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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.3% at 50281 as the dollar index gained further ground above the 110 mark, reaching levels not seen since June 2002, as investors brace for more interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. Traders' focus shifts to the European Central Bank's rate action when it meets on Thursday. The market also expects a big interest rate hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve in its Sept. 20-21 policy meeting. U.S. data showed moderate wage growth in August and a rise in the unemployment rate to 3.7% suggested the labor market was starting to loosen. US employers hired slightly more workers than expected in August, although the unemployment rate surprisingly rose to 3.7% and wages gained slightly less than anticipated. India's gold imports in August halved from a year ago as volatility in local prices because of movements in overseas benchmark prices and the weak rupee prompted consumers to postpone purchases. The country had imported 61 tonnes of gold in August, compared with 121 tonnes a year earlier. In value terms, August imports fell to $3.52 billion from $6.7 billion a year ago. Australia's Perth Mint increased gold product sales in July by 21.5% from the previous month. Monthly sales of gold coins and minted bars increased to 79,305 ounces from 65,281 ounces in June. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.6% to settled at 11659 while prices down -152 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 50109 and below same could see a test of 49938 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 50572, a move above could see prices testing 50864.
Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 49938-50864.
* Gold prices dropped as the dollar index gained further ground above the 110 mark, reaching levels not seen since June 2002
* Further lingering worries around rapid interest rate hikes globally to tame inflation kept bullion under pressure.
* Volatile prices dent India's August gold imports
 

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.46% at 53146 as the dollar and Treasury yields climbed amid expectations for aggressive monetary policy tightening by major central banks. The U.S. services industry picked up again in August for the second straight month amid stronger order growth and employment, while supply bottlenecks and price pressures eased, reinforcing the view that the economy was not in recession despite output sinking in the first half of the year. The Institute for Supply Management said its non-manufacturing PMI edged up to a reading of 56.9 last month from 56.7 in July, the second consecutive monthly increase after three months of declines. The US central bank signaled that it would prioritize the fight against inflation over growth headwinds, with markets currently priced for another 75 bps rate increase this month. On top of that, recessionary fears in the eurozone exacerbated by a worsening energy crisis and fresh coronavirus-induced lockdowns in China also drove safe-haven flows into the dollar. This dollar’s strength was seen across the board, but some of the most pronounced buying activity was against commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars. China announced a slew of measures, including increased debt issuances and infrastructure spending to shore up the flagging economy. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.66% to settled at 27836 while prices down -244 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 52717 and below same could see a test of 52287 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 53961, a move above could see prices testing 54775.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 52287-54775.
* Silver dropped as the dollar and Treasury yields climbed amid expectations for aggressive monetary policy tightening by major central banks.
* Dollar hits fresh 20-year peak
* U.S. service sector keeps momentum in August; price pressures ease

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -2.61% at 6933 as concern returned about weaker demand and the prospect of more interest rate hikes, trumping support from OPEC+'s first output target cut since 2020. New COVID-19 lockdowns in China have added to worries that high inflation and rate hikes will hit demand. The European Central Bank is widely expected to lift rates sharply when it meets on Thursday. OPEC and its allies led by Russia agreed a small oil production cut to bolster prices that have slid on fears of an economic slowdown. The oil producers will cut output by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd), amounting to only 0.1% of global demand, for October. The European Union's foreign policy chief said on Monday he was less hopeful about a quick revival of the deal. U.S. shipments of crude oil via rail in June rose by 52,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the previous month to 289,000 bpd, according to data by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. U.S. crude oil production rose in June by 1.7% to its highest since April 2020, according to a monthly report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Oil production rose to about 11.8 million barrels per day in June from about 11.6 million bpd the month prior, the report showed. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 48.75% to settled at 9904 while prices down -186 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6837 and below same could see a test of 6741 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7097, a move above could see prices testing 7261.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6741-7261.
*  Crude slides as demand fears return after OPEC-led rally
* New COVID-19 lockdowns in China have added to worries that high inflation and rate hikes will hit demand.
* U.S. oil output rises 1.7% June to highest since April 2020 – EIA
 

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -6% at 655.9 on forecasts for lower demand as the weather across the US is expected to turn less hot. Still, expectations of increased demand for US LNG exports amid growing concerns of European shortages should limit much of the downside momentum. In the latest developments, Russia's state-owned Gazprom has reversed its plan to resume flows through the Nord Stream pipeline and shut it indefinitely, citing maintenance requirements, prompting European governments to intervene in energy markets. Meanwhile, Freeport LNG announced that it would delay the restart of its Quintana export plant to November. The restart delay at the fire-hit Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas, leaves more fuel in the U.S. for utilities to refill storage. The second-biggest U.S. LNG export plant was consuming about 2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas before it shut. Dutch and British wholesale gas prices were mostly down due to comfortable storage levels, price cap concerns and continued EU gas demand reduction proposals. A federal report showed U.S. utilities added 61 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended Aug. 26. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 26.71% to settled at 5494 while prices down -41.9 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 636.3 and below same could see a test of 616.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 691.2, a move above could see prices testing 726.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 616.7-726.5.
* Natural gas dropped on forecasts for lower demand as the weather across the US is expected to turn less hot.
* Russia's state-owned Gazprom has reversed its plan to resume flows through the Nord Stream pipeline and shut it indefinitely
* Freeport LNG announced that it would delay the restart of its Quintana export plant to November.

Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.11% at 641.05 as policymakers in top consumer China renewed their pledge to support its economy and said they would accelerate infrastructure spending this quarter, potentially boosting demand for metals. Supply-side issues such as low inventories and reduced output also lifted prices, with copper inventories in China bonded warehouses falling to a record low at 142,200 tonnes. In Peru, the world’s second-largest producer of the metal, copper output fell 6.6% year-on-year in July to 195,234 tonnes after two of the country’s largest mines underperformed, Reuters reported. In China, meanwhile, the central bank moved to support the yuan and officials signalled a renewed sense of urgency on economic stimulus that should support metals demand. The PBOC previously cut the FX reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions by 100 basis points in April, in a bid to rein in a sliding yuan and make it less expensive for banks to hold dollars. Chile's Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, expects its output of the red metal to fall further next year amid project delays. Codelco lowered its copper production outlook for 2022 to about 1.5 million tonnes last week, blaming lower recovery levels at some of its mines and ore grades at the Chuquicamata site. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.14% to settled at 5883 while prices up 0.7 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 636.8 and below same could see a test of 632.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 647.3, a move above could see prices testing 653.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 632.4-653.4.
* Copper edges higher on China stimulus
* Supply-side issues such as low inventories and reduced output also lifted prices
* Copper inventories in China bonded warehouses falling to a record low at 142,200 tonnes.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.73% at 285.7 amid pessimism on the macro front and falling economic readings amid inflation control, on the combination of plummeting energy prices and surging US Dollar. The August China Caixin Services PMI was higher than the estimate with a reading of 55, against the previous print of 55.5. In addition, the People's Bank of China also decided to lower the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio for financial institutions. The central bank moved to support the yuan and officials signalled a renewed sense of urgency on economic stimulus that should support metals demand. Chinese officials said the third quarter of this year is crucial for rolling out stimulus measures and promised fresh policy steps to follow a stimulus package released in May. PBOC cuts forex reserve requirement ratio by two ppts to 6% from 8%. Zinc ingot social inventory across seven markets in China totaled 121,700 mt last Friday, down 1,800 mt from a week ago. Traders reassessed the outlook for Federal Reserve rate hikes following a lackluster US jobs report, while remaining cautious about anti-virus lockdowns in top metals consumer China that weakened the demand outlook. US employers hired slightly more workers than expected in August, although the unemployment rate surprisingly rose to 3.7% and wages gained slightly less than anticipated. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.72% to settled at 1573 while prices down -2.1 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 282.1 and below same could see a test of 278.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 290.4, a move above could see prices testing 295.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 278.6-295.2.
* Zinc dropped amid pessimism on the macro front and falling economic readings amid inflation control
* The August China Caixin Services PMI was higher than the estimate with a reading of 55, against the previous print of 55.5.
* In addition, the People's Bank of China also decided to lower the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio for financial institutions.

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -1.46% at 199.4 as a strong dollar and worries over economic growth overshadowed production cuts in Europe. Pushing it up are an energy crisis in Europe and strict COVID-19 controls in China that have slowed economic activity and hammered the yuan and euro. Sky-high energy prices in Europe have forced smelters to reduce output with France's biggest aluminium smelter the latest to cut but they also harm other industries, shrinking demand. Aluminium smelters in Europe have already cut capacity by a million tonnes since energy prices began rising in 2021 and analysts are braced for more. Norwegian aluminium maker Norsk Hydro is keeping a small portion of its capacity in Norway offline after maintenance due to a drop in demand for the metal. Hydro has decided not to restart smelting pots at its Karmoey and Husnes plants, effectively curbing output by "a few tens of thousands of tonnes" out of the 1.1 million tonnes the company produces in Norway every year. France's Aluminium Dunkerque would cut production by one-fifth and Norsk Hydro said it would keep a small portion of its capacity in Norway offline after maintenance. However, aluminium stocks in LME-registered warehouses rose by 31,325 tonnes to 308,375 tonnes, easing supply worries. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.24% to settled at 5133 while prices down -2.95 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 198 and below same could see a test of 196.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 202.2, a move above could see prices testing 204.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 196.5-204.9.
*  Aluminium prices fell as a strong dollar and worries over economic growth overshadowed production cuts in Europe.
* Aluminium stocks in LME-registered warehouses rose by 31,325 tonnes to 308,375 tonnes, easing supply worries.
* Norsk Hydro keeps some aluminium capacity offline due to weaker demand

