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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.1% at 59355 as traders digest the latest monetary policy decisions. The Federal Reserve paused its tightening campaign, but hinted at further interest rate hikes this year. At the same time, the ECB delivered another 25bps increase in borrowing costs and reiterated it is not planning to pause the rate-hike campaign. Also, the BoE is expected to increase rates further next week. On the other hand, the BoJ is set to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy tomorrow and the People's Bank of China cut two key interest rates by 10bps, the first reduction since August 2022. The ECB delivered another 25bps interest rate increase, in line with market expectations, and signalled more hikes to come, as inflation is projected to remain too high for too long. The interest rate on the main refinancing operations is now at 4% while the deposit facility increased to a 22-year high of 3.5%. Capacity utilization rate in the United States decreased to 79.6% in May of 2023 from an upwardly revised 79.8% in April and below forecasts of 79.7%. It is also 0.1 percentage point below its long-run average. The operating rate for mining edged down 0.3 percentage point to 92.2. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.43% to settle at 13610 while prices are up 57 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 58883 and below same could see a test of 58410 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 59607, a move above could see prices testing 59858.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 58410-59858.
* Gold prices were little changed as traders digest the latest monetary policy decisions.
* The Federal Reserve paused its tightening campaign, but hinted at further interest rate hikes this year.
* ECB raises rates for 8th straight time

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.72% at 72126 as investors digest the latest FOMC decision. The Federal Reserve left the fed funds rate steady as expected, but signalled more hikes to come. Traders are now betting on two more hikes of 25bps over the remaining four meetings this year. Meanwhile, the BoJ is set to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy and the People's Bank of China unexpectedly cut its 7-day reverse repurchase rate by 10bps to 1.9% yesterday, marking the first reduction since August 2022. On the other hand, the ECB is widely anticipated to hike key interest rates by another 25bps tomorrow and both the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada surprised markets by raising rates further earlier this month. U.S. retail sales unexpectedly rose in May as consumers bought more motor vehicles and a range of other goods, which could help to support the economy this quarter, though rising layoffs could hamper consumer spending later in the year. Retail sales increased 0.3% last month after rising 0.4% in April, the Commerce Department said. Retail sales are mostly goods and are not adjusted for inflation. Silver production out of Peru contracted by 7% year-on-year in the first four months of 2023. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -7.04% to settle at 13038 while prices are down -525 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 71045 and below same could see a test of 69963 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 72879, a move above could see prices testing 73631.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 69963-73631.
* Silver prices cut gains as investors digest the latest FOMC decision.
* The Federal Reserve left the fed funds rate steady as expected, but signalled more hikes to come.
* Silver production out of Peru contracted by 7% year-on-year in the first four months of 2023.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 2.35% at 5835 as the dollar weakened and China's oil refinery throughput in May rose 15.4 percent from a year earlier, hitting its second highest total on record. The IEA said in its monthly report that global oil demand will rise by 6% between 2022 and 2028. China’s central bank has now lowered two key lending rates this month for the first time in nearly a year to support the economic recovery, prompting markets to reassess the demand outlook in the world’s top crude importer. The US Fed also held off on a rate hike at its June meeting while hinting at two more quarter-point rate increases by the end of the year. Meanwhile, official data showed that US crude inventories surged by 7.919 million barrels last week, the most in 17 weeks and compared with market expectations of a 0.51 million draw. Gasoline and distillate stockpiles also increased more than expected. UBS expects a supply deficit of around 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in June and more than 2 million bpd in July. Chinese demand for oil is seen continuing to rise at an assured rate during the second half of the year, Kuwait Petroleum Corporation's (KPC) chief executive said. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -17.75% to settle at 10602 while prices are up 134 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5699 and below same could see a test of 5562 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5911, a move above could see prices testing 5986.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5562-5986.
* Crude oil rose as China's oil refinery in May rose 15.4% from a year earlier
* The IEA said in its monthly report that global oil demand will rise by 6% between 2022 and 2028.
* Data showed that US crude inventories surged by 7.919 million barrels last week, the most in 17 weeks

