IGI Logo

Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.21% at 52179 buoyed by inflation jitters amid the war in Ukraine. Inflation will remain high this year and next even as the Fed moves steadily to lower the pace of price increases, Cleveland Fed president Loretta Mester said. By making home, auto and other loans more expensive, Fed interest rate increases and other actions "will help reduce excess demand, which is outpacing constrained supply, and bring price pressures down," to the Fed's 2% inflation target, Mester said. Investors tracked geopolitical developments after Russian forces pounded targets in eastern Ukraine with missiles and artillery, as Austria’s leader planned to meet with Putin in Moscow. India's gold imports, which have a bearing on the country's current account deficit (CAD), rose by 33.34 per cent to ₹46.14 billion during the 2021-22 fiscal on account of higher demand, according to official data. Gold imports were worth ₹34.62 billion in 2020-21. The surge in gold imports during the last financial year contributed to the widening of the trade deficit to $192.41 billion, against $102.62 billion in 2020-21. India is the world's second-biggest gold consumer after China. The imports are largely driven by the jewellery industry. The gems and jewellery exports during 2021-22 grew by about 50 per cent to about $39 billion. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.65% to settled at 18091 while prices up 108 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 51886 and below same could see a test of 51594 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 52605, a move above could see prices testing 53032.
Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 51594-53032.
Gold prices rallied buoyed by inflation jitters amid the war in Ukraine.
Investors tracked geopolitical developments after Russian forces pounded targets in eastern Ukraine with missiles and artillery
Cleveland Fed's Mester says inflation elevated through 2023 but trajectory will fall

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.45% at 67294 amid concerns about inflation and a worsening coronavirus outbreak in Shanghai bolstered the precious metal's safe-haven appeal. China's largest Covid-19 outbreak in two years continues to spread despite an extended lockdown of Shanghai's 25 million people. Russian President Putin's generals are feeling the pressure to deliver some sort of results ahead of May 9, when Russia marks Victory Day. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged Western leaders, in particular President Joe Biden, to do more as Russia appointed a new military commander and looked to concentrate its attacks on the eastern part of the country. With China maintaining its COVID Zero strategy, investors fear that there will be consequences for global growth, supply chains and inflation. The U.S. consumer price index is due on Tuesday, with economists expecting a rise of 8.5 percent on year. Core inflation is seen rising to 6.6 percent from 6.4 percent in February, which would be the highest reading since 1982. The European Central Bank is set to hold its latest policy-setting meeting on Thursday. Amid record-high inflation, investors are waiting to see whether policymakers will issue any guidance on future monetary policy. The ECB's dilemma has been complicated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Western sanctions against Moscow. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.89% to settled at 6129 while prices up 302 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 66642 and below same could see a test of 65989 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 68214, a move above could see prices testing 69133.
Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 65989-69133.
Silver rose amid concerns about inflation and a worsening coronavirus outbreak in Shanghai bolstered the precious metal's safe-haven appeal.
China's largest Covid-19 outbreak in two years continues to spread despite an extended lockdown of Shanghai's 25 million people.
Russian President Putin's generals are feeling the pressure to deliver some sort of results ahead of May 9, when Russia marks Victory Day.


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -2.74% at 7176 as major consumers announced plans to release crude from strategic reserves and as lockdowns continued in top importer China. Investors tracked developments in China, where authorities have kept Shanghai, a city of 26 million people, locked down under its “zero tolerance” for Covid-19. Also weighing on crude prices, IEA member states will release 60 million barrels over the next six months, with the US matching that amount as part of its 180 million barrel release announced in March. It is unclear whether that will offset the shortfall in Russian crude after the country was hit with heavy sanctions for invading Ukraine. Meanwhile, the OPEC+ group of oil exporting nations has not shown any intention to increase its output targets more than the 400,000 barrels per day it has been adding monthly as part of a restoration of supply cuts. In the United States, energy firms last week added oil and natural gas rigs for a third week in a row as Washington seeks more production to help its allies wean themselves off Russian oil and gas. Domestic crude oil production edged upward last week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 26.76% to settled at 5409 while prices down -202 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7043 and below same could see a test of 6909 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7339, a move above could see prices testing 7501.
Trading Ideas:
Crude oil trading range for the day is 6909-7501.
Crude oil fell as major consumers announced plans to release crude from strategic reserves and as lockdowns continued in top importer China.
IEA members to release 60 mln barrels over 6 months
U.S. producers added 13 oil rigs in the week to April 8

