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Gold yesterday settled down by -0.86% at 55290 as the dollar tested the 105 for the first time in three weeks as investors digested a slew of job market data that paved the way for an aggressive Federal Reserve. Stronger-than-forecasted ADP and JOLTs Job Openings figures, coupled with a decline in jobless claims numbers, pointed to a still-tight labor market, which, in turn, fueled bets that rates would have to move even higher to cool the economy. On the policy side, minutes from the FOMC December meeting also echoed this view, with policymakers committed to pushing rates higher and holding them at a restrictive level until there were clear signs that inflation was easing. Fed policymakers continued to anticipate that ongoing increases in the federal funds rate would be appropriate and that a restrictive policy stance would need to be maintained until the incoming data provided confidence that inflation was on a sustained downward path to 2%, which was likely to take some time, minutes from the December meeting showed. Also, several participants noted that historical experience cautioned against prematurely loosening monetary policy, given the persistent and unacceptably high level of inflation. At the same time, no participants anticipated that it would be appropriate to begin reducing the federal funds rate target in 2023. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -7.96% to settle at 12941 while prices are down -477 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 54920 and below same could see a test of 54551 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 55789, a move above could see prices testing 56289.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 54551-56289.
* Gold dropped as the dollar tested the 105 for the first time in three weeks as investors digested a slew of job market data
* Stronger-than-forecasted ADP and JOLTs Job Openings figures, coupled with a decline in jobless claims numbers
* Minutes from the FOMC December meeting also echoed this view, with policymakers committed to pushing rates higher



Silver yesterday settled down by -1.79% at 68078 after the minutes from the mid-December meeting showed that Fed officials remained determined to keep rates high despite mounting economic uncertainties. Fed policymakers continued to anticipate that ongoing increases in the federal funds rate would be appropriate and that a restrictive policy stance would need to be maintained until the incoming data provided confidence that inflation was on a sustained downward path to 2%, which was likely to take some time, minutes from the December meeting showed. Also, several participants noted that historical experience cautioned against prematurely loosening monetary policy, given the persistent and unacceptably high level of inflation. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits dropped to a three-month low last week while layoffs fell 43% in December, pointing to tight labor market that could require the Federal Reserve to keep hiking interest rates. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased 19,000 to a seasonally adjusted 204,000 for the week ended Dec. 31, the lowest level since the end of September, the Labor Department said. The Labor Department reported that there were 10.458 million job openings at the end of November, which translated to 1.74 jobs for every unemployed person. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -6.95% to settle at 19563 while prices are down -1240 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 67469 and below same could see a test of 66860 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 69048, a move above could see prices testing 70018.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 66860-70018.
* Silver prices edged lower after the minutes from the mid-December meeting showed that Fed officials remained determined to keep rates high
* Fed policymakers continued to anticipate that ongoing increases in the federal funds rate would be appropriate
* Federal Reserve raised the fed funds rate by 50bps to 4.25%-4.5% during its last monetary policy meeting of 2022



Crude oil yesterday settled up by 0.42% at 6148 rebounded with the shutdown of a U.S. fuel pipeline providing support, though economic concerns capped gains. Big declines in the previous two days were driven by worries about a global recession, especially since short-term economic signs in the world's two biggest oil consumers, the United States and China, looked weak. Helping drive the gains was a statement from top U.S. pipeline operator Colonial Pipeline, which said its Line 3 had been shut for unscheduled maintenance with a restart expected on Jan. 7. Also weighing were inventory figures from the American Petroleum Institute, which according to market sources showed a rise in U.S. crude and gasoline stocks. U.S. shipments of crude oil via rail in October fell by 22,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the previous month to 243,000 bpd, according to data released Friday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Shipments within the United States in October fell by 59,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the previous month to 109,000 bpd. OPEC oil output rose in December, despite an agreement by the wider OPEC+ alliance to cut production targets to support the market. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) pumped 29.0 million barrels per day (bpd) last month, the survey found, up 120,000 bpd from November. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -13.67% to settle at 9982 while prices are up 26 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6040 and below same could see a test of 5933 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6233, a move above could see prices testing 6319.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5933-6319.
* Crude oil rebounded with the shutdown of a U.S. fuel pipeline providing support, though economic concerns capped gains.
* Colonial shuts down Line 3 for unplanned maintenance
* OPEC oil output rises despite production target cuts



Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -11.23% at 310 on forecasts for warmer-than-normal weather to continue into late January. Traders said the biggest uncertainty for the market remains when Freeport LNG will restart its LNG export plant in Texas. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 98.3 bcfd so far in January, up from 96.7 bcfd in December but still below the monthly record of 99.9 bcfd in November 2022. Average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would jump from 110.5 bcfd this week to 121.5 bcfd next week as LNG export rise and temperatures ease ahead of what are usually the coldest weeks of the year. Russia's Gazprom said it would ship 37.8 million cubic metres (mcm) of gas to Europe via Ukraine on Wednesday, down 10.4% from 42.2 mcm on Tuesday. The last time it supplied less than 40 mcm was on July 11, when it shipped 39.4 mcm. Russian gas exports to Europe via pipelines plummeted to a post-Soviet low in 2022 as its largest customer cut imports due to the conflict in Ukraine and a major pipeline was damaged by mysterious blasts, Gazprom data. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 14.93% to settle at 28271 while prices are down -39.2 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 296 and below same could see a test of 281.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 335.6, a move above could see prices testing 361.1.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 281.9-361.1.
* Natural gas dropped on forecasts for warmer-than-normal weather to continue into late January.
* The biggest uncertainty for the market remains when Freeport LNG will restart its LNG export plant in Texas.
* Gazprom's gas supply to Europe via Ukraine down by 10.4%




Copper yesterday settled up by 1.68% at 721.7 as Chile's national statistics institute, Chile's copper production in November, 2022 stood at 459,229 mt, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%. It is assumed that the drop in the output was owed in part to the decline in ore grades and problems related to the production and operation of major mines. In addition, some copper mines were disturbed by water shortage, accidents and maintenance. The PMI in December was 47%, compared with the expected 48%, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous month, which fell short of market expectations. The COVID-19 pandemic has caused another impact on the domestic economy. The new order index stood at 43.9%, down 2.5 percentage points month on month, as demand continued to weaken. The world's refined copper market saw a 46,000 tonne surplus in October, compared with a deficit of 85,000 tonnes in September, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. World refined copper output in October was 2.2 million tonnes, while consumption was 2.16 million tonnes. For the first ten months of the year, the market was in a 307,000 tonne deficit compared with a 271,000 tonne deficit in the same period a year earlier, the ICSG said. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 5.29% to settle at 4258 while prices are up 11.9 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 710.9 and below same could see a test of 700 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 728.2, a move above could see prices testing 734.6.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 700-734.6.
* Copper prices gained as Chile's copper production in Nov 2022 down 5.5% Yoy
* The decline in China's demand for imported copper can also be reflected in Yangshan copper premiums.
* Copper market in 46,000 tonne surplus in October –ICSG



Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.5% at 270.1 as LME zinc inventories currently remain on the decline and dropped more rapidly last week, according to the London Metal Exchange (LME). The inventories stood at 30,475 mt, the lowest for many years. SHFE zinc inventories increased 12.55% to 20,453 mt in the week of December 30, which currently stand at a low level, according to data from the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE). Zinc ingot social inventory across seven markets in China rose during New Year’s Day holiday. US dollar remained strong and the manufacturing PMI recorded a new low throughout 2022, the south region of China ushered in the peak of covid infection, leading to insufficient labour forces. ECB Governing Council member Kazaks said he expects the interest rates to be raised sharply at the following two meetings, with future rate hikes likely to be smaller. Ukrainian President Zelensky spoke to Dutch Prime Minister Rutte on January 3. Dutch Prime Minister Rutte said that the Netherlands will continue to help and support Ukraine. Since February 24 last year, the Netherlands has provided 987 million euros in military aid to Ukraine. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.63% to settle at 1880 while prices are up 1.35 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 267.9 and below same could see a test of 265.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 272.3, a move above could see prices testing 274.3.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 265.5-274.3.
* Zinc prices gained as LME zinc inventories currently remain on the decline and dropped more rapidly last week
* SHFE zinc inventories increased 12.55% to 20,453 mt in the week of December 30, which currently stand at a low level
* Zinc ingot social inventory across seven markets in China rose during New Year’s Day holiday.




Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.07% at 202.15 as the power rationing in south-west China dragged down the domestic operating aluminium capacity. However, upside seen limited as the overall supply remained stable as the aluminium factories in Guangxi and Sichuan continued to resume the production. The increase in the aluminium supply in December may be less than expected as the power shortage extended in Guizhou. The inventory has accumulated for three consecutive weeks after hitting the low point, and increased 14% during the New Year’s Day holiday, which weakened the support for aluminium prices. According to statistics, as of January 3, the domestic social inventory of aluminium was 561,000 mt, an increase of 6,800 mt from last Thursday and a decrease of 241,000 mt from the same period last year. According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME), LME aluminium inventories have re-entered the downward cycle since late October last year. The latest inventory level was 450,300 mt as of December 30, a new low in the past two months. Inflation in France unexpectedly edged lower in December from a record high a month earlier, helped by slowing energy price rises, official data showed, offering hope the worst of the inflation crisis may be over. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 2.91% to settle at 4132 while prices are down -0.15 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 200.6 and below same could see a test of 199 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 204.6, a move above could see prices testing 207.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 199-207.
* Aluminum pared gains on profit booking after seen supported as the power rationing in south-west China dragged down operating aluminium capacity.
* However, upside seen limited as the overall supply remained stable as the aluminium factories in Guangxi and Sichuan continued to resume the production
* LME aluminium inventories have re-entered the downward cycle since late October last year.



Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.69% at 1042.9 on profit booking after prices gained on improving export demand especially from China. Mentha exports during Apr-Oct 2022 has dropped by 20.15 percent at 1,249.02 tonnes as compared to 1,564.12 tonnes exported during Apr- Oct 2021. In the month of October 2022 around 141.82 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 220.67 tonnes in September 2022 showing a drop of 35.73%. In the month of October 2022 around 141.82 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 279.00 tonnes in October 2021 showing a drop of 49.17%. Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. Support also seen amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 2.8 Rupees to end at 1184.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 1.03% to settle at 977 while prices are down -7.2 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1035.2 and below same could see a test of 1027.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1048.7, a move above could see prices testing 1054.6.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1027.6-1054.6.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 2.8 Rupees to end at 1184.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil dropped on profit booking after prices gained on improving export demand especially from China.
* Mentha exports during Apr-Oct 2022 has dropped by 20.15 percent at 1,249.02 tonnes.
* In the month of October 2022 around 141.82 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 279.00 tonnes in October 2021



Turmeric yesterday settled down by -2.04% at 7796 on an “unexpected” slump in domestic and export demand. Turmeric production in the 2021-22 crop year (June-July) has been projected at 13.31 lakh tonnes against 11.24 lakh tonnes the previous year with the area increasing to 3.5 lakh hectares from 2.93 lakh hectares. In the first advance estimate, the crop was pegged at 11.76 lakh tonnes. Turmeric exports during Apr- Oct 2022 has rose by 11.09 percent at 99,569.88 tonnes as compared to 89,626.39 tonnes exported during Apr- Oct 2021. In the month of October 2022 around 11,178.11 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 13,990.65 tonnes in September 2022 showing a fall of 20.10%. In the month of October 2022 around 11,178.11 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,534.87 tonnes in October 2021 showing a fall of 10.82%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7358.3 Rupees gained 2.85 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 5.87% to settle at 12360 while prices are down -162 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7720 and below same could see a test of 7642 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7918, a move above could see prices testing 8038.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7642-8038.
* Turmeric prices dropped on an “unexpected” slump in domestic and export demand.
* Turmeric production in the 2021-22 crop year (June-July) has been projected at 13.31 lakh tonnes against 11.24 lakh tonnes the previous year
* Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7358.3 Rupees gained 2.85 Rupees.



Jeera yesterday settled down by -2.06% at 33455 on profit booking after prices rose above 34000 level amid reduced sowing in Gujarat, coupled with a tight supply, and climatic uncertainties. Projections of lower carryover stock and fears of sowing in key growing regions of Gujarat being affected. Sowing In Gujarat, dropped by nearly -8% with 274,995.00 hectares against sown area of 2021 which was 300,401.00 hectares. Prices gained to all time high amid higher demand for the fresh crop and supply tightness in the physical market. Good demand expected from China in December-January and Ramzan demand during January-February from gulf & other countries. Jeera exports during Apr- Oct 2022 has dropped by 18.92 percent at 1,22,015.13 tonnes as compared to 1,50,479.11 tonnes exported during Apr- Oct 2021. In the month of October 2022 around 12,427.86 tonnes jeera was exported as against 18,081.78 tonnes in September 2022 showing a drop of 31.27%. In the month of October 2022 around 12,427.86 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 11,260.72 tonnes in October 2021 showing a rise of 10.36%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 93.2 Rupees to end at 33113.25 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.33% to settle at 5412 while prices are down -705 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 32925 and below same could see a test of 32400 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 34300, a move above could see prices testing 35150.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 32400-35150.
* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices rose above 34000 level amid reduced sowing in Gujarat, coupled with a tight supply, and climatic uncertainties.
* Projections of lower carryover stock and fears of sowing in key growing regions of Gujarat being affected.
* Sowing in Gujarat, dropped by nearly -8% with 274,995.00 hectares against sown area of 2021 which was 300,401.00 hectares.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 93.2 Rupees to end at 33113.25 Rupees per 100 kg.

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