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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -1.41% at 51564 as ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine reduced demand for safe-haven assets, while bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve may raise interest rates for the first time in three years added to pressure on gold. The Fed is expected to raise borrowing costs by a quarter of a percentage point at the end of its two-day meeting on Wednesday. The impending announcement has kept U.S. 10-year treasury yields elevated and put pressure on gold since rising U.S. interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. New economic projections from the Federal Reserve this week will show how far and how fast policymakers see interest rates rising this year, in a first test of the impact of the Ukraine war and surging inflation on the coming shift in U.S. monetary policy. The Fed's policy-setting committee is expected to raise borrowing costs by a quarter of a percentage point at the end of its two-day meeting on Wednesday, a session that will set the tone for the central bank's reaction to a war-driven energy shock that is colliding with an end-of-pandemic economic reopening and strong consumer demand. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.24% to settled at 8762 while prices down -740 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 51162 and below same could see a test of 50761 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 52022, a move above could see prices testing 52481.
Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 50761-52481.
Gold extended its slide as ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine reduced demand for safe-haven assets
Bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve may raise interest rates for the first time in three years added to pressure on gold.
U.S. 10-year treasury yields elevated and put pressure on gold


Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.75% at 68325 after U.S. Treasury yields surged overnight ahead of the impending rate decision by the U.S. central bank. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise its benchmark interest rate target range by a quarter of a percentage point when it announces its interest-rate decision on Wednesday. Hopes for some resolution through peace talks between Russia and Ukraine also added to woes. In a significant effort to ease the simmering tension between Russia and Ukraine, the fourth round of peace negotiations will resume today after a 'technical pause', announced the top Ukrainian official. "A technical pause has been taken in the negotiations until tomorrow. For additional work in the working subgroups and clarification of individual definitions. Negotiations continue…," said Ukrainian negotiator Mykhailo Podolyak. Producer prices in the US increased 0.8% mom in February of 2022, less than an upwardly revised 1.2% rise in January and slightly below market forecasts of 0.9%. Prices for goods jumped 2.4%, the largest advance since data were first calculated in December 2009, mainly due to an 14.8% rise in gasoline costs. In contrast, the index for fresh and dry vegetables decreased 9.4%. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.58% to settled at 6067 while prices down -519 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 67762 and below same could see a test of 67200 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 68731, a move above could see prices testing 69138.
Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 67200-69138.
Silver fell after U.S. Treasury yields surged overnight ahead of the impending rate decision by the U.S. central bank.
Hopes for some resolution through peace talks between Russia and Ukraine also added to woes.
Producer prices in the US increased 0.8% mom in February of 2022, less than an upwardly revised 1.2% rise in January


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -5.72% at 7381 as supply disruption fears eased and as surging COVID-19 cases in China spurred demand concerns. The steep decline followed a statement from Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that Moscow is in favour of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal resuming as soon as possible. The talks to revive the nuclear accord, which would lead to sanctions on Iran's oil sector being lifted and allow Tehran to resume crude exports, had recently stalled due to Russian demands. Meanwhile, Western sanctions against Russia have failed to deter China and India from buying Russian crude. In addition to the Russia-Ukraine crisis, spare crude production capacity remains limited from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+. U.S. crude stocks in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell last week to the lowest since July 2002, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. U.S. SPR stocks fell to 577.5 million barrels last week, the EIA said. Meanwhile, U.S. distillate stocks fell to 113.9 million barrels, the lowest since November 2014. U.S. crude stocks, gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week, the Energy Information Administration said. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -19.17% to settled at 4056 while prices down -448 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7156 and below same could see a test of 6932 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7602, a move above could see prices testing 7824.
Trading Ideas:
Crude oil trading range for the day is 6932-7824.
Crude oil prices tumbled as supply disruption fears eased and as surging COVID-19 cases in China spurred demand concerns.
Russia backs resumption of Iran nuclear deal
China posts a steep jump in COVID-19 cases


Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -1.35% at 350.6 on forecasts for milder than normal weather and lower heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected, which should allow utilities to start injecting gas into storage next week – about a week earlier than usual. That price decline came even though European gas prices shot up about 8% so far on Tuesday after Eastern Europe started pulling gas from the West. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states was on track to rise to 93.0 bcfd in March from 92.5 bcfd in February as more oil and gas wells return to service after freezing earlier in the year. With milder spring weather coming, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would drop from 109.8 bcfd this week to 94.4 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Monday. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants rose to 12.70 bcfd so far in March from 12.43 bcfd in February and a record 12.44 bcfd in January. The United States has the capacity to turn about 12.7 bcfd of gas into LNG. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -12.44% to settled at 3942 while prices down -4.8 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 343.2 and below same could see a test of 335.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 356.1, a move above could see prices testing 361.6.
Trading Ideas:
Natural gas trading range for the day is 335.8-361.6.
Natural gas slid on forecasts for milder than normal weather and lower heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected
The U.S. EIA said utilities pulled 124 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended March 4.
Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states was on track to rise to 93.4 bcfd in March from 92.5 bcfd in February



Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.76% at 790.1 as diplomatic efforts to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict calmed supply-disruption fears, while demand concerns in top consumer China also weighed on the market. Rising coronavirus infections in China and the potential damage to manufacturing activity in the country have fuelled demand worries. Concerns about slowing growth and demand globally due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine have created discounts for cash over the three-month contracts for aluminium, copper, zinc and lead. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) injected a total CNY 200 billion one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation but kept the rate unchanged at 2.85% on March 15th 2020. The central bank said the move aims to maintain the reasonable and sufficient liquidity of the banking system. The operation resulted in a net injection of CNY 100 billion in fresh funds, replacing the CNY 100 billion due to mature on the same day. The central bank also injected CNY 10 billion through seven-day reverse repos to offset same amount of such loans due on the same day, while keeping borrowing costs unchanged at 2.1%. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.58% to settled at 3016 while prices down -6.05 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 784.4 and below same could see a test of 778.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 797.3, a move above could see prices testing 804.3.
Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 778.5-804.3.
Copper dropped as diplomatic efforts to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict calmed supply-disruption fears
Demand concerns in top consumer China also weighed on the market.
PBOC injected a total CNY 200 billion one-year MLF operation but kept the rate unchanged at 2.85%


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.21% at 314.5 as demand has been affected by resurging COVID pandemic in China. In the spot market, with resurging pandemic in Jiangsu, Shenzhen, Shandong, etc., and the consumption side has been greatly affected. On the fundamentals, domestic truck drivers were required to carry a negative nucleic acid testing result to work, hence the downstream processing sector placed increasingly less orders amid logistics problems, and relied on raw material stocks at the moment or purchased on rigid demand. Total zinc inventories across seven markets in China stood at 285,700 mt as of Mar 14, up 500 mt from Mar 11, down 1,300 mt from Mar 7. Domestic inventories continue to increase. In Shanghai market, arrivals were relatively stable, while the downstream resumption had not greater improved with accumulative inventory. In Guangdong market, downstream enterprises mainly destocked. Due to slight increase of arrivals, overall inventory accumulated. In Tianjin market, the market arrivals were relatively normal, while consumption gradually improved, inventory reduced. Concerns about slowing growth and demand globally due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine have created discounts for cash over the three-month contracts for aluminium, copper, zinc and lead. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.45% to settled at 773 while prices down -0.65 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 310.4 and below same could see a test of 306.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 317.3, a move above could see prices testing 320.1.
Trading Ideas:
Zinc trading range for the day is 306.3-320.1.
Zinc dropped as demand has been affected by resurging COVID pandemic in China.
Demand concerns in top consumer China also weighed on the market.
In the spot market, with resurging pandemic in Jiangsu, Shenzhen, Shandong, etc., and the consumption side has been greatly affected.


Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled up by 1.45% at 2856.4 as the refined nickel supply was still insufficient for the demand last week. China's producer prices in February rose at the slowest annual pace since June, official data showed, amid skyrocketing commodity prices, an uncertain global economy and resurgent domestic COVID-19 outbreaks. The producer price index (PPI) increased 8.8% on year, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said in a statement, easing from 9.1% growth in January. China's efforts to stabilise commodity prices face new challenges due to high prices for coal, natural gas and iron ore because of COVID-19, a monetary policy shift in big economies and geopolitical conflicts, an official at the state economic planner said. Japan's strong economic growth in the final quarter of 2021 was downgraded in a revised estimate, while pressures from record COVID-19 infections and rising energy costs are heightening risks of a contraction this quarter. The London Metal Exchange intervened to calm the nickel market after prices rocketed in a matter of hours to records of over $100,000 a tonne. China's Shanghai Futures Exchange will suspend the trading of some nickel contracts for one day, beginning from the night trading session on March 9. Russia's President Vladimir Putin signed a decree restricting the import and export of goods and raw materials "to ensure the security of the Russian Federation", but specific materials were not identified. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.45% to settled at 272 while prices up 40.7 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 2801.5 and below same could see a test of 2746.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 2919.8, a move above could see prices testing 2983.2.
Trading Ideas:
Nickel trading range for the day is 2746.6-2983.2.
Nickel recovered as the refined nickel supply was still insufficient for the demand
Shanghai exchange to resume trading of some nickel futures from March 11
The London Metal Exchange intervened to calm the nickel market after prices rocketed over $100,000 a tonne.


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -1.84% at 266.35 amid demand worries in top metals' consumer China on soaring COVID-19 cases. However, downside seen limited buoyed by lingering supply concerns triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Russian and Ukrainian delegations held a fourth round of talks on Monday but no new progress was announced. Meanwhile, European Union member states agreed on a fourth package of sanctions against Russia. Mainland China posted a steep jump in daily COVID-19 cases on Tuesday, with new symptomatic cases more than doubling from a day earlier to a two-year high as a virus outbreak expanded rapidly in the country's northeast. China's aluminium production fell 1.4% in the first two months of 2022 from the corresponding period last year, official data showed. Primary aluminium output in China, the world's largest aluminium producer, was 6.33 million tonnes in January and February combined, the National Bureau of Statistics said. This compares with 6.45 million tonnes in the first two months of 2021. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) injected a total CNY 200 billion one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation but kept the rate unchanged at 2.85% on March 15th 2020. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.39% to settled at 2022 while prices down -5 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 262.1 and below same could see a test of 257.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 270.5, a move above could see prices testing 274.7.
Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 257.9-274.7.
Aluminium dropped amid demand worries in top metals' consumer China on soaring COVID-19 cases.
However, downside seen limited buoyed by lingering supply concerns triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict
China Jan – Feb aluminium output falls 1.4% y/y to 6.33 mln tonnes


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.42% at 1033.3 as this time the farmers are planting less mentha crop due to lack of water. Farmers have started buying Mentha roots for sowing Mentha in their fields. However, upside seen limited as the war between Ukraine and Russia having a bad impact on prices. There is a demand for Mentha of about 200 crores in Russia and Ukraine. For this reason, the mentha traders are also worried about the fight between these two countries. Mentha worth six thousand crores is exported every year from all over the country. India is the largest producer and exporter of Mentha Oil and its derivatives. Every year about 20 thousand tons of mentha oil and related products are exported from here to America, China, Europe and South America. Fragrance Market in U.A.E. to Grow at 8.3% CAGR Through 2030, says P&S Intelligence. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.A.E. fragrance market was negatively affected. The production of non-essential goods was curtailed, while people were also forced inside their homes. The resulting slump in business, media & entertainment, and social activities reduced the demand for fragrances in the country. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -2.6 Rupees to end at 1129.6 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.3% to settled at 803 while prices up 4.3 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1023.9 and below same could see a test of 1014.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1038.8, a move above could see prices testing 1044.3.
Trading Ideas:
Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1014.5-1044.3.
In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -2.6 Rupees to end at 1129.6 Rupees per 360 kgs.
Mentha oil prices rallied as this time the farmers are planting less mentha crop due to lack of water.
Farmers have started buying Mentha roots for sowing Mentha in their fields.
However, upside seen limited as the war between Ukraine and Russia having a bad impact on prices.


