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Lowest weekly close in seven months; Nifty below 17000

We had a nervous start to the week to challenge the previous swing low of 16850. Fortunately, the buying emerged at lower levels which was then followed by an extended rebound in next two sessions, ahead of key FED policy. On Thursday, suddenly markets took a U-turn from the strong resistance zone of 17200 – 17250. On Friday, the sell-off aggravated post the midsession, courtesy to news flow regarding Government’s ‘Securities Transaction Tax (STT)’ on selling of Futures and Options created some tumult towards the fag end of the session. Adding to this, the weak start in European bourses dragged Nifty below 17000 to mark lowest weekly close in last seven months.

There’s still no respite for the bulls as any intermediate bounce is getting sold into and prices continue to move in a lower top-lower bottom formation. Globally, the mounting concerns over a few banks and now domestically, the hiking of STT has dampened the market sentiment.  The market is currently oversold, but such financial issues can be very disruptive at times. Hence, traders should ideally avoid aggressive bets for a while. From a technical point of view, we are not too far from the sacrosanct support zone of 16850 - 16800, which coincides with the September month swing low and 89-weekly EMA. We continue to remain hopeful but at the same time for momentum traders, it’s better to wait for some price confirmation once all this negativity subsides on global as well as domestic front. On the higher side, 17200-17250 has been acting as a sturdy wall and the bulls desperately need a convincing breakout beyond this to make a comeback. The volatility is likely to be on the higher side and the apt strategy would be to keep a close eye on global developments and take one step at a time. In case of relief, traders can find ample opportunities in the beaten spaces and for investors, this decline would provide opportunity to accumulate quality stocks in a staggered manner. 

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