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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.44% at 51596 as risk-off sentiment gripped financial markets amid the possibility of more Western sanctions on Russia, although aggressive U.S. rate hike bets kept bullion near a one-week low. Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard spooked investors about potential aggressive actions by the central bank to control inflation. The United States and its allies prepared new sanctions on Moscow over civilian killings which Ukraine described as "war crimes", while Russian artillery pounded Ukrainian cities of Mariupol and Kharkiv. Rising inflation and safe-haven demand resulted in extraordinary demand for physical gold in March, capping off the best start to the year in more than two decades. In its latest sales data, the U.S. mint reported that it sold 155,500 ounces of various denominations of its American Eagle Gold bullion coins, up 73% from last month. The U.S. Mint saw its best March performance since 1999. March ended a solid quarter for bullion demand. The U.S. mint sold 426,500 ounces of gold between January and March, up 3.5% from the first quarter of 2021. Similar to its monthly says, this was the mint's best quarter in 23 years. For the second consecutive month, central banks were net sellers of gold in February, according to the latest report from the World Gold Council. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.28% to settled at 17919 while prices up 225 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 51331 and below same could see a test of 51067 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 51848, a move above could see prices testing 52101.
Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 51067-52101.
Gold turned positive as risk-off sentiment gripped financial markets amid the possibility of more Western sanctions on Russia
Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard spooked investors about potential aggressive actions by the central bank to control inflation.
Central banks sell 6 tonnes of gold in February


Silver
Silver yesterday settled up by 0.16% at 66305 as safe-haven demand spurred by the possibility of new sanctions on Russia countered hawkish comments from Fed Governor Lael Brainard. Markets await fresh sanctions to punish Moscow over alleged atrocities in Ukraine, something Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky described as "war crimes". The European Commission has already proposed new sanctions including banning Russian coal imports, raising worries about a new global supply challenge. Fed Governor Lael Brainard, who is awaiting Senate confirmation to serve as the Fed's vice chairwoman, called the task of reducing inflation pressures "paramount" and indicated an aggressive approach to shrinking the Fed's balance sheet. Growth in developing Asia will likely be slower this year than previously thought, the Asian Development Bank said, as the war in Ukraine is expected to derail economic recovery in the region still reeling from the COVID-19 pandemic. The U.S. trade deficit held at a record high in February as both exports and imports surged, indicating that trade remained a drag on economic growth in the first quarter. The report from the Commerce Department added to recent data that showed a moderation in consumer and business spending in suggesting the economy slowed considerably last quarter amid high inflation triggered by shortages. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.71% to settled at 7598 while prices up 107 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 65885 and below same could see a test of 65465 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 66695, a move above could see prices testing 67085.
Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 65465-67085.
Silver rose as safe-haven demand spurred by the possibility of new sanctions on Russia countered hawkish comments from Fed Governor Lael Brainard.
Fed’s Brainard called the task of reducing inflation pressures "paramount" and indicated an aggressive approach to shrinking the Fed's balance sheet.
Markets await fresh sanctions to punish Moscow over alleged atrocities in Ukraine.


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -5.02% at 7394 after update the International Energy Agency (IEA) will release 120 million barrels of oil to ease prices, half of which would come from the United States. Stocks of crude oil in the United States rose by 1.08 million barrels in the week ended April 1st of 2022, following a 3.01 million barrels fall in the previous week and compared with market expectations of a 2.056 million decline. It was the first increase in US crude inventories in three weeks, data from the American Petroleum Institute showed. Member states of the International Energy Agency (IEA) were still discussing how much oil they would together release from storage to cool markets, adding that an announcement was expected in coming days. The silence on how much oil from storage would be tapped by some of the world's top oil-consuming countries was adding to confusion in a market already jangled by sanctions and buyer aversion to Russian oil in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 31.8% to settled at 6130 while prices down -391 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7180 and below same could see a test of 6967 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7746, a move above could see prices testing 8099.
Trading Ideas:
Crude oil trading range for the day is 6967-8099.
Crude oil seen under pressure after update IEA to release 120 mln barrels of oil to ease prices
US crude oil inventories unexpectedly rise: API
Shanghai's longer lockdown boosts fears of slow demand in China


Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 0.39% at 464.7 on a decline in output and forecasts for more gas demand from power generators over the next two weeks than previously expected. That price increase came despite forecasts for mild weather through late April and lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. U.S. gas futures have climbed in recent months – average prices in March hit their highest levels in eight years – while global gas prices and demand for LNG soared as several countries seek to wean themselves off Russian gas after Moscow invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has risen to 94.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, from 93.7 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record of 96.3 bcfd in December. On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop about 1.4 bcfd to 93.5 bcfd on Tuesday due mostly to declines in Texas, according to preliminary Refinitiv data. If that drop is correct – preliminary data is often revised – it would be the biggest one-day decline since extreme cold in early February froze wells. Cold was definitely not the problem. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.5% to settled at 9682 while prices up 1.8 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 453.9 and below same could see a test of 443 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 480.2, a move above could see prices testing 495.6.
Trading Ideas:
Natural gas trading range for the day is 443-495.6.
Natural gas jumped on a decline in output and forecasts for more gas demand from power generators over the next two weeks than previously expected.
Global gas prices and demand for LNG soared as several countries seek to wean themselves off Russian gas after Moscow invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24.
That price increase came despite forecasts for mild weather through late April and lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.


Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.46% at 817.25 as fears of rapid interest rate rises, slowing economic growth and more sanctions on Russia dented risk appetite and sent the dollar to its strongest level in almost two years. However downside seen limited amid a tight market as investors weigh lower supply from top producer Chile, disruptions caused by the war in Ukraine, and assess the impact of the latest Covid outbreak in China in both demand and supply. However, upside seen limited weighed down by demand concerns from top consumer China and a stronger dollar. Chinese authorities extended a lockdown in Shanghai, an industrial powerhouse and major port, further threatening global supply chains. Logistics operators report that restrictions are already making it harder to move goods around and keep factories operating at full capacity. Meanwhile, the latest data showed China's services sectors contracted the most since the initial onset of the pandemic in February 2020, due to mobility curbs and lower spending. On the supply side, copper output in Chile, the world's largest producer, fell 7% from a year earlier to 394,700 tonnes in February. It follows a fall of 7.5% in January and a 1.9% decline in copper production in 2021. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.7% to settled at 3731 while prices down -3.8 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 813.7 and below same could see a test of 810.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 822.7, a move above could see prices testing 828.1.
Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 810.1-828.1.
Copper prices fell as fears of rapid interest rate rises, slowing economic growth and more sanctions on Russia dented risk appetite
Copper output in Chile, the world's largest producer, fell 7% from a year earlier to 394,700 tonnes in February.
Chinese authorities extended a lockdown in Shanghai, an industrial powerhouse and major port, further threatening global supply chains.


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.34% at 353.65 as expectation of natural gas supply cut heightened, and energy issue again pushed up prices. On-warrant inventories of zinc in LME-registered warehouses tumbled to 45,850 tonnes from more than 100,000 tonnes a week ago, highlighting fears of tight supply. Some downstream companies suspended the production after the Qingming Festival due to poor orders. Social zinc ingot inventory added 4,900 mt from pre-holiday level to 277,700 mt, and high prices would cap zinc prices. Activity in China's services sector contracted at the steepest pace in two years in March as the local surge in coronavirus cases restricted mobility and weighed on client demand, a private sector survey showed. The Caixin services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dived to 42.0 in March from 50.2 in February, dropping below the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis. The reading indicates the sharpest activity decline since the initial onset of the pandemic in February 2020. The survey, which focuses more on small firms in coastal regions, tallied with the gauge of an official survey, which also showed the deterioration in the services sector. Analysts say contact-intensive services sectors such as transportation, hotel and catering were hurt the most, clouding the outlook for a much anticipated rebound in consumption this year. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.16% to settled at 1386 while prices up 1.2 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 350.8 and below same could see a test of 347.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 356.4, a move above could see prices testing 359.1.
Trading Ideas:
Zinc trading range for the day is 347.9-359.1.
Zinc prices rose as expectation of natural gas supply cut heightened, and energy issue again pushed up prices.
On-warrant inventories of zinc in LME-registered warehouses tumbled to 45,850 tonnes from more than 100,000 tonnes a week ago
Some downstream companies suspended the production after the Qingming Festival due to poor orders.


Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled remain unchangeby 0% at 2529.7 as the nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports dipped 230,000 wmt from a week earlier to 5.887 million wmt. Pressure seen on disappointing China manufacturing PMI which stood at 48.83, down 4.62% YoY, and the climate index was greatly impacted by the pandemic. On the supply side, the pandemic has brought transportation problems, and the supply of Jinchuan nickel in Shanghai is relatively tight. As the price difference between SHFE and LME nickel remains great, and the supply of Sumitomo, NORNICKEL, NIKKELVERK nickel and nickel briquette is still tight. In terms of nickel pig iron, the production and transportation problems of NPI plants in Liaoning and Inner Mongolia have been seriously affected, and the output is expected to fall in March. On the demand side, the cost efficiency of self-dissolved nickel briquette in the nickel sulphate plant has not recovered amid high futures prices. In addition, the output of the downstream precursor plants and the ternary cathode material plants did not contract in March thanks to their in-plant stocks, but the inventory in April will be low, hence there is possibility of production cuts. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed remain unchanged in open interest by 0% to settled at 174 while prices remain unchanged 0 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1686.4 and below same could see a test of 843.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1686.4, a move above could see prices testing 843.2.
Trading Ideas:
Nickel trading range for the day is 843.2-843.2.
Nickel settled flat as the nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports dipped 230,000 wmt from a week earlier to 5.887 million wmt.
Sumitomo Metal sees global nickel demand for battery use at 410,000 in 2022
Nickel briquette prices stood above 200,000 yuan/mt, and demand from nickel sulphate plants may contract.


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.36% at 280.9 as more supporting policies in China are expected to come into force in order to achieve the 5.5% annual growth target. Some Japanese aluminium buyers have agreed with at least two global producers to pay a premium of $172 a tonne over the benchmark price for April-June shipments, down 2.8% from the previous quarter. The figure is lower than the $177 per tonne paid in the January-March quarter and marks a second consecutive quarterly drop. It is also lower than initial offers of $195-$250 made by producers. Spot discounts in east China remained at around 90 yuan/mt, and aluminium ingot and billet social inventories both rose slightly during the Qingming Festival. The east China market was still under the influence of pandemic in terms of logistics and downstream operating rates. China is stepping up exports of aluminium to fill a widening supply gap in Western markets. The country shipped out 26,378 tonnes of primary aluminium in February, the highest monthly total since 2010. Imports collapsed over the first two months of the year, with the result that China turned a net exporter in February for the first time since November 2019. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.04% to settled at 2463 while prices up 1 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 278.2 and below same could see a test of 275.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 284.6, a move above could see prices testing 288.2.
Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 275.4-288.2.
Aluminium rose as more supporting policies in China are expected to come into force in order to achieve the 5.5% annual growth target.
Some Japanese buyers agree Q2 aluminium premium of $172/T
China is stepping up exports of aluminium to fill a widening supply gap in Western markets.


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -1.03% at 1109.8 on profit booking after prices gained on reports that due to poor prices farmers has shifted to other crops resulting lower production. Germany's BASF said it would have to stop production if natural gas supplies fell to less than half its needs, as the world's largest chemicals group warned of the damage to its operations from Europe's power crunch. Mentha farming has lost its allure in Uttar Pradesh as farmers struggle without stable price, MSP and government support. High input costs and lack of support price have drastically brought down the return of farmers who have already been struggling to increase their incomes. Prices gains amid loss in production and improvement in demand while monsoon is yet to be seen as last year heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season came like a disaster for farmer. Last year the unseasonal heavy rainfall in May destroyed the ready to be harvested mentha crop. The month, as per the IMD, was the second wettest May in the past 121 years. Maharashtra and West Bengal lifts all its Covid curbs which will help Mentha oil and its derivatives to gains its demand as they are extensively used in food, pharmaceutical, perfumery, and flavouring industry. FMCG industry reels under extraordinary inflationary pressures, experts believe it will continue to grow in both volume and value, but margins will get squeezed. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 15.2 Rupees to end at 1235.6 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.78% to settled at 916 while prices down -11.6 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1092 and below same could see a test of 1074.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1130.9, a move above could see prices testing 1151.9.
Trading Ideas:
Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1074.1-1151.9.
In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 15.2 Rupees to end at 1235.6 Rupees per 360 kgs.
Mentha oil dropped on profit booking after prices gained on reports that due to poor prices farmers has shifted to other crops resulting lower production
Germany's BASF, says it may halt production at world’s biggest chemicals plant in Ludwigshafen if gas supply is halved under Germany's emergency plan.
Maharashtra and West Bengal lifts all its Covid curbs which will help Mentha to gains its demand


