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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.75% at 50959 as a firmer dollar and elevated U.S. Treasury yields weighed on the appeal of non-yielding bullion. The dollar surged to a two-decade high on growing concerns over slowing economic growth and U.S. interest rate hikes. Two of the Federal Reserve's policy hawks pushed back on the view that the U.S. central bank missed the boat on the fight against stubborn inflation, citing a tightening of financial conditions that began well before the Fed began raising interest rates in March. Investors continued to bet on further Federal Reserve monetary tightening to bring decades-high inflation under control. The Fed raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 50 basis points, the biggest jump in 22 years, while Chair Jerome Powell added the bank was not considering a 75 basis-point move in the future. However, he assured Americans that the central bank will do what it takes to curb surging inflation, while acknowledging that this could risk economic pain. Meanwhile, the latest data showed the economy added 428K jobs in April, more than expectations for a 391K increase and the 12th straight month of job gains above 400K. The physical gold market in India flipped to a premium as a price dip helped drive demand in the run up to the Akshaya Tritiya festival, while COVID-induced curbs muted activity in top consumer China. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.39% to settled at 8625 while prices down -384 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 50778 and below same could see a test of 50597 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 51263, a move above could see prices testing 51567.
Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 50597-51567.
Gold prices retreated as a firmer dollar and elevated U.S. Treasury yields weighed on the appeal of non-yielding bullion.
The dollar surged to a two-decade high on growing concerns over slowing economic growth and U.S. interest rate hikes.
Two of the Federal Reserve's policy hawks pushed back on the view that the U.S. central bank missed the boat on the fight against stubborn inflation.

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -1.68% at 61497 as the dollar scaled a two-decade high and yields on ten-year benchmark debt hit 3.18 percent for the first time since Nov 2018 as investors priced in the prospect of aggressive policy tightening by global central banks. Germany's 10-year bond yield hit a new highest level since 2014 after hawkish policymaker Robert Holzmann said that the ECB should hike interest rates three times this year to combat inflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week that a 75-bps rate hike is not under active consideration. However, market participants seem convinced that the U.S. central bank would need to take a more drastic action to curb soaring inflation, with a further 200 bps of hikes priced in for the rest of 2022. The U.S. Federal Reserve can stick to half point interest rate hikes for the next two to three meetings then assess how the economy and inflation are responding before deciding whether further rises are needed, the Atlanta Fed president said. The half point increase approved by the Fed last week "is already a pretty aggressive move. I don't think we need to be moving even more aggressively," Raphael Bostic said in comments that appear to rule out a larger three-quarter point hike. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 9.99% to settled at 16149 while prices down -1051 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 60891 and below same could see a test of 60284 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 62377, a move above could see prices testing 63256.
Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 60284-63256.
Silver prices slipped as the dollar scaled a two-decade high and yields on ten-year benchmark debt hit 3.18 percent
Investors priced in the prospect of aggressive policy tightening by global central banks
ECB hawkish policymaker Robert Holzmann said that the ECB should hike interest rates three times this year to combat inflation.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -5.54% at 7979 amid fears that a global recession against the backdrop of the Ukraine War and China's economic woes could dampen oil demand. China's export growth slowed to the weakest in almost two years and imports were barely changed in April, adding to concerns over the economic outlook. China's crude oil imports grew nearly 7% in April from the same month a year earlier, its first rise in three months, although weakening fuel demand due to COVID-19 lockdowns has dampened throughput at Chinese refineries. The world's top crude oil buyer imported 43.03 million tonnes last month, data from the General Administration of Customs showed, equivalent to 10.5 million barrels per day (bpd). Saudi Arabia has cut prices for buyers in Asia for the first time in four months as China's disruptive lockdowns weigh on demand. Geopolitical tensions also remained on investors' radar, with Russian President Vladimir Putin defending Moscow's "special military operation" in Ukraine. In his inaugural speech on the occasion of Victory Day, Putin said it was "necessary" amid war threats from the Western nations. Money managers cut their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to May 3, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said. The speculator group cut its combined futures and options position in New York and London by 165 contracts to 258,923 during the period. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -33.86% to settled at 5493 while prices down -468 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7779 and below same could see a test of 7578 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8358, a move above could see prices testing 8736.
Trading Ideas:
Crude oil trading range for the day is 7578-8736.
Crude oil dropped amid fears that a global recession against the backdrop of the Ukraine War and China's economic woes could dampen oil demand.
China's crude oil imports grew nearly 7% in April from the same month a year earlier, its first rise in three months
Saudi Arabia has cut prices for buyers in Asia for the first time in four months as China's disruptive lockdowns weigh on demand.