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 4.7% at 501.7 amid lingering worries about global energy supplies exuberated by the war in Ukraine against a growing demand backdrop. European Union countries agreed to ban coal imports from Russia while pledged to start working on an embargo on Russian oil, gas and nuclear fuel, putting additional pressure on energy markets. Shipments of LNG to Europe are already at record levels, and the US is facing significant pressure to help the continent secure further supplies. Supporting prices further were inventory data showing a more-than-anticipated draw of 33 bcf last week to a nearly 3-year low and at around 17% below their five-year average. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 94.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April from 93.7 bcfd in March. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would drop from 99.4 bcfd this week to 95.0 bcfd next week as the weather turns seasonally milder before rising to 95.9 bcfd in two weeks with a brief cool down. The forecasts for this week and next were higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Thursday. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 21.84% to settled at 11876 while prices up 22.5 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 483.9 and below same could see a test of 466 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 512.3, a move above could see prices testing 522.8.
Trading Ideas:
Natural gas trading range for the day is 466-522.8.
Natural gas prices rose amid lingering worries about global energy supplies exuberated by the war in Ukraine against a growing demand backdrop.
European Union countries agreed to ban coal imports from Russia while pledged to start working on an embargo on Russian oil, gas and nuclear fuel
Shipments of LNG to Europe are already at record levels, and the US is facing significant pressure to help the continent secure further supplies.

Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -1.44% at 808 as the market is constantly troubled by the pandemic situation, while the current international complexity has a weaker impact on the domestic market. Pressure on prices continues amid the still spreading COVID in east China and occasional cases in south China. Copper inventory across major Chinese markets fell 5,000 mt from last Friday to 135,300 mt. The inventory dropped on Mondays for six consecutive weeks. China will step up policy measures in timely way to support the economy that faces greater uncertainties and challenges, state media quoted Premier Li Keqiang as saying. Authorities will also study new contingency plans, Li was quoted as saying. China will keep its yuan currency basically stable, Li added. In China, in-plant inventory of downstream processing companies in Zhejiang and Jiangsu has been falling, and had to purchase from smelters in surrounding areas and delivery warehouses in order to maintain production. In addition, spot premiums surged amid rising demand and booming transport cost, and some was as high as 500 yuan/mt, a complete opposite to the freezing Shanghai market. Chile, the world's top copper producer, saw exports of the red metal reach $4.95 billion in March, the Andean country's central bank said. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 13.73% to settled at 4060 while prices down -11.8 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 803.4 and below same could see a test of 798.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 816.4, a move above could see prices testing 824.7.
Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 798.7-824.7.
Copper dropped as the market is constantly troubled by the pandemic situation
Pressure on prices continues amid the still spreading COVID in east China and occasional cases in south China.
Copper inventory across major Chinese markets fell 5,000 mt from last Friday to 135,300 mt.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.08% at 358.8 paring gains as China's output of refined zinc in March 2022 is estimated at 501,300 mt, up 42,900 mt or 9.37% MoM and 0.9% YoY. The total output of refined zinc from January to March 2022 is expected to be 1.477 million mt, down 2.19% year-on-year. Output of domestic refined zinc rose sharply in March from a month ago, however it was lower than expected. Reasons for the increase in output are as follow: Smelters in Liaoning resumed production, providing a small increase. Some small smelters in Sichuan stopped production, but production resumption of local secondary zinc plants drove the output of Sichuan increasing MoM. Some smelters in Inner Mongolia resumed production after maintenance without full capacity, but still provided the main increase. On the consumption, zinc prices were high due to spreading pandemic, and some downstream companies were wait-and-see, subsiding market transactions. In the spot market, the social inventory across seven market totalled 280,400 mt as of today April 11, up slightly from Friday April 8, which has been rising slightly since late March. Prices gained earlier in the day driven higher by production cuts in Europe because of record high power prices as well as significant shortages and inventory draws. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -16.09% to settled at 1398 while prices down -0.3 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 355.5 and below same could see a test of 352.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 363.1, a move above could see prices testing 367.3.
Trading Ideas:
Zinc trading range for the day is 352.1-367.3.
Zinc prices dropped paring gains as China's output of refined zinc in March 2022 is estimated at up by 9.37% MoM.
The total output of refined zinc from January to March 2022 is expected to be 1.477 million mt, down 2.19% year-on-year.
LME inventory kept falling, and cancelled warrants rose steeply, and market shall watch overseas short squeeze.

