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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -1.92% at 56585 pressured by a stronger dollar and a pick up in Treasury yields after hot jobs data fanned concerns about hawkish central bank policies. The Labor Department's closely watched employment report showed that US employers hired more workers than expected in January, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 517,000 last month. This report brought a higher degree of uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's next move while dashing expectations that the Fed and other central banks will soon end their tightening cycle. The US economy added 517K jobs in January, the most since July and much above market expectations of 185K. Still, the greenback remains down more than 10% from its September peak as the Federal Reserve delivered a smaller 25 basis point rate hike in a widely expected move, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the “disinflationary process has started.” Physical gold demand in India ticked up, as jewellers resumed purchases after staying away for a couple of weeks hoping for an import duty cut in the government budget amid the wedding season. In India dealers to offer discounts of up to $48 an ounce over official domestic prices, from last week's $42 discounts. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -10.36% to settle at 17179 while prices are down -1110 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 56120 and below same could see a test of 55654 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 57476, a move above could see prices testing 58366.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 55654-58366.
* Gold dipped pressured by a stronger dollar and a pick up in Treasury yields after hot jobs data fanned concerns about hawkish central bank policies
* The Labor Department's closely watched employment report showed that US employers hired more workers than expected in January
* The US economy added 517K jobs in January, the most since July and much above market expectations of 185K.


Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -3.74% at 67576 pressured by a sharp appreciation of the dollar as hotter-than-expected jobs data dashed hopes expectations that the Fed and other central banks will soon end their tightening cycles. At the same, recession concerns pressured prices further, as investors worried about low demand for the metal as an industrial input for goods with high electricity conduction needs, which was reflected in its sharp underperformance to gold in January. Still, projections of weak supply limited the fall, as COMEX inventories remained under pressure and LBMA stockpiles plunged amid outflows to India. In Europe, the ECB raised its key rates by 50bps, as widely expected, and signaled another similar hike in March to extend its efforts against soaring inflation in the bloc. Still, policymakers stated the bloc's economy could contract both this quarter and the next, easing the extent of hawkish bets for the medium term. The unemployment rate in the US inched lower to 3.4 percent in January 2023, the lowest level since May 1969 and below market expectations of 3.6 percent, as the number of unemployed people declined by 28 thousand to 5.69 million and the number of employed increased by 894 thousand to 160.1 million. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -20.25% to settle at 14357 while prices are down -2628 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 66469 and below same could see a test of 65362 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 69620, a move above could see prices testing 71664.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 65362-71664.
* Silver dropped pressured by a sharp appreciation of the dollar as hotter-than-expected jobs data dashed hopes expectations that the Fed
* In Europe, the ECB raised its key rates by 50bps, as widely expected, and signaled another similar hike in March to extend its efforts
* However, projections of weak supply limited the fall, as COMEX inventories remained under pressure


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -3.48% at 6097 amid concerns about the outlook for fuel demand, with investors weighing the prospects of a recession. The dollar's surge after data showed stronger than expected jobs growth in the month of December also weighed on oil prices. The boost to commodities from China’s reopening started to fade as the timing and degree of the country’s economic recovery remains highly uncertain, though analysts are confident that Asia’s largest economy will bounce back this year. Latest data also showed that US crude inventories increased for a sixth week and expanded much more than expected. Moreover, robust Russian crude exports amid strong demand from Asia and mounting fears of a global economic slowdown added to the bearish case for oil. Meanwhile, an OPEC+ committee recommended keeping crude production steady earlier this week, citing uncertainty about the impact of China's economic reopening and the latest sanctions on Russian supply. Investors are eyeing developments on the Feb. 5 European Union ban on Russian refined products, with EU countries seeking a deal to set price caps for Russian oil products. The Kremlin said that the EU embargo on Russia's refined oil products would lead to further imbalance in global energy markets. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 34.01% to settle at 10072 while prices are down -220 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5976 and below same could see a test of 5854 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6319, a move above could see prices testing 6540.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5854-6540.
* Crude oil dropped amid concerns about the outlook for fuel demand, with investors weighing the prospects of a recession.
* Latest data also showed that US crude inventories increased for a sixth week and expanded much more than expected.
* European Union ban on Russian refined products begins Feb. 5