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -9.45% at 564.3 as output increases and the weather turns milder than previously forecast. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states slid to 94.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May from 94.5 bcfd in April. That output has increased in recent days and compares with a monthly record of 96.1 bcfd in November 2021. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would slide from 90.6 bcfd this week to 90.4 bcfd next week and 89.5 bcfd in two weeks as the weather turns seasonally milder. The forecast for next week was higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Thursday. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants rose to 12.3 bcfd so far in May from 12.2 bcfd in April, but remains below the monthly record of 12.9 bcfd in March. U.S. natural gas production and demand will both rise in 2022 as the economy grows, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO). EIA projected that dry gas production will rise to 97.41 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2022 and 100.86 bcfd in 2023 from a record 93.57 bcfd in 2021. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -24.86% to settled at 3944 while prices down -58.9 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 535.7 and below same could see a test of 507.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 617.7, a move above could see prices testing 671.2.
Trading Ideas:
Natural gas trading range for the day is 507.2-671.2.
Natural gas dropped as output increases and the weather turns milder than previously forecast.
U.S. natgas output, demand to rise in 2022 – EIA
The U.S. EIA said utilities added 77 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended April 29.

Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.77% at 755.65 as coronavirus-induced lockdowns in top consumer China sparked concerns about demand and growth. On top of that, the world's second-largest economy has reported that factory activity contracted for a second straight month to its lowest level since February 2020. Pressuring prices further was the continued appreciation of the US dollar, making the metal more expensive for holders of other currencies. China's copper imports in April fell 4% from the same month a year earlier as demand slumped, data from the General Administration of Customs showed. The world's top metals consumer brought in 465,330 tonnes of unwrought copper and products last month, down from 484,890 tonnes in April 2021 and compared with 504,009 tonnes a month earlier, according to the customs data. April imports of copper concentrate, or partially processed copper ore, totalled 1.88 million tonnes, according to the customs data. Foreign exchange reserves in China declined by $68 billion in April to $3.120 trillion, the lowest since June 2020 and compared to market forecasts of $3.133 trillion. The inventory across the major Chinese market increased by 1,500 mt from last Friday to 121,500 mt. The inventory in Shanghai inventory increased by 1,700 mt to 84,900 mt as the imported copper flowed in continuously; the inventory in Guangdong decreased by 300 mt to 26,500 mt. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.64% to settled at 4162 while prices down -5.85 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 746 and below same could see a test of 736.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 763.3, a move above could see prices testing 771.
Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 736.4-771.
Copper dropped as coronavirus-induced lockdowns in top consumer China sparked concerns about demand and growth.
China April copper imports fall 4% on year to 465,330 tonnes
Commerzbank sees copper prices averaging $9,600/t in 2022, $9,750/t in 2023

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -3.99% at 313.1 as constantly rising US dollar index pressured the metals prices, and the market worried about economic development on high inflation and modest labour market evidenced by the latest US job market report. On the macro front, the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday showed that the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 428,000 in April, better than the market expectation of 380,000. And in the return to normal employment and high inflation, the Federal Reserve rate hikes are becoming clearer, and long-term U.S. bond yields rose again, hence the dollar index continued to hit new highs for the year. Total zinc ingots inventories across seven markets stood at 276,000 mt as of Monday May 9, down 5,100 mt from May 5 and 1,100 mt from April 29. Inventory of zinc continued to decrease this week. In Shanghai, goods can be picked up at warehouses with permit. The market was willing to receive goods under the falling zinc prices with increasing pick-ups, while the low arrivals in Shanghai helped the market to de-stock. In Tianjin, the arrivals were stable. Under the falling market and prices and improved consumption, the market inventory in Tianjin continued to decline. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.41% to settled at 1227 while prices down -13 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 306.5 and below same could see a test of 299.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 322.9, a move above could see prices testing 332.6.
Trading Ideas:
Zinc trading range for the day is 299.8-332.6.
Zinc dropped as constantly rising US dollar index pressured the metals prices, and the market worried about economic development on high inflation
Commerzbank sees zinc prices averaging $3,800/t in 2022, $3,950/t in 2023
Inventories of zinc ingot across seven major markets in China decreased 1,100 mt

