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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.51% at 49150 due to rise in U.S. Treasury yields amid the U.S. Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on rate hikes. Global economic growth is set to slow sharply to 2.2% in 2022, revised down from a June forecast of 2.8%, according to OECD. Disruptions to energy supplies due to the war in Ukraine and the generalized tightening of monetary policy are weakening the economic outlook, as inflation remains high for longer than expected. Last week, the U.S. central bank hiked interest rates by 75 basis points and signalled more increases are to come. Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields firmed near their highest level since 2011, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-interest bearing gold. China's net gold imports via Hong Kong jumped nearly 40% to an over four-year high in August, data showed, as demand continued to rebound in the world's biggest consumer of the metal. Net imports stood at their highest since June 2018 at 68.227 tonnes in August, compared with 48.773 tonnes in July, data from the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department showed. Meanwhile, total gold imports via Hong Kong, which include re-exports, were up nearly 33.3% to 71.855 tonnes. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -11.03% to settle at 5937 while prices are down -599 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 49081 and below same could see a test of 48762 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 49888, a move above could see prices testing 50376.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 48731-49897.
* Gold dropped due to rise in U.S. Treasury yields amid the U.S. Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on rate hikes.
* U.S. 10-Treasury yields hover near 11-year highs
* Dollar scales fresh two-decade peak


Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -1.57% at 55352 as remained in range as the monetary tightening momentum by the Federal Reserve drove investors into the interest-baring US dollar instead and out of bullion investments. Along with rate hikes my major central banks, the Fed raised its funds rate by 7 bps for the 3rd straight time and projected that borrowing could reach as high as 4.6% by March 2023. Outside of bullion, a slowdown in the global economy is reducing the consumption of electronics and automobiles, while sales of silver jewelry from major consumers China and India were also hampered this year. In addition, progress toward green technologies, such as solar panel production suffered a setback as China and India take advantage of affordable oil and gas from Russia while Europe is returning to coal as an energy alternative. On the data front, this week's trading may be impacted by reaction to reports on durable goods orders, consumer confidence, new home sales and personal income and spending. The much-anticipated growth figures of the U.S. GDP and a batch of speeches from Federal Reserve officials including Bullard, Bowman and Powell would also be keenly watched. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 19.89% to settle at 18788 while prices are down -1794 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 55420 and below same could see a test of 54608 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 57647, a move above could see prices testing 59062.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 54243-57365.
* Silver remained in range as the monetary tightening momentum by the Federal Reserve drove investors into the interest-baring US dollar.
* Silver$ hits lowest level since Sept. 8
* Fed raised its funds rate by 7 bps for the 3rd straight time and projected that borrowing could reach as high as 4.6% by March 2023.


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -1.43% at 6334 driven down by an expected decline in fuel demand as rising interest rates raise the likelihood of global recession, with further price pressure coming from a surging U.S. dollar. Global oil stocks are set to rise next year amid weakening demand and a stronger U.S. dollar, OPEC will have to cut output to reduce supply if they want prices to remain supported. Disruptions in the oil market from the Russia-Ukraine war, with European Union sanctions banning Russian crude set to start in December, has lent some support to prices. Attention is turning to what the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, together known as OPEC+, will do when they meet on Oct. 5, having agreed at their previous meeting to cut output modestly. However, OPEC+ is producing well below its targeted output, meaning that a further cut may not have much impact on supply. Data last week showed OPEC+ missed its target by 3.58 million barrels per day in August, a bigger shortfall than in July. A report from Baker Hughes said the number of oil rigs in the U.S. increased by three to 602 in the week ending September 23. The number of US gas rigs fell by two to 160 during the week. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 110.87% to settle at 11037 while prices are down -381 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6273 and below same could see a test of 6120 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6684, a move above could see prices testing 6942.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6114-6690.
* Crude oil prices fell driven down by an expected decline in fuel demand as rising interest rates raise the likelihood of global recession.
* APPEC – Oil stocks to rise on slower demand, OPEC cuts needed to bolster prices
* A report from Baker Hughes said the number of oil rigs in the U.S. increased by three to 602 in the week ending September 23.


Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 1.33% at 563.1 despite a drop in crude prices and expectations the weather will remain mild into early October, keeping both heating and cooling demand low and allowing utilities to inject lots of gas into storage over the next few weeks. In addition, the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) projected that Tropical Depression 9 will strengthen into a hurricane as it moves from the Caribbean Sea to the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days before hitting South Florida on Wednesday. The latest EIA report showed that US utilities injected 103 billion cubic feet (bcf) of natural gas into underground storage, well above the median estimates of a 93 bcf injection. Prices were already under pressure amid record domestic production levels and forecasts for milder weather through early October. Adding to the bearish outlook were expectations that demand would fall further in October when the Cove Point liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant in Maryland shuts down for maintenance. Natural gas futures were still up around 100% this year as soaring prices in Europe and Asia keep demand for US LNG exports firm. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -25.01% to settle at 3772 while prices are down -37.9 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 536.4 and below same could see a test of 517.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 582.6, a move above could see prices testing 609.5.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 518.8-589.2.
* Natural gas closed up despite forecasts for milder weather that sent them down early in the session to their lowest since July 15.
* The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 103 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended Sept. 16.
* Pressure also seen amid expectations gas demand would decline next month when the Cove Point LNG plant shuts for a couple weeks of maintenance in October.


Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -1.26% at 628.1 weighed down by aggressive monetary tightening around the world that stoked fears of a global recession and dampened metals demand. The US Federal Reserve led the charge with its third straight 75 basis point rate hike to bring down inflation, along with increases by the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank, among others. Economic uncertainties in top metals consumer China also weighed on sentiment after Nomura and Goldman Sachs lowered their growth forecasts for the country, citing expectations that its strict zero-Covid strategy would extend well into next year. The recent downturn in prices and the under-investment that ensues also threaten to exacerbate the scenario, according to a Bloomberg report. Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 2.9 % from last Friday, the exchange said. The global refined copper market showed a 30,000 tonne deficit in July, compared with a 105,000 tonne deficit in June, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. For the first 7 months of the year, the market was in a 126,000 tonne deficit compared with a 183,000 tonne deficit in the same period a year earlier, the ICSG said. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 108.57% to settle at 5473 while prices are down -20.25 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 628.1 and below same could see a test of 620 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 649.7, a move above could see prices testing 663.2.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 618-644.8.
* Copper weakened weighed down by aggressive monetary tightening around the world that stoked fears of a global recession and dampened metals demand.
* Economic uncertainties in top metals consumer China also weighed on sentiment after Nomura and Goldman Sachs lowered their growth forecasts
* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 2.9 % from last Friday.


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -2.59% at 266.75 as U.S. business activity contracted for a third straight month in September, though the pace of decline slowed while improving global supply chains eased inflation pressures for companies. S&P Global said its flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, rose to 49.3 this month from a final reading of 44.6 in August. The S&P Global survey, however, likely exaggerates the slowdown in economic activity. The Institute for Supply Management surveys have shown manufacturing and services industries growing steadily so far this year, challenging the notion that the economy was in recession. The global zinc market moved to a deficit of 72,800 tonnes in July from a surplus of 34,600 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a deficit of 1,400 tonnes in June. During the first seven months of 2022, ILZSG data showed a surplus of 83,000 tonnes versus a deficit of 23,000 tonnes in the same period of 2021. zinc social inventory recorded 92,700 mt as of September 23, and the low inventory offered momentum to zinc prices. SHFE/LME zinc price ratio rose to a high of 7.8, and SHFE zinc continued to outperform LME zinc. The import window of zinc concentrate opened theoretically. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 28.06% to settle at 1456 while prices are down -8.35 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 270.8 and below same could see a test of 267.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 279.6, a move above could see prices testing 285.2.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 261.3-276.7.
* Zinc prices dropped as U.S. business activity contracted for a third straight month in September
* Global zinc market flips to deficit of 72,800 T in July, says ILZSG
* SHFE/LME zinc price ratio rose to a high of 7.8, and SHFE zinc continued to outperform LME zinc.


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -1.34% at 190.8 amid slowing global growth amid rising interest rates and an escalating war in Ukraine. Investors have been on edge amid worries that aggressive monetary policy tightening would slow the global economy, dampening demand for metals. Sentiment has also been hit by Moscow's new mobilisation campaign in its invasion of Ukraine. In addition, the Fed has also lowered the economic growth rate guidance for the next three years, expecting the GDP growth rate to be 0.2% and 1.2% in 2022 and 2023 respectively, and the unemployment rate 3.8% and 4.4% respectively. The expectation implies that the Fed acknowledges a possible recession. Global primary aluminium output in August rose 3.49% year on year to 5.888 million tonnes, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. Estimated Chinese production was 3.5 million tonnes in August, the IAI said. Aluminium ingot social inventory stood at 666,000 mt as of Thursday September 22, down 9,000 mt from a week ago and 19,000 mt compared with this Monday September 19. The figure was 122,000 mt less than the same period last year and 11,000 lower than the level recorded by end August. In detail, the reductions were mainly found in Wuxi, Nanhai and Hangzhou. The arrivals in Wuxi and Gongyi were affected to varying degrees due to pandemic control measures that restricted rail transportation in Xinjian. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 47.26% to settle at 3596 while prices are down -4.75 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 191.4 and below same could see a test of 189.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 197, a move above could see prices testing 200.4.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 188-195.6.
* Aluminum dropped amid slowing global growth amid rising interest rates and an escalating war in Ukraine.
* Investors have been on edge amid worries that aggressive monetary policy tightening would slow the global economy, dampening demand for metals.
* Sentiment has also been hit by Moscow's new mobilisation campaign in its invasion of Ukraine.


