Markets likely to get flat-to-negative start ahead of expiry of derivative contracts
Indian markets halted a four-day winning streak on Wednesday, as weakness in financial and IT shares outweighed strength in oil & gas stocks in a choppy session. Today, domestic equity markets are likely to get flat-to-negative start tailing weakness in global peers. Trading may remain volatile in today’s session ahead of the monthly expiry of derivative contracts. Traders will be concerned with a private report that Inflationary pressures are likely to continue and force the RBI to further hike interest rates during the course of the current fiscal but the tighter financial conditions can impact growth. The report said there are reasons to be optimistic on the growth front but factors like tighter financial conditions can have an impact on the GDP expansion. There will be some cautiousness with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s statement that any increase in GST rates under the rate rationalisation exercise is intended to make up for the ‘inefficiencies’ in the value chain. Stating that all states are aware of the potential impact of rate rationalisation on inflation, Sitharaman said any increase in tax rates will also make up for the tax burden, which is being borne by some other activities in that value chain. Traders may take note of report that RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das emphasised the need for proper interpretation of data to facilitate more informed decision making as it will bring clarity in communication from decision makers as well as formation of rational expectations from market participants. Meanwhile, the Securities and Exchange Board of India's (Sebi's) board allowed foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to trade in exchange-traded commodity derivatives. The move, it said, will enhance liquidity and market depth, as well as promote efficient price discovery. There will be some buzz in the metal stocks with a private report that after back-to-back downward corrections, steel prices are expected to rise from July due to high input costs. Oil & gas sector stocks will be in focus as the Union Cabinet decided to give marketing freedom to domestic crude oil producers, allowing them to sell petroleum to any company in the local market. There will be some reaction in coal industry stocks as India's coal ministry said it sought assistance from the World Bank and other global institutions for re-purposing its abandoned coal mines to make them environmentally stable and suitable for commercial purpose.
The US markets ended mostly lower on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized on the central banks' hawkish stance to tame high inflation. Asian markets are trading mostly in red on Thursday following a choppy session on Wall Street.
Back home, Indian equity benchmarks ended in red on Wednesday in line with tepid global markets as inflation and recession fears continued to hurt sentiment. Markets made gap-down opening as continued selling in FIIs weighted on market sentiments. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold shares worth a net Rs 1,244.44 crore on June 28. Some cautiousness came in with a private report that after a gap, the prices of select varieties of pulses have started rising for the past few days due to a delay in the onset of the southwest monsoon over major growing regions of Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Gujarat. Some concerns also came after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its latest data has showed that the growth in Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs) deposits moderated to 10 per cent year-on-year in March 2022, compared to an increase of 11.9 per cent a year ago. During 2021-2022, current, savings and term deposits rose by 10.9 per cent, 13.3 per cent and 7.9 per cent, respectively. However, key gauges trimmed most of their losses in late afternoon deals, as traders took some support as Union Minister Bhanu Pratap Singh Verma emphasised the Micro, Small & Medium Enterprise (MSME) sector's important role in making India a $5-trillion economy and said that the government will remove all the barriers in credit flow to this sector. He also said that the government was also committed to develop a better system of redressal and debt facilities. Some support also came as the GST Council approved changes in tax rates on some goods and services while allowing states to issue an e-way bill for intra-state movement of gold and precious stones. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 150.48 points or 0.28% to 53,026.97 and the CNX Nifty was down by 51.10 points or 0.32% to 15,799.10.a
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