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled down by -2.24% at 2273 as Sumitomo Metal sees global nickel demand for battery use at 410,000 in 2022. China manufacturing PMI which stood at 48.83, down 4.62% YoY, and the climate index was greatly impacted by the pandemic. On the supply side, the pandemic has brought transportation problems, and the supply of Jinchuan nickel in Shanghai is relatively tight. As the price difference between SHFE and LME nickel remains great, and the supply of Sumitomo, NORNICKEL, NIKKELVERK nickel and nickel briquette is still tight. In terms of nickel pig iron, the production and transportation problems of NPI plants in Liaoning and Inner Mongolia have been seriously affected, and the output is expected to fall in March. On the demand side, the cost efficiency of self-dissolved nickel briquette in the nickel sulphate plant has not recovered amid high futures prices. In addition, the output of the downstream precursor plants and the ternary cathode material plants did not contract in March thanks to their in-plant stocks, but the inventory in April will be low, hence there is possibility of production cuts. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.22% to settled at 46 while prices down -52 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 2273 and below same could see a test of 2273 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 2273, a move above could see prices testing 2273.
Trading Ideas:
Nickel trading range for the day is 2273-2273.
Nickel settled flat as Sumitomo Metal sees global nickel demand for battery use at 410,000 in 2022
Global nickel market sees surplus in February – INSG
Nickel briquette prices stood above 200,000 yuan/mt, and demand from nickel sulphate plants may contract.

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -2.61% at 233.55 as tightening COVID-19 restrictions in top metals consumer China and a recent batch of weak economic readings from major nations highlighted worries over demand for the metals. Concerns over tightening lockdowns in world's second-largest economy hurting global economic growth also dented appetite for risky assets among investors. Data showed China's factory activity contracted at a sharper pace, while U.S. factory activity grew at its slowest pace in more than 1-1/2 years in April. Foreign exchange reserves in China declined by $68 billion in April to $3.120 trillion, the lowest since June 2020 and compared to market forecasts of $3.133 trillion. It was the biggest fall in more than 5 years as the dollar appreciated to a 20-year high and foreign investors were selling Chinese stocks amid worries about the slowing economy. In China, the dynamic “zero-COVID” strategy sustains. On the whole, production resumption has been accelerated, while the downstream consumption is constrained, hence the time point for recovery is being postponed constantly. According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, unwrought aluminium and aluminium semis exports totalled about 596,900 mt in April 2022, an increase of 0.42% MoM and up 36.49% YoY. In January-April, unwrought aluminium and aluminium semis exports stood at 2,225,200 mt, up 29.2% from January-April last year. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.79% to settled at 2722 while prices down -6.25 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 231 and below same could see a test of 228.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 238.1, a move above could see prices testing 242.7.
Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 228.5-242.7.
Aluminium dropped as tightening COVID-19 restrictions in China and a recent batch of weak economic readings from major nations highlighted worries over demand.
Data showed China's factory activity contracted at a sharper pace
Commerzbank sees aluminium prices averaging $3,025/tonne in 2022, $3,350/tonne in 2023

