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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.27% at 56969 as the dollar's retreat amid expectations for a less-aggressive interest rate hike strategy from the U.S. central bank made bullion a more attractive bet. Prices also rose backed by expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve might increase rates by only 25 basis points at each of its first two meetings this year, after slowing its pace to 50 bps in December 2022. India plans to slash the import duty on gold because higher taxes have made it more profitable for smugglers, who can offer hefty discounts and denting the market share of banks and refiners. The duty cut by the world's second-biggest consumer could lift retail sales by making gold cheaper ahead of peak demand season and support global prices. It could also revive operations of local gold refineries, which nearly suspended refining for the past two months as they could not compete with grey market operators. Swiss exports of gold to countries including China, Turkey, Singapore and Thailand surged to multi-year highs last year, Swiss customs data showed, as low prices boosted demand from consumers in Asia and the Middle East. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -11.95% to settle at 7467 while prices are up 154 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 56787 and below same could see a test of 56606 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 57137, a move above could see prices testing 57306.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 56606-57306.
* Gold prices rose to 57000 level as the dollar's retreat amid expectations for a less-aggressive interest rate hike strategy from Fed
* U.S. Q4 GDP growth estimates due on Thursday
* India plans to cut gold import duty to arrest smuggling


Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.85% at 68542 amid a dollar weakness, as weakening US economic data and recent comments from Federal Reserve officials signaled a less aggressive monetary tightening ahead. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that upcoming rate moves and an expected continued decline in inflation left policy “pretty close” to being “sufficiently restrictive,” favoring a smaller 25 basis point increase at the next meeting. Investors now look ahead to a raft of US data that could guide the rates outlook including Q4 GDP growth rate, durable goods orders, the PCE price index and personal income and spending data. Gold is highly sensitive to the rates outlook as higher interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, and vice versa. The S&P Global US Composite PMI rose to 46.6 in January from 45 in December, pointing to a seventh consecutive month of contraction in the country's private sector but the slowest since last October, a preliminary estimate showed. Activity in both service and manufacturing sectors fell at a slower pace, even as companies continued to highlight subdued customer demand and the impact of high inflation on client spending. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 4.55% to settle at 17361 while prices are up 578 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 67994 and below same could see a test of 67447 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 68894, a move above could see prices testing 69247.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 67447-69247.
* Silver rose amid a dollar weakness amid weakening US economic data
* Support also seen amid recent comments from Federal Reserve officials signaled a less aggressive monetary tightening ahead.
* COMEX inventories remained under pressure and LBMA stockpiles dropped considerably amid outflows to India.


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -2.13% at 6562 amid concerns about a global economic slowdown and expected build in U.S. oil inventories. Bank JP Morgan raised its forecast for Chinese crude demand but maintained its projection for a 2023 price average of $90 a barrel for Brent crude. Crude oil prices in physical markets have started the year with a rally on increased buying from China after the relaxation of pandemic controls and on trader concern that sanctions on Russia could tighten supply. Euro zone business activity made a surprise return to modest growth in January, S&P Global's flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed, but British private sector economic activity fell at its fastest rate in two years. Both the IEA and OPEC offered a bullish outlook for 2023, saying that the reopening of the Chinese economy will boost demand. Weakening US economic data also bolstered bets for a slower pace of Federal Reserve rate hikes, with Fed officials backing a smaller 25 basis point increase at the next meeting. On the supply side, the EU and G7 nations are set to cap prices of refined Russian products starting in February, on top of the price cap imposed on Russian crude and an EU embargo on imports of Russian oil by sea that took effect in December. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -10.6% to settle at 5111 while prices are down -143 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6501 and below same could see a test of 6439 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6671, a move above could see prices testing 6779.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6439-6779.
* Crudeoil dropped amid concerns about a global economic slowdown and expected build in U.S. oil inventories.
* Bank JP Morgan raised its forecast for Chinese crude demand but maintained its projection for a 2023 price average of $90 a barrel for Brent crude.
* Both the IEA and OPEC offered a bullish outlook for 2023, saying that the reopening of the Chinese economy will boost demand