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled down by -1.12% at 2436.8 as a stronger dollar and demand worries due to continued COVID-19 lockdowns in China weighed on the metals. Pressure seen on disappointing China manufacturing PMI which stood at 48.83, down 4.62% YoY, and the climate index was greatly impacted by the pandemic. On the supply side, the pandemic has brought transportation problems, and the supply of Jinchuan nickel in Shanghai is relatively tight. As the price difference between SHFE and LME nickel remains great, and the supply of Sumitomo, NORNICKEL, NIKKELVERK nickel and nickel briquette is still tight. In terms of nickel pig iron, the production and transportation problems of NPI plants in Liaoning and Inner Mongolia have been seriously affected, and the output is expected to fall in March. On the demand side, the cost efficiency of self-dissolved nickel briquette in the nickel sulphate plant has not recovered amid high futures prices. In addition, the output of the downstream precursor plants and the ternary cathode material plants did not contract in March thanks to their in-plant stocks, but the inventory in April will be low, hence there is possibility of production cuts. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.91% to settled at 167 while prices down -27.5 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 2407.8 and below same could see a test of 2378.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 2457.8, a move above could see prices testing 2478.9.
Trading Ideas:
Nickel trading range for the day is 2378.9-2478.9.
Nickel dropped as a stronger dollar and demand worries due to continued COVID-19 lockdowns in China weighed on the metals.
Sumitomo Metal sees global nickel demand for battery use at 410,000 in 2022
Nickel briquette prices stood above 200,000 yuan/mt, and demand from nickel sulphate plants may contract.

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -3.25% at 267.7 as COVID-19 lockdowns in top consumer China fuelled worries about slowing demand for industrial metals. Some investors may choose to take profits as the COVID restrictions hit aluminium demand in China. Smelters in Yunnan province have been ramping up production faster. China has imposed lockdowns to contain the spread of the Omicron coronavirus variant in places including Jilin province and Shanghai, where factories of major automakers and their suppliers are located. Low stocks of aluminium in LME-registered warehouses and in those monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange are expected to support prices. However, the discount for the cash contract over three-month aluminium was last at $23 a tonne, against a premium in February, suggesting the market is not worried about supplies. China's factory inflation eased slightly in March but beat expectations, data showed, as the country grapples with cost pressures caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and persistent supply chain bottlenecks. The wait to deliver out primary aluminium from Istim’s LME warehouses in Port Klang, Malaysia, fell to its lowest level in a year in March, while queues in Singapore grew, according to the latest LME data. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 16.97% to settled at 2929 while prices down -9 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 263.6 and below same could see a test of 259.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 273.5, a move above could see prices testing 279.2.
Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 259.4-279.2.
Aluminium prices fell as COVID-19 lockdowns in top consumer China fuelled worries about slowing demand for industrial metals.
Smelters in Yunnan province have been ramping up production faster
The discount for the cash contract over three-month aluminium was last at $23 a tonne, against a premium in February, the market is not worried about supplies


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -2.76% at 1105.1 on profit booking after prices rose on reports that due to poor prices farmers has shifted to other crops resulting lower production. Germany's BASF said it would have to stop production if natural gas supplies fell to less than half its needs, as the world's largest chemicals group warned of the damage to its operations from Europe's power crunch. Mentha farming has lost its allure in Uttar Pradesh as farmers struggle without stable price, MSP and government support. High input costs and lack of support price have drastically brought down the return of farmers who have already been struggling to increase their incomes. Prices gains amid loss in production and improvement in demand while monsoon is yet to be seen as last year heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season came like a disaster for farmer. Last year the unseasonal heavy rainfall in May destroyed the ready to be harvested mentha crop. The month, as per the IMD, was the second wettest May in the past 121 years. Maharashtra and West Bengal lifts all its Covid curbs which will help Mentha oil and its derivatives to gains its demand as they are extensively used in food, pharmaceutical, perfumery, and flavouring industry. FMCG industry reels under extraordinary inflationary pressures, experts believe it will continue to grow in both volume and value, but margins will get squeezed. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -23.3 Rupees to end at 1221.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.68% to settled at 916 while prices down -31.4 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1091.4 and below same could see a test of 1077.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1118.3, a move above could see prices testing 1131.6.
Trading Ideas:
Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1077.8-1131.6.
In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -23.3 Rupees to end at 1221.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.
Mentha oil dropped on profit booking after prices rose on reports that due to poor prices farmers has shifted to other crops resulting lower production
Germany's BASF, says it may halt production at world’s biggest chemicals plant in Ludwigshafen if gas supply is halved under Germany's emergency plan.
Maharashtra and West Bengal lifts all its Covid curbs which will help Mentha to gains its demand