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 3.08% at 1120.1 as the harvest is expected to be almost the same as last year's in Barabanki area but harvesting this year is expected to be delayed. Crop growth is poor this year compared with last year despite use of fertiliser. The plant is about 25% less than the total crop, water is being felt after every three days. Prices gained on reports that due to poor prices farmers has shifted to other crops resulting lower production. Germany's BASF said it would have to stop production if natural gas supplies fell to less than half its needs, as the world's largest chemicals group warned of the damage to its operations from Europe's power crunch. Mentha farming has lost its allure in Uttar Pradesh as farmers struggle without stable price, MSP and government support. High input costs and lack of support price have drastically brought down the return of farmers who have already been struggling to increase their incomes. Prices gains amid loss in production and improvement in demand while monsoon is yet to be seen as last year heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season came like a disaster for farmer. FMCG industry reels under extraordinary inflationary pressures, experts believe it will continue to grow in both volume and value, but margins will get squeezed. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -15.9 Rupees to end at 1201.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.33% to settled at 1036 while prices up 33.5 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1087.6 and below same could see a test of 1055 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1140.4, a move above could see prices testing 1160.6.
Trading Ideas:
Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1055-1160.6.
In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -15.9 Rupees to end at 1201.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.
Mentha oil prices gained as the harvest is expected to be almost the same as last year's in Barabanki area but harvesting to be delayed.
Crop growth is poor this year compared with last year despite use of fertiliser.
The plant is about 25% less than the total crop, water is being felt after every three days.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.72% at 8254 as new season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season. As per first advance estimates by the Govt for 2021/22 season, the production of turmeric is pegged at 11.76 lakh tonnes in 2021-22 against 11.24 lt in 2020-21. As per govt data, turmeric exports in Jan 2022 is down by 25% m/m at 10,600 tonnes Vs 14275 tonnes in Dec 2021. In Feb, turmeric exports recorded lower by 17% on year at 10400 tonnes vs 12,575 tonnes while in FY 2021/22 (Apr-Feb), exports down 20% at 1.37 lakh tons compared to last year but higher by 8.3% compared with 5-year average. Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones. The farmers, who incurred losses during this period due to low price, are hoping to get good price this year, so that they could clear their dues to some extent. The market sentiment is buoyant mainly since the ending stocks are expected to be 17-18 lakh bags (50 kg each) this year against 25 lakh bags last year. Spices Board data showed turmeric production this year being projected at 11.01 lakh tonnes against 11.78 lakh tonnes last year, mainly on the output being affected in Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Haryana. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8527.05 Rupees dropped -54.65 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 14.07% to settled at 10905 while prices down -60 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8176 and below same could see a test of 8098 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8374, a move above could see prices testing 8494.
Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 8098-8494.
Turmeric dropped as new season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season.
As per first advance estimates, the production of turmeric is pegged at 11.76 lakh tonnes in 2021-22 against 11.24 lt in 2020-21.
In FY 2021/22 (Apr-Feb), exports down 20% at 1.37 lakh tons compared to last year but higher by 8.3% compared with 5-year average.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8527.05 Rupees dropped -54.65 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.42% at 21110 as new crop arrivals started coming with moisture content 8% to 10%. The low yield in India will affect the global prices as the country is the largest producer of jeera or cumin in the world. Total cumin output is estimated to have declined about 35% year-on-year to 558 million tonnes in 2022. The main reason for the low yield and low acreage under cultivation is that during the cumin sowing period (October-December 2021) farmers shifted to gram and mustard whose prices were higher than that of cumin. Secondly, excess rainfall in the key cumin belts of Dwarka, Banaskantha and Kutch in Gujarat, and Jodhpur and Nagaur in Rajasthan increased the probability of wilt attack, preventing farmers from sowing the crop. Unjha mandi in Gujarat, which accounts for ~40% of India’s cumin arrivals, witnessed a 60% on-year decline in arrivals in March 2022. While arrivals for April (1st – 23rd) show ~38% increase on-year, it is on a low base of last year where there were no arrivals in the second half of April amid the pandemic. Fall in exports will put pressure on global price as well. Short supply from India, higher prices in Turkey and estimated lower production in Syria will support the bullish trend. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 251.05 Rupees to end at 21371 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 18.95% to settled at 11715 while prices down -90 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 20980 and below same could see a test of 20850 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21335, a move above could see prices testing 21560.
Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 20850-21560.
Jeera dropped as new crop arrivals started coming with moisture content 8% to 10%
The low yield in India will affect the global prices as the country is the largest producer of jeera or cumin in the world.
Total cumin output is estimated to have declined about 35% year-on-year to 558 million tonnes in 2022.
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 251.05 Rupees to end at 21371 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 1.74% at 47480 due to concerns over production, slow arrivals, better domestic and exports demand. Domestic cotton arrivals down 25% or 88.95 lakh bales so far this season to around 238 lakh bales compared to last year. The Telangana government is targeting to increase the area under cotton by 55–65 per cent to about 28–30 lakh hectares (lh) from last year’s 18 lakh hectares even as the cottonseed industry pegged the growth in cotton acreage at 15 per cent in the upcoming kharif season, starting July. As per USDA report, all cotton planted area for coming season (2022) is estimated at 12.2 million acres, up 9 percent from last year. In its latest Apr report, the USDA increase global cotton production forecast in 2021-22 to 120.2 million bales (1 US bale= 218kg), compared to 119.9 million bales in Feb 2022. India’s crop is being unchanged at 26.50 million bales. India allowed duty-free imports of cotton until Sept. 30 as prices in the local market jumped to a record high because of a drop in the production, the government said in a notification. The world's biggest producer of the fibre also removed the Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess (AIDC) on the imports, the government said. In spot market, Cotton gained by 720 Rupees to end at 47120 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.3% to settled at 3486 while prices up 810 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 46710 and below same could see a test of 45930 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 48070, a move above could see prices testing 48650.
Trading Ideas:
Cotton trading range for the day is 45930-48650.
Cotton prices rose due to concerns over production, slow arrivals, better domestic and exports demand.
India allowed duty-free imports of cotton until Sept. 30 as prices in the local market jumped to a record high because of a drop in the production.
India's cotton output is likely to fall to 33.51 million bales in the current year from last year's 35.3 million bales, estimates CAI.
In spot market, Cotton gained  by 720 Rupees to end at 47120 Rupees.

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