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Crisil in its latest report has said that riding on a broad-based economic recovery and stronger, cleaner balance sheets, lenders are expected to see their credit growing at 15 per cent this fiscal and the next. It expects credit growth this year to be driven more by retail and MSME segments, while corporate credit could be the larger contributor next fiscal. Credit growth so far this fiscal has printed in at around 18 per cent, which is a decadal high. Already, large lenders have seen corporates flocking to banks for funds for capital expenditure and also for working capital as the demand side of the economy is faring better.

The agency said that its forecast is based on an expected 7 per cent GDP growth this fiscal, as well as the expected continuation of the credit push from government's infrastructure spends, higher working capital demand in a high-inflation environment, and some substitution of debt capital market borrowings. The report admits that even though growth would moderate next fiscal (consensus is around or under 6 per cent), this would be on a higher base, thereby having limited impact on credit demand.

In the past four-five years, the report noted that asset quality challenges resulting in higher gross non-performing assets, the RBI putting many banks under the prompt corrective action (PCA) framework, and limited capital buffers have constrained credit growth, particularly for public sector banks. It also said but now after a significant clean-up and strengthening of balance sheets, along with substantial equity infusion, state-run banks are eyeing higher growth. As a result, their credit growth is seen at 12 per cent over this fiscal and next, still lower than the 17 per cent expected for private banks.