Natural gas
Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -0.04% at 256.3 on expectations of lower demand after forecasts pointed to a milder weather in the next 2 weeks. US natural gas production is likely to grow more than 2% this year to a record daily average of 100.3 billion cubic feet, the Energy Information Administration said. At the same time, EIA data showed that utilities unexpectedly injected 11 bcf into storage in the week ending January 13th. Meanwhile, investors continue to monitor the situation at the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas, which was expected to restart operation in the second half of the month, even though it was still pending regulatory approvals. U.S. gas stockpiles are about 1% above the five-year (2018-2022) average for this time of year. Meanwhile, recent increases in crude futures to a seven-week high boosted oil's premium over gas to its highest since March 2022. Over the last several years that premium has prompted U.S. energy firms to focus drilling activity on finding more oil instead of gas. With colder weather coming, Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would jump from 121.5 bcfd this week to 130.3 bcfd next week and 139.7 bcfd in two weeks. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 3.88% to settle at 30136 while prices are down -0.1 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 249.3 and below same could see a test of 242.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 268.8, a move above could see prices testing 281.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 242.3-281.3.
* Natural gas settled flat on expectations of lower demand after forecasts pointed to a milder weather in the next 2 weeks.
* Still, soaring domestic production and high storage levels capped further gains.
* US natural gas production is likely to grow more than 2% this year to a record daily average of 100.3 billion cubic feet.



Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.59% at 785.95 on improving prospects for demand in top consumer China, low inventories and a weaker dollar. Chile's Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, produced 172,000 less tonnes of copper in 2022 compared to 2021, the company's chairman said. Speaking to the association of engineers during a presentation in Santiago, chairman Maximo Pacheco said 77% of the reduction was due to problems with operations while 23% was due to project delays. Traders are watching copper inventories in LME-registered warehouses, which at 78,300 tonnes are heading towards 10-month lows hit last November. Cancelled warrants at 37% of the total suggest more copper is due to leave LME warrant. The world's refined copper market saw an 89,000 tonne deficit in November, compared with a surplus of 68,000 tonnes in October, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. World refined copper output in November was 2.2 million tonnes, while consumption was 2.3 million tonnes. For the first eleven months of 2022, the market was in a 384,000 tonne deficit compared with a 381,000 tonne deficit in the same period a year earlier, the ICSG said. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 4.91% to settle at 4812 while prices are up 4.6 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 782.5 and below same could see a test of 779 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 788.6, a move above could see prices testing 791.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 779-791.2.
* Copper prices rose on improving prospects for demand in top consumer China, low inventories and a weaker dollar.
* Chile's Codelco produced 172,000 less tonnes of copper in 2022
* Worries about supplies from Peru due to social unrest are also helping to support copper prices.


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.1% at 298.65 on profit booking as trade remained lacklustre due to the Lunar New Year holidays in top consumer China. The demand is expected to rise after Beijing in December dropped some of the toughest COVID restrictions, which had battered the world's second-biggest economy. However, concerns linger over a possible surge in infections, as the country reopens and New Year celebrations begin. London Metal Exchange zinc inventories have tumbled to the lowest levels in more than three decades, but rising stocks and tepid demand in top metals consumer China are helping to dampen concern about potential shortages. Shutdowns of some European zinc smelters this year due to high power prices has been a key reason behind low LME stocks of the metal mostly used for galvanising steel. Three-month LME zinc rallied along with other base metals in recent weeks as speculators cheered the reopening of China from COVID-19 restrictions, touching the highest in over four months. Some investors have also highlighted a slide in LME zinc stocks, which have plummeted 89% over the past 12 months to 20,000 tonnes, the weakest since July 1989. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 13.75% to settle at 2623 while prices are up 0.3 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 294.4 and below same could see a test of 290.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 302.1, a move above could see prices testing 305.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 290.1-305.5.
* Zinc dropped on profit booking as trade remained lacklustre due to the Lunar New Year holidays in top consumer China.
* The demand is expected to rise after Beijing in December dropped some of the toughest COVID restrictions.
* However, concerns linger over a possible surge in infections, as the country reopens and New Year celebrations begin.



Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.64% at 227.65 on bets of a demand recovery in top consumer China after it removed COVID-19 restrictions and amid expectations of a slowdown in the pace of U.S. rate hikes. Global primary aluminium output in December rose 6.12% year on year to 5.859 million tonnes, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. Estimated Chinese production was 3.47 million tonnes in December, the IAI said. China's aluminium imports in 2022 fell 25.6% from a year earlier as COVID-restrictions reduced consumption amid record high domestic production. Last year, the world's biggest aluminium producer and consumer brought in 2.39 million tonnes of unwrought aluminium and products, which includes primary metal and unwrought, alloyed aluminium, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. Demand for the light metal used in construction, transportation and packaging sectors was hampered by China's strict anti-coronavirus measures and its ailing property sector. Economic growth in the world's second-largest economy in 2022 slumped to one of its worst levels in nearly half. The aluminium ingot social inventories across China’s eight major markets stood at 744,000 mt as of January 19, up 102,000 mt or 15.8% from a week ago and 252,000 mt from the end of December. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 29.34% to settle at 5189 while prices are up 1.45 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 226.2 and below same could see a test of 224.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 228.6, a move above could see prices testing 229.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 224.6-229.4.
* Aluminum gains on bets of a demand recovery in China after it removed COVID-19 restrictions
* Global aluminium output rises 6.1% y/y in December – IAI
* China 2022 aluminium imports fall 26% on lower demand


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.6% at 1019.9 on improving export demand especially from China. Mentha exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has dropped by 18.10 percent at 1,485.25 tonnes as compared to 1,813.38 tonnes exported during Apr- 2022 2021. In the month of November 2022 around 236.22 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 141.82 tonnes in October 2022 showing a rise of 66.56%. In the month of November 2022 around 236.22 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 249.26 tonnes in November 2021 showing a drop of 5.23%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 13.2 Rupees to end at 1179.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 7.84% to settle at 949 while prices are up 6.1 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1015.1 and below same could see a test of 1010.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1023.9, a move above could see prices testing 1027.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1010.2-1027.8.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 13.2 Rupees to end at 1179.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices gained on improving export demand especially from China.
* Mentha exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has dropped by 18.10 percent at 1,485.25 tonnes
* In the month of November 2022 around 236.22 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 249.26 tonnes in November 2021


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.13% at 7874 on an “unexpected” slump in domestic and export demand. Turmeric production in the 2021-22 crop year (June-July) has been projected at 13.31 lakh tonnes against 11.24 lakh tonnes the previous year with the area increasing to 3.5 lakh hectares from 2.93 lakh hectares. In the first advance estimate, the crop was pegged at 11.76 lakh tonnes. Turmeric exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has rose by 9.90 percent at 1,11,968.51 tonnes as compared to 1,01,882.03 tonnes exported during Apr-Nov 2021. In the month of November 2022 around 12,398.63 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 11,178.11 tonnes in October 2022 showing a rise of 10.92%. In the month of November 2022 around 12,398.63 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,255.64tonnes in November 2021 showing a rise of 1.17%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7381.15 Rupees dropped -40.1 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.65% to settle at 12360 while prices are down -10 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7822 and below same could see a test of 7768 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7938, a move above could see prices testing 8000.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7768-8000.
* Turmeric prices dropped on an “unexpected” slump in domestic and export demand.
* Turmeric production in 2023 has been projected at 5.13 Lakh Mt against 4.67 Lakh Mt the previous year
* Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7381.15 Rupees dropped -40.1 Rupees.


Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.53% at 32385 amid reduced sowing in Gujarat, coupled with a tight supply, and climatic uncertainties. Projections of lower carryover stock and fears of sowing in key growing regions of Gujarat being affected. Sowing In Gujarat, dropped by nearly -8% with 274,995.00 hectares against sown area of 2021 which was 300,401.00 hectares. Prices gained to all time high amid higher demand for the fresh crop and supply tightness in the physical market. Good demand expected from China in December-January and Ramzan demand during January-February from gulf & other countries. Jeera exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has dropped by 17.40 percent at 133,250.24 tonnes as compared to 161,317.94 tonnes exported during Apr-Nov 2021. In the month of November 2022 around 11,235.11 tonnes jeera was exported as against 12,427.86 tonnes in October 2022 showing a drop of 9.60%. In the month of November 2022 around 11,235.11 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 10,838.83 tonnes in November 2021 showing a rise of 3.66%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -639.45 Rupees to end at 32498.05 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.26% to settle at 4695 while prices are up 170 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 31930 and below same could see a test of 31475 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 32655, a move above could see prices testing 32925.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 31475-32925.
* Jeera prices gained amid reduced sowing in Gujarat, coupled with a tight supply, and climatic uncertainties.
* Projections of lower carryover stock and fears of sowing in key growing regions of Gujarat being affected.
* Sowing in Gujarat, dropped by nearly -10% with 275,832.00 hectares against sown area of 2021-22 which was 307,135.00 hectares.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -639.45 Rupees to end at 32498.05 Rupees per 100 kg.

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