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -2.32% at 8584 as new season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season. Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones. In the first 9 months (April-December) of FY 2021-22, exports declined by 20.7% over the previous year to 1,16,400 tonnes, but 8.8% higher than the 5-year average. The arrival of the new crop has started in the markets of Telangana and Maharashtra. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. The farmers, who incurred losses during this period due to low price, are hoping to get good price this year, so that they could clear their dues to some extent. The market sentiment is buoyant mainly since the ending stocks are expected to be 17-18 lakh bags (50 kg each) this year against 25 lakh bags last year. Spices Board data showed turmeric production this year being projected at 11.01 lakh tonnes against 11.78 lakh tonnes last year, mainly on the output being affected in Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Haryana. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8906.65 Rupees dropped -34.55 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.16% to settled at 12860 while prices down -204 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8478 and below same could see a test of 8370 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8766, a move above could see prices testing 8946.
Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 8370-8946.
Turmeric dropped as new season turmeric is arriving in the market and exports are normal this season.
Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones.
In the first 9 months (April-December) of FY 2021-22, exports declined by 20.7% over the previous year to 1,16,400 tonnes.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8906.65 Rupees dropped -34.55 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -3.44% at 20355 as the export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.44 lakh tonnes in the previous year. Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations. However, there were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand. In 2021-22, the area under cumin in Gujarat is only 3.07 lakh hectares as compared to 4.69 lakh hectares in the same period last year and production is expected to decline by 41% to 2.37 lakh tonnes as compared to last year's 4 lakh tonnes as per second advance estimates. The area under jeera has decreased by about 30% in Rajasthan this year, to 5.39 lakh hectares (lh) from 7.7 lh last year, Spices Board officials confirmed. According to the data released by the commerce department, cumin exports in January 2022 increased by 19% to 14,725 tonnes as compared to 12,385 tonnes in December 2021. Carry-forward stocks would be approximately 25 lakh bags. Last year's jeera crop was 93 lakh bags, with a carryover stock of 20 lakh bags. The decline in the jeera area is more pronounced in Rajasthan, where farmers have shifted to mustard because prices for the oilseed crop were favourable during the sowing season. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -257.6 Rupees to end at 20636.85 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.12% to settled at 12633 while prices down -725 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 20040 and below same could see a test of 19730 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 20920, a move above could see prices testing 21490.
Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 19730-21490.
Jeera settled down as the export of cumin in April-January declined by 23% year-on-year to 1.88 lakh tonnes
Pressure also seen due to tensions between Ukraine and Russia which may disrupt shipments of spices to Europe and other destinations.
However, there were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand.
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -257.6 Rupees to end at 20636.85 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.24% at 37960 amid renewed COVID-19 lockdowns in top consumer China weighed on sentiment. Financial hubs Shanghai and Shenzhen have been locked down as COVID-19 cases surge in China. Speculators cut their net long position in cotton futures by 4,844 contracts ending at 65,642 in the week to March 8, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed. on China's state planner said it had issued a 400,000 tonnes quota for cotton imports with a sliding tariff rate. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report showed net sales rose 2% from the previous week and 51% from the prior four-week average. World cotton stocks were trimmed 1.74 MMT to 84.31 MMT, the lowest in a 3-Year due to a lighter production forecast from India, from January’s forecast of 85.01million 480-pound bales and 2020-21’s Ending Stock of 88.41million 480-pound bales. The world stocks-to-use was figured at 66.3%, compared to 67.7% last month. India cotton production has fallen for a third consecutive year and is estimated at 26.5 million 480-Pound Bales for the crop year 2021-22 versus USDA’s January 2022 estimate of 27.5 million 480-pound bales and 2020-21’s production of 27.6 480-pound bales. India cotton ending stocks will fall by -40.18% to a 3-Year low at 8.04 million 480-pound bales for 2021-22. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -60 Rupees to end at 37920 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.01% to settled at 5672 while prices down -90 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 37680 and below same could see a test of 37400 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 38140, a move above could see prices testing 38320.
Trading Ideas:
Cotton trading range for the day is 37400-38320.
Cotton fell amid renewed COVID-19 lockdowns in top consumer China weighed on sentiment.
Speculators cut their net long position in cotton futures by 4,844 contracts ending at 65,642 in the week to March 8.
China's state planner said it had issued a 400,000 tonnes quota for cotton imports with a sliding tariff rate.
In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -60 Rupees to end at 37920 Rupees.

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