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Indian markets could open flat to mildly lower, in line with largely negative Asian markets today and mixed US markets on Monday..…HDFC Securities

U.S. stock indexes closed mostly higher, leaving the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite with fresh intraday and all-time closing records, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost ground as shares of Boeing Co. and Chevron Corp. slumped. Facebook Inc. shares surged to a market cap above $1 trillion for the first time ever, after a federal court on Monday dismissed the Federal Trade Commission’s antitrust lawsuit that would have split up the social-networking giant.

The focus, in the last trading days of June, remained on quarterend positioning, discussions surrounding infrastructure and the outlook for the economy’s reopening phase as market participants watch COVID variants. The 10-year Treasury yield sank ~6 bps to 1.47%.

On the economic front, investor attention will be focused on consumer confidence data, a private jobs report and a crucial monthly employment report due later this week.

S&P Global cut its growth forecasts for some of Asia's top economies including India, the Philippines and Malaysia on Monday, offsetting upgrades to China and South Africa and much of Latin America. The estimates, which feed into S&P's closelyfollowed sovereign ratings, saw India's growth projection chopped to 9.5% from 11% due to its COVID-19 outbreak. The top risk facing emerging market economies (EMs) is a slower-thanexpected rollout of the vaccines. The second big risk facing emerging economies, it said, was if strong U.S. growth and inflation cause an early tightening of U.S. monetary policy which then pushes up the dollar and makes servicing debt denominated in the U.S. currency more costly.

India will extend federal guarantees on bank loans to small businesses and the health and tourism sectors to help them through the COVID-19 pandemic, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Monday. Most of the fiscal support is still below the line and in the form of loan guarantees, and not direct stimulus. Industry leaders and economists said the new loan guarantees, amounting to $35 billion, may provide some temporary relief but would not be sufficient to boost economic growth.

Shares in Asia-Pacific fell in Tuesday morning trade despite gains overnight on Wall Street that saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite touching fresh record closing highs after the reflation trade fizzled in the U.S. amid new travel curbs in some parts of the world.

Indian benchmark equity indices ended lower on June 28 after a higher opening and making a fresh intra day all time high. At close, the Nifty was down 45.70 points or 0.29% at 15814.70.

Nifty shifted to higher opening and lower closing once again. Very low volumes suggest low participation from institutions even as they are unsure of the direction of the markets which has also led to lower volatility. This has resulted in lower trading interest. The Nifty has formed an engulfing Top pattern. An opening below today’s low could accelerate the downtrend. 15702-15915 could be range for the near term for Nifty.

Daily Technical View on Nifty

Nifty : Trading in Range

Yesterday, Nifty registered new all time high at 15915 but failed to sustain at higher levels. Nifty continued to consolidate in the tight range of 15700-15900. This range has been holding for last 5 consecutive session Midcap and Smallcap Indices continued to outperform the Nifty. Nifty ended forming bearish belt hold and bearish engulfing candlestick pattern on the daily chart. Bearish implication of the same would turn active below yesterday’s low of 15792. We can expect deeper correction, if Nifty breaks and sustains below 15792 Yesterday’s high of 15915 would act as a resistance for the day. Nifty PSU Bank, Metal and Pharma Indices closed on a strong wicket. Nifty has been finding support at 20 days EMA. At present 20 days EMA is placed at 15665.

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