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Gold

Gold yesterday settled flat at 59354 as the dollar climbed higher after data showed a bigger than expected improvement in U.S. consumer sentiment and a drop in inflation expectations. Still, the metal remains close to three-month lows as the Fed hinted at two more quarter-point rate increases this year, while the European Central Bank delivered another 25-basis point rate hike on Thursday and signaled further tightening. The Bank of England is also set to raise rates again at its June policy meeting, a month marked by surprise rate increases from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China lowered key short-term interest rates this week for the first time in ten months, while the Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-easy monetary policy on Friday. Buyers picked up more physical gold in most Asian hubs as domestic prices eased, but dealers in India continued to offer discounts while jewellers trimmed their inventory on doubts over demand in coming months. Dealers offered discounts of up to $2 an ounce over official domestic prices slightly lower than last week's $5 discounts. Jewellers, uncertain of demand in coming months, have been running operations with thin inventories. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.79% to settle at 13717 while prices are remain unchanged -1 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 59207 and below same could see a test of 59060 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 59528, a move above could see prices testing 59702.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 59060-59702.
* Gold settled flat as the dollar climbed higher
* Fed paused its tightening campaign at a time other major central banks are still raising interest rates.
* European Central Bank delivered another 25-basis point rate hike and signaled further tightening.

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.78% at 72688 as the dollar index hovered near a five-week low below 103 following hawkish comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde. The repo rate cut by China's central bank also boosted the flow of money into industrial commodities. the European Central Bank raised rates by 25 basis points to a 22-year high and signaled another hike in July. Elsewhere, investors are pinning hopes that the Federal Reserve will not follow through with more rate hikes. Earlier, the Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-easy monetary policy and signaled no change to its quantitative easing and yield curve control policies. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US increased to 63.9 in June of 2023, the highest in four months, from 59.2 in May, preliminary figures showed. Figures beat forecasts of 60, reflecting greater optimism as inflation eased and policymakers resolved the debt ceiling crisis. Investors anticipated the Bank of England's upcoming monetary policy meeting on Thursday. Recent data revealing a faster-than-expected increase in British wages and continued economic expansion in April heightened investors' expectations of the Bank of England resorting to further interest rate hikes in response to persistent inflationary pressures. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 4.48% to settle at 13622 while prices are up 562 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 72126 and below same could see a test of 71563 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 73148, a move above could see prices testing 73607.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 71563-73607.
* Silver rose as the dollar index hovered near a five-week low below 103
* The repo rate cut by China's central bank also boosted the flow of money into industrial commodities.
* European Central Bank raised rates by 25 basis points to a 22-year high and signaled another hike in July.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 0.72% at 5877 on optimism about crude demand from Chinese refineries. Data showed China's oil refinery throughput in May rose 15.4 percent from a year earlier, hitting its second highest total on record. India and China, the world's top oil users, bought as much as 80 percent of the oil that Moscow exported in May, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its latest Oil Market Report. "Heavily discounted Russian crude oil has found new buyers primarily in Asia. India has increased purchases from almost nothing to close to 2 million barrels per day, while China has raised liftings by 500,000 barrels per day to 2.2 million barrels per day," the Paris-based energy agency said. In another development, Russian Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov said it was "realistic" to reach oil prices of around $80 per barrel - according to Russian state news agencies. U.S. crude oil stockpiles posted a surprise large build last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories gained more than expected, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said. Crude inventories rose by 7.9 million barrels in the week to June 9, the EIA said, compared with expectations in a poll for a draw of 510,000 barrels. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -13.34% to settle at 9188 while prices are up 42 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5806 and below same could see a test of 5736 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5915, a move above could see prices testing 5954.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5736-5954.
* Crude oil rose on optimism about crude demand from Chinese refineries.
* China's oil refinery throughput in May rose 15.4 percent from a year earlier, hitting its second highest total on record.
* India and China, bought as much as 80 percent of the oil that Moscow exported in May