Natural gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -4.78% at 201.3 on forecasts for the weather to turn mostly warmer than normal through mid February and on a smaller than usual storage withdrawal. Federal regulators approved Freeport's plan to start sending gas to one of the plant's three liquefaction trains, which turn gas into LNG. The energy market expects gas prices to rise once the plant starts pulling in large amounts of gas. Freeport can turn about 2.1 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into LNG each day. That is about 2% of total U.S. daily gas production. Gas prices were also supported by this week's roughly 3.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) drop in gas output to a one-month low of 93.9 bcfd as winter storms freeze oil and gas wells – known as freeze-offs – in several states, including Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico and Pennsylvania. Meteorologists forecast temperatures across much of the U.S. Lower 48 states would remain below normal through Feb. 4 before rising to mostly above-normal levels from Feb. 5 through at least Feb. 17. Those above normal levels, however, were lower than previously expected. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 5.48% to settle at 42227 while prices are down -10.1 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 195.8 and below same could see a test of 190.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 208.5, a move above could see prices testing 215.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 190.2-215.6.
* Natural gas dropped on forecasts for the weather to turn mostly warmer than normal through mid February
* Federal regulators approved Freeport's plan to start sending gas to one of the plant's three liquefaction trains
* However, downside seen limited amid roughly 3.7 bcfd drop in gas output to a one-month low of 93.9 bcfd



Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.68% at 771.4 as demand concerns and a firmer dollar more than offset supply disruptions. The latest data pointed to a bigger-than-usual inventory build-up in China over the Lunar New Year holiday despite subdued imports, raising concerns about demand. Copper inventories in SHFE warehouses jumped by 61.8% since January 20 to 226,509 tonnes on February 3. On the supply side, the Las Bambas mine in Peru officially halted production on February 1st. The copper mine accounts for 2% of the metal worldwide and had been operating at a reduced rate since December 7, after Congress removed and arrested President Castillo. The Caixin China General Services PMI increased to 52.9 in January 2023 from 48.0 in December. This was the first expansion in the service sector since last August supported by a rebound in business activity and new work, amid lifting Covid-zero policies and a recovery in customer demand. Both activity and new work increased for the first time in 5 months. The Caixin China General Composite PMI climbed to 51.1 in January 2023 from 48.3 in the previous month. This was the first growth in private sector activity since last August, buoyed by the removal of tough pandemic measures. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.89% to settle at 4020 while prices are down -5.25 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 767 and below same could see a test of 762.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 778.4, a move above could see prices testing 785.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 762.6-785.4.
* Copper fell as demand concerns and a firmer dollar more than offset supply disruptions.
* The latest data pointed to a bigger-than-usual inventory build-up in China over the Lunar New Year holiday despite subdued imports.
* Copper inventories in SHFE warehouses jumped by 61.8% since January 20 to 226,509 tonnes on February 3.


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -3.18% at 284.85 as investors fretted about a slow demand recovery in top consumer China and the U.S. dollar held firm. Citi Research economists said they believed a softer-than-anticipated China recovery and sustained manufacturing-sector weakness outside China would keep metals demand under pressure. China's refined zinc output was 620,000 mt in December 2022, up 4% year-on-year. On the one hand, a large zinc smelter in north-west China completed its annual production target ahead of schedule and controlled its output in December. Despite the above-mentioned output decline, the refine zinc production in December still climbed thanks to the full-capacity operation of smelters in Shaanxi and concentrated production resumption of smelters in Sichuan. LME zinc inventories remain on the decline despite a slower drop, according to LME data. LME zinc stocks hit a multiple-year low and currently stand at 17,425 mt. SHFE zinc inventories grew for four weeks on end, and stood at 44,248 mt, with a weekly gain of 26.07%, the highest in two and a half months. Data shows that the zinc ingot social inventories across seven major markets in China totalled 174,100 mt as of February 3, up 70,600 mt from a week ago and up 16,200 mt from this Monday (January 30). Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.13% to settle at 2325 while prices are down -9.35 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 280.6 and below same could see a test of 276.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 291.8, a move above could see prices testing 298.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 276.3-298.7.
* Zinc dropped as investors fretted about a slow demand recovery in top consumer China and the U.S. dollar held firm.
* China's refined zinc output was 620,000 mt in December 2022, up 4% year-on-year.
* Data shows that the zinc ingot social inventories in China totalled 174,100 mt as of February 3, up 70,600 mt from a week ago



Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.84% at 223.3 as soft global demand weighed on sentiment despite the latest supply disruptions. Aluminium ingot social inventory stood at 1.05 million mt as of Thursday February 2, up 303,000 mt from before the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday January 20 and 61,000 mt from this Monday January 30. The Caixin China General Services PMI increased to 52.9 in January 2023 from 48.0 in December. This was the first expansion in the service sector since last August supported by a rebound in business activity and new work, amid lifting Covid-zero policies and a recovery in customer demand. Both activity and new work increased for the first time in 5 months. The modest upturn in new work was supported by higher customer numbers, particularly with the relaxation of rules around travel, but also improved foreign demand. The premiums for aluminium shipments to Japanese buyers for January to March were set at $85-$86 a tonne, down 13%-14% from the previous quarter, reflecting slack demand and high stocks. The figures are lower than the $99 per tonne paid in the October-December quarter and mark a fifth consecutive quarterly decline and the lowest premium since the July-September quarter of 2020. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -9.8% to settle at 4004 while prices are down -1.9 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 222 and below same could see a test of 220.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 225.3, a move above could see prices testing 227.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 220.6-227.2.
* Aluminum dropped as soft global demand weighed on sentiment despite the latest supply disruptions.
* Aluminium ingot social inventory stood at 1.05 million mt as of Thursday February 2, up 303,000 mt
* The Caixin China General Composite PMI climbed to 51.1 in January 2023 from 48.3 in the previous month.


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -1.06% at 1014.9 on profit booking after prices gained on improving export demand especially from China. Mentha exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has dropped by 18.10 percent at 1,485.25 tonnes as compared to 1,813.38 tonnes exported during Apr- 2022 2021. In the month of November 2022 around 236.22 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 141.82 tonnes in October 2022 showing a rise of 66.56%. In the month of November 2022 around 236.22 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 249.26 tonnes in November 2021 showing a drop of 5.23%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -4.1 Rupees to end at 1175.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.11% to settle at 942 while prices are down -10.9 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1010.4 and below same could see a test of 1005.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1022.2, a move above could see prices testing 1029.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1005.9-1029.5.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -4.1 Rupees to end at 1175.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil dropped on profit booking after prices gained on improving export demand especially from China.
* Mentha exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has dropped by 18.10 percent at 1,485.25 tonnes
* In the month of November 2022 around 236.22 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 249.26 tonnes in November 2021


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.87% at 7384 on reports that production is projected lower by 5 per cent in Telangana due to overall drop in acreage and 20 per cent in Karnataka due to rot disease. The country’s production is estimated at 13.14 lt against 13.29 lt with heavy rains waterlogging the fields and affecting the output. The area under cultivation is lower in most parts of the country, barring Maharashtra. However, there has been no major pest attack and hence, due to the rise in overall area under the crop, the production was expected to be 10 per cent higher. Turmeric exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has rose by 9.90 percent at 1,11,968.51 tonnes as compared to 1,01,882.03 tonnes exported during Apr-Nov 2021. In the month of November 2022 around 12,398.63 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 11,178.11 tonnes in October 2022 showing a rise of 10.92%. In the month of November 2022 around 12,398.63 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,255.64tonnes in November 2021 showing a rise of 1.17%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7216.4 Rupees dropped -0.05 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.86% to settle at 13170 while prices are up 64 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7296 and below same could see a test of 7208 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7456, a move above could see prices testing 7528.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7208-7528.
* Turmeric gains on reports that production is projected lower by 5 per cent in Telangana and 20 per cent in Karnataka.
* The country’s production is estimated at 13.14 lt against 13.29 lt with heavy rains waterlogging the fields and affecting the output.
* The area under cultivation is lower in most parts of the country, barring Maharashtra.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7216.4 Rupees dropped -0.05 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 3.7% at 34205 amid reduced sowing in Gujarat, coupled with a tight supply, and climatic uncertainties. Projections of lower carryover stock and fears of sowing in key growing regions of Gujarat being affected. Sowing In Gujarat, dropped by nearly -8% with 274,995.00 hectares against sown area of 2021 which was 300,401.00 hectares. Prices gained to all time high amid higher demand for the fresh crop and supply tightness in the physical market. Good demand expected from China in December-January and Ramzan demand during January-February from gulf & other countries. Jeera exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has dropped by 17.40 percent at 133,250.24 tonnes as compared to 161,317.94 tonnes exported during Apr-Nov 2021. In the month of November 2022 around 11,235.11 tonnes jeera was exported as against 12,427.86 tonnes in October 2022 showing a drop of 9.60%. In the month of November 2022 around 11,235.11 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 10,838.83 tonnes in November 2021 showing a rise of 3.66%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 973.7 Rupees to end at 33173.65 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.14% to settle at 4281 while prices are up 1220 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 33255 and below same could see a test of 32305 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 34900, a move above could see prices testing 35595.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 32305-35595.
* Jeera gained amid reduced sowing in Gujarat, coupled with a tight supply, and climatic uncertainties.
* Projections of lower carryover stock and fears of sowing in key growing regions of Gujarat being affected.
* Sowing in Gujarat, dropped by nearly -10% with 275,832.00 hectares against sown area of 2021-22 which was 307,135.00 hectares.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 973.7 Rupees to end at 33173.65 Rupees per 100 kg.

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