels, and the US is facing significant pressure to help the continent secure further supplies. Supporting prices further were inventory data showing a more-than-anticipated draw of 33 bcf last week to a nearly 3-year low and at around 17% below their five-year average. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 94.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April from 93.7 bcfd in March. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would drop from 99.4 bcfd this week to 95.0 bcfd next week as the weather turns seasonally milder before rising to 95.9 bcfd in two weeks with a brief cool down. The forecasts for this week and next were higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Thursday. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -15.26% to settled at 10064 while prices up 2.8 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 494.8 and below same could see a test of 485.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 521.2, a move above could see prices testing 537.9.
Trading Ideas:
Natural gas trading range for the day is 485.1-537.9.
Natural gas gained with a sharp drop in U.S. output and on expectations freezing weather.
European Union countries agreed to ban coal imports from Russia while pledged to start working on an embargo on Russian oil, gas and nuclear fuel
Shipments of LNG to Europe are already at record levels, and the US is facing significant pressure to help the continent secure further supplies.



Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 1.43% at 819.55 amid a tight market as investors weigh lower supply from top producer Chile, disruptions caused by the war in Ukraine, and assess the impact of the latest Covid outbreak in China in both demand and supply. Copper output in Chile, the world's largest producer, fell 7% from a year earlier to 394,700 tonnes in February, following a 7.5% fall in January and a 1.9% decline in 2021 production. Meanwhile, Chinese authorities extended a lockdown in Shanghai, an industrial powerhouse and major port, further threatening global supply chains. Logistics operators report that restrictions are already making it harder to move goods around and keep factories operating at full capacity. Elsewhere, Peru's ministry of economy and finance said that the world’s second-largest copper supplier will target the excess profits that mining companies earned from rising metal prices around the world. China's copper cathode output in March edged up by 0.3% from February despite maintenance at some smelters. Production at 22 smelters, accounting for 83% of China's total capacity, was at 788,200 tonnes in March, up from a revised 785,900 tonnes in February but down 0.45% year on year. Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 3.7 percent from last Friday, the exchange said. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -15.12% to settled at 3446 while prices up 11.55 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 812.5 and below same could see a test of 805.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 824.5, a move above could see prices testing 829.3.
Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 805.3-829.3.
Copper gains amid a tight market as investors weigh lower supply from top producer Chile, disruptions caused by the war in Ukraine
China's copper cathode output in March edged up by 0.3% from February despite maintenance at some smelters.
Copper output in Chile, fell 7% from a year earlier to 394,700 tonnes in February, following a 7.5% fall in January


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 3.16% at 370.15 as China's refined zinc output fell on both an annual and monthly basis in March as the COVID-19 outbreak disrupted transportation of raw materials. The 52 Chinese zinc smelters, made 423,000 tonnes of the metal last month, down 0.7% year on year and 15,000 tonnes lower than revised output of 437,000 tonnes in February, it said in a statement. Daily zinc production plunged 12.7% in March from a month earlier. The lower than expected output – mainly in the Yunnan, Shaanxi and Gansu provinces – came as a resurgence of COVID-19 infections disrupted transportation of materials, adding that production will continue to be affected in the short term. On the macro front, China's March financial data exceeded market expectations. China's social financing increased by 4.65 trillion yuan in March, 1.28 trillion yuan more than a year earlier; the cumulative increase in social financing scale in the first quarter was 12.06 trillion yuan, a record high for a single quarter and 1.77 trillion yuan more than a year earlier; growth of M2 money supply accelerated to 9.7% year-on-year in March, while M1 growth was flat at 4.7%; net cash injection in the first quarter was 431.7 billion yuan. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 28.9% to settled at 1802 while prices up 11.35 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 362.5 and below same could see a test of 354.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 374.7, a move above could see prices testing 379.2.
Trading Ideas:
Zinc trading range for the day is 354.8-379.2.
Zinc rose as China's refined zinc output fell on both an annual and monthly basis in March
Daily zinc production plunged 12.7% in March from a month earlier.
China's social financing increased by 4.65 trillion yuan in March, 1.28 trillion yuan more than a year earlier


Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled up by 0.86% at 2457.7 as a stronger dollar and demand worries due to continued COVID-19 lockdowns in China weighed on the metals. Pressure seen on disappointing China manufacturing PMI which stood at 48.83, down 4.62% YoY, and the climate index was greatly impacted by the pandemic. On the supply side, the pandemic has brought transportation problems, and the supply of Jinchuan nickel in Shanghai is relatively tight. As the price difference between SHFE and LME nickel remains great, and the supply of Sumitomo, NORNICKEL, NIKKELVERK nickel and nickel briquette is still tight. In terms of nickel pig iron, the production and transportation problems of NPI plants in Liaoning and Inner Mongolia have been seriously affected, and the output is expected to fall in March. On the demand side, the cost efficiency of self-dissolved nickel briquette in the nickel sulphate plant has not recovered amid high futures prices. In addition, the output of the downstream precursor plants and the ternary cathode material plants did not contract in March thanks to their in-plant stocks, but the inventory in April will be low, hence there is possibility of production cuts. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.4% to settled at 163 while prices up 20.9 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 2439.8 and below same could see a test of 2421.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 2472.8, a move above could see prices testing 2487.9.
Trading Ideas:
Nickel trading range for the day is 2421.9-2487.9.
Nickel gained as Sumitomo Metal sees global nickel demand for battery use at 410,000 in 2022
However upside seen limited amid demand worries due to continued COVID-19 lockdowns in China weighed on the metals.
Nickel briquette prices stood above 200,000 yuan/mt, and demand from nickel sulphate plants may contract.


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.67% at 269.5 as inventory of LME aluminium continued to fall last week after surging by 119,000 mt to 880,975 mt on February 10, with the latest stocks at 609,850 mt, down to a new low of more than 16 years. According to the data released by SHFE, inventory of SHFE aluminium increased slightly, which has dropped for three weeks. The weekly stocks have increased by 0.53% to 307,420 mt in the week of April 8, down to a low level in one and a half months. China produced 3.315 million mt of aluminium in March, down 0.92% on the year. The daily output averaged 106,900 mt, up 1,700 mt/day on the month, down 1000 mt on the year. The output totalled 9.465 million mt from January to March 2022, a decrease of 2.28% on the year. In March, the suspended production and new production capacity of domestic aluminium were put into operation at an accelerated rate, including 998,000 mt of new and resumed production capacity in Yunnan and Guangxi. In March, domestic aluminium enterprises did not reduce production. As of early April, Chinese aluminium operating capacity reached 39.974 million mt, and the installed capacity was 44.047 million mt, and the operating rates stood at 90.8%. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.58% to settled at 2619 while prices up 1.8 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 267.4 and below same could see a test of 265.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 270.9, a move above could see prices testing 272.2.
Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 265.2-272.2.
Aluminium prices gained as inventory of LME aluminium hit a new low of over 16 years
Inventory of SHFE aluminium increased slightly, which has dropped for three weeks.
China produced 3.315 million mt of aluminium in March, down 0.92% on the year.


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.62% at 1098.2 on profit booking after prices rose on reports that due to poor prices farmers has shifted to other crops resulting lower production. Germany's BASF said it would have to stop production if natural gas supplies fell to less than half its needs, as the world's largest chemicals group warned of the damage to its operations from Europe's power crunch. Mentha farming has lost its allure in Uttar Pradesh as farmers struggle without stable price, MSP and government support. High input costs and lack of support price have drastically brought down the return of farmers who have already been struggling to increase their incomes. Prices gains amid loss in production and improvement in demand while monsoon is yet to be seen as last year heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season came like a disaster for farmer. Last year the unseasonal heavy rainfall in May destroyed the ready to be harvested mentha crop. The month, as per the IMD, was the second wettest May in the past 121 years. Maharashtra and West Bengal lifts all its Covid curbs which will help Mentha oil and its derivatives to gains its demand as they are extensively used in food, pharmaceutical, perfumery, and flavouring industry. FMCG industry reels under extraordinary inflationary pressures, experts believe it will continue to grow in both volume and value, but margins will get squeezed. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -4.8 Rupees to end at 1216.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.97% to settled at 898 while prices down -6.9 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1089.5 and below same could see a test of 1080.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1107.3, a move above could see prices testing 1116.5.
Trading Ideas:
Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1080.9-1116.5.
In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -4.8 Rupees to end at 1216.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.
Mentha oil dropped on profit booking after prices rose on reports that due to poor prices farmers has shifted to other crops resulting lower production
Germany's BASF, says it may halt production at world’s biggest chemicals plant in Ludwigshafen if gas supply is halved under Germany's emergency plan.
Maharashtra and West Bengal lifts all its Covid curbs which will help Mentha to gains its demand