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.92% at 1013.7 amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. However, upside seen limited as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year we forecast production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. Mentha exports during Apr-June 2022 has dropped by 5.75 percent at 493.45 tonnes as compared to 523.54 tonnes exported during Apr-June 2021. In the month of June 2022 around 113.33 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 209.90 tonnes in May 2022 showing a drop of 46%.In the month of June 2022 around 113.33 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 169.93 tonnes in June 2021 showing a decline of over 33%. In the month of May 2022 around 209.90 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 179.76 tonnes in May 2021 showing a rise of 16.77%. In Spot market, support seen after IMD issues Yellow Alert in key sowing area ; light-moderate rain to continue till Sept 4 impacting arrival in the mandi. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -14.6 Rupees to end at 1143.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.36% to settled at 1537 while prices up 9.2 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1004.7 and below same could see a test of 995.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1020.4, a move above could see prices testing 1027.
Trading Ideas:
*  Mentha oil trading range for the day is 995.6-1027.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -14.6 Rupees to end at 1143.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices gained amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic.
* Mentha exports during Apr-June 2022 has dropped by 5.75 percent at 493.45 tonnes as compared to 523.54 tonnes exported during Apr-June 2021.
* In the month of June 2022 around 113.33 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 209.90 tonnes in May 2022 showing a drop of 46%.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.25% at 7224 on some low level buying after prices seen pressure on report of better sowing. The Product Advisory Committee (PAC) on turmeric has rejected calls for banning futures trade in the commodity, claiming that it has not found any unusual movement in its price. As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, sowing activity completed around 7,958 hectares as compared to last year same period 7,764 hectares. Sufficient stocks and good sowing reports kept turmeric prices under pressure. Turmeric exports during Apr-June 2022 has rose by 23.44 percent at 49,435.38 tonnes as compared to 40,049.06 tonnes exported during Apr-June 2021. In the month of June 2022 around 18,532.00 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 17,137.15 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 8.13%. In the month of June 2022 around 18,532.00 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 13,206.00 tonnes in June 2021 showing an increase of 40.33%. In the month of May 2022 around 17,138.35 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 13,576.68 tonnes in May 2021 showing an increase of 26.23%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7399 Rupees dropped -39.8 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.27% to settled at 7990 while prices up 18 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7162 and below same could see a test of 7100 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7272, a move above could see prices testing 7320.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7100-7320.
* Turmeric gained on some low level buying after prices seen pressure on report of better sowing.
* In the ongoing season, no major quality concerns were observed in the crop arrived in the Marathwada region.
* In the month of June 2022 around 18,532.00 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 17,137.15 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 8.13%.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7399 Rupees dropped -39.8 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -1.93% at 25140 amid profit booking after prices seen supported as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks in expectations of higher prices in coming months. Arrivals also observed to be less during the month. Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month supported by decrease in arrivals in Rajasthan as well as in Gujarat. Jeera exports during Apr-June 2022 has dropped by 42.98 percent at 47,190.98 tonnes as compared to 82,762.08 tonnes exported during Apr-June 2021. In the month of June 2022 around 21,587.63 tonnes jeera was exported as against 14,894.62 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 44.94%. In the month of June 2022 around 21,587.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 30,989.86 tonnes in June 2021 showing a decrease of 30.34%. In the month of May 2022 around 14,894.62 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 20,693.76 tonnes in May 2021 showing a decrease of 28.03%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -2.15 Rupees to end at 24612.5 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.05% to settled at 5628 while prices down -495 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 24835 and below same could see a test of 24530 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 25535, a move above could see prices testing 25930.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 24530-25930.
* Jeera dropped amid profit booking after prices seen supported as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks
* Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -2.15 Rupees to end at 24612.5 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled flat at 36470 as pressure seen amid higher crop size coupled with low demand amidst global economic weakness. India’s cotton output for the season 2022-23 is likely to touch 375 lakh bales (each of 170 kg), given no climatic adversities affect the crop during October, sources said. Cotton area is estimated at 126 lakh hectares till September 2 — up 8-9 per cent from 117 lakh hectares last year. Atul Ganatra, President, Cotton Association of India (CAI), stated that the cotton crop condition in India was "very good and if everything goes well, we are expecting 350 lakh bales +/– 25 lakh bales." The crop size may touch 375 lakh bales if there are no rains during October. If it rains during October, when the cotton bolls are open in the irrigated fields, it may hamper the quality. In its monthly supply-demand report, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) cut its global production forecast by 3.1 million bales, and the U.S. output outlook by 3 million bales for the 2022-23 crop year. Hot and dry weather conditions in key growing areas in the United States have threatened the condition of the natural fiber crop and raised supply concerns. In recent time, the heavy rainfalls and pest attacks are affecting the cotton crop. In the northern states of Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan cotton crop has been affected due to pink bollworm infestation. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -960 Rupees to end at 43330 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.9% to settled at 661 while prices remain unchanged 0 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 36280 and below same could see a test of 36080 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 36650, a move above could see prices testing 36820.
Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 36080-36820.
* Cotton seen pressured amid higher crop size coupled with low demand amidst global economic weakness.
* India’s cotton output for the season 2022-23 is likely to touch 375 lakh bales
* Cotton area is estimated at 126 lakh hectares till September 2 — up 8-9 per cent from 117 lakh hectares last year.
* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -960 Rupees to end at 43330 Rupees.

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