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -1.64% at 9608 as new season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season. In the first 9 months (April-December) of FY 2021-22, exports declined by 20.7% over the previous year to 1,16,400 tonnes, but 8.8% higher than the 5-year average. The arrival of the new crop has started in the markets of Telangana and Maharashtra. Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. The farmers, who incurred losses during this period due to low price, are hoping to get good price this year, so that they could clear their dues to some extent. The market sentiment is buoyant mainly since the ending stocks are expected to be 17-18 lakh bags (50 kg each) this year against 25 lakh bags last year. Spices Board data showed turmeric production this year being projected at 11.01 lakh tonnes against 11.78 lakh tonnes last year, mainly on the output being affected in Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Haryana. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8873.7 Rupees gained 183.7 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 13.13% to settled at 12150 while prices down -160 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 9480 and below same could see a test of 9352 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 9768, a move above could see prices testing 9928.
Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 9352-9928.
Turmeric dropped as new season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season.
Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones
In the first 9 months (April-December) of FY 2021-22, exports declined by 20.7% over the previous year to 1,16,400 tonnes.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8873.7 Rupees gained 183.7 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -1.35% at 23055 as the export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.44 lakh tonnes in the previous year. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. there were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand. In 2021-22, the area under cumin in Gujarat is only 3.07 lakh hectares as compared to 4.69 lakh hectares in the same period last year and production is expected to decline by 41% to 2.37 lakh tonnes as compared to last year's 4 lakh tonnes as per second advance estimates. The area under jeera has decreased by about 30% in Rajasthan this year, to 5.39 lakh hectares (lh) from 7.7 lh last year, Spices Board officials confirmed. According to the data released by the commerce department, cumin exports in January 2022 increased by 19% to 14,725 tonnes as compared to 12,385 tonnes in December 2021. Carry-forward stocks would be approximately 25 lakh bags. Last year's jeera crop was 93 lakh bags, with a carryover stock of 20 lakh bags. The decline in the jeera area is more pronounced in Rajasthan, where farmers have shifted to mustard because prices for the oilseed crop were favourable during the sowing season. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 504.3 Rupees to end at 22340 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.17% to settled at 11475 while prices down -315 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 22870 and below same could see a test of 22680 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 23305, a move above could see prices testing 23550.
Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 22680-23550.
Jeera dropped as the export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.44 lakh tonnes in the previous year
There were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand.
At Jodhpur market, new crop arrivals started coming with moisture content 8% to 10%
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 504.3 Rupees to end at 22340 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 1.58% at 43690 on fears of shortfall in production and higher demand for raw cotton for export. The arrival of cotton in the country is continuously declining, at present the daily arrivals are 65 to 75 lakh bales which will further decrease in the coming week. At the moment, there are very few ginning mills running in the country, the stock of best quality cotton is very low at the moment, similarly the stock of Binola is also low. The price of cotton yarn is continuously increasing, but there is no major demand in the domestic market and export market, due to which the Spinners' Mills Association has cut production, due to which cotton industries will benefit in the long run. Spinning mills are buying cotton at higher prices as the balance sheet of cotton is becoming tighter continuously. USDA's planting intentions report showed U.S. cotton acreage at 12.234 million acres for the 2022/2023 marketing year versus 12.007 million acres forecasted. The USDA also released weekly export sales data which showed net sales of 234,000 running bales of cotton for 2021/2022, down 24% from the previous week. In spot market, Cotton gained by 170 Rupees to end at 43880 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.8% to settled at 5201 while prices up 680 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 43070 and below same could see a test of 42440 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 44140, a move above could see prices testing 44580.
Trading Ideas:
Cotton trading range for the day is 42440-44580.
Cotton gains on fears of shortfall in production and higher demand for raw cotton for export.
The arrival of cotton in the country is continuously declining, at present the daily arrivals are 65 to 75 lakh bales which will further decrease in the coming week.
At the moment, there are very few ginning mills running in the country, the stock of best quality cotton is very low at the moment.
In spot market, Cotton gained  by 170 Rupees to end at 43880 Rupees.

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