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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 1.49% at 50185 as support seen after the Bank of England said it would step into the bond market to stem a damaging rise in borrowing costs. The BoE said it would temporarily buy long-dated bonds - linked most closely to workers' pensions and home loans - in light of a surge in 30-year UK bond yields above 5%, their highest since 2002. The U.S. trade deficit in goods narrowed in August amid a decline in imports, which is being driven by slowing domestic demand as the Federal Reserve aggressively tightens monetary policy to tame inflation. The report from the Commerce Department suggested that trade would again contribute to gross domestic product in the third quarter. The economy could also get a lift from big gains in wholesale and retail inventories last month. China's net gold imports via Hong Kong jumped nearly 40% to an over four-year high in August, data showed, as demand continued to rebound in the world's biggest consumer of the metal. Net imports stood at their highest since June 2018 at 68.227 tonnes in August, compared with 48.773 tonnes in July, data from the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department showed. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 11.81% to settle at 17272 while prices are up 735 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 49504 and below same could see a test of 48823 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 50545, a move above could see prices testing 50905.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 48823-50905.
* Gold gains as support seen amid dollar weakness and after UK steps in to calm bonds
* Goods trade deficit falls 3.2% to $87.3 bln in August
* Wholesale inventories increase 1.3%; retail up 1.4%


Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 2.07% at 56528 as dollar seen pressure after pending home sales in the US were down 2% month-over-month in August of 2022, a third consecutive monthly decline, and worse than market forecasts of a 1.4% fall. A slew of Fed officials indicated their commitment to the fight against inflation, even at the risk of some economic pain and further market volatility. Investors also digested an OECD report where it downgraded its global economic growth forecast to 2.2% in 2023 from an earlier projection of 2.8%, citing aggressive monetary tightening in advanced economies and the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war. However, even as gold is widely considered as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainties, higher interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, while investors continue to opt for the dollar as a safe-haven asset. Wholesale inventories in the US rose by 1.3 percent month-over-month to $913.1 billion in August of 2022, picking up from a 0.6 percent rise in the prior month, preliminary estimates showed. On an annual basis, wholesale inventories grew by 25.1 percent in August, unchanged from the prior month. The trade gap on goods in the US narrowed for a fifth consecutive month to $87.3 billion in August of 2022, the lowest since October last year. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -10.43% to settle at 18180 while prices are up 1149 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 55055 and below same could see a test of 53583 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 57299, a move above could see prices testing 58071.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 53583-58071.
* Silver gained as dollar seen pressure after pending home sales in the US were down 2% month-over-month in August of 2022
* Wholesale inventories in the US rose by 1.3 percent month-over-month to $913.1 billion in August of 2022
* A slew of Fed officials indicated their commitment to the fight against inflation, even at the risk of some economic pain and further market volatility.


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 3.28% at 6685 amid concerns about global supplies as US output slows down following heavy storms in the Mexican Gulf. Prices were also buoyed by expectations OPEC+ might cut output to support prices, which overcame the impact of higher US crude inventories. The US shutdown maritime oil rigs that pump 190 thousand bpd, or 11% of the region's output, due to current storms. Major oil companies BP and Chevron were forced to close production in maritime rigs in the Mexican Gulf amid approaching storms. Iraq's oil minister said that OPEC+ is monitoring prices closely and is seeking to rebalance them. Such statements paved way for forecasts the oil cartel might cut output this year to maintain balance. Initial US data showed commercial crude stocks rose 4.2 million barrels in the week ending September 23, the fifth increase in a row, blowing past estimates of a 0.5 million barrels increase. Total stocks now are up to 443 million barrels according to the initial data, the highest since the week ending July 16, 2021, in a sign for weak demand in the US. Cushing increased by 357k Bbl, gasoline decreased by 1.048m Bbl, and distillates increased by 438k Bbl. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -32.08% to settle at 5745 while prices are up 212 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6433 and below same could see a test of 6180 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6823, a move above could see prices testing 6960.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6180-6960.
* Crude oil prices rose amid concerns about global supplies as US output slows down following heavy storms in the Mexican Gulf.
* Prices were also buoyed by expectations OPEC+ might cut output to support prices, which overcame the impact of higher US crude inventories.
* Iraq's oil minister said that OPEC+ is monitoring prices closely and is seeking to rebalance them.


Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 0.23% at 564.3 as global oil and gas prices surged and forecasts rose for U.S. gas demand over the next two weeks. There were expectations that demand would fall further in October when the Cove Point liquefied natural gas plant in Maryland shuts down for maintenance. US gas use has already been reduced for months by the ongoing outage at the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas, leaving more gas for US utilities to inject into stockpiles for next winter. Natural gas futures were still up almost 80% this year as soaring prices in Europe and Asia keep demand for US LNG exports firm. Freeport, the second-biggest U.S. LNG export plant, was consuming about 2 bcfd of gas before it shut on June 8. Freeport LNG expects the facility to return to at least partial service in early to mid-November. Despite recent price declines, U.S. futures were still up about 76% as global gas prices have soared, feeding demand for U.S. exports due to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 8.31% to settle at 6350 while prices are up 1.3 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 547.1 and below same could see a test of 530 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 575.5, a move above could see prices testing 586.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 530-586.8.
* Natural gas gained as global oil and gas prices surged and forecasts rose for U.S. gas demand over the next two weeks.
* Demand would fall further in October when the Cove Point liquefied natural gas plant in Maryland shuts down for maintenance.
* US gas use has already been reduced for months by the ongoing outage at the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas, leaving more gas for US utilities



Copper
Copper yesterday settled up by 2.37% at 641.5 as inventories of copper in China bonded warehouses continued to deplete and were last at a record low of 81,800 tonnes. However, upside seen limited as a low appetite for risky assets amid fears of weakening global economic growth weighed on prices. As global central banks hiked interest rates to curb sticky inflation, the world economic growth outlook weakened and threatened demand for metals and hurt risk sentiment. China's top copper smelters increased their floor treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) for the fourth quarter of 2022 by 32.9% from a year earlier on steady smelting demand amid an expected global increase in concentrate supply. The floor charges of $93 per tonne and 9.3 cents per pound were set at a meeting of the China Smelters Purchase Team (CSPT) held. The charges are higher than the $80 per tonne and 8 cents per pound set for the third quarter of 2022, and also up from $70 per tonne and 7 cents per pound set for the fourth quarter of 2021. Miners pay TC/RCs to smelters to process copper concentrate into refined metal, offsetting the cost of the ore. The charges fall when supply tightens and rise when more concentrate is available. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -15.2% to settle at 5250 while prices are up 14.85 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 628.1 and below same could see a test of 614.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 649, a move above could see prices testing 656.4.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 614.6-656.4.
* Copper remained supported as inventories of copper in China bonded warehouses continued to deplete and were last at a record low of 81,800 tonnes.
* However, upside seen limited as a low appetite for risky assets amid fears of weakening global economic growth
* LME copper inventories rose to 129,000 tonnes, their highest since Aug. 15.


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 1.1% at 266.4 as the global zinc market moved to a deficit of 72,800 tonnes in July from a surplus of 34,600 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a deficit of 1,400 tonnes in June. During the first seven months of 2022, ILZSG data showed a surplus of 83,000 tonnes versus a deficit of 23,000 tonnes in the same period of 2021. The People’s Bank of China stepped up cash injection towards the quarter-end by making the biggest daily offering since February 28th. The central bank said in a statement that it had injected a total of CNY 175 billion (USD 24.46 billion) via open market operations, including CNY 113 billion through 7-day reverse repos and another CNY 62 billion through the 14-day tenor, adding that the move aimed at maintaining liquidity level stable at end of the quarter. Profits earned by China's industrial firms declined by 2.1% yoy to CNY 55.25 trillion in the first eight months of the year, following a 1.1% drop in the previous period, amid strict COVID curbs, a slowdown in factory activity due to heatwaves, and a deepening property downturn. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.86% to settle at 1904 while prices are up 2.9 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 260.9 and below same could see a test of 255.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 269.5, a move above could see prices testing 272.6.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 255.4-272.6.
* Zinc gained as global zinc market flips to deficit of 72,800 T in July
* China industrial profits fall 2.1% Yoy in Jan-August
* PBoC makes largest daily cash injection in 7 months



Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.85% at 190.5 as Norwegian aluminium producer Norsk Hydro will cut output at two of its Norway plants. The Federal Reserve sticks with its aggressive tightening policy and despite efforts from the People's Bank of China to rein in the currency's weakness. The Chinese central bank will raise the foreign exchange risk reserves for financial institutions when purchasing FX through currency forwards to 20% from zero starting on September 28th. The reserve ratio has been zero since 2020. Earlier in September, the PBOC announced it will lower the amount of foreign exchange that financial institutions must hold as reserves earlier this month. A gloomy domestic outlook also weighed on China’s currency, with Nomura and Goldman Sachs slashing their 2023 economic growth forecast for China sharply, predicting Beijing will stick to its strict zero-COVID strategy well into next year. Global primary aluminium output in August rose 3.49% year on year to 5.888 million tonnes, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. Estimated Chinese production was 3.5 million tonnes in August, the IAI said. China's aluminium imports in August dropped 19% from a year earlier, customs data showed, reflecting lowered import appetite amid record-high domestic production and tight overseas supply. The country brought in 200,440 tonnes of unwrought aluminium and products, including primary metal and unwrought, alloyed aluminium last month, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.21% to settle at 4643 while prices are up 1.6 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 188 and below same could see a test of 185.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 192.1, a move above could see prices testing 193.5.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 185.3-193.5.
* Aluminum gains as Norwegian aluminium producer Norsk Hydro will cut output at two of its Norway plants
* Global aluminium output rises 3.49% year on year in August – IAI
* China's August aluminium imports fall 19% on year as domestic output rises