Natural Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 2.82% at 215.2 on forecasts for demand to soar as the weather turns hot in late June, especially in Texas. Power use in Texas is expected to break records next week as homes and businesses crank up their air conditioners to escape the first heat wave of the 2023 summer season. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states slid to 101.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, down from a monthly record of 102.5 bcfd in May. Meteorologists forecast the weather would remain mostly near normal from June 16-22 before turning hotter-than-normal from June 23-July 1. With warmer weather coming, Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 93.2 bcfd this week to 96.0 bcfd next week and 101.8 bcfd in two weeks. US utilities added 84 billion cubic feet of gas into storage, falling short of market expectations of a 95 bcf increase, the EIA said. Furthermore, a projected heatwave from June 23-30 is expected to drive up demand for gas, particularly for power generation used in air conditioning. On the supply side, domestic gas output is declining from the record level of 102.5 bcfd seen in May. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -13.42% to settle at 17444 while prices are up 5.9 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 208.9 and below same could see a test of 202.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 219.4, a move above could see prices testing 223.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 202.7-223.7.
* Natural gas gained on forecasts for demand to soar.
* Power use in Texas is expected to break records next week.
* US utilities added 84 billion cubic feet of gas into storage, falling short of market expectations


Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.17% at 734 as the dollar climbed higher after data showed a bigger than expected improvement in U.S. consumer sentiment and a drop in inflation expectations. Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 20.1% from last Friday. China's refined copper production in May jumped 12.9% year on year to 1.1 million metric tons, a record monthly high, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed. On a daily basis, average copper output stood at 35,323 metric tons over May. Copper inventories in the domestic bonded zones decreased 8,900 mt from June 9 to 78,900 mt. Copper inventories in the Guangdong bonded zone dipped 2,500 mt to 5,500 mt, and inventories in the Shanghai bonded zone fell 6,400 mt to 73,400 mt. Arriving shipments in the bonded zones should grow slightly next week amid concentrated shipments arrivals from LME warehouses. Stocks in LME-registered warehouses, registered a fall to a one-month low of 79,525 metric tons. Large cancellation of warrants, indicates large amounts of copper are due to leave the LME system soon. Concern about copper supplies on the LME market are behind the shift to a premium for cash copper over the three-month contract, for the first time in two months, from a discount. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -14.87% to settle at 4310 while prices are down -1.25 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 731.7 and below same could see a test of 729.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 737.6, a move above could see prices testing 741.1.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 729.3-741.1.
* Copper dropped after bigger than expected improvement in U.S. consumer sentiment
* China May refined copper output hits record high
* Stocks in LME-registered warehouses, registered a fall to a one-month low of 79,525 metric tons.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.16% at 221.85 as Chinese refined zinc output stood at 564,500 mt in May, an increase of 24,500 mt or 4.54% MoM and 9.56% YoY, slightly exceeding expectations. Prices rallied earlier in the week amid concerns over supply following the announcement by Swedish miner Boliden that it will halt production at Europe's largest zinc mine in Ireland within the next month due to "unsustainable financial losses." Looking ahead, S&P Global predicts a modest 1.4% growth in global refined zinc demand for 2023, while global refined zinc output is expected to increase by a mere 1.9% as power shortages in China restrict production. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) slashed the one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) rate by 10 basis points to 2.65% on June 15th, 2023, marking the first reduction since August 2022, after lowering the reverse repurchase rate by 10 basis points to 1.9% on June 13th, 2023 as policymakers sought to support a recovery in the economy. The global zinc market surplus climbed to 26,700 tonnes in March, from a surplus of 22,800 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -14.95% to settle at 1979 while prices are down -0.35 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 220.5 and below same could see a test of 219.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 223.9, a move above could see prices testing 226.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 219.2-226.
* Zinc dropped as Chinese refined zinc output rose 4.54% MoM and 9.56% YoY
* Swedish miner Boliden that it will halt production within the next month due to "unsustainable financial losses."
* S&P Global predicts a modest 1.4% growth in global refined zinc demand for 2023


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.46% at 205.5 underpinned by a weaker dollar and bets of more stimulus in China. Investor sentiment was boosted by U.S. economic data showing an unexpected rise in May retail sales as consumers stepped up purchases of motor vehicles and building materials, which could help to stave off a recession in the near term. Hopes have grown that China would unveil more measures to shore up its shaky post-pandemic recovery after new home prices rose at a slower pace in May and property investment slumped at the steepest pace in more than two decades. China's primary aluminium output in May rose only slightly from a year earlier, data showed, as production in most regions remained steady while output growth was capped by extended power curbs in the southwestern Yunnan province. The world's top aluminium producer churned out 3.42 million metric tons of primary aluminium last month, up 1.1% from the same period a year ago, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. May's data equates to a daily output of 110,323 metric tons, compared with 110,000 tons per day from the previous month. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -11.42% to settle at 2739 while prices are up 0.95 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 204.5 and below same could see a test of 203.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 206.4, a move above could see prices testing 207.3.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 203.5-207.3.
* Aluminium gains underpinned by a weaker dollar and bets of more stimulus in China
* China's primary aluminium output in May rose only slightly from a year earlier
* Investor sentiment was boosted by U.S. economic data showing an unexpected rise in May retail sales