Natural Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 8.39% at 209.3 on soaring gas prices in Europe and a decline in U.S. output. That price increase came despite a drop in the amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities due to plant maintenance. US utilities added 84 billion cubic feet of gas into storage during the week ended June 9, 2023, less than market expectations of a 95 bcf increase. That compared with an increase of 94 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2018-2022) average increase of 84 bcf. Last week's increase brought stockpiles to 2.634 trillion cubic feet (tcf), 552 bcf higher than last year and 353 bcf above the five-year average of 2.281 bcf. At 2.634 tcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states slid to 101.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, down from a monthly record of 102.5 bcfd in May. Canadian gas exports to the U.S. were on track to rise to 7.8 bcfd on Thursday, up from around 7.2 bcfd on Tuesday and Wednesday when wildfires raged in Alberta and other Canadian provinces. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -43.06% to settle at 20148 while prices are up 16.2 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 196.2 and below same could see a test of 183 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 216.5, a move above could see prices testing 223.6.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 183-223.6.
* Natural gas climbed on soaring gas prices in Europe and a decline in US output.
* US utilities added 84 bcf of gas into storage during the week ended June 9, 2023, less than market expectations
* Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states slid to 101.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June


Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.46% at 735.25 as stocks in LME-registered warehouses, registered a fall to a one-month low of 79,525 metric tons. Large cancellation of warrants, indicates large amounts of copper are due to leave the LME system soon. Concern about copper supplies on the LME market are behind the shift to a premium for cash copper over the three-month contract, for the first time in two months, from a discount. The Fed left interest rates unchanged but signaled in new projections that borrowing costs may still need to rise by as much as half of a percentage point by the end of this year, as the U.S. central bank reacted to a stronger-than-expected economy and a slower decline in inflation. Meanwhile, China's central bank cut the borrowing cost of its medium-term policy loans for the first time in 10 months, days after it lowered two key short-term policy rates, as Beijing ramps up stimulus measures to boost economic growth. The global refined copper market had a 2,000 tonne surplus in March, compared with a 196,000 tonne surplus the previous month, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. World refined copper output was 2.310 million tonnes and consumption was 2.308 million tonnes, the ICSG said. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -5.28% to settle at 5063 while prices are up 3.4 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 729 and below same could see a test of 722.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 738.7, a move above could see prices testing 742.1.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 722.7-742.1.
* Copper gains as stocks in LME-registered warehouses, registered a fall to a one-month low of 79,525 metric tons.
* Large cancellation of warrants, indicates large amounts of copper are due to leave the LME system soon.
* Concern about copper supplies on the LME market are behind the shift to a premium for cash copper over the three-month contract

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.57% at 222.2 amid concerns over supply following the announcement by Swedish miner Boliden that it will halt production at Europe's largest zinc mine in Ireland within the next month due to "unsustainable financial losses." Looking ahead, S&P Global predicts a modest 1.4% growth in global refined zinc demand for 2023, while global refined zinc output is expected to increase by a mere 1.9% as power shortages in China restrict production. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) slashed the one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) rate by 10 basis points to 2.65% on June 15th, 2023, marking the first reduction since August 2022, after lowering the reverse repurchase rate by 10 basis points to 1.9% on June 13th, 2023 as policymakers sought to support a recovery in the economy. The global zinc market surplus climbed to 26,700 tonnes in March, from a surplus of 22,800 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. During the first three months of 2023, ILZSG data showed a surplus of 49,000 tonnes, versus a surplus of 116,000 tonnes in the same period of 2022. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -7.44% to settle at 2327 while prices are up 1.25 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 220.1 and below same could see a test of 217.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 223.6, a move above could see prices testing 224.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 217.8-224.8.
* Zinc prices rose amid concerns over supply
* Swedish miner Boliden that it will halt production within the next month due to "unsustainable financial losses."
* S&P Global predicts a modest 1.4% growth in global refined zinc demand for 2023


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.15% at 204.55 as China's primary aluminium output in May rose only slightly from a year earlier, data showed, as production in most regions remained steady while output growth was capped by extended power curbs in the southwestern Yunnan province. The world's top aluminium producer churned out 3.42 million metric tons of primary aluminium last month, up 1.1% from the same period a year ago, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. May's data equates to a daily output of 110,323 metric tons, compared with 110,000 tons per day from the previous month. The eastern Shandong province, northern Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, which together account for nearly half of the country's total capacity, maintained strong production rates in May as they reaped good profits. The southwestern Yunnan province, the country's fourth-biggest aluminium producer, continued to suffer from prolonged production cuts amid a power crunch. Power supplies to the province's smelters will be increased later this month after more rainfall recently, and analysts expect to see over 1 million metric tons of capacity resuming output. For the January-to-May period, China produced 16.71 million metric tons of aluminium, up 3.4% from the same period last year, the data showed. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.09% to settle at 3092 while prices are down -0.3 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 203.4 and below same could see a test of 202.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 205.2, a move above could see prices testing 205.9.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 202.3-205.9.
* Aluminum dropped as China May output edged up 1.1% to 3.42 mln tonnes
* For the January-to-May period, China produced 16.71 million tonnes, up 3.4% from the same period last year
* China's central bank upbeat on Q2 GDP growth, confident on 2023 targets

