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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.59% at 51571 weighed by a spike in U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, and as hopes of progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks dented demand for the safe-haven metal. The benchmark U.S. 10-year yields rose above 2.5% to their highest level since May 2019 as bets of big rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to fight soaring inflation hammered bond markets. High bullion prices led some people to sell old jewellery in India amid dim physical gold demand, while a resurgence in COVID-19 cases in China hit purchases of the precious metal in the country. Dealers offered a discount of up to $53 an ounce on official domestic prices, inclusive of 10.75% import and 3% sales levies, higher than last week's discount of $45. India's gold imports could fall in March as demand is weak and there was robust flow of old jewellery and coins. In China, gold discounts stood at around $5 an ounce on global benchmark spot rates compared with $4 to $6 in the previous week. China's net gold imports via Hong Kong fell 13.7% in February from the previous month, Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department data showed. Net imports stood at 20.734 tonnes in February, compared with 24.016 tonnes in January, the data showed. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -15.96% to settled at 5414 while prices down -305 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 51366 and below same could see a test of 51161 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 51780, a move above could see prices testing 51989.
 

Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 51161-51989.
Gold prices dropped weighed by a spike in U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar
High bullion prices led some people to sell old jewellery in India amid dim physical gold demand
Indian dealers offer up to $53 discount amid weak demand


Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -1.06% at 68105 hit by a stronger dollar and a spike in U.S. Treasury yields amid bets the Federal Reserve is preparing to begin an aggressive tightening cycle. Hopes of progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks also dented demand for the safe-haven metal. Inflation and Fed tightening expectations are at the absolute forefront of market participants. The 10-year US Treasury yield today rose above 2.5 percent, its highest level since May 2019 as rising inflation risks contributed to expectations of more aggressive Fed tightening. Citi last week forecast 275 basis points of tightening this year including half-point hikes in May, June, July and September. Prices has also been impacted by hopes of a breakthrough in Ukraine-Russia talks. Russia and Ukraine will restart face-to-face peace negotiations today after the former signaled that it may scale down its war and aims to concentrate on eastern Ukraine. Ukraine President Zelenskyy also said he wants to make a deal with Moscow over Donbas and he is willing to discuss adopting a neutral status too. The Donbas region has been partly controlled by Russian-backed separatists since 2014. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.82% to settled at 5931 while prices down -731 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 67762 and below same could see a test of 67418 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 68508, a move above could see prices testing 68910.
Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 67418-68910.
Silver dropped hit by a stronger dollar and a spike in U.S. Treasury yields amid bets the Federal Reserve is preparing to begin an aggressive tightening cycle.
Hopes of progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks also dented demand for the safe-haven metal.
Inflation and Fed tightening expectations are at the absolute forefront of market participants.


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -5.58% at 8137 as China began its most extensive lockdown in two years, raising concerns over weaker fuel demand. Ongoing peace talks between Russia and Ukraine and OPEC's next ministerial meeting on Thursday also remain on investors' radar. U.S. oil exports have climbed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and barrels of domestic oil that would typically go to the Cushing, Oklahoma, storage hub are instead being exported via the Gulf Coast. The invasion threw the oil market into disarray, as companies stopped buying Russian oil and prices skyrocketed. Worldwide buyers are looking to source crude wherever they can, and exports have risen in recent weeks from the United States, the world's largest crude producer. The United Arab Emirates will work with OPEC+ to make sure the energy market is stable, UAE energy minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said at an industry event. Money managers raised their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to March 22, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said. The speculator group raise its combined futures and options position in New York and London by 4,764 contracts to 273,515 during the period. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -27.17% to settled at 5492 while prices down -481 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7911 and below same could see a test of 7686 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8422, a move above could see prices testing 8708.
Trading Ideas:
Crude oil trading range for the day is 7686-8708.
Crude oil dropped as China began its most extensive lockdown in two years, raising concerns over weaker fuel demand.
U.S. oil exports surge, drawing crude away from storage hub
UAE will work with OPEC+ to make sure energy market is stable


Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -0.89% at 422.6 on a drop in crude prices and a small decline in demand next week that should allow utilities to inject gas into storage. That price decline came despite forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand this week than previously expected that will likely force utilities to pull gas from storage after injecting it during last week's milder weather. The U.S. price decline also came despite rising global demand for gas to replace Russian fuel as Russia's invasion of Ukraine keeps U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports near record highs and European gas prices about six times over U.S. futures. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. lower 48 states was up 93.3 bcfd so far in March from 92.5 bcfd in February as more oil and gas wells return to service after freezing over the winter. That compares with a monthly record of 96.2 bcfd in December. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would drop from 106.0 bcfd this week to 98.4 bcfd next week as the weather turns seasonally milder. The forecast for this week was higher and the forecast for next week was lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Friday. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.37% to settled at 7296 while prices down -3.8 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 414.6 and below same could see a test of 406.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 432.2, a move above could see prices testing 441.9.
Trading Ideas:
Natural gas trading range for the day is 406.7-441.9.
Natural gas slid on a drop in crude prices and a small decline in demand next week that should allow utilities to inject gas into storage.
That price decline came despite forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand this week than previously expected
EIA said U.S. utilities pulled 51 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended March 18.



Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.42% at 822.3 as China copper inventory fell to 148,800 mt across major markets, which has been falling for some time. The shipments of smelters and terminal demand were both affected by the pandemic, resulting in even thinner transactions. COVID-19 curbs in top consumer China clouded demand prospects and added to concerns about supply disruptions. Heightened quarantine measures in China, with the financial hub of Shanghai launching a two-stage lockdown of the city of 26 million people, could further dampen growth outlook for the world's second-biggest economy. Profit growth at China's industrial firms accelerated in January-February in line with other signs of momentum in the economy. A Peruvian community has threatened to oppose the expansion of MMG Ltd's major Las Bambas copper mine, hinting at a new flashpoint for the project shortly after the state approved the increase in production. The global world refined copper market showed a 92,000 tonnes deficit in December, compared with a 123,000 tonnes deficit in November, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. For the 12 months of the year, the market saw a shortage of 475,000 tonnes compared with a 484,000 tonne shortfall a year earlier, the ICSG said. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.76% to settled at 3413 while prices up 3.4 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 815 and below same could see a test of 807.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 826.5, a move above could see prices testing 830.5.
 

Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 807.5-830.5.
Copper recovered to gains as China copper inventory fell to 148,800 mt across major markets, which has been falling for some time.
COVID-19 curbs in top consumer China clouded demand prospects and added to concerns about supply disruptions.
Profit growth at China's industrial firms accelerated in January-February in line with other signs of momentum in the economy


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.47% at 339.65 as the global zinc market deficit declined to 28,400 tonnes in January from a revised shortfall of 45,500 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a deficit of 37,300 tonnes in December. Around 13.5 million tonnes of zinc is produced and consumed each year. Total zinc inventories across seven markets in China stood at 273,900 mt as of March 28, up 1,300 mt from March 25, down 3,000 mt from March 21. Domestic inventory reduced. In general, although the arrivals had been affected by the pandemic to some extent, there were a small number of arrivals last week. Among them, there were only a small number of arrivals in the Shanghai market with restrictions due to the pandemic. But under the impact of the procurement demand on the export volume, inventories of Shanghai market still reduced slightly. China's financial hub of Shanghai launched a two-stage lockdown of its 26 million residents, closing bridges and tunnels and restricting highway traffic in a scramble to contain surging COVID-19 cases. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.51% to settled at 1063 while prices up 1.6 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 336.5 and below same could see a test of 333.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 341.8, a move above could see prices testing 343.8.
Trading Ideas:
Zinc trading range for the day is 333.2-343.8.
Zinc prices recovered from lows as the global zinc market deficit declined to 28,400 tonnes in January
Total zinc inventories across seven markets in China stood at 273,900 mt down 3,000 mt from March 21.
China's financial hub of Shanghai launched a two-stage lockdown, closing bridges and tunnels and restricting highway traffic in a scramble to contain surging COVID-19 cases.


Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled down by -6.35% at 2510.2 due to profit-taking as COVID-19 curbs in top metals consumer China clouded demand prospects and added to concerns about supply disruptions, while a firm U.S. dollar also weighed on prices. Heightened coronavirus restrictions in China, with the financial hub of Shanghai launching a two-stage lockdown, could further dampen growth outlook for the world's second-biggest economy. Market supply has been relatively tight for lack of imported goods for quite some time. The London Metal Exchange's (LME) benchmark nickel surged 15% to hit its upper trading limit, reversing direction and climbing for the first time since trading resumed last week. LME benchmark nickel slumped for several days in very low volumes and repeatedly hit its lower trading limits after trade was restarted after a break to calm the market. The global nickel market saw a surplus of 6,000 tonnes in January compared with a deficit of 5,300 tonnes in the same period last year, data from the International Nickel Study Group (INSG) showed. Overall there was a deficit in the nickel market of 157,100 tonnes last year compared with a surplus of 103,700 tonnes in 2021, Lisbon-based INSG added. Western sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine sparked concerns over the metal supply and supercharged existing upward momentum in the market. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.02% to settled at 193 while prices down -170.1 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 2474.6 and below same could see a test of 2439 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 2565.4, a move above could see prices testing 2620.6.
Trading Ideas:
Nickel trading range for the day is 2439-2620.6.
Nickel dropped to profit-taking as COVID-19 curbs in top metals consumer China clouded demand prospects
LME nickel surged 15% to hit its upper trading limit, reversing direction and climbing for the first time since trading resumed last week.
Nickel briquette prices stood above 200,000 yuan/mt, and demand from nickel sulphate plants may contract.


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.46% at 290.1 as COVID-19 curbs in top consumer China clouded demand prospects and added to concerns about supply disruptions. On the supply side, the output in Q1 is unlikely to catch up with that in 2021 despite accelerated production resumption. On the demand side, downstream production was disrupted by the sudden outbreak of pandemic, and domestic inventory rose slightly from last Thursday. The shipments of aluminium ingot and billet both dropped during this period owing to the pandemic. On the macro front, the US and Europe reached a gas supply agreement for reducing energy dependence on Russia, while the US plans to release some of its oil reserves, somewhat suppressing energy prices. Australia supplies almost 20% of Russia’s alumina, the key ingredient for producing aluminum, and the move aims to inflict more economic pain for the Krelim over its decision to invade Ukraine. Stocks of aluminium in LME-registered warehouses were at 704,850 tonnes, its lowest level since 2007, while those in Shanghai exchange warehouses fell 4.2% to 333,823 tonnes last week. China's aluminium imports in the first two months of 2022 fell 26.2% from a year earlier, data from the General Administration of Customs showed. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.83% to settled at 2576 while prices down -1.35 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 288.1 and below same could see a test of 286 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 292.4, a move above could see prices testing 294.6.
Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 286-294.6.# Aluminium dropped as COVID-19 curbs in top consumer China clouded demand prospects and added to concerns about supply disruptions.
On the supply side, the output in Q1 is unlikely to catch up with that in 2021 despite accelerated production resumption
The shipments of aluminium ingot and billet both dropped during this period owing to the pandemic.


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 1.86% at 1072.1 as this time the farmers are planting less mentha crop due to lack of water. Farmers have started buying Mentha roots for sowing Mentha in their fields. However, upside seen limited as the war between Ukraine and Russia having a bad impact on prices. There is a demand for Mentha of about 200 crores in Russia and Ukraine. For this reason, the mentha traders are also worried about the fight between these two countries. Mentha worth six thousand crores is exported every year from all over the country. India is the largest producer and exporter of Mentha Oil and its derivatives. Every year about 20 thousand tons of mentha oil and related products are exported from here to America, China, Europe and South America. Fragrance Market in U.A.E. to Grow at 8.3% CAGR Through 2030, says P&S Intelligence. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.A.E. fragrance market was negatively affected. The production of non-essential goods was curtailed, while people were also forced inside their homes. The resulting slump in business, media & entertainment, and social activities reduced the demand for fragrances in the country. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 2 Rupees to end at 1182.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.11% to settled at 1029 while prices up 19.6 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1052.9 and below same could see a test of 1033.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1085.7, a move above could see prices testing 1099.2.
Trading Ideas:
Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1033.6-1099.2.
In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 2 Rupees to end at 1182.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.
Mentha oil prices gained as this time the farmers are planting less mentha crop due to lack of water.
Farmers have started buying Mentha roots for sowing Mentha in their fields.
However, upside seen limited as the war between Ukraine and Russia having a bad impact on prices.

