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The Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce & Industry (FICCI) in its latest Economic Outlook Survey has stated that India’s GDP is expected to grow at 9.1 per cent in 2021-22 as economic recovery, post the second wave of the pandemic, seems to be holding ground. It also noted that the ongoing festive season would support this momentum. However, the industry body cautioned that a likely surge in people’s movement during Diwali can lead to a rise in the number of COVID cases again.

The chamber said ‘the latest round of Ficci’s Economic Outlook Survey has put forth an annual median GDP growth forecast for 2021-22 at 9.1 per cent. This marks a marginal improvement from the growth projection of 9 per cent recorded in the previous survey round (July 2021)’. It added pick-up in monsoon rains in the latter part of the season and subsequent increase in kharif acreage is likely to keep growth expectations of the agriculture sector upbeat. The survey was conducted in September 2021 and drew responses from leading economists representing the industry, banking and financial services sector.

The industry body said ‘the second quarter GDP data and the upcoming festive season should give a clearer idea of where we are headed on the recovery path and how the demand situation is panning out’. With regard to heading back to the process of normalization, the survey said it was largely felt that the Reserve Bank may indicate a change of stance from accommodative to neutral in the February 2022 policy meeting. It noted ‘however, a hike in the repo rate only looks imminent in the next fiscal year (April 2022). Also, the path towards positive real interest rates is expected to be a staggered one. Much would be contingent on the build-up in domestic price levels and the extent of tapering by the Federal Reserve’.