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 1.17% at 931.9 on low level buying after prices dropped on better sowing prospects. Reports of increased acreages and sluggish export of menthol will weigh on prices. Rising menthol imports, as well as China's limited purchasing, will put pressure on pricing. Mentha exports during Apr 2023, dropped by 42.52 percent to 97.85 tonnes as compared to 170.22 tonnes exported during Apr 2022. In April 2023 around 97.85 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 202.95 tonnes in March 2023 showing a drop of 51.78%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 15 Rupees to end at 1068.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -7.92% to settle at 581 while prices are up 10.8 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 919.8 and below same could see a test of 907.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 940.4, a move above could see prices testing 948.9.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 907.7-948.9.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 15 Rupees to end at 1068.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil gained on low level buying after prices dropped on better sowing prospects.
* Reports of increased acreages and sluggish export of menthol will weigh on prices.
* Rising menthol imports, as well as China's limited purchasing, will put pressure on pricing.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 3.24% at 8658 as the kharif sowing acreage is expected to decrease during the current season. In Maharashtra, the sowing area is projected to decline by 10%-20%. Similarly, in Tamil Nadu, the acreage is expected to decrease by 10%-15%. In Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, there is an anticipated decline of 18%-22% in the acreage compared to the previous season. Crop arrivals for the week ending June 10, 2023, were significantly lower at 3,731.85 MT, down 55% from the previous week. Support also seen as the untimely rains that occurred in various places in the Andhra Pradesh damaged turmeric crops causing huge loss to the farmers. Turmeric exports during Apr 2023, rose by 42.32 percent at 19,590.87 tonnes as compared to 13,765.03 tonnes exported during Apr 2022. In April 2023 around 19,590.87 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 18,810.47 tonnes in March 2023 showing a rise of 4.15%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7761.45 Rupees gained 108.7 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 3.19% to settle at while prices are up 272 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8472 and below same could see a test of 8284 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8848, a move above could see prices testing 9036.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 8284-9036.
* Turmeric gains as the kharif sowing acreage is expected to decrease
* Support also seen as the untimely rains that occurred in various places in the Andhra Pradesh damaged turmeric crops.
* Supplies in Maharashtra and Telangana are likely to increase as farmers are getting fair realization on their produce.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7761.45 Rupees gained 108.7 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -1.24% at 49265 on profit booking after prices gained due to good export demand and expectations of lower stocks end of the current marketing year. Prices rose on crop worries grow due to unseasonal rains and hailstorms in Rajasthan, the major producing state. The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season, which has boosted the demand from domestic and export buyers. The jeera growing regions in southern and north-western parts of Rajasthan in the districts of Alwar, Jaisalmer, Jaipur, Bikaner, Bhilwara, and Barmer have received a fresh spell of unseasonal rains in the past week, triggering concerns on the crop condition. Marginal traders are avoiding bulk buying in anticipation of rise in seasonal supply of jeera in Gujarat and Rajasthan. Below normal supplies in the market supported firmness in prices. About 508 tonnes of jeera arrived on 6th June at major APMC mandis across India as compared to 653 tonnes of prior day. Tighter carryover stocks and lower production will push up the prices further. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. One bag holds 55kg. This will result in a demand-supply imbalance. Currently, at least 70% of the crop in Rajasthan and around 30% in Gujarat have yet to be harvested. Because of the rain in both states, the total yield will be reduced. The cumin crop was destroyed by two bouts of unseasonal rainfall during the harvest season. In comparison to the planned arrival of 70 lakh bags, the stock will be reduced to 60-65 lakh bags, with a carry-forward stock of 5 lakh bags from last year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 68.5 Rupees to end at 49306.15 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.66% to settle at while prices are down -620 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 48840 and below same could see a test of 48410 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 49920, a move above could see prices testing 50570.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 48410-50570.
* Jeera dropped on profit booking after gained on good export demand
* Traders are avoiding bulk buying in anticipation of rise in seasonal supply of jeera in Gujarat and Rajasthan.
* The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 68.5 Rupees to end at 49306.15 Rupees per 100 kg.

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