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.64% at 8872 as turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones. New season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season. In the first 9 months (April-December) of FY 2021-22, exports declined by 20.7% over the previous year to 1,16,400 tonnes, but 8.8% higher than the 5-year average. The arrival of the new crop has started in the markets of Telangana and Maharashtra. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. The farmers, who incurred losses during this period due to low price, are hoping to get good price this year, so that they could clear their dues to some extent. The market sentiment is buoyant mainly since the ending stocks are expected to be 17-18 lakh bags (50 kg each) this year against 25 lakh bags last year. Spices Board data showed turmeric production this year being projected at 11.01 lakh tonnes against 11.78 lakh tonnes last year, mainly on the output being affected in Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Haryana. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8690 Rupees gained 19.4 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.11% to settled at 10610 while prices up 56 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8768 and below same could see a test of 8666 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8968, a move above could see prices testing 9066.
Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 8666-9066.
Turmeric gained as crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones.
New season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season.
In the first 9 months (April-December) of FY 2021-22, exports declined by 20.7% over the previous year to 1,16,400 tonnes.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8690 Rupees gained 19.4 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.14% at 21705 as there were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand. The export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.44 lakh tonnes in the previous year. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. In 2021-22, the area under cumin in Gujarat is only 3.07 lakh hectares as compared to 4.69 lakh hectares in the same period last year and production is expected to decline by 41% to 2.37 lakh tonnes as compared to last year's 4 lakh tonnes as per second advance estimates. The area under jeera has decreased by about 30% in Rajasthan this year, to 5.39 lakh hectares (lh) from 7.7 lh last year, Spices Board officials confirmed. According to the data released by the commerce department, cumin exports in January 2022 increased by 19% to 14,725 tonnes as compared to 12,385 tonnes in December 2021. Carry-forward stocks would be approximately 25 lakh bags. Last year's jeera crop was 93 lakh bags, with a carryover stock of 20 lakh bags. The decline in the jeera area is more pronounced in Rajasthan, where farmers have shifted to mustard because prices for the oilseed crop were favourable during the sowing season. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -84.2 Rupees to end at 21215.8 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.56% to settled at 10680 while prices up 30 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 21510 and below same could see a test of 21320 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21830, a move above could see prices testing 21960.
Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 21320-21960.
Jeera gained as there were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand.
Export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes
However, there were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand.
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -84.2 Rupees to end at 21215.8 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.36% at 41720 on profit booking after prices crossed earlier 43000 level bolstered by strong demand as worsening drought conditions in key growing regions such as Texas raised concerns over a shortage in supply. The arrival of cotton in the country is continuously declining, at present the daily arrivals are 65 to 75 lakh bales which will further decrease in the coming week. At the moment, there are very few ginning mills running in the country, the stock of best quality cotton is very low at the moment, similarly the stock of Binola is also low. The price of cotton yarn is continuously increasing, but there is no major demand in the domestic market and export market, due to which the Spinners' Mills Association has cut production, due to which cotton industries will benefit in the long run. Spinning mills are buying cotton at higher prices as the balance sheet of cotton is becoming tighter continuously. In the current year, due to quality variation in the production of cotton from the beginning, there was a possibility of a sharp decline in the production and given the current arrivals and stock positions, there is no possibility of increasing the production of cotton in the country by 280 to 290 lakh bales. In spot market, Cotton gained by 2280 Rupees to end at 43260 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.98% to settled at 5791 while prices down -150 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 41130 and below same could see a test of 40540 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 42690, a move above could see prices testing 43660.
Trading Ideas:
Cotton trading range for the day is 40540-43660.
Cotton dropped on profit booking after prices crossed earlier 43000 level bolstered by strong demand
The arrival of cotton is continuously declining, at present the daily arrivals are 65 to 75 lakh bales which will further decrease in the coming week.
There are very few ginning mills running in the country, the stock of best quality cotton is very low at the moment
In spot market, Cotton gained  by 2280 Rupees to end at 43260 Rupees.

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