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Bullion Outlook

• Gold prices moved to four week’s lows as better-than-expected US economic numbers paved the way for the Federal reserve to hike interest rates. The US retails sales numbers marked its best reading since February 2022 and jumped to 3% against last month’s reading of -1.1%

• Silver prices slid more that 1% as the US 10-year yield rallied sharply amid expectation of higher rates by the Fed

• Market participants are now pricing that rates will rise towards 5-5.25% in the near term. The strong labour market, higher than expected CPI data and recovery in retail sales numbers may force the US Fed to push the rates above 5%

• Gold prices have breached the key 20 day EMA support at 56500, suggesting weakness in the trend. Hence, as long as prices trade below 56500 they are expected to slide towards 55700

• MCX silver is likely to follow the yellow metal and move towards 64800

Base Metal Outlook

• Aluminium fell to its four-week lows as surging inventories at LME approved warehouses continued this week

• Copper futures closed with losses on Wednesday as a rise in the dollar index after strong US retail sales numbers paved the way for higher and longer interest rate by the Fed

• Meanwhile, rising supply concerns from Peru and Chile have limited the price decline

• Copper is expected to trade with a positive bias amid lower stocks and hopes of more support from the Chinese government to revive the property sector

• In MCX, prices are trading near key support at 763. As long as they hold above 763, prices would move again towards 772-775 zone. On the flip side, a close below 763 would negate the bullish bias

Energy Outlook

• Oil prices declined almost 1% on Wednesday after EIA reported a higherthan-expected jump in US crude inventories by 16.28 million barrels. Oil prices were already under pressure after the US government announced release of 26 million barrels of oil from its reserves

• Further, the rally in the dollar moved above its five week high after better than expected US retails sales number raised the prospects of rates staying at higher levels for longer

• The eight straight week build up in inventories along with rally in dollar has diminished the bullish outlook of the oil that arose after EIA raised its demand outlook for 2023

• MCX Crude oil is hovering near the 20 day EMA support at 6440. A move below 6440 would weaken the price towards 6350

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