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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.96% at 51754 boosted by a pullback in the dollar, although bullion was headed for a monthly drop as aggressive interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve loom. Also lifting the safe-haven metal's appeal, data showed the U.S. economy unexpectedly contracted in the first quarter amid a resurgence in COVID-19 cases and drop in pandemic relief money from the government. Markets focus is now on the U.S. central bank's two-day policy meeting starting on May 3, when officials are expected to increase the target policy rate by half a percentage point. India's gold demand is likely to remain soft in second quarter after falling 18% in the first quarter as retail purchases during a key festival early next month could be below normal because of volatile prices, the World Gold Council (WGC) said. The gold market saw a strong start to 2022, and conditions are in place for investment demand to remain solid for the rest of the year as investors look to protect themselves from inflation and look for diversification, according to the latest research from the World Gold Council (WGC). China's net gold imports via Hong Kong fell 38.7% in March from the previous month, Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department data showed. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.52% to settled at 12649 while prices up 492 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 51543 and below same could see a test of 51331 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 51923, a move above could see prices testing 52091.
Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 51331-52091.
Gold prices jumped boosted by a pullback in the dollar
Dollar set for best monthly performance since 2015
Gold demand rises 34% in Q1, driven by strong ETF demand – World Gold Council


Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.36% at 64349 as impending interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve to bring down 40-year high inflation weighed on the metal. Data showed a surprise contraction in the U.S. economy in the first quarter of 2022. A report released by the Commerce Department showed U.S. economic activity unexpectedly contracted in the first quarter of 2022, with gross domestic product declining by 1.4%, after spiking by 6.9% in the fourth quarter of 2021. The Commerce Department said the unexpected drop in GDP reflected decreases in private inventory investment, exports, and government spending along with an increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP. According to the report released by the Labor Department, first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits edged slightly lower in the week ended April 23rd, dipping to 180,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised level of 185,000. U.S. consumer spending increased more than expected in March amid strong demand for services, while monthly inflation surged by the most since 2005. Investors also remained concerned about soaring inflation and supply chain issues exacerbated by the Ukraine war, as well as a Covid outbreak in China that clouded the outlook further for global economic growth. Meanwhile, Fed officials have aligned around plans to accelerate rate hikes this year to combat inflation, but remained split over the extent of monetary tightening to avoid dragging the economy into recession. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 19.1% to settled at 13224 while prices down -231 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 63814 and below same could see a test of 63280 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 65146, a move above could see prices testing 65944.
Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 63280-65944.
Silver dropped as impending interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve to bring down 40-year high inflation weighed on the metal.
U.S. consumer spending increased more than expected in March amid strong demand for services, while monthly inflation surged by the most since 2005.
Investors also remained concerned about soaring inflation and supply chain issues exacerbated by the Ukraine war.


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 1% at 8117 amid concerns over supply due to the possible impact of sanctions on Russia's crude oil production. Meanwhile, Germany, which was against a ban on Russian oil, has dropped its opposition to a European Union ban on purchases of Russian oil provided it is given time to find alternative sources of supply. Data released by U.S. Energy Administration (EIA) that showed a drop in gasoline and distillate stockpiles last week supported oil prices. The EIA data showed crude inventories rose by 700,000 barrels in the week ended April 22. Gasoline inventories dropped by 1.6 million barrels in the week, significantly more than an expected drop of about 100,000 barrels. OPEC+ is likely to stick to its existing deal and agree another small output increase for June when it meets on May 5, even as Russia expects its output to shrink further. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, collectively known as OPEC+, have been unwinding record output cuts in place since the COVID-19 pandemic took hold in 2020. Markets are keenly awaiting the outcome of the meeting of OPEC+ countries scheduled next week, to discuss the increase in output in the month of June. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.86% to settled at 6924 while prices up 80 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 8015 and below same could see a test of 7913 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8246, a move above could see prices testing 8375.
Trading Ideas:
Crude oil trading range for the day is 7913-8375.
Crude oil rose amid concerns over supply due to the possible impact of sanctions on Russia's crude oil production.
OPEC+ likely to stick to existing deal and raise June output
Data released by U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) that showed a drop in gasoline and distillate stockpiles last week supported oil prices.


Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 3.62% at 555.8 as some parts of the country rapidly move from heating demand to cooling demand, which could reduce the amount of gas utilities inject into already low stockpiles in coming weeks. Traders also noted U.S. futures continued to gain support from much higher global gas prices that will keep demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports strong. The premium for futures for July over June rose to 11 cents per mmBtu, putting the spread on track to close at a record high for a third day in a row. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 94.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April from 93.7 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record of 96.3 bcfd in December 2021. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would slide from 93.2 bcfd this week to 90.7 bcfd next week and 90.5 bcfd in two weeks due to a seasonal warming of the weather. The forecast for this week was lower than Refinitiv's outlook. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants slid to 12.3 bcfd so far in April due to maintenance at Gulf Coast plants, down from a record 12.9 bcfd in March. The United States can turn about 13.2 bcfd of gas into LNG. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 10.06% to settled at 5229 while prices up 19.4 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 530.7 and below same could see a test of 505.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 570.5, a move above could see prices testing 585.3.
Trading Ideas:
Natural gas trading range for the day is 505.7-585.3.
Natural gas rose as some parts of the country rapidly move from heating demand to cooling demand
Prices continued to gain support from much higher global gas prices that will keep demand for U.S. LNG exports strong.
The premium for futures for July over June rose to 11 cents per mmBtu, putting the spread on track to close at a record high for a third day in a row.



Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.55% at 782.85 amid COVID-19 lockdowns in China and prospects of aggressive U.S. rate hikes fuelled recession fears. U.S. Federal Reserve officials have aligned around plans to accelerate the pace of interest rate hikes this year but remain split over what could be the make-or-break decision of where to stop to avoid dragging the economy into recession. Data showed the U.S. economy unexpectedly contracted in the first quarter amid a resurgence in COVID-19 cases and drop in pandemic relief money from the government. Beijing closed some schools and public spaces, as most of the Chinese capital's 22 million residents turned up for more mass COVID-19 testing aimed at averting a Shanghai-like lockdown. The U.S. trade deficit in goods widened to a record high in March likely as businesses who are worried about shortages front-loaded imports after the conflict in Ukraine, raising the risk that economic growth stalled in the first quarter. China will step up infrastructure construction to boost domestic demand and drive economic growth going forward, citing a meeting chaired by President Xi Jinping. The global world refined copper market showed a 16,000 tonne surplus in January, compared with a 74,000 tonnes deficit in December, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.49% to settled at 4239 while prices down -4.35 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 777.7 and below same could see a test of 772.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 791.7, a move above could see prices testing 800.6.
Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 772.6-800.6.
Copper prices seen pressure amid COVID-19 lockdowns in China and prospects of aggressive U.S. rate hikes fuelled recession fears.
Data showed the U.S. economy unexpectedly contracted in the first quarter amid a resurgence in COVID-19 cases
Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 30.8 percent from last Friday, the exchange said.


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -2.52% at 343.6 as dollar seen supported as the Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise the target for the fed funds rate by a half-point to 0.5%-1% during its May 2022 meeting. Supply of global refined zinc is likely to be in deficit in 2022, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) said. Supply of refined zinc will be in a 292,000 tonne deficit, the ILZSG said. For zinc, after a strong post‐pandemic recovery of 5.7% in 2021, global demand for refined metal is forecast to rise by a more modest 1.6% to 14.26 million tonnes in 2022. After rising by 4.1% in 2021, world zinc mine production is forecast to rise by 3.9% to 13.28 million tonnes in 2022. Global refined zinc metal output will rise by 0.9% to 13.97 million tonnes in 2022, after rising 0.4% in 2021, ILZSG said. The Working Meetings of the Political Bureau emphasised stable economic development despite disturbance from COVID. Total zinc ingots inventories across seven major markets in China stood at 277,100 mt as of Friday April 29, down 6,500 mt from April 22, down 6,800 mt from April 25. Domestic inventory of zinc decreased sharply this week. In Shanghai, the lockdown has not been lifted. Although goods could be picked up with permit, no delivery has been seen and inventory in Shanghai continued to increase. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -13.27% to settled at 1065 while prices down -8.9 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 339.2 and below same could see a test of 334.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 351.7, a move above could see prices testing 359.9.
Trading Ideas:
Zinc trading range for the day is 334.9-359.9.
Zinc dropped as Fed is widely expected to raise the target for the fed funds rate by a half-point to 0.5%-1% during its May 2022 meeting
Supply of global refined zinc is likely to be in deficit in 2022
Supply of refined zinc will be in a 292,000 tonne deficit, the ILZSG said.


Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled down by -2.97% at 2474.2 as Sumitomo Metal sees global nickel demand for battery use at 410,000 in 2022. China manufacturing PMI which stood at 48.83, down 4.62% YoY, and the climate index was greatly impacted by the pandemic. On the supply side, the pandemic has brought transportation problems, and the supply of Jinchuan nickel in Shanghai is relatively tight. As the price difference between SHFE and LME nickel remains great, and the supply of Sumitomo, NORNICKEL, NIKKELVERK nickel and nickel briquette is still tight. In terms of nickel pig iron, the production and transportation problems of NPI plants in Liaoning and Inner Mongolia have been seriously affected, and the output is expected to fall in March. On the demand side, the cost efficiency of self-dissolved nickel briquette in the nickel sulphate plant has not recovered amid high futures prices. In addition, the output of the downstream precursor plants and the ternary cathode material plants did not contract in March thanks to their in-plant stocks, but the inventory in April will be low, hence there is possibility of production cuts. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.38% to settled at 43 while prices down -75.8 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 2459.1 and below same could see a test of 2444 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 2495.2, a move above could see prices testing 2516.2.
Trading Ideas:
Nickel trading range for the day is 2444-2516.2.
Nickel settled flat as Sumitomo Metal sees global nickel demand for battery use at 410,000 in 2022
Global nickel market sees surplus in February – INSG
Nickel briquette prices stood above 200,000 yuan/mt, and demand from nickel sulphate plants may contract.


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.24% at 252.9 as investors are cautious amid the rising US dollar and the risk of slowing economic growth. However, downside seen limited after the top decision-making body of China's Communist Party said the country would step up policy support to stabilise the economy. COVID-19 mass testing in Shanghai and Beijing is disrupting economic activity, while liquidity tightening is another headwind for demand. U.S. Federal Reserve officials have aligned around plans to accelerate the pace of interest rate hikes this year but remain split over what could be the make-or-break decision of where to stop to avoid dragging the economy into recession. According to statistics, social inventory of aluminium across China stood at 987,000 mt, a decrease by 34,000 mt from April 21, down 11% or 128,000 mt from a year ago. Inventory of aluminium hovered at a low level and continued to decline. By regions, the delivery from Wuxi gradually recovered with a decrease by 25,000 mt in weekly stocks. The domestic aluminium billet inventory stood at 105,900 mt as of April 28, a drop of 9.88% from a week ago. Global primary aluminium output in March fell 1.55% year on year to 5.693 million tonnes, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. Estimated Chinese production was 3.29 million tonnes in March, the IAI said. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.16% to settled at 2631 while prices down -0.6 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 250.4 and below same could see a test of 247.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 255.7, a move above could see prices testing 258.4.
Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 247.8-258.4.
Aluminium dropped as investors are cautious amid the rising US dollar and the risk of slowing economic growth.
Social inventory of aluminium across China stood at 987,000 mt, a decrease by 34,000 mt from April 21, down 11
The domestic aluminium billet inventory stood at 105,900 mt as of April 28, a drop of 9.88% from a week ago.


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.8% at 1077.6 on profit booking after prices gained as the harvest is expected to be almost the same as last year's in Barabanki area but harvesting this year is expected to be delayed. Crop growth is poor this year compared with last year despite use of fertiliser. The plant is about 25% less than the total crop, water is being felt after every three days. Prices gained on reports that due to poor prices farmers has shifted to other crops resulting lower production. Germany's BASF said it would have to stop production if natural gas supplies fell to less than half its needs, as the world's largest chemicals group warned of the damage to its operations from Europe's power crunch. Mentha farming has lost its allure in Uttar Pradesh as farmers struggle without stable price, MSP and government support. High input costs and lack of support price have drastically brought down the return of farmers who have already been struggling to increase their incomes. Prices gains amid loss in production and improvement in demand while monsoon is yet to be seen as last year heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season came like a disaster for farmer. FMCG industry reels under extraordinary inflationary pressures, experts believe it will continue to grow in both volume and value, but margins will get squeezed. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -30.8 Rupees to end at 1179.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.42% to settled at 1071 while prices down -8.7 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1069.9 and below same could see a test of 1062.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1087.6, a move above could see prices testing 1097.5.
Trading Ideas:
Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1062.1-1097.5.
In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -30.8 Rupees to end at 1179.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.
Mentha oil dropped on profit booking after prices gained as the harvest is expected to be almost the same as last year's in Barabanki area but harvesting to be delayed.
Crop growth is poor this year compared with last year despite use of fertiliser.
The plant is about 25% less than the total crop, water is being felt after every three days.