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.69% at 925.5 on better sowing prospects. Reports of increased acreages and sluggish export of menthol will weigh on prices. Rising menthol imports, as well as China's limited purchasing, will put pressure on pricing. Mentha exports during Apr 2023, dropped by 42.52 percent to 97.85 tonnes as compared to 170.22 tonnes exported during Apr 2022. In April 2023 around 97.85 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 202.95 tonnes in March 2023 showing a drop of 51.78%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 15 Rupees to end at 1068.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.72% to settle at 571 while prices are down -6.4 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 919.6 and below same could see a test of 913.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 932.9, a move above could see prices testing 940.3.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 913.7-940.3.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 15 Rupees to end at 1068.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices dropped on better sowing prospects.
* Reports of increased acreages and sluggish export of menthol will weigh on prices.
* Rising menthol imports, as well as China's limited purchasing, will put pressure on pricing.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 2.01% at 8832 as the kharif sowing acreage is expected to decrease during the current season. In Maharashtra, the sowing area is projected to decline by 10%-20%. Similarly, in Tamil Nadu, the acreage is expected to decrease by 10%-15%. In Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, there is an anticipated decline of 18%-22% in the acreage compared to the previous season. Crop arrivals for the week ending June 10, 2023, were significantly lower at 3,731.85 MT, down 55% from the previous week. Support also seen as the untimely rains that occurred in various places in the Andhra Pradesh damaged turmeric crops causing huge loss to the farmers. Turmeric exports during Apr 2023, rose by 42.32 percent at 19,590.87 tonnes as compared to 13,765.03 tonnes exported during Apr 2022. In April 2023 around 19,590.87 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 18,810.47 tonnes in March 2023 showing a rise of 4.15%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7761.45 Rupees gained 108.7 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 5.26% to settle at while prices are up 174 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8526 and below same could see a test of 8218 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 9046, a move above could see prices testing 9258.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 8218-9258.
* Turmeric gains as the kharif sowing acreage is expected to decrease
* Support also seen as the untimely rains that occurred in various places in the Andhra Pradesh damaged turmeric crops.
* Supplies in Maharashtra and Telangana are likely to increase as farmers are getting fair realization on their produce.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7761.45 Rupees gained 108.7 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.1% at 49315 due to good export demand and expectations of lower stocks end of the current marketing year. Prices rose on crop worries grow due to unseasonal rains and hailstorms in Rajasthan, the major producing state. The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season, which has boosted the demand from domestic and export buyers. The jeera growing regions in southern and north-western parts of Rajasthan in the districts of Alwar, Jaisalmer, Jaipur, Bikaner, Bhilwara, and Barmer have received a fresh spell of unseasonal rains in the past week, triggering concerns on the crop condition. Marginal traders are avoiding bulk buying in anticipation of rise in seasonal supply of jeera in Gujarat and Rajasthan. Below normal supplies in the market supported firmness in prices. About 508 tonnes of jeera arrived on 6th June at major APMC mandis across India as compared to 653 tonnes of prior day. Tighter carryover stocks and lower production will push up the prices further. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. One bag holds 55kg. This will result in a demand-supply imbalance. Currently, at least 70% of the crop in Rajasthan and around 30% in Gujarat have yet to be harvested. Because of the rain in both states, the total yield will be reduced. The cumin crop was destroyed by two bouts of unseasonal rainfall during the harvest season. In comparison to the planned arrival of 70 lakh bags, the stock will be reduced to 60-65 lakh bags, with a carry-forward stock of 5 lakh bags from last year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 68.5 Rupees to end at 49306.15 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.01% to settle at while prices are up 50 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 48805 and below same could see a test of 48295 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 49740, a move above could see prices testing 50165.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 48295-50165.
* Jeera gained on good export demand
* Traders are avoiding bulk buying in anticipation of rise in seasonal supply of jeera in Gujarat and Rajasthan.
* The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 68.5 Rupees to end at 49306.15 Rupees per 100 kg.

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