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.73% at 994.4 amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. However, upside seen limited as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year we forecast production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. Mentha exports during Apr-July 2022 has dropped by 19.63 percent at 648.49 tonnes as compared to 806.87 tonnes exported during Apr-July 2021. In the month of July 2022 around 155.04 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 113.33 tonnes in June 2022 showing a rise of 36.80. In the month of July 2022 around 155.04 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 283.33 tonnes in July 2021 showing a decline of over 45.28%. In the month of June 2022 around 113.33 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 209.90 tonnes in May 2022 showing a drop of 46%. In Spot market, support seen after IMD issues Yellow Alert in key sowing area ; light-moderate rain to continue till Sept 4 impacting arrival in the mandi. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 42.6 Rupees to end at 1157.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 11.02% to settle at 1441 while prices are up 7.2 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 988.3 and below same could see a test of 982.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1004.2, a move above could see prices testing 1014.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 982.2-1014.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 42.6 Rupees to end at 1157.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil gained amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic.
* However, upside seen limited as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.
* In the month of July 2022 around 155.04 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 113.33 tonnes in June 2022 showing a rise of 36.80.



Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.53% at 6812 as sowing activities has almost completed in major growing states across India and Crop size is expected to be on par. The Product Advisory Committee (PAC) on turmeric has rejected calls for banning futures trade in the commodity, claiming that it has not found any unusual movement in its price. As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, sowing activity completed around 7,958 hectares as compared to last year same period 7,764 hectares. Sufficient stocks and good sowing reports kept turmeric prices under pressure. Turmeric exports during Apr-July 2022 has rose by 17.72 percent at 62,245.73 tonnes as compared to 52,875.44 tonnes exported during Apr-July 2021. In the month of July 2022 around 12,810.36 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 18,532.00 tonnes in June 2022 showing a drop of 30.87%. In the month of July 2022 around 12,810.36 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,826.38 tonnes in July 2021 showing a decrease of 0.12%. In the month of June 2022 around 17,532.00 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 13,206 tonnes in June 2021 showing an increase of 40.33%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7199.05 Rupees dropped -8.1 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.69% to settle at 11760 while prices are down -36 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6740 and below same could see a test of 6670 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6874, a move above could see prices testing 6938.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6670-6938.
* Turmeric dropped as sowing activities has almost completed and Crop size is expected to be on par.
* In the ongoing season, no major quality concerns were observed in the crop arrived in the Marathwada region.
* In the month of July 2022 around 12,810.36 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 18,532.00 tonnes in June 2022 showing a drop of 30.87%.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7199.05 Rupees dropped -8.1 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.5% at 24815 on profit booking after prices rose as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks in expectations of higher prices in coming months. Arrivals also observed to be less during the month. Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month supported by decrease in arrivals in Rajasthan as well as in Gujarat. Jeera exports during Apr-July 2022 has dropped by 37.28 percent at 67,057.16 tonnes as compared to 1,06 ,929.72 tonnes exported during Apr-July 2021. In the month of July 2022 around 19,866.18 tonnes jeera was exported as against 21,587.63 tonnes in June 2022 showing a drop of 7.97%. In the month of July 2022 around 19,866.18 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 24,167.64 tonnes in June 2021 showing a decrease of 17.80%. In the month of June 2022 around 21,587.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 30,989.86 tonnes in June 2021 showing a decrease of 30.34%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -61.35 Rupees to end at 24629.55 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.04% to settle at 7539 while prices are down -125 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 24610 and below same could see a test of 24410 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 25050, a move above could see prices testing 25290.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 24410-25290.
* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices rose as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks
* Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -61.35 Rupees to end at 24629.55 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.03% at 32400 on short covering after prices dropped as Cotton output is expected to rebound from last years’ experience of unseasonal rain affecting the crop. Production this year is seen at 341.9 lakh bales (170 kg) against 312.03 lakh bales last year. Record prices for cotton, topping ?1 lakh a candy (356 kg) have helped increase the area under the fibre crop by 7.5 per cent this year. Pakistan’s cotton production has shrunk 19% to 2.19 million bales till September 15, 2022 in the current season mainly due to the devastation caused by heavy rainfall and flash floods nationwide. In its monthly supply-demand report, the 2022/23 U.S. cotton projections include higher beginning stocks, production, exports and ending stocks this month, the USDA's report said. Additionally, the 2022/23 world cotton projections include higher production and ending stocks relative to last month, and lower consumption. In recent time, the heavy rainfalls and pest attacks are affecting the cotton crop. In the northern states of Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan cotton crop has been affected due to pink bollworm infestation. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -800 Rupees to end at 35590 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 6.4% to settle at 931 while prices are up 10 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 32150 and below same could see a test of 31890 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 32700, a move above could see prices testing 32990.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 31890-32990.
* Cotton gained on short covering after prices dropped as traders weighed prospects of lower demand and higher supplies.
* Growing slowdown worries due to faster rate hikes and economic uncertainty are set to put prices under pressure.
* India’s Cotton sowing gained by nearly 7.45% to 127.39 lakh hectares in 2022 against an area sown of 118.56 lakh hectares in 2021.
* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -800 Rupees to end at 35590 Rupees.

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