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.27% at 9462 as new season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season. As per first advance estimates by the Govt for 2021/22 season, the production of turmeric is pegged at 11.76 lakh tonnes in 2021-22 against 11.24 lt in 2020-21. As per govt data, turmeric exports in Jan 2022 is down by 25% m/m at 10,600 tonnes Vs 14275 tonnes in Dec 2021. In Feb, turmeric exports recorded lower by 17% on year at 10400 tonnes vs 12,575 tonnes while in FY 2021/22 (Apr-Feb), exports down 20% at 1.37 lakh tons compared to last year but higher by 8.3% compared with 5-year average. Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones. The farmers, who incurred losses during this period due to low price, are hoping to get good price this year, so that they could clear their dues to some extent. The market sentiment is buoyant mainly since the ending stocks are expected to be 17-18 lakh bags (50 kg each) this year against 25 lakh bags last year. Spices Board data showed turmeric production this year being projected at 11.01 lakh tonnes against 11.78 lakh tonnes last year, mainly on the output being affected in Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Haryana. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 9153.5 Rupees gained 17.8 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.5% to settled at 16990 while prices down -26 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 9392 and below same could see a test of 9322 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 9560, a move above could see prices testing 9658.
Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 9322-9658.
Turmeric dropped as new season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season.
As per first advance estimates, the production of turmeric is pegged at 11.76 lakh tonnes in 2021-22 against 11.24 lt in 2020-21.
In FY 2021/22 (Apr-Feb), exports down 20% at 1.37 lakh tons compared to last year but higher by 8.3% compared with 5-year average.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 9153.5 Rupees gained 17.8 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.67% at 22675 on lower crop estimates. As per the first advance estimates of Horticulture crops for 2021/22 government, the production of cumin seed is at 7.25 lakh tonnes in 2021-22 against 7.95 lakh tonnes in 2020-21. As per govt data, jeera exports in Feb 2022 up by 23.6% Y/Y at 14000 tonnes compared to 18300 tonnes while exports for FY 2021/22 (Apr-Feb) period down by 23% Y/Y at 2.02 lt compared to 2.62 lt last year. However, some pressure seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. There were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand. In 2021-22, the area under cumin in Gujarat is only 3.07 lakh hectares as compared to 4.69 lakh hectares in the same period last year and production is expected to decline by 41% to 2.37 lakh tonnes as compared to last year's 4 lakh tonnes as per second advance estimates. The area under jeera has decreased by about 30% in Rajasthan this year, to 5.39 lakh hectares (lh) from 7.7 lh last year, Spices Board officials confirmed. According to the data released by the commerce department, cumin exports in January 2022 increased by 19% to 14,725 tonnes as compared to 12,385 tonnes in December 2021. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 87.5 Rupees to end at 22250 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.53% to settled at 15414 while prices up 150 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 22520 and below same could see a test of 22365 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 22810, a move above could see prices testing 22945.
Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 22365-22945.
Jeera prices gained on lower crop estimates.
The production of cumin seed is at 7.25 lakh tonnes in 2021-22 against 7.95 lakh tonnes in 2020-21.
Jeera exports in Feb 2022 up by 23.6% Y/Y at 14000 tonnes compared to 18300 tonnes
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 87.5 Rupees to end at 22250 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 2.08% at 44190 due to concerns over production, slow arrivals, better domestic and exports demand. Domestic cotton arrivals down 25% or 88.95 lakh bales so far this season to around 238 lakh bales compared to last year. As per USDA report, all cotton planted area for coming season (2022) is estimated at 12.2 million acres, up 9 percent from last year. In its latest Apr report, the USDA increase global cotton production forecast in 2021-22 to 120.2 million bales (1 US bale= 218kg), compared to 119.9 million bales in Feb 2022. India’s crop is being unchanged at 26.50 million bales. Meanwhile, CAI, cut cotton production forecast for the country by 8 lakh bales in Apr to 335.18 lakh bales compared to 343 lakh bales pegged in Feb. In the second advance estimates, govt has cut cotton production to 340 lakh bales from 362 lakh bales in 1st estimate. CAI in its latest report has reduced its cotton production by 5.00 lakh bales to 343.13 lakh bales (1 bale of 170 kg) for 2021-22. Consumption also declined by 5 lakh bales to 340 lakh bales, while export and import figures remain unchanged at 15-45 lakh bales respectively. In spot market, Cotton gained by 490 Rupees to end at 44090 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.21% to settled at 4834 while prices up 900 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 43680 and below same could see a test of 43180 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 44490, a move above could see prices testing 44800.
Trading Ideas:
Cotton trading range for the day is 43180-44800.
Cotton prices gains due to concerns over production, slow arrivals, better domestic and exports demand.
Domestic cotton arrivals down 25% or 88.95 lakh bales so far this season to around 238 lakh bales compared to last year.
The USDA increase global cotton production forecast in 2021-22 to 120.2 million bales, compared to 119.9 million bales in Feb 2022.
In spot market, Cotton gained  by 490 Rupees to end at 44090 Rupees.

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