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.65% at 8510 as new season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season. As per first advance estimates by the Govt for 2021/22 season, the production of turmeric is pegged at 11.76 lakh tonnes in 2021-22 against 11.24 lt in 2020-21. As per govt data, turmeric exports in Jan 2022 is down by 25% m/m at 10,600 tonnes Vs 14275 tonnes in Dec 2021. In Feb, turmeric exports recorded lower by 17% on year at 10400 tonnes vs 12,575 tonnes while in FY 2021/22 (Apr-Feb), exports down 20% at 1.37 lakh tons compared to last year but higher by 8.3% compared with 5-year average. Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones. The farmers, who incurred losses during this period due to low price, are hoping to get good price this year, so that they could clear their dues to some extent. The market sentiment is buoyant mainly since the ending stocks are expected to be 17-18 lakh bags (50 kg each) this year against 25 lakh bags last year. Spices Board data showed turmeric production this year being projected at 11.01 lakh tonnes against 11.78 lakh tonnes last year, mainly on the output being affected in Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Haryana. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8606.1 Rupees dropped -56.4 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.87% to settled at while prices down -56 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8440 and below same could see a test of 8370 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8630, a move above could see prices testing 8750.
Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 8370-8750.
Turmeric dropped as new season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season.
As per first advance estimates, the production of turmeric is pegged at 11.76 lakh tonnes in 2021-22 against 11.24 lt in 2020-21.
In FY 2021/22 (Apr-Feb), exports down 20% at 1.37 lakh tons compared to last year but higher by 8.3% compared with 5-year average.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8606.1 Rupees dropped -56.4 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.68% at 21885 as new crop arrivals started coming with moisture content 8% to 10%. The export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.44 lakh tonnes in the previous year. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. There were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand. In 2021-22, the area under cumin in Gujarat is only 3.07 lakh hectares as compared to 4.69 lakh hectares in the same period last year and production is expected to decline by 41% to 2.37 lakh tonnes as compared to last year's 4 lakh tonnes as per second advance estimates. The area under jeera has decreased by about 30% in Rajasthan this year, to 5.39 lakh hectares (lh) from 7.7 lh last year, Spices Board officials confirmed. According to the data released by the commerce department, cumin exports in January 2022 increased by 19% to 14,725 tonnes as compared to 12,385 tonnes in December 2021. Carry-forward stocks would be approximately 25 lakh bags. Last year's jeera crop was 93 lakh bags, with a carryover stock of 20 lakh bags. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -115.35 Rupees to end at 21792.45 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.24% to settled at while prices down -150 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 21750 and below same could see a test of 21610 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 22105, a move above could see prices testing 22320.
Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 21610-22320.
Jeera dropped as new crop arrivals started coming with moisture content 8% to 10%
The export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.44 lakh tonnes in the previous year
There were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand.
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -115.35 Rupees to end at 21792.45 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.75% at 45710 due to concerns over production, slow arrivals, better domestic and exports demand. Domestic cotton arrivals down 25% or 88.95 lakh bales so far this season to around 238 lakh bales compared to last year. The Telangana government is targeting to increase the area under cotton by 55–65 per cent to about 28–30 lakh hectares (lh) from last year’s 18 lakh hectares even as the cottonseed industry pegged the growth in cotton acreage at 15 per cent in the upcoming kharif season, starting July. As per USDA report, all cotton planted area for coming season (2022) is estimated at 12.2 million acres, up 9 percent from last year. In its latest Apr report, the USDA increase global cotton production forecast in 2021-22 to 120.2 million bales (1 US bale= 218kg), compared to 119.9 million bales in Feb 2022. India’s crop is being unchanged at 26.50 million bales. India allowed duty-free imports of cotton until Sept. 30 as prices in the local market jumped to a record high because of a drop in the production, the government said in a notification. The world's biggest producer of the fibre also removed the Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess (AIDC) on the imports, the government said. In spot market, Cotton gained by 590 Rupees to end at 45880 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.85% to settled at 3671 while prices up 340 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 45230 and below same could see a test of 44740 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 46280, a move above could see prices testing 46840.
Trading Ideas:
Cotton trading range for the day is 44740-46840.
Cotton gained due to concerns over production, slow arrivals, better domestic and exports demand.
India allowed duty-free imports of cotton until Sept. 30 as prices in the local market jumped to a record high because of a drop in the production.
India's cotton output is likely to fall to 33.51 million bales in the current year from last year's 35.3 million bales, estimates CAI.
In spot market, Cotton gained  by 590 Rupees to end at 45880 Rupees.

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