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.65% at 9488 as new season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season. In the first 9 months (April-December) of FY 2021-22, exports declined by 20.7% over the previous year to 1,16,400 tonnes, but 8.8% higher than the 5-year average. The arrival of the new crop has started in the markets of Telangana and Maharashtra. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones. The farmers, who incurred losses during this period due to low price, are hoping to get good price this year, so that they could clear their dues to some extent. The market sentiment is buoyant mainly since the ending stocks are expected to be 17-18 lakh bags (50 kg each) this year against 25 lakh bags last year. Spices Board data showed turmeric production this year being projected at 11.01 lakh tonnes against 11.78 lakh tonnes last year, mainly on the output being affected in Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Haryana. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 9135.7 Rupees dropped -25.4 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 8.63% to settled at 16105 while prices down -62 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 9382 and below same could see a test of 9276 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 9592, a move above could see prices testing 9696.
Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 9276-9696.
Turmeric dropped as new season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season.
Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations.
Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 9135.7 Rupees dropped -25.4 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.13% at 22525 as new crop arrivals started coming with moisture content 8% to 10%. The export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.44 lakh tonnes in the previous year. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. There were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand. In 2021-22, the area under cumin in Gujarat is only 3.07 lakh hectares as compared to 4.69 lakh hectares in the same period last year and production is expected to decline by 41% to 2.37 lakh tonnes as compared to last year's 4 lakh tonnes as per second advance estimates. The area under jeera has decreased by about 30% in Rajasthan this year, to 5.39 lakh hectares (lh) from 7.7 lh last year, Spices Board officials confirmed. According to the data released by the commerce department, cumin exports in January 2022 increased by 19% to 14,725 tonnes as compared to 12,385 tonnes in December 2021. Carry-forward stocks would be approximately 25 lakh bags. Last year's jeera crop was 93 lakh bags, with a carryover stock of 20 lakh bags. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -65.3 Rupees to end at 22162.5 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.3% to settled at 14469 while prices down -30 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 22285 and below same could see a test of 22050 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 22795, a move above could see prices testing 23070.
Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 22050-23070.
Jeera dropped as new crop arrivals started coming with moisture content 8% to 10%
The export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.44 lakh tonnes in the previous year
There were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand.
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -65.3 Rupees to end at 22162.5 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled flat at 43290 on profit booking tracking weakness in overseas prices hurt by a weak export sales report. The USDA's weekly export sales report showed net sales of 62,900 running bales of cotton for 2021/2022 -- a marketing-year low -- were down 73% from the previous week and 80% from the prior 4-week average. The arrival of cotton in the country is continuously declining, at present the daily arrivals are 65 to 75 lakh bales which will further decrease in the coming week. At the moment, there are very few ginning mills running in the country, the stock of best quality cotton is very low at the moment, similarly the stock of Binola is also low. The price of cotton yarn is continuously increasing, but there is no major demand in the domestic market and export market, due to which the Spinners' Mills Association has cut production, due to which cotton industries will benefit in the long run. Spinning mills are buying cotton at higher prices as the balance sheet of cotton is becoming tighter continuously. USDA's planting intentions report showed U.S. cotton acreage at 12.234 million acres for the 2022/2023 marketing year versus 12.007 million acres forecasted. The USDA also released weekly export sales data which showed net sales of 234,000 running bales of cotton for 2021/2022, down 24% from the previous week. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -440 Rupees to end at 43600 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.71% to settled at 4943 while prices up 40 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 42840 and below same could see a test of 42380 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 43550, a move above could see prices testing 43800.
Trading Ideas:
Cotton trading range for the day is 42380-43800.
Cotton settled flat on profit booking tracking weakness in overseas prices hurt by a weak export sales report.
The USDA's weekly export sales report showed net sales of 62,900 running bales of cotton for 2021/2022 were down 73% from the previous week.
The arrival of cotton in the country is continuously declining, at present the daily arrivals are 65 to 75 lakh bales which will further decrease in the coming week.
In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -440 Rupees to end at 43600 Rupees.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views. Click Here For Disclaimer