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The National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) is expecting India’s gross domestic product (GDP) to grow 11.5 percent in Q1 (first quarter) and 8.4-10.1 per cent for the whole year 2021–22. According to NCAER's estimates, the economic growth had contracted by 7.3 percent during 2020-21. It has also pitched for strong fiscal support to push economic growth. However, these high growth rates are also a reflection of strong base effect since 2021-22:Q1 follows the very steep decline in 2020-21:Q1. At the end of 2021-22 GDP, on constant prices, would still be about the same as Rs 146 trillion (Rs 146 lakh crore) as in 2019-20.

The report further said the second COVID-19 wave, four times greater in ferocity as compared to the first wave in terms of number of cases and deaths, has further disrupted the growth process, which had already been severely damaged by the first wave. High-frequency indicators show a sharp decline in economic activity during April and May 2021, the peak of the second COVID-19 wave, though there are some indicators of recovery in June as unlocking proceeds.

To restore the growth process after this situation for two consecutive years, NCAER said the process now needs a strong positive push, and adding that fortunately, export growth is projected to remain buoyant with recovery in the global economy. It said this, combined with a strong expansionary macroeconomic policy thrust, could help revive normal growth.