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.61% at 998.9 amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. However, upside seen limited as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year we forecast production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. Mentha exports during Apr-July 2022 has dropped by 19.63 percent at 648.49 tonnes as compared to 806.87 tonnes exported during Apr-July 2021. In the month of July 2022 around 155.04 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 113.33 tonnes in June 2022 showing a rise of 36.80. In the month of July 2022 around 155.04 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 283.33 tonnes in July 2021 showing a decline of over 45.28%. In the month of June 2022 around 113.33 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 209.90 tonnes in May 2022 showing a drop of 46%. In Spot market, support seen after IMD issues Yellow Alert in key sowing area ; light-moderate rain to continue till Sept 4 impacting arrival in the mandi. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 5.4 Rupees to end at 1135.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 1.74% to settle at 1461 while prices are up 6.1 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 992.9 and below same could see a test of 987 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1003.3, a move above could see prices testing 1007.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 987-1007.8.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 5.4 Rupees to end at 1135.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil gained amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic.
* However, upside seen limited as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.
* In the month of July 2022 around 155.04 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 113.33 tonnes in June 2022 showing a rise of 36.80.


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.23% at 6816 as sowing activities has almost completed in major growing states across India and Crop size is expected to be on par. The Product Advisory Committee (PAC) on turmeric has rejected calls for banning futures trade in the commodity, claiming that it has not found any unusual movement in its price. As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, sowing activity completed around 7,958 hectares as compared to last year same period 7,764 hectares. Sufficient stocks and good sowing reports kept turmeric prices under pressure. Turmeric exports during Apr-July 2022 has rose by 17.72 percent at 62,245.73 tonnes as compared to 52,875.44 tonnes exported during Apr-July 2021. In the month of July 2022 around 12,810.36 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 18,532.00 tonnes in June 2022 showing a drop of 30.87%. In the month of July 2022 around 12,810.36 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,826.38 tonnes in July 2021 showing a decrease of 0.12%. In the month of June 2022 around 17,532.00 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 13,206 tonnes in June 2021 showing an increase of 40.33%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7110.6 Rupees dropped -88.8 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.1% to settle at 11395 while prices are down -16 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6778 and below same could see a test of 6740 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6860, a move above could see prices testing 6904.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6740-6904.
* Turmeric prices seen pressured as sowing activities has almost completed and Crop size is expected to be on par.
* In the ongoing season, no major quality concerns were observed in the crop arrived in the Marathwada region.
* In the month of July 2022 around 12,810.36 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 18,532.00 tonnes in June 2022 showing a drop of 30.87%.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7110.6 Rupees dropped -88.8 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -1.85% at 24405 on profit booking after prices support seen as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks in expectations of higher prices in coming months. Arrivals also observed to be less during the month. Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month supported by decrease in arrivals in Rajasthan as well as in Gujarat. Jeera exports during Apr-July 2022 has dropped by 37.28 percent at 67,057.16 tonnes as compared to 1,06 ,929.72 tonnes exported during Apr-July 2021. In the month of July 2022 around 19,866.18 tonnes jeera was exported as against 21,587.63 tonnes in June 2022 showing a drop of 7.97%. In the month of July 2022 around 19,866.18 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 24,167.64 tonnes in June 2021 showing a decrease of 17.80%. In the month of June 2022 around 21,587.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 30,989.86 tonnes in June 2021 showing a decrease of 30.34%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -168.6 Rupees to end at 24460.95 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.92% to settle at 7212 while prices are down -460 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 24175 and below same could see a test of 23940 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 24780, a move above could see prices testing 25150.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 23940-25150.
* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices support seen as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks
* Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -168.6 Rupees to end at 24460.95 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -1.67% at 31240 as Cotton output is expected to rebound from last years’ experience of unseasonal rain affecting the crop. Production this year is seen at 341.9 lakh bales (170 kg) against 312.03 lakh bales last year. Record prices for cotton, topping ?1 lakh a candy (356 kg) have helped increase the area under the fibre crop by 7.5 per cent this year. Pakistan’s cotton production has shrunk 19% to 2.19 million bales till September 15, 2022 in the current season mainly due to the devastation caused by heavy rainfall and flash floods nationwide. In its monthly supply-demand report, the 2022/23 U.S. cotton projections include higher beginning stocks, production, exports and ending stocks this month, the USDA's report said. Additionally, the 2022/23 world cotton projections include higher production and ending stocks relative to last month, and lower consumption. In recent time, the heavy rainfalls and pest attacks are affecting the cotton crop. In the northern states of Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan cotton crop has been affected due to pink bollworm infestation. In spot market, Cotton gained by 100 Rupees to end at 35370 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.69% to settle at 991 while prices are down -530 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 30710 and below same could see a test of 30180 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 31680, a move above could see prices testing 32120.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 30180-32120.
* Cotton prices dropped as traders weighed prospects of lower demand and higher supplies.
* Growing slowdown worries due to faster rate hikes and economic uncertainty are set to put prices under pressure.
* India’s Cotton sowing gained by nearly 7.45% to 127.39 lakh hectares in 2022 against an area sown of 118.56 lakh hectares in 2021.
* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 100 Rupees to end at 35370 Rupees.

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