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Nifty to consolidate above 15200 zone, buy on dips

In June, most equity indices largely travelled south; key US indices lost more than 7%. Dollar index was firm for the sixth straight month. Brent crude turned volatile, snapping its multi?months upmove. Gold stayed within a band, while Silver is trending weak.  

June series Highlights a) Despite negative close on eoe basis, dropping 18% off record highs, Nifty managed to find key support near its two?year average. b) Metal index was among the major drags, losing 27% over last three months c) Auto index saw renewed buying interest and became the leading outperformer, up 5.4% eoe d) Within the banking space, PSU Bank index held decisively, outperforming the PrivateBank index.

Rollovers for Nifty/Bank?Nifty stood at 75% (~1.28cr shrs)/87% (~28lakh shrs) vs 79% (~1.3cr shrs)/86% (~25.5lakh shrs) of the prior month. Market wide rolls were 92% vs 92% for the prior month.  

En route the month, Nifty’s OI PCR recorded its multi?year lowest reading at 0.60, post which Nifty rallied 5% above its recent low. Historically, whenever Nifty OI PCR has been 0.60 and below, Nifty tends to rebound/stabilize in subsequent weeks. FIIs’ index future long/short ratio stood at 0.17, significantly lower than the 60?day average of 0.71.   

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